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QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
Learning Objectives:
Benefits of product variety
Factors limiting product variety
Strategic considerations in product-line pricing
III.
Quantitative Analysis:
We will first consider the product-line design and pricing decisions for the case when
CSC can offer only one version. In this case, the product-line design only involves
selecting the right version to offer. Note further that targeting/positioning decision is
synonymous with pricing decision in this case because the price selected by CSC
completely determines which of the potential 5 segments will actually buy the version
introduced by CSC. In the second part of this document, we consider the multi-version
case.
Student
Large
Corp
Commercial
Labs
Consultants
Industrial
Small
Business
Students
In the decision tree, there are two levels of decisions/optimizations. The first level
involves selection of the model to introduce. The second level decision is the
targeting/positioning/pricing decision. In the figure above, Consultants refers to the
fact that targeting includes Consultants and more high-end segments (i.e. Large
Corporations and labs). Note that with any decision tree analysis, to reach a
conclusion, we have to work backwards. The managerial thought process involves the
following steps:
Step 1: Suppose CSC introduces student version, what is the optimal price?
What are the relevant costs at this stage of decision making?
Segments
Served
Unit
Contribution
Seg. Dev.
Costs
Demand
$ 200
$ 175
Consultants
Consultants
Small Bus.
Consultants
Small Bus.
Large Corp.
Consultants
Small Bus.
Large Corp.
R&D, U Lab.
Consultants
Small Bus.
Large Corp.
R&D, U Lab.
Students
$ 185
$ 160
$ 200,000
$ 400,000
20,000
35,000
Total
Contribution
(000s)
$ 3,500
$ 5,200
$ 135
$ 550,000
40,000
$ 4,850
$ 85
$ 650,000
42,000
$ 2,920
$ 35/$ 15***
$ 950,000
542,000
$ 8,020
$ 150
$ 100
$ 50
***
CSC sells to student segment through college book stores which get 40 % commission
or
industrial version (Note: CSC management has already figured out its optimal
pricing policies in these contingencies.)
Table 2: Results From Contribution Analysis For
Commercial and Industrial versions
Version
Commercial
Industrial
Optimal Price
$ 225
Segments Served
Consultants
Small Bus.
Large Corp.
R&D,U Lab.
Consultants
Large Corp.
R&D,U Lab.
$ 600
Total Contribution
$ 7,750,000
$ 14, 805,000
Step 3: Choose the versions which gives the maximum Net Total Contribution (net of
estimated product (version) completion cost). Why is product completion cost a
relevant cost at this decision stage?
e.g. CSC should choose student version if
Optimal TCstudent - $ 100,000 > Optimal TCcommercial - $ 200,000
and
Optimal TCstudent - $ 100,000 > Optimal TCindustrial - $ 500,000
Table 3:Optimal Choice of Versions
Version
Optimal Price
Student
$ 50
Commercial
$ 225
Industrial
$ 600
Segments Served
Consultants
Small Bus.
Large Corp.
R&D,U Lab.
Students
Large Corp.
R&D,U Lab.
Consultants
Small Bus.
Large Corp.
R&D,U Lab.
Consultants
Net Total
Contribution
$ 7,920,000
$ 7,550,000
$ 14, 305,000
CSC should offer the Industrial version in the single-version case. The optimal
targeting/positing involves serving the three high-end segments viz. Large Corp.,
Labs and Consultants segments. With this product line design and targeting, the
optimal price is $ 600.
(b)
Multi-Version case:
Note that in the single-version case, CSC chooses to introduce the Industrial version
and serve only the 3 high-end segments. Even though Students segments (@ 500,000)
is by far the largest segment, CSC chose to ignore it because the negative price effect
(reduction in unit contribution) outweighed the positive volume effect (demand
expansion).
Is there some other way to include the Students segment?
What about offering 2 versions of Modeler, with Students segments buying one
version and other segments buying the other version?
Now, for 2-version case, there are two options: (1) Industrial and Commercial
versions; and, (2) ) Industrial and Student versions. We will consider the second
option i.e. Industrial and Student versions first because of the following
considerations: The logic for including a second version is to include the large
students segment. Now, observe that in the single-version case, if CSC were to
introduce Commercial version, it would have ignored the students segment
because the incremental contribution (net of segment development cost) was negative
at $ 1,730,000.
How should one approach the problem of optimal targeting/pricing, given that
CSC is introducing Industrial and Student versions?
To ensure that Students segment buys the Student version, it must be priced at
$50. What about the price of the Industrial version? Recall that in the single-version
case, the optimal price was $ 600 and the target segments were Large Corp., Labs and
Consultants. Would these segments still buy the Industrial version at $ 600 given
that they can buy Student version as well (i.e. CSC can not restrict these consumers
from buying Student version)?1
Below are the consumer surplus (i.e. willingness-to-pay minus price) for the two
versions of the 3 high-end segments (recall that, in the single-version case, if CSC
1
Note that in same cases, firms can and do prevent sale e.g. special student and senior citizen discount is
available only to these specific segments by requiring student ID or proof-of-age
7
were to introduce Industrial version, optimal targeting excluded the Small Business
segment):
Table 4: Consumer Surplus with Industrial version @ $600 and Student
version @ $50
Student version
Industrial version
Large Corp
$1900 (=$2500-$600)
Labs
$ 50 (=$100 - $50)
$1400 (=$2000-$600)
Consultants
$ 0 (=$600-$600)
From Table 4, it is clear that while Large Corp and Labs will continue to buy
Industrial segment, Consultants segment will switch to Student version because
they get more surplus with that version.
What price should CSC charge for Industrial version, given that Student
version is priced @ $ 50?
Clearly, $ 600 is not optimal anymore because at this price, Consultants are not
buying the Industrial version. Recall that in the single-version case, CSC reduced the
price of Industrial version up to $ 600 (willingness-to-pay for industrial version
for Consultants segment) because the positive volume effect offset the negative price
effect up to the Consultants segment. Any further reduction was sub-optimal. What
about a price of $ 450 for Industrial version? Note that at this price, the Consultants
are indifferent between the two version. This changes the contribution from the
Consultants segment and the conclusion from our earlier Contribution Analysis (Table
2) that Industrial version should target Consultants segment is no longer valid.
Another thing to note at this point is that in the single-version case, if Consultant did
not buy the Industrial version, unit sales of 20,000 (segment size) was lost. In the
2-version case, however, these consumers can now buy the low-end Student version
and so sales is not lost altogether.
Willingness-to-pay (EV)
Surplus from
Student version
Large Corp
$100
$2400 (=$2500-$100)
Labs
$ 50
$1950 (=$2000-$50)
Consultants
$ 150
$450 (=$600-$150)
Segments
Served
Unit
Contribution
Seg. Dev.
Costs
Demand
$ 2400
$ 1950
Large Corp.
Large Corp.
R&D, ULab.
Large Corp.
R&D, U Lab.
Consultants
$ 2365
$ 1915
$ 150,000
$ 250,000
5,000
7,000
Total
Contribution
(000s)
$ 11,675
$ 13,155
$ 415
$ 450,000
27,000
$ 10,755
$ 450
The other 3 segments buy Student version generating a net contribution (net of
product completion cost) from this version of:
Table 7: Revised Contribution Analysis for Modeler Student Version
Demand
Unit Contribution
Total Contribution
(Net of Seg. Dev. Cost)
Consultants
20,000
$ 35
$ 500,000
Small Business
15,000
$ 35
$ 325,000
Students
500,000
$ 15
$ 7,200,000
Less:
Product Completion Cost
$ 100,000
$ 7, 925, 000
10