Ecosystem Vulnerability Derived from Two Climate Change Scenarios

A2 Scenario

B1 Scenario

Carson National Forest

NEW MEXICO

Top 50%
Moderate
Extreme

Bottom 50%
0

Extreme

300 Miles

Author: Matthew Whittle

mw0038@uah.edu
Date: 10/15/2015

ESS 414 - Geospatial Applications

Assignment 4 - Ecosystem Vulnerability

Moderate

300 Miles

These two scenarios were calculated by multiplying the high temperature by high precipitation departure (A2), and low temperature by
low precipitation departure (B1). The colors displayed for A2 exemplify the greatest annual change for temperature and precipitation by the
2080's. The B1 map highlights the lowest case scenario for both those factors during the same timeframe. Carson National Forest in New
Mexico, is one of the many protected land areas that will be under distress from the A2 scenario. This area is home to three endangered
species: Southwest Willow Flycatcher, Bald Eagle, and Mexican Spotted Owl. All three birds will be receptive to loss of habitat in the Carson
National Forest. If A2 occurs, these birds will likely migrate to northern Colorado. However, the B1 scenario will not have a profound effect
on the endangered birds as their ecosystem will not be vulnerable to high temperature and precipitation departure. Overall, many national
forests and parks throughout the Southwest and South Central U.S. will be susceptible to ecosystem vulnerability under the A2 climate
change scenario. Although, the B1 scenario provides a much more candid view amongst the two.

Coordinate System: USA Contiguous Albers Equal Conic Area USGS

Projection: Albers

Service Layer Credits: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, IGN, Aerogrid, USDA, USGS, Getmapping.

Datum: North American 1983

Data Acquired from: USGS, USDA, The Nature Conservancy