Call:

glm(formula = RESPONSE ~ ., family = binomial, data = GermanTrain)

Deviance Residuals:
Min
1Q Median
-2.6294 -0.6945 0.3440

3Q
0.6826

Max
2.1667

Coefficients:
(Intercept)
OBS.
CHK_ACCT1
CHK_ACCT2
CHK_ACCT3
DURATION
HISTORY1
HISTORY2
HISTORY3
HISTORY4
NEW_CAR1
USED_CAR1
FURNITURE1
RADIO.TV1
EDUCATION1
RETRAINING1
AMOUNT
SAV_ACCT1
SAV_ACCT2
SAV_ACCT3
SAV_ACCT4
EMPLOYMENT1
EMPLOYMENT2
EMPLOYMENT3
EMPLOYMENT4
INSTALL_RATE
MALE_DIV1
MALE_SINGLE1
MALE_MAR_or_WID1
CO.APPLICANT1
GUARANTOR1
PRESENT_RESIDENT2
PRESENT_RESIDENT3
PRESENT_RESIDENT4
REAL_ESTATE1
PROP_UNKN_NONE1
AGE
OTHER_INSTALL1
RENT1
OWN_RES1
NUM_CREDITS
JOB1
JOB2
JOB3
NUM_DEPENDENTS
TELEPHONE1
FOREIGN1
--Signif. codes: 0

Estimate
3.845e+00
-1.876e-04
2.332e-01
1.289e+00
1.919e+00
-3.838e-02
3.489e-01
2.814e-01
9.736e-01
1.359e+00
-8.630e-01
7.467e-01
-1.056e-01
1.391e-01
-9.581e-01
-1.674e-01
-4.979e-05
1.117e-01
1.622e-01
1.377e+00
6.389e-01
-2.908e-01
6.881e-02
6.602e-01
3.417e-01
-2.501e-01
-8.216e-03
7.119e-01
4.051e-01
-4.719e-01
1.088e+00
-9.478e-01
-6.630e-01
-5.868e-01
1.165e-01
-7.700e-01
6.289e-03
-8.779e-01
-4.826e-01
-2.454e-01
-5.254e-01
-1.325e+00
-1.331e+00
-1.164e+00
-2.086e-01
3.512e-01
2.316e+00
***

Std. Error
1.513e+00
3.579e-04
2.591e-01
4.500e-01
2.910e-01
1.159e-02
7.044e-01
5.543e-01
6.035e-01
5.605e-01
4.858e-01
6.146e-01
4.989e-01
4.872e-01
6.233e-01
5.659e-01
5.345e-05
3.398e-01
4.792e-01
6.390e-01
3.161e-01
5.584e-01
5.247e-01
5.782e-01
5.297e-01
1.083e-01
4.430e-01
2.534e-01
4.008e-01
5.181e-01
5.222e-01
3.751e-01
4.123e-01
3.741e-01
2.655e-01
4.484e-01
1.122e-02
2.691e-01
5.596e-01
5.331e-01
2.405e-01
9.760e-01
9.562e-01
9.584e-01
3.104e-01
2.394e-01
1.077e+00

0.001

** 0.01

z value
2.541
-0.524
0.900
2.864
6.596
-3.311
0.495
0.508
1.613
2.424
-1.777
1.215
-0.212
0.286
-1.537
-0.296
-0.932
0.329
0.338
2.156
2.021
-0.521
0.131
1.142
0.645
-2.309
-0.019
2.809
1.011
-0.911
2.083
-2.527
-1.608
-1.568
0.439
-1.717
0.561
-3.263
-0.862
-0.460
-2.185
-1.357
-1.392
-1.214
-0.672
1.467
2.150
*

Pr(>|z|)
0.011063
0.600145
0.368052
0.004178
4.24e-11
0.000928
0.620328
0.611723
0.106666
0.015339
0.075613
0.224365
0.832362
0.775217
0.124250
0.767376
0.351560
0.742349
0.735024
0.031118
0.043273
0.602564
0.895663
0.253549
0.518784
0.020916
0.985202
0.004963
0.312121
0.362367
0.037222
0.011502
0.107852
0.116783
0.660838
0.085923
0.575095
0.001104
0.388469
0.645295
0.028914
0.174667
0.163873
0.224595
0.501558
0.142272
0.031557

0.05 .

0.1

*
**
***
***

*
.

*
*

*
**
*
*

.
**
*

*
1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

Null deviance: 853.51 on 699 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 606.93 on 653 degrees of freedom
AIC: 700.93
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
Call:
rpart(formula = RESPONSE ~ ., data = GermanTrain, method = "class")
n= 700
1
2
3
4
5
6

CP nsplit rel error

xerror
xstd
0.06459330
0 1.0000000 1.0000000 0.05793201
0.04784689
2 0.8708134 1.0239234 0.05832164
0.02392344
3 0.8229665 0.9282297 0.05666055
0.01594896
5 0.7751196 0.9712919 0.05744218
0.01315789
10 0.6794258 0.9904306 0.05777146
0.01000000
15 0.6028708 1.0095694 0.05808986

Variable importance
CHK_ACCT
DURATION
OBS.
27
12
7
SAV_ACCT
USED_CAR
TATE
7
4
2
EMPLOYMENT
MALE_SINGLE
NTOR
2
2
1
AGE
INSTALL_RATE
1
1

AMOUNT

HISTORY

12

10

JOB PRESENT_RESIDENT
3

RADIO.TV

PROP_UNKN_NONE

TELEPHONE
1

MALE_DIV
1

REAL_ES

Node number 1: 700 observations,

complexity param=0.0645933
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.2985714 P(node) =1
class counts: 209 491
probabilities: 0.299 0.701
left son=2 (378 obs) right son=3 (322 obs)
Primary splits:
CHK_ACCT splits as LLRR,
improve=36.251430, (0 missing)
DURATION < 31.5
to the right, improve= 9.925180, (0 missing)
HISTORY splits as LLLLR,
improve= 8.766298, (0 missing)
AMOUNT < 3913.5 to the right, improve= 7.625120, (0 missing)
SAV_ACCT splits as LLRRR,
improve= 6.725839, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
SAV_ACCT
splits as LLRLR, agree=0.596, adj=0.121, (0 split)
HISTORY
splits as LLLLR, agree=0.593, adj=0.115, (0 split)
PRESENT_RESIDENT splits as LRLL, agree=0.581, adj=0.090, (0 split)
RADIO.TV
splits as LR,
agree=0.556, adj=0.034, (0 split)
EMPLOYMENT
splits as LLLLR, agree=0.556, adj=0.034, (0 split)
Node number 2: 378 observations,
complexity param=0.0645933
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.4470899 P(node) =0.54
class counts: 169 209
probabilities: 0.447 0.553
left son=4 (161 obs) right son=5 (217 obs)
Primary splits:

GUARA

DURATION
PROP_UNKN_NONE
REAL_ESTATE
HISTORY
GUARANTOR
Surrogate splits:
AMOUNT
PROP_UNKN_NONE
HISTORY
USED_CAR
JOB

< 22.5
splits
splits
splits
splits

as
as
as
as

to the right,
RL,
LR,
LLRRR,
LR,

improve=10.490890,
improve= 7.581000,
improve= 6.046863,
improve= 5.597884,
improve= 5.124977,

< 2805.5
splits as
splits as
splits as
splits as

to the right,
RL,
LLRLR,
RL,
RRRL,

agree=0.767,
agree=0.643,
agree=0.603,
agree=0.603,
agree=0.603,

(0
(0
(0
(0
(0

missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)

adj=0.453,
adj=0.161,
adj=0.068,
adj=0.068,
adj=0.068,

(0
(0
(0
(0
(0

split)
split)
split)
split)
split)

Node number 3: 322 observations

predicted class=1 expected loss=0.1242236 P(node) =0.46
class counts:
40 282
probabilities: 0.124 0.876
Node number 4: 161 observations,
complexity param=0.02392344
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.4161491 P(node) =0.23
class counts:
94
67
probabilities: 0.584 0.416
left son=8 (12 obs) right son=9 (149 obs)
Primary splits:
AMOUNT
< 1381.5 to the left, improve=2.872490, (0
DURATION
< 43.5
to the right, improve=2.781931, (0
INSTALL_RATE < 2.5
to the right, improve=2.539004, (0
EMPLOYMENT splits as RLLLL,
improve=2.493335, (0
SAV_ACCT
splits as LLRRR,
improve=2.492513, (0

missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)

Node number 5: 217 observations,

complexity param=0.04784689
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.3456221 P(node) =0.31
class counts:
75 142
probabilities: 0.346 0.654
left son=10 (18 obs) right son=11 (199 obs)
Primary splits:
HISTORY
splits as LLRRR,
improve=7.331445, (0 missing)
OBS.
< 120.5 to the right, improve=4.762425, (0 missing)
AMOUNT
< 1373
to the left, improve=4.283708, (0 missing)
REAL_ESTATE splits as LR,
improve=4.226761, (0 missing)
EDUCATION splits as RL,
improve=3.375570, (0 missing)
Node number 8: 12 observations
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.08333333 P(node) =0.01714286
class counts:
11
1
probabilities: 0.917 0.083
Node number 9: 149 observations,
complexity param=0.02392344
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.442953 P(node) =0.2128571
class counts:
83
66
probabilities: 0.557 0.443
left son=18 (125 obs) right son=19 (24 obs)
Primary splits:
SAV_ACCT
splits as LLRRR,
improve=4.029535, (0
DURATION
< 43.5
to the right, improve=3.691492, (0
EMPLOYMENT
splits as RLLLL,
improve=2.147662, (0
AGE
< 27.5
to the left, improve=2.082493, (0
PROP_UNKN_NONE splits as RL,
improve=1.817664, (0
Node number 10: 18 observations
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.2222222 P(node) =0.02571429

missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)

class counts:
14
4
probabilities: 0.778 0.222
Node number 11: 199 observations,
complexity param=0.01315789
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.3065327 P(node) =0.2842857
class counts:
61 138
probabilities: 0.307 0.693
left son=22 (168 obs) right son=23 (31 obs)
Primary splits:
OBS.
< 120.5 to the right, improve=4.301556, (0 missing)
AMOUNT
< 1373
to the left, improve=3.755116, (0 missing)
EMPLOYMENT splits as LLLRL,
improve=2.800175, (0 missing)
JOB
splits as LRLL,
improve=2.650923, (0 missing)
AGE
< 25.5
to the left, improve=2.638117, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
SAV_ACCT splits as LLRLL, agree=0.854, adj=0.065, (0 split)
Node number 18: 125 observations,
complexity param=0.01594896
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.392 P(node) =0.1785714
class counts:
76
49
probabilities: 0.608 0.392
left son=36 (26 obs) right son=37 (99 obs)
Primary splits:
DURATION
< 43.5
to the right, improve=5.023782, (0 missing)
INSTALL_RATE < 2.5
to the right, improve=2.120279, (0 missing)
USED_CAR
splits as LR,
improve=2.019099, (0 missing)
AGE
< 27.5
to the left, improve=1.768127, (0 missing)
MALE_SINGLE splits as LR,
improve=1.741538, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
AMOUNT < 14369.5 to the right, agree=0.8, adj=0.038, (0 split)
Node number 19: 24 observations
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.2916667 P(node) =0.03428571
class counts:
7
17
probabilities: 0.292 0.708
Node number 22: 168 observations,
complexity param=0.01315789
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.3511905 P(node) =0.24
class counts:
59 109
probabilities: 0.351 0.649
left son=44 (127 obs) right son=45 (41 obs)
Primary splits:
JOB
splits as LRLL,
improve=3.532445, (0 missing)
OBS.
< 200
to the left, improve=2.723968, (0 missing)
AMOUNT
< 1513
to the left, improve=2.720443, (0 missing)
EMPLOYMENT splits as LLLRL,
improve=2.597305, (0 missing)
GUARANTOR splits as LR,
improve=2.591315, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
AMOUNT < 736
to the right, agree=0.786, adj=0.122, (0 split)
SAV_ACCT splits as LLRLL,
agree=0.762, adj=0.024, (0 split)
Node number 23: 31 observations
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.06451613 P(node) =0.04428571
class counts:
2
29
probabilities: 0.065 0.935
Node number 36: 26 observations
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.1153846 P(node) =0.03714286
class counts:
23
3
probabilities: 0.885 0.115

Node number 37: 99 observations,

complexity param=0.01594896
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.4646465 P(node) =0.1414286
class counts:
53
46
probabilities: 0.535 0.465
left son=74 (18 obs) right son=75 (81 obs)
Primary splits:
AMOUNT
< 8015.5 to the right, improve=2.585859, (0 missing)
USED_CAR
splits as LR,
improve=2.552525, (0 missing)
MALE_SINGLE splits as LR,
improve=2.425253, (0 missing)
GUARANTOR splits as LR,
improve=2.320848, (0 missing)
AGE
< 53.5
to the left, improve=1.941414, (0 missing)
Node number 44: 127 observations,
complexity param=0.01315789
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.4094488 P(node) =0.1814286
class counts:
52
75
probabilities: 0.409 0.591
left son=88 (57 obs) right son=89 (70 obs)
Primary splits:
AMOUNT
< 1541.5 to the left, improve=2.824842, (0 missing)
OTHER_INSTALL splits as RL,
improve=2.216253, (0 missing)
EMPLOYMENT
splits as LLLRL,
improve=2.130692, (0 missing)
MALE_SINGLE splits as LR,
improve=2.104727, (0 missing)
OBS.
< 923.5 to the left, improve=1.724291, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
INSTALL_RATE
< 3.5
to the right, agree=0.654, adj=0.228, (0
DURATION
< 15.5
to the left, agree=0.638, adj=0.193, (0
PRESENT_RESIDENT splits as RRLR,
agree=0.598, adj=0.105, (0
TELEPHONE
splits as LR,
agree=0.598, adj=0.105, (0
FOREIGN
splits as RL,
agree=0.598, adj=0.105, (0
Node number 45: 41 observations
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.1707317 P(node) =0.05857143
class counts:
7
34
probabilities: 0.171 0.829
Node number 74: 18 observations
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.2222222 P(node) =0.02571429
class counts:
14
4
probabilities: 0.778 0.222
Node number 75: 81 observations,
complexity param=0.01594896
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.4814815 P(node) =0.1157143
class counts:
39
42
probabilities: 0.481 0.519
left son=150 (71 obs) right son=151 (10 obs)
Primary splits:
USED_CAR
splits as LR,
improve=5.289515, (0 missing)
MALE_SINGLE splits as LR,
improve=3.225350, (0 missing)
AMOUNT
< 5302.5 to the left, improve=3.111111, (0 missing)
INSTALL_RATE < 2.5
to the right, improve=2.192423, (0 missing)
JOB
splits as RLRR,
improve=2.031401, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
AGE < 59
to the left, agree=0.901, adj=0.2, (0 split)
Node number 88: 57 observations,
complexity param=0.01315789
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.4736842 P(node) =0.08142857
class counts:
30
27
probabilities: 0.526 0.474
left son=176 (39 obs) right son=177 (18 obs)

split)
split)
split)
split)
split)

Primary splits:
REAL_ESTATE splits as LR,
improve=3.250112, (0 missing)
GUARANTOR splits as LR,
improve=2.346767, (0 missing)
DURATION
< 8.5
to the right, improve=2.321053, (0 missing)
OBS.
< 676.5 to the left, improve=2.033858, (0 missing)
AGE
< 47.5
to the left, improve=1.753068, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
GUARANTOR splits as LR,
agree=0.807, adj=0.389, (0 split)
RADIO.TV splits as LR,
agree=0.754, adj=0.222, (0 split)
OBS.
< 949
to the left, agree=0.719, adj=0.111, (0 split)
AMOUNT
< 1513
to the left, agree=0.719, adj=0.111, (0 split)
FOREIGN splits as LR,
agree=0.719, adj=0.111, (0 split)
Node number 89: 70 observations,
complexity param=0.01315789
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.3142857 P(node) =0.1
class counts:
22
48
probabilities: 0.314 0.686
left son=178 (9 obs) right son=179 (61 obs)
Primary splits:
OBS.
< 246
to the left, improve=4.437367, (0
EMPLOYMENT
splits as RRLRL,
improve=2.944455, (0
PRESENT_RESIDENT splits as RLRL,
improve=2.878912, (0
AMOUNT
< 6970
to the right, improve=2.488889, (0
AGE
< 26.5
to the left, improve=2.344803, (0
Surrogate splits:
CO.APPLICANT splits as RL, agree=0.886, adj=0.111, (0 split)

missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)
missing)

Node number 150: 71 observations,

complexity param=0.01594896
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.4507042 P(node) =0.1014286
class counts:
39
32
probabilities: 0.549 0.451
left son=300 (35 obs) right son=301 (36 obs)
Primary splits:
MALE_SINGLE splits as LR,
improve=2.569215, (0 missing)
OBS.
< 293.5 to the right, improve=2.211792, (0 missing)
RENT
splits as RL,
improve=1.949416, (0 missing)
MALE_DIV
splits as RL,
improve=1.463126, (0 missing)
OWN_RES
splits as LR,
improve=1.264733, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
EMPLOYMENT
splits as RLLRR, agree=0.662, adj=0.314, (0 split)
MALE_DIV
splits as RL,
agree=0.648, adj=0.286, (0 split)
PRESENT_RESIDENT splits as LRRL, agree=0.620, adj=0.229, (0 split)
TELEPHONE
splits as RL,
agree=0.620, adj=0.229, (0 split)
CHK_ACCT
splits as RL--, agree=0.606, adj=0.200, (0 split)
Node number 151: 10 observations
predicted class=1 expected loss=0 P(node) =0.01428571
class counts:
0
10
probabilities: 0.000 1.000
Node number 176: 39 observations
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.3589744 P(node) =0.05571429
class counts:
25
14
probabilities: 0.641 0.359
Node number 177: 18 observations
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.2777778 P(node) =0.02571429
class counts:
5
13
probabilities: 0.278 0.722

Node number 178: 9 observations

predicted class=0 expected loss=0.2222222 P(node) =0.01285714
class counts:
7
2
probabilities: 0.778 0.222
Node number 179: 61 observations
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.2459016 P(node) =0.08714286
class counts:
15
46
probabilities: 0.246 0.754
Node number 300: 35 observations
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.3142857 P(node) =0.05
class counts:
24
11
probabilities: 0.686 0.314
Node number 301: 36 observations,
complexity param=0.01594896
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.4166667 P(node) =0.05142857
class counts:
15
21
probabilities: 0.417 0.583
left son=602 (14 obs) right son=603 (22 obs)
Primary splits:
AMOUNT
< 3962
to the right, improve=2.3441560, (0 missing)
EMPLOYMENT splits as RLLRL,
improve=1.7472730, (0 missing)
SAV_ACCT splits as LR---,
improve=1.3029560, (0 missing)
OBS.
< 278
to the right, improve=1.0000000, (0 missing)
HISTORY
splits as LLRLR,
improve=0.9307692, (0 missing)
Surrogate splits:
EMPLOYMENT splits as RRLRR,
agree=0.750, adj=0.357, (0 split)
HISTORY
splits as LRRLR,
agree=0.722, adj=0.286, (0 split)
OBS.
< 88
to the left, agree=0.694, adj=0.214, (0 split)
DURATION
< 37.5
to the right, agree=0.694, adj=0.214, (0 split)
INSTALL_RATE < 3.5
to the left, agree=0.667, adj=0.143, (0 split)
Node number 602: 14 observations
predicted class=0 expected loss=0.3571429 P(node) =0.02
class counts:
9
5
probabilities: 0.643 0.357
Node number 603: 22 observations
predicted class=1 expected loss=0.2727273 P(node) =0.03142857
class counts:
6
16
probabilities: 0.273 0.727
Classification tree:
tree(formula = RESPONSE ~ ., data = GermanTrain)
Variables actually used in tree construction:
[1] "CHK_ACCT"
"DURATION"
"HISTORY"
[5] "OTHER_INSTALL"
"JOB"
"AGE"
[9] "RETRAINING"
Number of terminal nodes: 13
Residual mean deviance: 0.9071 = 623.1 / 687
Misclassification error rate: 0.2371 = 166 / 700
FALSE TRUE
124 85
49 442
predGermantree
0 1
0 114 95
0
1

"OBS."
"PRESENT_RESIDENT"

1 71 420
Min. 1st Qu. Median
Mean 3rd Qu.
Max.
0.2889 0.2889 0.2889 0.2889 0.2889 0.2889
0 1
209 491
0
1

FALSE TRUE
41 50
30 179

Classification tree:
tree(formula = RESPONSE ~ ., data = GermanTest)
Variables actually used in tree construction:
[1] "CHK_ACCT"
"SAV_ACCT"
"HISTORY"
[6] "DURATION"
"MALE_DIV"
"AGE"
"
[11] "INSTALL_RATE"
Number of terminal nodes: 23
Residual mean deviance: 0.6191 = 171.5 / 277
Misclassification error rate: 0.1233 = 37 / 300

"OTHER_INSTALL" "OBS."
"AMOUNT"

"EMPLOYMENT