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3A - Doctor Who T3 Ca1 - TQ Pha Gia NDT
3A - Doctor Who T3 Ca1 - TQ Pha Gia NDT
B MN TI CHINH QUC T
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CHU 3A:
TRUNG QUC PHA GIA NG NHN DN T
QUAN IM CUA MY
Muc luc
1.2
1.3
1.4
Nguyn nhn.........................................................................................................5
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.2
Din bin..............................................................................................................8
2.3
2.3.1
2.3.2
3. Kt lu n..................................................................................................................... 15
4. Ti li u tham khao.....................................................................................................16
Biu 2: Ty l tng
trng GDP cua Trung Quc trong nhng nm gn y
Biu 3: Din bin ch s Shanghai Composite cua Trung Quc t thang 1/2015 n
thang 9/2015
Ngun: Tradingeconomics.com
Bn canh o l c ri ca thi trng chng khoan Trung Quc khi im lin tuc giam
manh manh nht k t nm 2007 tr lai y, lm cho gia hng hoa giam xung mc
cha tng co t nm 1999 tr lai y, thi trng cac nc trong khu vc cng nh th
gii cng phai chiu mt s anh hng khng h nh, gy ra hoang loan ton cu. Tinh
n ngy 11/09, ch s Shanghai Composite bc hi hn 38% so vi mc nh xac lp
ngy 12/06.
1.3 Ty l lam phat lin tuc bin ng
cac nc chu u, cac bt n chu A, hay vn gia du giam khin hng loat cac nn
kinh t chao ao; rt nhiu cac quc gia l i tac thng mai ca Trung Quc bi anh
hng, qua o tac ng tiu cc n xut khu ca nc ny.
Biu 6: Kim ngach xut khu hang thang cua Trung Quc t 4/2014 n 5/2015
(n vi: trm triu USD)
Ngun: tradingeconomics.com
Co th thy, kim ngach xut khu ca Trung Quc nm 2015 giam manh khi ch at
144,569 ty USD tai thi im thang 4/2015, giam xp x 83 ty USD (tng ng vi
mc 36%) so vi u nm v giam 44 ty USD (tng ng 23%) so vi cung k nm
trc. Khng nhng th, s li u gn y nht cng cho bit, trong thang 7/2015, xut
khu ca Trung Quc lai tip tuc giam 8%.
Do o, chinh ph Trung Quc tuyn b Trung Quc cn tha lng Nhn dn t tin ti
t do hoa v cng phuc hi xut khu. Vic lm suy yu ng nhn dn t s lm san
phm xut khu tr nn r hn v gip cac cng ty xut khu tng tinh canh tranh trn
cac thi trng quc t. Trong khi o, du Trung Quc phai kt hp ca ct giam li sut
v kich thich ti chinh thc y tng trng nhng khng mang lai nhiu kt qua nh
mong i. V vy, trong hon canh ny, vi c Trung Quc pha gia ng tin ca chinh
mnh l mt cach thao g kho khn trc mt cho lnh vc xut khu noi ring v nn
kinh t noi chung.
6
Biu 7. D tr ngoai hi hang thang cua Trung Quc giai oan 8/2010-7/2015
Ngun: Bloomberg
Trung Quc co th cn iu chnh thm ngun d tr ngoai hi nhm ch ng ng nhn
dn t trong trng hp ng tin ny bin ng bt thng. Nu d tr ngoai hi thu
hp, Trung Quc co th phai ban ra trai phiu quc t thu v ngoai t, iu ny s
khin chi phi huy ng vn ton cu tr nn t hn.
2.2 Din bin
Ngy 11/8/2015, Ngn hng Trung ng Trung Quc bt ng giam ty gia hi oai ti
1,9%. y l t giam su nht trong 20 nm tr lai y, mc 6,2298 NDT/USD, giam
1,86% so mc 6,1162 NDT/USD ca ngy 10/8/2015.
Tip o, ngy 12/8, NDT tip tuc mt gia 1,6% khin gia tri ng tin ny ri xung mc
thp nht trong 4 nm qua.
Ngy 13/8, ng NDT ngy th ba lin tip mt gia manh, vi mc 6,4010 NDT/USD.
Sang ngy 14/8, sau ba ngy lin tip giam, Ngn hng Trung ng Trung Quc iu
chnh tng ty gia ng NDT so vi ng USD ln 0,05%, ln 6,3975 NDT/USD.
2.3
Biu 9: Din bin ch s Shanghai Composite cua Trung Quc trong thang 8/2015
Ngun: Tradingeconomics.com
Cac ch s khac trn thi trng Indonexia, Philipin, Vit Nam cng chiu chung tac ng
giam im. Ch s Nikkei 225 ca nn kinh t ln Nht Ban cng giam 0.23% trong u
phin giao dich ngy 11/08 v tip tuc giam vo hm 12/08 xung mc 20329.77, giam
gn 1.9% so vi ngy 11. Ngy 13/08, Nikkei 225 tng thm hn 250 im ln
20595.55 im.
9
Biu 10: Din bin ch s chng khoan cua Nht Ban, Vit Nam, Indonesia,
Thai Lan, Philippines trong thang 8/2015 Ngun: Bloomberg
Ch s MSCI ca chu A cng chiu tac ng giam im ngay tai u tin giao dich ngy
11/08 giam khoang 0.3%. Phin giam im manh nht l ngy 12/08 t mc 916.06 hm
11/08 xung mc 893.76. V t ngy 13/08, ch s MSCI cng bt u tng im tr lai
ln mc 899.68 vo hm 14/08.
Ngun: Bloomberg
Thi trng chng khoan Chu u cng chiu tac ng khng h nh t vic pha gia nhn
dn t nht l c phiu ca mt s cng ty xa x. Gia c phiu ca hng xe c BWV
giam 4% v ca hng hiu Phap LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE mt 5.4%
trong phin ngy 11/08. Theo s liu ca Bloomberg, trong phin giao dich t ngy 11
n 13/08/2015, ch s DAX ca thi trng c giam manh nht tai chu u t
11604.78 im ngy 10 xung 10924.61 im vo hm 12/08.
2.3.1.2 Nguy c cu c chin tin t
Vic nhn dn t xung gia cng tac ng tiu cc n nhiu ng tin ca cac quc gia
khac trong khu vc giam gia theo do tm l thi trng v co nguy c gy ra mt cuc
chin tin t. Mt phn l do s iu chnh ca NHTW mt s nc nhm k vng vo
ng thai ca cac nc khac thc y xut khu trong cuc chin hng gia r. Trong
nhng ngy t 10-14/08/2015, ng Hryvnia ca Ukraina l ng tin giam gia manh
nht vi gn 4.3% sau o l ng Ringgit ca Malaysia vi hn 3.7% cn ng Nhn dn
t ng vi tri th 3 v giam khoang 2,8%. Cac nc nh Th Nh K, n ,
Indonexia, Nam Phi cng co ng tin quc gia giam trong khoang t 1.5% n 2.5%.
11
Biu 13: Ty trong n tinh theo GDP nm 2014 cua mt s quc gia
Ngun: Bloomberg
12
Biu 14: Can cn thng mai cua My t thang 9/2014 n thang 8/2015
(n vi: triu USD) Ngun: tradingeconomics.com
Cac nh u t cng lo ngai rng vic c phiu ca My giam manh hm 11/8 cng ko
theo s sut giam ca cac nh xut khu ln khac. Trn l thuyt, mt ng nhn dn t
yu co th lm giam san lng xut khu ca hng hoa My vo Trung Quc, vn giam
5% tinh n thang 6.
Ko theo o l hiu ng chng khoan My giam sau t ban thao c phiu ln nht trong
hn hai thang khi ng USD tng trng manh, vic phuc hi nh ca nhom ngnh ngn
hng dng nh l bt lc khi m c phiu ca nhom ngnh cng ngh v Hng tiu
dung u sut giam manh.
13
Nhiu c phiu tru ct trn TTCK My giam d di: General Electric, Pepsi co lc rt
hn 20%. Facebook, Apple,... giam trn di 10%; Microsoft giam 5,8%...Tai ph Wall,
2 ch s quan trng u bi anh hng nng l ch s Dow Jones giam 1,2% v ch s S&P
500 giam 1%.
Biu 15: Din bin ch s Dow Jones trong thang 8/2015 va thang 9/2015
Ngun: tradingeconomics.com
14
Biu 16: Ch s S&P 500 cua thi trng Ph Wall xung thp nht trong vong 6
thang trong phin giao dich m 20/8
Ngun: Bloomberg
Phan ng trc ng thai pha gia ng nhn dn t ca Trung Quc, My lin tuc ch
trich quc gia ny v yu cu chinh quyn ca Tng thng Barack Obama a Trung
Quc vo danh sach quc gia thao tng tin t. Cac chuyn gia cho rng, h tr xut khu
khng cn l muc ich ln nht khi Trung Quc ha gia ng Nhn dn t. Phn tich ca
gii chuyn gia ch ra rng, nguyn nhn thc s ng sau ng thai pha gia ng ni t
ny l do vic cng b s liu xut khu ca Trung Quc v vic Quy Tin t Quc t
(IMF) t chi a ng NDT vo gi tin d tr quc t, tuy nhin bt k bt k mc
no, vi c pha gia s khng thc s giai quyt c cac vn ca kinh t Trung Quc.
Vi c pha gia s tip tuc y cng nhiu vn ra khi Trung Quc, lm gia tng sc p
giam gia ln ng nhn dn t. Pha gia mc 2 phn trm s lm Ngn hng Nhn dn
Trung Quc kho khn hn trong vic h tr ng nhn dn t khi bi mt gia thm.
Ngoi ra, s ni ln ca nhn dn t vi vai tr l mt la chn ang tin cy thay th cho
ng USD s anh hng n sc manh ca nc My. 45% cac giao dich xuyn bin gii
trn th gii hin nay s dung USD lm ng tin thanh toan. Bi vy bt c ngn hng
no co hoat ng kinh doanh quc t u phai tham gia vo h thng ngn hng ca My.
Do o, li th chinh tri ca My s suy yu nu ng nhn dn t vn ra ton cu. Trong
khi o th Trung Quc hin ang tin gn n vic hon tt mt h thng thanh toan bng
nhn dn t xuyn bin gii. Mc du c m ta n gian l mt nn tang thc y giao
dich, h thng ny rt li hai v trong tng lai s cho php cac ngn hng v cng ty
chuyn tin i khp th gii qua mt h thng hon ton khng phu thuc vo USD. My
s nhn thy rt kho theo di ai ang s dung h thng thanh toan quc t ca Trung
Quc.
15
Vi c Trung Quc pha gia ng Nhn dn t cng lm FED gia tng ap lc tr hon vi c
tng li sut, v li sut tng s cng lm cho ng USD tng gia v cac cng ty xut khu
ca My km canh tranh hn.
3. KT LUN
Vi muc ich h tr xut khu nhm thc y nn kinh t, v a ng Nhn dn t tr
thnh ng tin d tr quc t, Trung Quc pha gia manh ng tin ca mnh trong
thang 8/2015. iu ny co tac ng tiu cc n nn kinh t ton cu, trong o co My
vi anh hng lm tng thm hut thng mai. Do o, My co nhng ng thai yu cu
Trung Quc phai nng gia ng Nhn dn t so vi USD.
16
http://nguyentandung.org/tac-dong-cua-pha-gia-nhan-dan-te-toi-my-va-the-gioi.html
7. V
sao
TQ
pha
gia
ng
nhn
dn
t ? ,
BBC,
2015
http://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/business/2015/08/150811_china_slowdown_forces_deva
luation
8. 6 cu hi sau khi Nhn dn t pha gia ky luc, Vneconomy, 2015
http://vneconomy.vn/the-gioi/6-cau-hoi-sau-khi-nhan-dan-te-pha-gia-ky-luc20150812113344361.htm
9. Pha gia NDT co gip Trung Quc giai quyt mi vic?, vnmedia.vn, 2015
http://vnmedia.vn/bds-tai-chinh/tai-chinh/201508/pha-gia-ndt-co-giup-trung-quoc-giaiquyet-moi-viec-481135/
10. 3 l do tai sao Trung Quc pha gia ng nhn dn t, cafebiz.vn, 2015
http://cafebiz.vn/thi-truong/3-ly-do-tai-sao-trung-quoc-pha-gia-dong-nhan-dan-te20150812142851392.chn
11. Tun t 10-14/8: VND giam gn 1,5% sau vu pha gia Nhn dn t, ndt.vn, 2015
http://ndh.vn/tuan-tu-10-14-8-vnd-giam-gan-1-5-sau-vu-pha-gia-nhan-dan-te2015081709064319p4c149.news
12. Chng khoan Trung Quc giam hn 6%, ndt.vn, 2015
18
http://ndh.vn/chung-khoan-trung-quoc-giam-hon-6--20150818024650108p4c146.news
13. chng khoan Chu A giam sau quyt inh pha gia Nhn nhn t
http://ndh.vn/chung-khoan-chau-a-giam-sau-quyet-dinh-pha-gia-nhan-nhan-te2015081111159348p4c146.news
14. Chinas devaluation of yuan prompts outcry from U.S. politicians on both sides, The
Washington post, 2015
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/china-devalues-yuan-rattling-globalfinancial-markets/2015/08/11/5f40ac3c-4046-11e5-9561-4b3dc93e3b9a_story.html
15.
16.
Bloomberg.com
17.
Tradingeconomics.com
19