Economic Insights

Economics | October 2 2015

Week Ahead
Current

Last Week

Last month

Last year

October 1

September 24

September 1

October 1 2014

Cash Rate (%)

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.50

90 day bills (%)

2.17

2.19

2.13

2.70

10 year bonds (%)

2.61

2.64

2.64

3.50

AUD/USD

0.7055

0.6998

0.7126

0.8693

Gold ( US$/ounce)

1113.70

1153.80

1139.80

1215.50

Iron Ore ( US$/tonne)

54.50

56.80

55.70

78.30

Oil ( US$/barrel)

44.74

44.91

45.41

90.73

All Ordinaries

5144.1

5102.3

5117.1

5334.5

Australia
Date

Event

Consensus

Last release

Monday October 5

Inflation gauge (September)

0.1%

Monday October 5

Job advertisements (September)

1.0%

Tuesday October 6

Weekly consumer sentiment

-3.4%

Tuesday October 6

International trade (August)

-$2.7Bn

-$2.5Bn

Tuesday October 6

Tourist arrivals (August)

Tuesday October 6

Reserve Bank Board meeting

2.0%

2.0%

Friday October 9

Housing finance (August)

5.0%

0.3%

Consensus

Last release

58.0

59.0

International
Date

Event

Monday October 5

US ISM Services index (September)

Tuesday October 6

US Trade balance (August)

-$41.25Bn

-$41.86Bn

Wednesday October 7

US Consumer credit (August)

$18.0Bn

$19.1Bn

Thursday October 8

US Federal Reserve minutes

Friday October 9

US Import price index (September)

-0.5%

-1.8%

Friday October 9

US Wholesale inventories (August)

0.1%

-0.1%

An interesting week is in prospect, dominated by the Reserve Bank Board meeting.

The week kicks off on Monday on a somewhat disjointed note. In NSW, Queensland, the ACT and South
Australia there are public holidays. But the sharemarket is open while car sales, the monthly Inflation Gauge and
job advertisement figures are released. Inflation is well contained and the job market is picking up.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank Board meets and it is a safe bet that interest rates will be left unchanged for a 5th
month (6 months of rates at 2 per cent). However the accompanying statement is likely to be somewhat different
from the September decision. Over the past month some domestic and global economic conditions have shifted
particularly when it comes to commodity prices and the Aussie dollar. But we dont believe that the Reserve Bank
will change its interest rate stability rhetoric at least not this year.

The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases statistics on tourist arrivals and departures on Tuesday together with
longer-run migration data and international trade data. In addition ANZ and Roy Morgan release the weekly
consumer confidence rating.

Savanth Sebastian, Economist (Author)

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