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METODO DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS

SEGN METODO ARITMETICO

Y =a+bX

a+b

[ ] [ ]
X

=0

[ ] [ ] [ ]
X
n

+b

X2
n

XY
=0
n

Reemplazando:

a+b 620.66613.064=0
a 620.666+b 3887388000=0

a=47.425
b=0.0003218
SEGN METODO GEOMETRICO

Y =a ebX

A+B

[ ] [ ]

A+B

[ ][

X2
X

LogY
=0
n

XLogY
X

a=10 A
b=

B
log e

Reemplazando:

A + B 620.6661.0939=0
A + B 626.3231.0884=0

A=1.8248

=0

B=0.000006923

a=10 A =66.795
b=

AOS
DESPU
S DEL
ULTIM
O
CENSO
0
10
20

B
=0.00001594
log e

POBLACION

CRECIMIENTO POR
DECADA %

INCREMENTO POR
DECADA

ARITMETI
CO

GEOMETRI
CO

ARITMETI
CO

GEOMETRI
CO

ARITMETI
CO

GEOMETRI
CO

782
845
956

782
896
968

8.80
5.40

9.86
8.16

10.560
7.050

11.832
10.654

POBL 2024 = 845 HAB (ART)

POBL 2024 = 896 HAB (GEO)
POBL 2034 = 956 HAB (ART)
POBL 2034 = 968 HAB (GEO)

METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES

Pz =Pn +m P 1+

m(m1)( P 2)
2

P 1=

P nP1 782542
=
=13.333
Z1
41

P 2=

DP =

m=

Z2

4
=2.000
42

20342007
=7.54
7.58

Pn=782

Reemplazando en la primera frmula:

Pz =782+7.54(13.333)+
P2034 =945.325 HAB

7.54(7.541)(2.000)
2