Trng HBK TPHCM

Bo mon Toan ng dung

E THI HOC KY
MON XAC SUAT THONG KE
Thi gian: 90 phut.

- e thi gom 2 trang.

- Th sinh c dung cac bang tra so va may tnh bo tui.
- Cac so gan ung lam tron en 4 ch so phan thap phan.

Cau 1 (2,5 ) Mot he thong ky thuat gom n bo phan mac noi tiep nhau. Xac
suat hoat ong tot cua moi bo phan trong khoang thi gian T la p. He
thong se ngng hoat ong khi co t nhat mot bo phan b hong.
e nang cao o tin cay cua he thong, ngi ta d tr them n bo phn na
theo phng thc a) hoac phng thc b) nh sau:
a)
P

b)
P

a) Tm xac sut hoat ong tot cua cac he thong d tr theo 2 phng
thc tren trong khoang thi gian T.
b) Hoi phng thc d tr nao mang lai o tin cay cao hn cho ca he
thong?
Cau 2 ( 2,5 ) Mot nha may ban mot loai san pham vi gia 1 USD mot san
pham. Trong lng cua san pham la mot LNN co phan bo chuan vi ky
vong a kg va o lech tieu chuan 2 1 kg2. Gia thanh lam ra mot san
pham la: c = 0,051a + 0,32. Neu san pham co trong lng be hn 8kg
th phai loai bo v khong ban c.
Hay xac nh a e li nhuan cua nha may la ln nhat.
Cau 3 ( 3 ) Khi nghien cu ve s anh hng cua mc thu nhap X cua cac ho
gia nh (n v: trieu ong/ thang) oi vi mc o tieu dung Y oi vi mot

loai thc pham (n v: kg/ thang), ngi ta kho st ngu nhien 168 gia
nh trong vung va thu c bang so lieu sau ay:
X

Y
2
4
6
8
10

10
5

20
7
13

30
18
25
15

40

50

60

27
11
9

2
20
7

6
3

a) Tm phng trnh hoi quy tuyen tnh mu cua X oi vi Y va tnh he so tng quan
mau.
b) Vi o tin cay 95%, hay tm cac khoang tin cay cho trung bnh cua mc thu nhap va
trung bnh cua mc tieu dung loai thc pham nay cua cac gia nh trong vung.
c) Co tai lieu noi ty le gia nh c thu nhap cao ( t 50 trieu tr len) la 28%. Vi mc
y ngha 3%, hay cho nhan xet ve o tin cay cua tai lieu tren.
Cau 4:. ( 2 ) Di y l mt mu thong ke ve chieu cao cua mot loai cay sau hai
thang tuoi:
o cao (cm)
So lng

6-8

8-10

10-12

12-14

14-16

16-18

27

52

68

33

14

Vi mc y ngha = 0,01 hay kiem nh xem mau tren co phu hp vi phan phoi
chuan khong?

CHU NHIEM BO MON

PGS.TS.Nguyen nh Huy

AP AN
Cau 1: 2 + 0,5
a) Theo phng thc a): Pa = (1- q2)n .
q=1-p
n 2
Theo phng thc b): Pb = 1- (1- p )
b) Pa = pn * ( 2- p )n
> Pb = pn * ( 2 pn). ( tnh cht hm m)
Cau 2:
Gi X l trng lng sn phm. Y l s tin thu c khi sn xut 1 sn phm.
E(Y) = -c * P(X<8) + (1- c) * P(X>=8)
= - 0,051 a + 0,18 - (8-a)
Ea = - 0,051 + f(8-a)

f(x) : hm mt Gauss.

Ea = 0 khi f(8-a) = 0,051 8-a = 2,02 ( tra bng) a= 5,98 ; a= 10,02.

Xt du E da vo hm f .. E(Y) t GTLN ti a= 10,02.
Cau 3: 1 + 1+ 1
a) R = 0,7538.

Phng trnh hi quy x = 10,5681 +3,9746 y

b) Khong L cho mc thu nhp trung bnh:

36,0714 1,96 11,5316/168 =
36,0714 1,7438
(34,3277 ; 37,8152 )
Khong L cho nhu cu trung bnh:
6,4167 1,96 2,2187/168 = 6,4167 0,3307 (6,0859 ; 6,7474 )
c) Ho : p= 28%; H1: p 28%
z= 2,17
Min bc b W = ( -; -2,17) ( 2,17; +)
f = 38/168 = 0,2262
zqs = (0,2262 0,28)* 168/ (0,28* 0,72) = -1,5533 W.
Chp nhn Ho. Ti liu c coi nh ng tin.

Cau 4: 2
Ho: Mu ph hp phn phi chun a = 12,37 ; = 2,3797.
H1: Mu khng ph hp phn phi chun.
Tra bng 2= 11,34 . Min bc b W = (11,34 ; +)
Pi
Ei =n*pi

0.033152
6.630356

0.126492 0.278577 0.315095

25.29836 55.71544 63.01895

0.183105 0.063579
36.62102 12.71588

2qs = 1,3036 W. Chp nhn Ho. Mu ph hp vi phn phi chun.

3