CHAPTER I6 62-1 a) Since. Ke prbebitity of weather tomerren to only dependent en taday, nokovisn property holds for erolutitn of He weather 4) Let o= Ran, I= Char, an Bed regard 1622 2) let increased today and yesterd. fnctea sed rey teed aera geen + decreased today but increased yesterday = decreased teday and eter awh 2 my ° then PoP. ITZ 8 TG 3) 0° a, 0 Inky 0 ky o Indy b) Because the stale space i Ploparhy defined as (change todo, chaape yestuday) , aad tomorrows state will erg ROME HE Second Comendant egunl to today’s Farst component Yes,it con be formulated asa Markov Chain with the following 8 (:23)states 1 2 3 4 | ee ee 6 dee dee u dee ine 8 dec dec Thewe stabs hamrduded all the fefrmatirn needed fo predat Yomayeny's: tckmacet Wlereod othe rh Pab.14.2-2 dreatt contd He dag before yortsrday , whieh. se ) 2 P = |ERA 0.7 | pS = [0.175 0.825 Oe 86 [e388 M9 Poser og p20 0:67 07833 [S38 ooaee Ib-\1651 (0) PC rain n days fom ref radn thday ) = Ph Tf tha probabil, at salt todey 2 05 Plrdin ndags from neo) = Py = 0.5 ph SS rrrr—™—~—r—UC—C“=EEE 167 2. 833 a wee beage every eo of pin) appraches fe the paaey pb 13-20) Lat dates 0 ond | denite that a 0 and a | have been racoreleol, cid . y t 3 w pi = oo 004! whee - 00] 009! aa) The prbability Hat 0 dit woul recorded accurabily “ wor P94 0,81 Pee Te at] The probebs Gy i off 1633 4) transition Matrix, P = oa Ohio 9 oe 05 0 05 0 0 Oye 0's) 0 0's 0) o 0 05 0 O85 05 0 0 05 0 wb 0.062 0.312 0.156 0.156 0.312 0.312 0.062 0.312 0.156 0.156 ps 01156 0.312 0.062 0.312 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.312 0.062 0.312 0.312 0.156 0.156 0.312 0.062 0.248 0.161 0.215 0.215 0.161 0.161 0.248 0.161 0.215 0.215 p10 (5 0.161 0.248 0.161 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.161 0.248 0.161 0.161 0.215 0.215 0.161 0.248 lo-h1633 4) (cowr) 0.206 0.195 0.202 0.202 0.195 0.195 0.206 0.195 0.202 0.202 p20 = | 0.202 0.195 0.206 0.195 0.202 0.202 0.202 0.195 0.206 0.195 0.195 0.202 0.202 0.195 0.206 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Osa) 0=2) 022) 0:2. 20.2) pa = | 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 pee = | 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 (O53) 052). (0r2| | Ora) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 @ We eam oasily pid ext T= The M = Me = Ty = 0.2 lett @)P has one recurrent communicating class: {0,4 2,2} ()P hag three communicating Classes {0} is absorbing and, therefore, recurrent {1,23 is reeucrent {33 i> transient ee (® P has one recurrent communccating class: £1,235 (bh) Phas one recurrent communicating Class: Lary e473 This matrix hes three comm unicating classes; {ot} is recurrent {2} és transient (3,43 is reeurrent ‘eat NOS ie are te classes: there is one class, Se a)3s) Gony2.43 and 3h every state has Hut Sane tae ree Frou the definition, From tHe definitions dy aspen On, Ty inspechion Hh pasted wee pasted Far tha etates te fonyesh eo we 2 aac tle pasiod Fun S33 is 4. a Cine $02, 6f65 transient ond L3h is (ecotlent- le-3aa! Fem apeP 9 a, + Up) T m+ =] 2 1 CEE, Sy) My \GS-2 Must show that % Th for jt Ol eees M satisfies the steady state equations: Th = Ee, 1, for th a veoh Since 2p, tt for aj, this is casily verified. Since the chain is irreducible, apervodie and pose tive fecurrent, this is the unique Solution, OS) Sree MoS, Mietu= T= Mes Te o£ 202 The teaaly- site i ot ange if Ke qrtbasibiy for mding sys 1654 Run the OR coursedtare colle coon fod = 0.346 = 0,385 Ty = 0.26 tobich menas te ahady. sate markst share for A and & ove 0346 anal 0385 respedtivly ‘ 16.55 fa Assume demand occurs after the delivery: roa es 4 6 eT tf om 6 «6 © © o ala .4 4 6 © © 0 3].0 ia kw 0 ee Pavlo cr ik 3 8 6 FJo 6 wt ko bfo 0 ok tLe ° ° ° Hd 671GS-5 (conto) th) TR ce SD CIB4, 134 6134, 13H, Nt, tye, ITH (C) THe siady prbabitig that a piat of bled ai to be clscardtool = pfDeo}. Pfstde 7 f= O4K07A= 0.0696 @ & onamenay dlaliveries } = SS phar} e{Dze} tet eS ora xCoate.t) + 0.127 x0.1 = 09556 16-5105-6 For & (5,5) policy with 322 and $23, COs Dg) s 10 # ATOKA) t 50 max $O.-2,0} for He CE Fo max {Dy ¥ 103 for %422 Kio) # Ello, Da] = 85 + Sof ,5-3) PLOF3] = 86.2 KD 4 Blel, Dyl]s 60 + 506 PG-2) PLDI] = 6/2 Kea: Ele(2, Du] > © + so B32) PERTH] S He Ey KOI ECBO] 20 46, 3) edt] st OLE CF PPD FHT 2 Thus Again for a (2,3) policy, Ke {me {2D 0} for Xe Hed, P2287 Nelo, p= 0.03] j Me 20, ps 0.03} (6) m= 065, me o.1f2 , T= 0098 , The 0154 (oO Lng ran auerage ot por ported = 4 30,003 ~filto 1o-4G61 G) The process satisfies the four points listed in See.15.3, and is thus let 0 = Working ° kevlar. t= Fatleg Heckowtsn Ay WD soot | Hie oA eee e Ho, = 14 9Ho! tls las Mee yb oF apecdional 1 don, wpe [2 ‘] 2log of o (D) Fram sc 45, we hove Haj = B Paka fe ol ple suck thet (ksh flo= 1+ flee He 2 Powe [+ 01 fro 7 Ha = [+ 09 Por Hor = 10 [ins pea suck Hat [esa Pa = 1 + of pot par = lo er = 14.09 flor + 0,1 Hi pe sll [pes f pu Het fhm Pars HF Of flea + ofl Ho = 2.09 The eed mune of egy that machine tM aman apecttinad a3 fo, (0) Te conld he the same duc ts the TMarkovidn Popuity. (66-3 a) cot) ene) @ aun fof of ° pe (0, *) [ 7 ° of ce) of ot ° 7 “ ‘ Pett aad Wied we yet me 2 5) uss? a Se solving ™ pad 9S . whichis the expected srs Haye Bh ause hich peestfence time of abate (Hd). lo-8166-4 @) Transition Matrix, P= [0.25 0.5 0.75 0.2 0.25 0.5 — 0.5 0.375 0.125 b) p2_= | 0.375 0.438 0.188 0150.3 Hee = 1p 025p0 Hee = 1+ 0.5 fle * 0.25 ple (Ca) {ks 1+ 5 Het 025 Hae z { Bis th 0.75 pe Ho = 1 0.26 Hart 0.35 pet 3 fers 1+ 0.25 Hor + 0.25Ha) | Ha = 2 Pos 2.75pex+ 0.35 Hin 9 fiz =a Pa = i+ OA5 peat o.spia pas % (# th Sindy te prbabitits vo (045 , 04, os) | Pes = 1b 085 Hoa + 05 pHa Hos % (@) T= 0 (045) + 2 (o4)t Clot) = $2 week. 166-5 5 (@) ‘Transition Matrix, P = [ 9 1 ©) T.C = 10.538) + 300.154) * 6 (oD ¢ pan = 1 0875 Hot 00125 How + Poo = 1+ &75 Hie + 0.125 Hoo + 0. 125 Kio Pre [+ 05 Hos +05 Hao Pes o+1 = foo = §.5 , whech co oxpodtid recuren tere for state o, 16-91e4-la) For Hee teaesitinn atti, Poot Pro's Fi, z,2%s Pasar #P, Pies? else Ad, Pe -! © © Oo bo Pp : > he pe of oP 6 0 of {by Class 1: {O} which és ah serbing Class 2: {T} which is absorbin . Class Bf tay +o) Tp which ts Transient Lee fe Pfabsorbtion at kK given stert at if Foot box"? Gaon f33°! Since Ajo for Lil FL 2nd Print P 5 Pig ed . _ sate QP hee wm bier GPR bio PHO” TP mio eect rox 2 Go $20" "6% Bape t-bre Phert 38 d) From the seme Formulas 25 in part c) we obtain: frox-38 fi3=-62 b2cz-4 Base 886 Lt appears that p7Va = 4rift to 7 pi > arigt te O (a) 0 ttave: te honer warranty 67-2. (= Reorder in Ist year as Reorder in 2nd year B= Reorder 3 years or older ote 2 of 1 0 © pz tf @ 4 o “ 2] .06 2 o 6 s3}o Oo oo 8 () Probability manufacturer has te honer warranty = fio fot fo + Ohio TA Fso tT OF Fret -08f00 © Of a t © fro TIS Fe bat @51 and £520 bet 01 +9 he 05 ess 25.95% 1-0L681. (a 3 2 I site RH nS RY © Bene euch 3m = 2M Am = 3% + 2Me 3M, = 2+ 2M oma tT T+ Me + Th + Me SI c (0 Sele Hom, we get ee %, # ool 68-2.(0) ghate mumber of Sebs ot He rk coer 2 a o>» Ome On ersO 4 4 4 CH) Sry site epnatins QT 47, Oni = Qot 4M Gr. = 2M + 47, 2m= 4m, Mot MtT +7 =| (©) We cna easily get w= ($.2,8,3) ler