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Bla6310x Chapter2
Bla6310x Chapter2
2
Factors: How Time and
Interest Affect Money
In the previous chapter we learned the basic concepts of engineering
economy and their role in decision making. The cash flow is fundamental
to every economic study. Cash flows occur in many configurations and
amountsisolated single values, series that are uniform, and series that
increase or decrease by constant amounts or constant percentages. This
chapter develops derivations for all the commonly used engineering economy factors that take the time value of money into account.
The application of factors is illustrated using their mathematical forms and
a standard notation format. Spreadsheet functions are introduced in order
to rapidly work with cash flow series and to perform sensitivity analysis.
The case study focuses on the significant impacts that compound interest
and time make on the value and amount of money.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Purpose: Derive and use the engineering economy factors to account for the time value
of money.
This chapter will help you:
FP and PF factors
1.
PA and AP factors
2.
Derive and use the uniform series present worth and capital
recovery factors.
FA and AF factors
3.
4.
PG and AG factors
5.
Geometric gradient
6.
Calculate i
7.
Calculate n
8.
Spreadsheets
9.
48
CHAPTER 2
2.1
The most fundamental factor in engineering economy is the one that determines
the amount of money F accumulated after n years (or periods) from a single
present worth P, with interest compounded one time per year (or period). Recall
that compound interest refers to interest paid on top of interest. Therefore, if an
amount P is invested at time t 0, the amount F1 accumulated 1 year hence at
an interest rate of i percent per year will be
F1 P Pi
P(1 i)
where the interest rate is expressed in decimal form. At the end of the second
year, the amount accumulated F2 is the amount after year 1 plus the interest from
the end of year 1 to the end of year 2 on the entire F1.
F2 F1 F1i
P(1 i ) P(1 i )i
[2.1]
[2.2]
The factor (1i) is called the single-payment compound amount factor (SPCAF),
but it is usually referred to as the FP factor. This is the conversion factor that,
when multiplied by P, yields the future amount F of an initial amount P after n
years at interest rate i. The cash flow diagram is seen in Figure 21a.
Reverse the situation to determine the P value for a stated amount F that
occurs n periods in the future. Simply solve Equation [2.2] for P.
1
PF
n
(1 i )
[2.3]
SECTION 2.1
49
P = given
i = given
i = given
n2
n1
n2
F = given
F=?
(a)
n1
(b)
Figure 21
Cash flow diagrams for single-payment factors: (a) find F and (b) find P.
21
Notation
Name
(FP,i,n) Single-payment
compound amount
(PF,i,n) Single-payment
present worth
Find/Given
FP
PF
Standard Notation
Equation
Equation
with Factor Formula
F P(FP,i,n)
F P(1 i)n
P F(PF,i,n)
P F[1(1 i)n]
Excel
Functions
FV(i%,n,,P)
PV(i%,n,,F)
50
CHAPTER 2
Factor values
Tables
1 to 29
book, are arranged with factors across the top and the number of periods n down
the left. The word discrete in the title of each table emphasizes that these tables
utilize the end-of-period convention and that interest is compounded once each
interest period. For a given factor, interest rate, and time, the correct factor value
is found at the intersection of the factor name and n. For example, the value of
the factor (PF,5%,10) is found in the PF column of Table 10 at period 10 as
0.6139. This value is determined by using Equation [2.3].
(PF, 5%,10)
1
(1 i)n
1
(1.05)10
1
0.6139
1.6289
For solution by computer, the F value is calculated by the FV function using the
format
FV(i%,n,,P)
Q-SOLVE
An sign must precede the function when it is entered. The amount P is determined using the PV function with the format
PV(i%,n,,F)
These functions are included in Table 21. Refer to Appendix A or Excel online
help for more information on the FV and PV functions. Examples 2.1 and 2.2
illustrate solutions by computer using both of these functions.
EXAMPLE
2.1
An industrial engineer received a bonus of $12,000 that he will invest now. He wants
to calculate the equivalent value after 24 years, when he plans to use all the resulting
money as the down payment on an island vacation home. Assume a rate of return of 8%
per year for each of the 24 years. (a) Find the amount he can pay down, using both the
standard notation and the factor formula. (b) Use a computer to find the amount he can
pay down.
(a) Solution by Hand
The symbols and their values are
P $12,000
F?
i 8% per year
n 24 years
SECTION 2.1
51
EXAMPLE
Q-SOLVE
2.2
The recent enhancements made by Ipsco, Inc., to its large-diameter spiral pipe mill in
Regina are estimated to save $50,000 in reduced maintenance this year.
(a) If the steel maker considers these types of savings worth 20% per year, find the
equivalent value of this result after 5 years.
(b) If the $50,000 maintenance savings occurs now, find its equivalent value 3 years
earlier with interest at 20% per year.
(c) Develop a spreadsheet to answer the two parts above at compound rates of 20% and
5% per year. Additionally develop an Excel column chart indicating the equivalent
values at the three different times for both rate-of-return values.
Solution
(a) The cash flow diagram appears as in Figure 21a. The symbols and their values are
P $50,000
F?
n 5 years
F $50,000
n 3 years
Q-SOLVE
52
CHAPTER 2
FV(20%,5,,50000)
PV(20%,3,,50000)
(a)
PV(C5,3,,50000)
PV(D5,3,,50000)
FV(C5,5,0,50000)
(b)
Figure 22
(a) Q-Solve spreadsheet for Example 2.2(a) and (b); (b) complete spreadsheet with graphic, Example 2.2.
SECTION 2.1
53
EXAMPLE
2.3
An independent engineering consultant reviewed records and found that the cost of office
supplies varied as shown in the pie chart of Figure 23. If the engineer wants to know the
equivalent value in year 10 of only the three largest amounts, what is it at an interest rate
of 5% per year?
Year 1
Year 2
Year 0
$175
$600
$300
$135
$250
$400
Year 3
Year 4
Figure 23
Pie chart of costs, Example 2.3.
Year 5
Q-SOLVE
E-SOLVE
54
CHAPTER 2
F=?
i = 5%
$300
10
$400
$600
Figure 24
Diagram for a future worth in year 10, Example 2.3.
Solution
Draw the cash flow diagram for the values $600, $300, and $400 from the engineers perspective (Figure 24). Use FP factors to find F in year 10.
F 600(F P, 5%,10) 300(F P, 5%, 8) 400(F P, 5%, 5)
600(1.6289) 300(1.4775) 400(1.2763)
$1931.11
The problem could also be solved by finding the present worth in year 0 of the $300
and $400 costs using the PF factors and then finding the future worth of the total in
year 10.
P 600 300(PF, 5%, 2) 400(PF, 5%, 5)
600 300(0.9070) 400(0.7835)
$1185.50
F 1185.50(F P, 5%,10) 1185.50(1.6289)
$1931.06
Comment
It should be obvious that there are a number of ways the problem could be worked, since
any year could be used to find the equivalent total of the costs before finding the future
value in year 10. As an exercise, work the problem using year 5 for the equivalent total
and then determine the final amount in year 10. All answers should be the same except for
round-off error.
2.2
SECTION 2.2
P= ?
P = given
i = given
55
n2
i = given
n1
A = given
(a)
n2
A=?
(b)
Figure 25
Cash flow diagrams used to determine (a) P of a uniform series and (b) A for a present worth.
1
1
A
A
n 1
n
(1 i)
(1 i)
The terms in brackets are the PF factors for years 1 through n, respectively.
Factor out A.
1
1
1
1
1
P A
1
2
3
n 1
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)n [2.4]
(1 i)
To simplify Equation [2.4] and obtain the PA factor, multiply the n-term
geometric progression in brackets by the (PF,i%,1) factor, which is 1(1i).
This results in Equation [2.5] below. Then subtract the two equations, [2.4] from
[2.5], and simplify to obtain the expression for P when i 0 (Equation [2.6]).
This progression follows.
1
P
1
1
1
1
A
2
3
4
n
n 1 [2.5]
1 i
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
1
1
1
1
1
P A
2
3
n
n 1
1 i
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
1
1
1
1
P A
1
2
n 1
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)n
(1 i)
i
1
1
P A
n 1
1 i
(1 i)1
(1 i)
P
A 1
1
i (1 i)n
n1
56
CHAPTER 2
(1 i ) n 1
P A
n
i(1 i )
i0
[2.6]
n
(1 i ) 1
The term in brackets is called the capital recovery factor (CRF), or AP factor.
It calculates the equivalent uniform annual worth A over n years for a given P in
year 0, when the interest rate is i.
These formulas are derived with the present worth P and the first uniform annual amount A one year (period) apart. That is, the present worth
P must always be located one period prior to the first A.
The factors and their use to find P and A are summarized in Table 22, and inside
the front cover. The standard notations for these two factors are (PA,i%,n) and
(AP,i%,n). Tables 1 through 29 at the end of the text include the factor values.
As an example, if i 15% and n 25 years, the PA factor value from Table 19
is (PA,15%,25) 6.4641. This will find the equivalent present worth at 15%
per year for any amount A that occurs uniformly from years 1 through 25. When
the bracketed relation in Equation [2.6] is used to calculate the PA factor, the
result is the same except for round-off errors.
(P A,15%, 25)
T A BLE
22
Notation
Name
Find/Given
Factor
Formula
Standard
Notation Equation
Excel
Function
(PA,i,n)
Uniform-series
present worth
PA
(1 i)n 1
i(1 i)n
P A(PA,i,n)
PV(i%,n,A)
(AP,i,n)
Capital recovery
AP
i(1 i)n
(1 i)n 1
A P(AP,i,n)
PMT(i%,n,P)
SECTION 2.2
Q-SOLVE
PV(i%,n,A,F)
Similarly, the A value is determined using the PMT function for a given P value
in year 0 and a separate F, if given. The format is
PMT(i%,n,P,F)
The PMT function was demonstrated in Section 1.18 (Figure 15b) and is used
in later examples. Table 22 includes the PV and PMT functions for P and A,
respectively. Example 2.4 demonstrates the PV function.
EXAMPLE
2.4
How much money should you be willing to pay now for a guaranteed $600 per year for 9
years starting next year, at a rate of return of 16% per year?
Solution
The cash flow diagram (Figure 26) fits the PA factor. The present worth is:
P 600(PA,16%,9) 600(4.6065) $2763.90
The PV function PV(16%,9,600) entered into a single spreadsheet cell will display the
answer P $2763.93.
A = $600
i = 16%
P=?
Figure 26
Diagram to find P using the PA factor, Example 2.4.
Comment
Another solution approach is to use PF factors for each of the nine receipts and add
the resulting present worths to get the correct answer. Another way is to find the future
worth F of the $600 payments and then find the present worth of the F value. There are
many ways to solve an engineering economy problem. Only the most direct method is
presented here.
Q-SOLVE
57
58
CHAPTER 2
2.3
The simplest way to derive the AF factor is to substitute into factors already
developed. If P from Equation [2.3] is substituted into Equation [2.7], the following formula results.
1 i(1 i)n
A F
n
n
(1 i) (1 i) 1
i
A F
n
(1 i ) 1
[2.8]
F = given
i = given
i = given
0
n2
n1
n2
A=?
A = given
(a)
(b)
Figure 27
Cash flow diagrams to (a) find A, given F, and (b) find F, given A.
n1
SECTION 2.3
T ABLE
23
Notation
59
Name
Factor
Formula
Find/Given
(FA,i,n)
Uniform-series
compound amount
FA
(AF,i,n)
Sinking fund
AF
(1 i)n 1
i
i
(1 + i)n 1
Standard
Notation Equation
F A(FA,i,n)
A F(AF,i,n)
Excel
Functions
FV(i%,n,A)
PMT(i%,n,,F)
AW method
Sec. 6.2
FV(i%,n,A,P)
The P may be omitted when no separate present worth value is given. The PMT
function determines the A value for n years, given F in year n, and possibly a
separate P value in year 0. The format is
PMT(i%,n,P,F)
If P is omitted, the comma must be entered so the computer knows the last entry
is an F value. These functions are included in Table 23. The next two examples
include the FV and PMT functions.
EXAMPLE
2.5
Formasa Plastics has major fabrication plants in Toronto and Hong Kong. The president
wants to know the equivalent future worth of a $1 million capital investment each year for
8 years, starting 1 year from now. Formasa capital earns at a rate of 14% per year.
Q-SOLVE
60
CHAPTER 2
Solution
The cash flow diagram (Figure 28) shows the annual payments starting at the end of year
1 and ending in the year the future worth is desired. Cash flows are indicated in $1000
units. The F value in 8 years is
F 1000(FA,14%,8) 1000(13.2328) $13,232.80
Q-SOLVE
Figure 28
Diagram to find F
for a uniform series,
Example 2.5.
i = 14%
A = $1000
EXAMPLE
2.6
How much money must Carol deposit every year starting 1 year from now at 5 1 2 % per
year in order to accumulate $6000 seven years from now?
Solution
The cash flow diagram from Carols perspective (Figure 29a) fits the AF factor.
A $6000(AF,5.5%,7) 6000(0.12096) $725.76 per year
The AF factor value of 0.12096 was computed using the factor formula in Equation [2.8].
Alternatively, use the PMT function as shown in Figure 29b to obtain A $725.79
per year.
Q-SOLVE
F = $6000
1
i = 52 %
0
A=?
(a)
Figure 29
(a) Cash flow diagram and (b) PMT function to determine A, Example 2.6.
SECTION 2.4
61
PMT(5.5%,7,,6000)
(b)
Figure 29
(Continued).
2.4
When it is necessary to locate a factor value for an i or n not in the interest tables,
the desired value can be obtained in one of two ways: (1) by using the formulas
derived in Sections 2.1 to 2.3 or (2) by linearly interpolating between the tabulated values. It is generally easier and faster to use the formulas from a calculator
or spreadsheet that has them preprogrammed. Furthermore, the value obtained
through linear interpolation is not exactly correct, since the equations are nonlinear. Nevertheless, interpolation is sufficient in most cases as long as the values of
i or n are not too distant from one another.
The first step in linear interpolation is to set up the known (values 1 and 2)
and unknown factors, as shown in Table 24. A ratio equation is then set up and
solved for c, as follows:
a c
b d
or
a
c d
b
[2.10]
where a, b, c, and d represent the differences between the numbers shown in the
interest tables. The value of c from Equation [2.10] is added to or subtracted from
value 1, depending on whether the factor is increasing or decreasing in value,
respectively. The following examples illustrate the procedure just described.
24 Linear Interpolation Setup
i or n
Factor
a tabulated
desired
b
tabulated
value 1
unlisted
value 2
TABLE
62
CHAPTER 2
EXAMPLE
2.7
Determine the value of the AP factor for an interest rate of 7.3% and n of 10 years, that
is, (AP,7.3%,10).
Solution
The values of the AP factor for interest rates of 7 and 8% and n 10 are listed in
Tables 12 and 13, respectively.
0.14238
X
0.14903
7%
7.3%
8%
0.3
(0.00665) 0.00199
1
Since the factor is increasing in value as the interest rate increases from 7 to 8%, the value
of c must be added to the value of the 7% factor. Thus,
X 0.14238 0.00199 0.14437
Comment
It is good practice to check the reasonableness of the final answer by verifying that X
lies between the values of the known factors in approximately the correct proportions.
In this case, since 0.14437 is less than 0.5 of the distance between 0.14238 and 0.14903,
the answer seems reasonable. If Equation [2.7] is applied, the exact factor value is
0.144358.
2.8
Find the value of the (PF,4%,48) factor.
Solution
From Table 9 for 4% interest, the values of the PF factor for 45 and 50 years are found.
0.1712
48
50
0.1407
45
EXAMPLE
SECTION 2.5
63
Since the value of the factor decreases as n increases, c is subtracted from the factor value
for n 45.
X 0.1712 0.0183 0.1529
Comment
Though it is possible to perform two-way linear interpolation, it is much easier and more
accurate to use the factor formula or a spreadsheet function.
2.5
n1
Figure 210
Diagram of an arithmetic
gradient series with a
base amount of $1500
and a gradient of $50.
$1500
$1550
$1600
$1650
$1500
+ (n 2)50 $1500
+ (n 1)50
64
CHAPTER 2
Figure 211
n1
Conventional arithmetic
gradient series without
the base amount.
G
2G
3G
4G
(n 2)G
(n 1)G
2.9
A sports apparel company has initiated a logo-licensing program. It expects to realize a
revenue of $80,000 in fees next year from the sale of its logo. Fees are expected to increase
uniformly to a level of $200,000 in 9 years. Determine the arithmetic gradient and construct the cash flow diagram.
Solution
The base amount is $80,000 and the total revenue increase is
Increase in 9 years 200, 000 80, 000 120, 000
Gradient
increase
n 1
120, 000
$15, 000 per year
9 1
$200,000
$185,000
$170,000
$155,000
$140,000
$125,000
$110,000
$95,000
$80,000
Figure 212
Diagram for gradient series, Example 2.9.
Year
SECTION 2.5
65
In this text, three factors are derived for arithmetic gradients: the PG factor
for present worth, the AG factor for annual series and the FG factor for future
worth. There are several ways to derive them. We use the single-payment present
worth factor (PF,i,n), but the same result can be obtained using the FP, FA,
or PA factor.
In Figure 211, the present worth at year 0 of only the gradient is equal to the
sum of the present worths of the individual values, where each value is considered a future amount.
P G(PF, i, 2) 2G(PF, i, 3) 3G(PF, i, 4) . . .
(n 2)G (PF, i, n 1) (n 1)G (PF, i, n)
Factor out G and use the PF formula.
1
2
3
n2
n 1
PG
. . .
2
3
4
n 1
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)n
(1 i)
[2.11]
n2
1
2
3
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)n 1
(1 i)
[2.12]
Subtract Equation [2.11] from Equation [2.12] and simplify.
1
n
1
1
1
iP G
. . .
G
1
2
n 1
n
n
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
(1 i)
[2.13]
The left bracketed expression is the same as that contained in Equation [2.4],
where the PA factor was derived. Substitute the closed-end form of the PA
factor from Equation [2.6] into Equation [2.13] and solve for P to obtain a
simplified relation.
P
G (1 i ) n 1
n
i i(1 i ) n
(1 i ) n
[2.14]
or
1 (1 i)n 1
n
(PG, i, n)
n
i i(1 i)
(1 i)n
(1 i)n in 1
(PG, i, n)
i 2 (1 i)n
[2.15]
Remember: The gradient starts in year 2 and P is located in year 0. Equation [2.14]
expressed as an engineering economy relation is
P G(PG, i, n)
[2.16]
66
CHAPTER 2
Figure 213
Conversion diagram from
an arithmetic gradient to a
present worth.
P=?
i = given
0
n1
n1
G
2G
3G
(n 2)G
(n 1)G
(a)
(b)
G (1 i)n 1
n i(1 i)n
n
i i(1 i)
(1 i)n (1 i)n 1
n
G
n
i (1 i ) 1
[2.17]
A=?
i = given
0
n1
n
0
G
2G
3G
(n 2)G
(n 1)G
(a)
(b)
n1
SECTION 2.5
67
F G
n
i
i
The total present worth PT for a gradient series must consider the base and the
gradient separately. Thus, for cash flow series involving conventional gradients:
The base amount is the uniform-series amount A that begins in year 1 and
extends through year n. Its present worth is represented by PA.
For an increasing gradient, the gradient amount must be added to the
uniform-series amount. The present worth is PG.
For a decreasing gradient, the gradient amount must be subtracted from the
uniform-series amount. The present worth is PG.
The general equations for calculating total present worth PT of conventional
arithmetic gradients are
PT PA PG
and
PT PA PG
[2.18]
AT AA AG
[2.19]
and
where AA is the annual base amount and AG is the equivalent annual amount of
the gradient series.
EXAMPLE
2.10
CN Rail is considering the deposit of $500,000 in an account for the repair of old and
safety-questionable bridges in British Columbia. Further, they estimate that the deposits
will increase by $100,000 per year for only 9 years thereafter, then cease. Determine the
equivalent (a) present worth and (b) annual series amounts if the funds earn interest at a
rate of 5% per year.
Solution
(a) The cash flow diagram from CNs perspective is shown in Figure 215. Two
computations must be made and added: the first for the present worth of the
base amount PA and a second for the present worth of the gradient PG. The
total resent worth PT occurs in year 0. This is illustrated by the partitioned
cash flow diagram in Figure 216. In $1000 units, the present worth, from
Q-SOLVE
68
CHAPTER 2
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
10
$1400
Figure 215
Cash flow series with a conventional arithmetic gradient (in $1000 units), Example 2.10.
PA = ?
PG = ?
A = $500
1 2
9 10
G = $100
1 2
9 10
+
$100
Base
Gradient
$900
PT = ?
PT = PA + PG
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
Figure 216
Partitioned cash flow diagram (in $1000 units), Example 2.10.
$1200
$1300
10
$1400
SECTION 2.6
69
Equation [2.18], is
PT 500(P A, 5%,10) 100(PG, 5%,10)
500(7.7217) 100(31.652)
$7026.05
(b) Here, too, it is necessary to consider the gradient and the base amount separately.
The total annual series AT is found by using Equation [2.19].
AT 500 100( AG,5%,10) 500 100(4.0991)
$909.91 per year
($909, 910)
($909, 870)
2.6
It is common for cash flow series, such as operating costs, construction costs, and
revenues, to increase or decrease from period to period by a constant percentage,
for example, 5% per year. This uniform rate of change defines a geometric gradient
series of cash flows. In addition to the symbols i and n used thus far, we now need
the term
g constant rate of change, in decimal form, by which amounts
increase or decrease from one period to the next
Figure 217 presents cash flow diagrams for geometric gradient series with increasing and decreasing uniform rates. The series starts in year 1 at an initial amount A1,
which is not considered a base amount as in the arithmetic gradient. The relation to
determine the total present worth Pg for the entire cash flow series may be derived
by multiplying each cash flow in Figure 217a by the PF factor 1(1i)n.
Pg
A1
A1(1 g) A1(1 g)2 . . . A1(1 g)n 1
(1 i)1
(1 i)2
(1 i)3
(1 i)n
1
1 g
(1 g)2 . . . (1 g)n 1
A1
2
(1 i)3
(1 i)n
1 i (1 i)
[2.20]
70
CHAPTER 2
Pg = ?
i = given
g = given
i = given
g = given
0
A1
A1(1 g)3
A1(1 g)2
A1(1 g)
A1(1 + g)
A1(1 + g)2
A1(1 + g)3
A1(1 + g)n 1
A1(1 g)n 1
A1
(a)
(b)
Figure 217
Cash flow diagram of (a) increasing and (b) decreasing geometric gradient series and present worth Pg.
Multiply both sides by (1g)(1i), subtract Equation [2.20] from the result,
factor out Pg, and obtain
(1 g)n
1 g
1
1 A1
Pg
n 1
1 i
1 i
(1 i)
Solve for Pg and simplify.
Pg A1
1 g
1
1 i
ig
gi
[2.21]
(1 i)
(1 i) (1 i) (1 i)
The term 1(1 i) appears n times, so
Pg
nA1
(1 i)
[2.22]
In summary, the engineering economy relation and factor formulas to calculate Pg in period t 0 for a geometric gradient series starting in period 1 in the
amount A1 and increasing by a constant rate of g each period are
Pg A1 ( P A, g, i, n)
n
1 g
1
1 i
gi
( PA, g, i, n)
i g
n
gi
1 i
[2.23]
[2.24]
SECTION 2.6
71
EXAMPLE
2.11
Engineers at La Ronde, the large amusement park in Montreal, are considering an innovation on the existing Monster roller coaster to make it more exciting. The modification costs
only $8000 and is expected to last 6 years with a $1300 salvage value for the solenoid
mechanisms. The maintenance cost is expected to be high at $1700 the first year, increasing by 11% per year thereafter. Determine the equivalent present worth of the modification
and maintenance cost by hand and by computer. The interest rate is 8% per year.
Solution by Hand
The cash flow diagram (Figure 218) shows the salvage value as a positive cash flow
and all costs as negative. Use Equation [2.24] for g i to calculate Pg. The total PT is
PT 8000 Pg 1300(PF, 8%, 6)
1 (1.111.08)6
8000 1700
1300(PF, 8%, 6)
0.08 0.11
8000 1700(5.9559) 819.26 $17, 305.85
[2.25]
Figure 218
PT = ?
i = 8%
g = 11%
1
$1700
$1300
4
$1700(1.11)
$1700(1.11)2
$8000
$1700(1.11)3
$1700(1.11)4
$1700(1.11)5
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CHAPTER 2
E-SOLVE
Solution by Computer
Figure 219 presents a spreadsheet with the total present worth in cell B13. The function used
to determine PT $17,305.89 is detailed in the cell tag. It is a rewrite of Equation [2.25].
Since it is complex, column C and D cells also contain the three elements of PT, which are
summed in D13 to obtain the same result.
PV(B11,B7,0,B8)
SUM(D6:D12)
((1((1B10)/(1B11))^B7)/(B11B10))
B6B9*((1((1B10)/(1B11))^B7)/(B11B10))PV(B11,B7,0,B8)
Figure 219
Spreadsheet used to determine present worth of a geometric gradient with g 11%, Example 2.11.
2.7
Find i
Sec. 2.9
Chap.
7
In some cases, the amount of money deposited and the amount of money received
after a specified number of years are known, and it is the interest rate or rate of
return that is unknown. When single amounts, uniform series, or a uniform conventional gradient is involved, the unknown rate i can be determined by direct solution
of the time value of money equation. When nonuniform payments or several factors
are involved, the problem must be solved by a trial-and-error or numerical method.
These more complicated problems are deferred until Chapter 7.
The single-payment formulas can be easily rearranged and expressed in terms
of i, but for the uniform series and gradient equations, it is easier to solve for
the value of the factor and determine the interest rate from interest factor tables.
Both situations are illustrated in the examples that follow.
SECTION 2.7
EXAMPLE
73
2.12
If Laurel can make an investment in a friends business of $3000 now in order to receive
$5000 five years from now, determine the rate of return. If Laurel can receive 7% per year
interest on a guaranteed investment certificate, which investment should be made?
Solution
Since only single payment amounts are involved, i can be determined directly from the
PF factor.
1
P F (PF, i, n) F
(1 i)n
3000 5000
0.600
1
(1 i)5
1
(1 i)5
0.2
1
i
1 0.1076 (10.76%)
0.6
Alternatively, the interest rate can be found by setting up the standard notation PF relation,
solving for the factor value, and interpolating in the tables.
P F (PF, i, n)
$3000 5000(PF, i, 5)
(PF, i, 5)
3000
0.60
5000
From the interest tables, a PF factor of 0.6000 for n 5 lies between 10 and 11%.
Interpolate between these two values to obtain i 10.76%.
Since 10.76% is greater than the 7% available from a guaranteed investment certificate,
Laurel should make the business investment. Since the higher rate of return would be received on the business investment, Laurel would probably select this option instead of the
investment certificate. However, the degree of risk associated with the business investment
was not specified. Obviously, risk is an important parameter that may cause selection of the
lower rate of return investment. Unless specified to the contrary, equal risk for all alternatives
is assumed in this text.
The IRR spreadsheet function is one of the most useful of all those available.
IRR means internal rate of return, which is a topic unto itself, discussed in detail
in Chapter 7. However, even at this early stage of engineering economic analysis,
the IRR function can be used beneficially to find the interest rate (or rate of return)
for any cash flow series that is entered into a series of contiguous spreadsheet cells,
vertical or horizontal. It is very important that any years (periods) with a zero cash
flow have an entry of 0 in the cell. A cell left blank is not sufficient, because an
incorrect value of i will be displayed by the IRR function. The basic format is
IRR(first_cell:last_cell)
E-SOLVE
74
CHAPTER 2
The first_cell and last_cell are the cell references for the start and end of the cash
flow series. Example 2.13 illustrates the IRR function.
The RATE function, also very useful, is an alternative to IRR. RATE is a
one-cell function that displays the compound interest rate (or rate of return) only
when the annual cash flows, that is, A values, are the same. Present and future
values different from the A value can be entered. The format is
RATE(number_years,A,P,F)
Q-SOLVE
The F value does not include the amount A that occurs in year n. No entry into
spreadsheet cells of each cash flow is necessary to use RATE, so it should be
used whenever there is a uniform series over n years with associated P and/or F
values stated. Example 2.13 illustrates the RATE function.
EXAMPLE
2.13
Professional Engineers, Inc., requires that $500 per year be placed into a sinking fund
account to cover any unexpected major rework on field equipment. In one case, $500 was
deposited for 15 years and covered a rework costing $10,000 in year 15. What rate of return
did this practice provide to the company? Solve by hand and by computer.
Solution by Hand
The cash flow diagram is shown in Figure 220. Either the AF or FA factor can be used.
Using AF,
A F ( AF, i, n)
500 10, 000( AF, i,15)
( AF, i,15) 0.0500
From interest Tables 8 and 9 under the AF column for 15 years, the value 0.0500 lies
between 3 and 4%. By interpolation, i3.98%. (This is considered a low return for an
engineering project.)
F = $10,000
i=?
0
Figure 220
10
11
12
13
14 15
A = $500
Solution by Computer
Refer to the cash flow diagram (Figure 220) while completing the spreadsheet (Figure 221).
A single-cell solution using the RATE function can be applied since A $500 occurs each
year and the F $10,000 value takes place in the last year of the series. Cell A3 contains the
function RATE(15,500,,10000), and the answer displayed is 3.98%. The minus sign on
SECTION 2.8
500 indicates the annual deposit. The extra comma is necessary to indicate that no P value
is present. This function is fast, but it allows only limited sensitivity analysis; all the A
values have to change by the same amount. The IRR function is much better for answering
What if? questions.
To apply the IRR function and obtain the same answer, enter the value 0 in a cell (for year
0), followed by 500 for 14 years and 9500 (from 10,000 500) in year 15. Figure 221
contains these numbers in cells D2 through D17. In any cell on the spreadsheet, enter the
IRR function IRR(D2:D17). The answer i 3.98% is displayed in cell E3. It is advisable
to enter the year numbers 0 through n (15 in this example) in the column immediately to the
left of the cash flow entries. The IRR function does not need these numbers, but it makes
the cash flow entry activity easier and more accurate. Now any cash flow can be changed,
and a new rate will be displayed immediately via IRR.
RATE(15,500,,10000)
IRR(D2:D17)
Figure 221
Spreadsheet solution for rate of return using the RATE and IRR functions, Example 2.13.
2.8
75
Q-SOLVE
E-SOLVE
76
CHAPTER 2
EXAMPLE
2.14
How long will it take for $1000 to double if the interest rate is 5% per year?
Solution
The n value can be determined using either the FP or PF factor. Using the PF factor,
P F (PF, i, n)
1000 2000(PF, 5%, n)
(PF, 5%, n) 0.500
Q-SOLVE
In the 5% interest table, the value 0.500 lies between 14 and 15 years. By interpolation,
n 14.2 years. Use the function NPER(5%,0,1000,2000) to display an n value of 14.21
years.
2.9
2.15
E-SOLVE
SECTION 2.9
(b) The engineer and doctor estimate that they will need $500,000 per year for more
than 4 additional years. How many years from now do they have to finish their
development work and receive the $5 million licence fee to make at least 10% per
year? Assume the $500,000 per year is expended through the year immediately prior
to the receipt for the $5 million.
Solution by Computer
Figure 222 presents the spreadsheet, with all financial values in $1000 units. The IRR
function is used throughout.
(a) The function IRR(B6:B11) in cell B15 displays i 24.07%. Note there is a cash
flow of $500 in year 0. The equivalence statement is: Spending $500,000 now and
$500,000 each year for 4 more years is equivalent to receiving $5 million at the end
of year 5, when the interest rate is 24.07% per year.
(b) Find the rate of return for an increasing number of years that the $500 is expended.
Columns C and D in Figure 222 present the results of IRR functions with the $5000
cash flow in different years. Cells C15 and D15 show returns on opposite sides of
10%. Therefore, the $5 million must be received some time prior to the end of year 7
to make more than the 8.93% shown in cell D15. The engineer and doctor have less
than 6 years to complete their development work.
IRR(B6:B11)
IRR(C6:C12)
Figure 222
Spreadsheet solution including sensitivity analysis, Example 2.15.
IRR(D6:D13)
77
78
CHAPTER 2
ADDITIONAL EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE
2.16
P, F, AND A CALCULATIONS
Explain why the uniform series factors cannot be used to compute P or F directly for any
of the cash flows shown in Figure 223.
$100
$100
$100
$100
Figure 223
Sample cash
flow diagrams,
Example 2.16.
P=?
(a)
A = $550
5
F=?
(b)
$1300
$1200
$1100
A = $1000
PG = ?
(c)
$150
$100
$150
3
F=?
(d)
Solution
(a) The PA factor cannot be used to compute P since the $100 per year receipt does
not occur each year from 1 through 5.
79
PROBLEMS
(b) Since there is no A $550 in year 5, the FA factor cannot be used. The relation F
550(FA,i,4) would furnish the future worth in year 4, not year 5.
(c) The first gradient amount G $100 occurs in year 3. Use of the relation
PG 100(PG,i%,4) will compute PG in year 1, not year 0. (The present worth of
the base amount of $1000 is not included here.)
(d) The receipt values are unequal; thus the relation F A(FA,i,3) cannot be used to
compute F.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Formulas and factors derived and applied in this chapter perform equivalence
calculations for present, future, annual, and gradient cash flows. Capability in
using these formulas and their standard notation manually and with spreadsheets
is critical to complete an engineering economy study. Using these formulas and
spreadsheet functions, you can convert single cash flows into uniform cash flows,
gradients into present worths, and much more. You can solve for rate of return
i or time n. A thorough understanding of how to manipulate cash flows using the
material in this chapter will help you address financial questions in professional
practice as well as in everyday living.
PROBLEMS
Use of Interest Tables
2.1 Find the correct numerical value for the
80
CHAPTER 2
ning to set aside $150,000 now for possibly replacing its large synchronous refiner
motors whenever it becomes necessary. If
the replacement isnt needed for 7 years,
how much will the company have in its
investment set-aside account if it achieves
a rate of return of 18% per year?
2.7 French car maker Renault signed a
gas turbines to power 11 DD-class destroyers for the Japanese Self-Defense Force.
The buyer can pay the total contract
price of $1,700,000 now or an equivalent
amount 1 year from now (when the turbines will be needed). At an interest rate of
18% per year, what is the equivalent future
amount?
2.10 What is the present worth of a future cost
PROBLEMS
81
now on the new technology if the annual consulting services will no longer be
needed? Assume the park uses an interest
rate of 15% per year and it wants to recover its investment in 5 years.
2.20 Under an agreement with the Internet
enough money to purchase a new tractor-trailer in 3 years. If the unit will cost
$250,000, how much should the company
set aside each year if the account earns 9%
per year?
2.24 Vision Technologies, Inc., is a small com-
82
CHAPTER 2
total equivalent future amount of the companys expenses at the end of 3 years?
Factor Values
2.25 Find the numerical value of the following
2.30 Omega
group of stripper wells (wells that produce less than 10 barrels per day) to decline according to an arithmetic gradient
of $50,000 per year. This years receipts
are expected to be $280,000 (i.e., end of
year 1), and the company expects the useful life of the wells to be 5 years. (a) What
is the amount of the cash flow in year 3,
and (b) what is the equivalent uniform
annual worth in years 1 through 5 of the
income from the wells at an interest rate
of 12% per year?
2.32 Income from cardboard recycling at Moose
83
PROBLEMS
0
1
2
3
4
0 $2000 2000G 20002G 20003G
Geometric Gradient
2.39 Assume you were told to prepare a table of
employees a salary enhancement package that has revenue sharing as its main
component. Specifically, the company will
set aside 1% of total sales for year-end bonuses for all its employees. The sales are
expected to be $5 million the first year,
$6 million the second year, and amounts
increasing by 20% each year for the next
84
CHAPTER 2
equivalent to a 12% per year simple interest rate over a 15-year period?
2.50 A publicly traded consulting engineering
PROBLEMS
85
company recovers its investment at an
interest rate of 12% per year?
2.58 An engineer who invested very well plans
has averaged an 18% annual rate of return since he bought it two years ago with
$100,000. In the unlikely event that these
stellar results should continue, how long
will it be (from the time he started) before
he can retire with $1.6 million?
2.61 How many years will it take for a uniform
investment of $10,000 in year 1 with increases of 10% per year to have a present
worth of $1,000,000 at an interest rate of
7% per year?
2.63 You were told that a certain cash flow
86
CHAPTER 2
CASE STUDY
WHAT A DIFFERENCE THE YEARS AND COMPOUND INTEREST CAN MAKE
Stock Option Program Purchase
A young B.Eng. graduate from the Dalhousie Faculty of
Engineering went to work for a microelectronics company at the age of 22 and placed $50 per month into the
stock purchase option. He left the company after a full
60 months of employment at age 27, and he did not sell
the stock. The engineer did not inquire about the value
of the stock until age 57, some 30 years later.
1. Construct the cash flow diagram for ages 22
through 57.
2. The engineer has learned that over the 35 intervening years, the stock earned at a rate of 1.25% per
month. Determine the value of the $50 per month
when the engineer left the company after a total of
60 purchases.