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Chuyên Đề Nhóm - nanglucctnhtm
Chuyên Đề Nhóm - nanglucctnhtm
M u:
Nhn chung, khng hong ti chnh 2007-2010 nh hng nhiu nn kinh t trn th
gii v nn kinh t Vit Nam. H thng NHTM chu tc ng thng qua cc bin s
kinh t v m nh lm pht v li sut. Chnh ph, NHTW iu hnh nn kinh t
bng cc chnh sch kinh t v chnh sch tin t gip nn kinh t gim thiu cc kh
khn t khng hong ti chnh.
Cu trc ca chuyn bao gm 3 Chng. Chng I trnh by khi qut cc vn
l lun c bn v nng lc cnh tranh v qun tr /qun tr ri ro NHTM thi k
khng hong. Chng II trnh by thc trng nng lc cnh tranh v ri ro NHTM.
Chng III s trnh by tm tt cc gii php lin quan v tho lun chnh sch.
Chng I : L lun c bn
1. Khi nim khng hong kinh t - ti chnh
y l 1 s kin bt n v kinh t hay v ti chnh hay v tin t ti 1 quc gia c
mc hi nhp v ton cu ha cao (v d: Hoa K) dn n s sp ca cc
th trng ti chnh hay cc ch th tham gia, tht nghip v lm pht, ng thi
lm lan trun tc ng khng hong n cc nc khc.
V d: khng hong ti chnh 2007-2008 l 1 trong cc cuc khng hong th gii
k t i suy thoi 1930s v khng hong tin t Thi Lan 1997-1999.
H qu ca khng hong kinh t
Cc h qu bao gm:
-
Ring h thng ti chnh ngn hng cng b tc ng gin tip nhng khng c
hu qu nng n do cc NHTM c trang b vn vng chc. Tc ng gin tip
l do s suy gim cc lung vn u t nc ngoi v p lc thanh khon ln cc
t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng. Tuy nhin cui nm 2011 u nm 2012 1 s
NHTM buc phi tm kim c hi M&A trnh ri ro thanh khon v tng nng
lc cnh tranh.
Ph lc 1 cho thy, Vit nam, trong giai on khng hong v hu khng hong
2007-2011, lm pht Vit nam cao nht vo thi im nm 2008 mc hn
19% sau lm pht gim li vo nm 2009 xung cn mc 6,5%, nhng li tng
tr li vo nm 2010 hn 11% v cao hn vo nm 2011 mc 18% v gim li
vo nm 2012 mc 7%.
Nu so snh vi India, ph lc 2 cho thy, t l lm pht giai on 2007-2013
trong lm pht tng ln sau nm 2008 ln hn 10%, sau gim dn vo cui
nm 2009 u nm 2010, sau tng tr li t nm 2010 mc hn 10%. Tuy
nhin n cui nm 2012 u 2013, lm pht gim xung thp hn 6%.
Ngoi ra, Gi xng du, gas gia tng, chi ph u vo tng (LS vay) do ngun vn
ngy cng khan him, dn n gi bn ngy cng tng, xut hin lm pht trong
nc 2 ch s. TTCK nh tr, do cha hon thin, thiu h tr, chm hi phc
(tuy nhin, c phc hi nh u nm 2012)
5. Nng lc qun tr NHTM VN
5.1 u im trong qun tr NHTM VN
H thng NHTM VN
2011
Cui 2012
T l n xu
3,10%
4,90%
103,23%
91,13%
9,59%
Thiu ng b
Thiu h thng
Company stock
code
ACB
CTG
EIB
HBB
MBB
NVB
SHB
STB
Equity beta
0,7874
0,5540
0,3847
0,1335
0,0722
0,0211
1,0038
0,7395
Financial
leverage
95,2%
94,4%
90,5%
89,7%
92,5%
87,7%
91,8%
90,3%
VCB
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Company stock
code
ACB
CTG
EIB
HBB
MBB
NVB
SHB
STB
VCB
0,4083
0,0299
92,7%
0,7874
0,5540
0,3847
0,1262
0,0681
0,0189
1,0038
0,7395
0,4083
Financial
leverage
95,2%
94,4%
90,5%
89,7%
92,5%
87,7%
91,8%
90,3%
92,7%
t = 20%
Order
No.
Beta
<0
0<beta<1
Beta > 1
total
No. of firms
0
8
1
9
Equity beta
Financial leverage
(average)
0,00%
91,61%
91,79%
91,6%
Ratio
0%
25%
3%
28%
Nhn xt:
th 1 trn cho thy: Khi thu sut gi nh thay i mc 20% v 25%, h s beta
VCSH gim r rt khi thu sut gim (20%), tuy nhin h s beta tng TS gn nh
khng thay i (0,034 v 0,035).
Ph lc:
Ph lc 1: Lm pht Vit Nam 2004-2012 (ngun: Tng Cc Thng k)
Year
Lm
pht
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
9,5
8,4
6,6
12,6
19,9
6,5
11,8
18,1
Ph lc 2: T l lm pht India