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Fleet
Fleet
Research and analysis from Flightglobal Insight and Achieving the Difference
background
In the first half of 2011, Flightglobal published
its first forecast report. Flightglobal continues to
expand its growing store of information and is
now arguably among the worlds most complete
set of aviation statistics anywhere.
In partnership with Clive Lewis of the Achieving
the Difference marketing practive, further
refinements have been made to the forecasting
model and the latest installment (2012-H1) now
includes an improved freighter forecast.
Clive brings with him decades of forecasting
experience within the commercial aerospace
sector. Working together with the Flightglobal
Insight research team, he has painstakingly
combined Flightglobals data resource with
his expertise in developing computer-based
forecasting tools.
The resulting forecasting model spent a year in
the making. Much time was invested in ensuring
that the methodology was robust, including
some sterling work by the UKs Bristol Business
School in proving the model against decades
worth of data.
At the heart of the forecast lies the Pachinko
Probability Tree. Like the ball-bearings of the
Japanese arcade game after which it is named,
individual aircraft drop through this tree-like
predictive model based on over 800,000 historic
observations, assigning probabilities to which
way they will fall in terms of service, storage or
migration between world regions.
Total fleet size is predicted by demand-side
analysis based on the relationship between fleet
capacity and economic growth, the latter based
on predictions from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF).
in this report
lPassenger and freighter demand
including:
Fleet
size
Deliveries
Order
backlog
Retirements
lAnalysis divided in six world regions
plus a separate section on China
lCovers all modern commercial
airliners over 20-seats
lDetailed forecasts for aircraft
categories down to model series
Updated twice a year, the report is a set of 20year predictions which are robustly tested and
truly independent.
Headlines
Active fleet development
active fleet regional split in 2031
7%
7%
Africa
Asia-Pacific (ex China)
22%
24%
China
Europe
Middle East
6%
North America
15%
South America
19%
37%
Deliveries
narrowbody deliveries by manufacturer
Number of deliveries
1,000
Comac C919
600
400
200
0
2012
15%
Irkut MS-21
800
2017
2022
2027
Year ending
Irkut MS-21
Boeing 737
Comac C919
Bombardier CSeries
Retirements
58%
Widebody Jet
Narrowbody Jet
300
200
100
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
Year ending
Widebody Jet
Regional Jet
Narrowbody Jet
Turboprop
Survivors
75%
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
Year ending
Widebody Jet
Regional Jet
Turboprop
Narrowbody Jet
Focus on China
7,000
45,000
6,000
40,000
5,000
missing
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1992
Number of aircraft
0
2002
2012
2022
Year ending
451+ seats
121-200 seats
351-450 seats
91-120 seats
251-350 seats
51-90 seats
201-250 seats
20-50 seats
GDP
61%
of the commercial
aircraft in China will be
451+ seats
351-450seat
seats category by the end
in the 121-200
251-350 seats
of the forecast
period.
201-250 seats
121-200 seats
91-120 seats
51-90of
seats the fleet in the 121-200 seat
The growth
20-50 seats
category has
been the strongest of any in the
region, and is closely correlated with the growth
of Chinas GDP. This relationship is reduced
slightly going forward, because the order book
does not support the continuation of such
correlated growth. There has been some slow
growth in the average seats per aircraft. This is
a global trend and is predicted to continue over
the forecast period.
freighter market
65%
Capacity (tonnes)
300,000
250,000
Mediumcapacity
Widebody 40-72.5
of freighter
bytons
2031 is
Medium
Body 33-60
tons
projected
toStandard
be large
widebodies.
200,000
150,000
tons
Since Utility
the0-12.5
mid-1990s,
an increasing proportion
of capacity has been delivered by large aircraft.
In 1980, the Large Widebody share of capacity
was 30%. This had increased to 36% by 1990,
50% in 2000 and 60% in 2010, and is predicted
to increase further, to 65%, by 2031.
100,000
50,000
0
1992
2002
2012
2022
Year ending
Large Widebody 72.5-150 tonnes
Contents
global Summary
regional analysis
Africa | Asia-Pacific | China | Europe | Middle East |
North America | South America
market group analysis
Turboprops | Regional jets | Narrowbody jets |
Widebody jets
manufacturers and programmes
Airbus | ATR | Boeing | Bombardier | Comac |
Embraer | Mitsubishi | United Aircraft Corporation
Retirement forecast
Retirements | Conversions | Survivors
Independent analysis...
lfrom trusted brands
lbased on world leading data
lwith a robust methodology
...informing your business
lthrough detailed analysis
lwith expert commentary
lplus full data tables in Excel
methodology
ASSUMPTIONS
GLOSSARY
Appendices
For further details, contact Daniel Sedman (Sales Manager Europe) at:
Tel: +44 208 652 3914
Email: daniel.sedman@flightglobal.com
SUMMARY | Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 7