Corporate Finance

Final project:
The Air transportation industry

Submitted by:
Andrea Trozzi
Braulio Serna
David Calvo Platero
Dimitar Petrov
New York University
New York
May2, 2005

Company

Risk Characteristics

Investment Performance

American
Airlines

6.26

-5.92%

35.00%

n.m.

ROC WACC
8.15%

Ryanair

1.24

27.35%

27.00%

BAA

1.42

4.43%

7.00%

Asur

0.82

28.42%

15.00%

5.24%
2.80%
3.23%

2.01%
2.27%
3.53%

Approach

Beta

Jensen's
Alpha

R
squared

ROE COE

Capital
Structure

Dividend Policy

EVA

Current
Debt
ratio

Optimal
Debt
Ratio

(1,129.50)

86.65%

20.00%

53.30

23.87%

10.00%

(191.00)

44.86%

45.00%

(37.30)

0.00%

20.00%

Change
in
WACC
7.06%
0.04%
0.00%
0.54%

Valuations

Duration

Dividends

FCFE

Value/share

Price/Share

765.3

10.06

10.20

5.3

23.5205

6.76

5.55

3.3

145

257.1

3.22

5.80

14.3

41.2

31.69

30.45

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................... 3
INTRODUCTION AND THE COMPANIES........................................................................ 4
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4
2. Brief description of the companies .................................................................................................................................. 6

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ANALYSIS ...................................................................... 8

1. Balance of power between management and shareholders.......................................................................................... 8
2. Management compensation.............................................................................................................................................. 9
3. Market coverage................................................................................................................................................................ 11
4. Social responsibility.......................................................................................................................................................... 12

STOCKHOLDER ANALYSIS.......................................................................................... 14
RISK PROFILE ............................................................................................................... 16
1. Market risk and return...................................................................................................................................................... 16
2. Bottom up betas................................................................................................................................................................ 20
3. Cost of equity .................................................................................................................................................................... 22
4. Cost of debt........................................................................................................................................................................ 23
5. Cost of capital.................................................................................................................................................................... 25

INVESTMENT RETURN ANALYSIS............................................................................... 27

1. Typical project................................................................................................................................................................... 27
2. Measuring Returns ........................................................................................................................................................... 28
3. Future outlook................................................................................................................................................................... 30

CAPITAL STRUCTURE CHOICES................................................................................. 33

1. Current financing mix ...................................................................................................................................................... 33
2. Trade off on Debt and Equity......................................................................................................................................... 35

OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE................................................................................. 37

1. Current Cost of Capital / Financing Mix ...................................................................................................................... 37
2. Cost of Capital at Different Financing Mixes............................................................................................................... 37
3. Firm Value at Optimal ..................................................................................................................................................... 38
4. Optimal capital structure APV approcah ................................................................................................................... 40
5. Sector and market debt ratios ......................................................................................................................................... 42

MECHANICS OF MOVING TOWARDS THE OPTIMAL................................................. 43

1. A Path to the Optimal...................................................................................................................................................... 43
2. Quantitative Analysis and Overall Recommendation on Financing Mix................................................................. 43
3. Summary of desirable debt charachteristics ................................................................................................................. 47

DIVIDEND POLICY ......................................................................................................... 48

1. Current Dividend Policy .................................................................................................................................................. 48

DIVIDEND POLICY: A FRAMEWORK ........................................................................... 51

1. Affordable Dividends........................................................................................................................................................ 51
2. Management Trust and Changing Dividend Policy ................................................................................................... 51

VALUATION.................................................................................................................... 54
1. Valuation models .............................................................................................................................................................. 54
2. Valuation assumptions and inputs................................................................................................................................. 54
3. Valuation results .............................................................................................................................................................. 57

I.

Executive Summary

Corporate Governance and Stockholder analysis

We believe that the stockholders interests are generally well protected in the companies
subject to our review with the exception of American Airlines, which has some controversial
corporate governance practices in place. The marginal investor in all companies is well diversified,
often internationally, investors. In three out the four companies there were significantly large
institutional holdings.
Risk Profile
We used two measures of bete to estimate the exposure of each company to market risk. Not
surprisingly, the results reflect the fundamental characteristics of each company and in particular
variance of earnings and leverage. The riskiest company as measured by historical regression beta is
American Airlines and the least risky BAA. Because of the historical character of the regressions
beta and high standard errors of the estimates we used bottom-up betas in our further analysis.
In addition, we used two methods to compute returns of each company with relation to its risk
Jensens Alpha and Treynor ratio. Under both methods the top performing companies were Ryanair
and Asur.
Investment analysis
In analyzing the returns of the investment projects at which companies we looked at a typical
project in each line of business and computed accounting measures of returns, such as ROC and
ROE. Ryanair proved to be the company with highest returns and it was the only company that
generated positive EVA. In addition we assessed the future prospects of each company, analyzing the
sustainability of its competitive advantages. This analysis was used as a basis for the valuation of the
firms.
Capital structure
The four companies adopt very different policies with regards to their capital structure,
ranging from the highly overlevered American Airlines (debt ratio of 87%) to the all equity financed
Asur. Taking into account the potential benefits and disadvantages from the use of debt we computed
optimal capital structures for each firm and assessed the impact on the share price from moving from
the current capital structure to the optimal. The result was an average of 8.12% increase in the firm

value of the firms, although most of this increase comes from American Airlines. It was interesting to
find that BAAs current debt ratio is equal to its optimum roughly 45%.
Dividend policy
Both Amrican Airlines and Ryanair are non-dividend paying companies, although for very
different reason. While focus of AAs policies is to return to profitability before being able to afford
any dividends, Ryanair exhibits a great potential to invest in projects with positive excess returns
(ROC exceeds Cost of capital). BAA and Asur are companies with more steady and predictable cash
flows and reinvestment needs and this is reflected in their dividend policies. Our analysis is presented
in Sections X and XI.
Valuation
The results from our valuations are presented in the table below:
Valuation summary
Model Chosen
Value per Share
Current Stock Price
Undervalued / (overvalued)
Reccomendation

American
Airlines
FCFF 2 Stage
10.06
10.20
-1.3%
HOLD

Ryanair
FCFF 3 Stage
6.76
5.55
21.8%
BUY

BAA
FCFF 2 Stage
3.22
5.80
-44.4%
SELL

Asur
FCFF 2 Stage
31.69
30.45
4.1%
HOLD

Source: Analysis

The valuation models are based on the results from our analysis as presented in the following
pages.
II.

Introduction and the companies

1. Introduction
The current report examines major trends in the Air transportation sector focusing on four companies
in particular American Airlines (AA), Ryanair, BAA and Asur. The companies reviewed operate in
two different businesses, airlines industry (AA, Ryanair) and airport operators (BAA, Asur), utilize
different business models and are at different stage of their life cycle. The purpose of the report is to
analyze different aspects of their corporate finance policies and to assess the effect of these policies on
the value the managements of these firms create for their shareholders. Summary information for each
company is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1 Summary company information

American
Company information
Airlines
Country of incorporation
United States

Ryanair
Ireland

BAA

Asur
Mexico

NYSE

ISE

United Kingdom
London Stock
Exchange

Year of establishment

1926

1985

1965

1998

Year of stock exchange listing

1939

1997

2000

US dollar

Euro

1987
British pound

US dollar

Revenues in 2004 (MM local

currency)
Revenues in 2004 ($ equivalent1)

18,645

1,074

1,970

1,976

18,645

1,336

177

Book value of capital (MM 2004

local currency 2)
Book value of capital (2004 $
equivalent)

13,749

2,939

3,546
8,960

12,326

13,749

2,158

16,128

1,106

Primary listing

Reporting currency

NYSE

Throughout the report analysis has been presented based on information gathered from
various sources, including statutory filings with regulatory authorities in the respective jurisdiction,
company annual reports, management presentation and other publicly available information. We have
tried to acknowledge each source of information where possible. Figures and data that is not
referenced to any source has been result of our own analysis.
A list of commonly used terms and abbreviations is presented below:
Term
AA, AMR
BAA
BoD
BVE
BVD
D
E
Load Factor
MVE
MVD
n.a, N/A
n.m.
RAPM or Revenue Yield
T

1
2

Meaning
American Airlines
British Airport Authority
Board of Directors
Book value of equity
Book value of debt
Debt
Equity
Percentage of seats sold to total available seats
Market value of Equity
Market value of debt
Information not available
Information not meaningful
Revenues per passenger per mile
Tax rate

Translated using the average Local Currency/ Dollar rate for 2004
Translated using the closing local currency / Dollar rate as at 31 December 2004

For computational ease the analysis for each company has been undertaken in the reporting
currency under which the company reports annual results US dollars (for AA and Asur), Euro
(Ryanair), British pounds (BAA). All figures are in million local currency unless otherwise indicated.
2. Brief description of the companies
American Airlines
AMR was established in 1926 and had Charles Lindberg as chief pilot of its fleet of 3 DH 4 biplanes. The company was listed in 1939 and throughout the years grew on acquisitions and survived
several crisis (included World War II that forced them to turn half of the fleet to the military airline).
The company grew internationally and domestically especially after the deregulation act of 1978. In
2001, before September 11 acquired all the assets of TWA, but then was hit by an economic recession,
increased competition from low cost carriers and the terrorist attack.
Nowadays AMR Corporation is a holding company that provides scheduled passenger and
airfreight services to approximately 150 destinations in North America, the Caribbean, Latin America,
Europe and the Pacific through its American Airlines subsidiary. The Company in 2004 employed
roughly 92,000 people and its headquarter is at Dallas Forth Worth Airport, Texas. For the FY ended
12/31/04, revenues rose 7% to $18.65B. Net loss fell 38% to $761M. Results reflect higher affiliate
passenger revenues a decline in wage costs but also an increase in fuel costs.
Ryanair
Ryanair was founded in 1985 by the Ryan family in Ireland. It started with one scheduled flight
between south-eastern Ireland and London Gatwick. First crew members were required to be less
than 5 foot 2 inches tall in order to fit in the tiny cabin of the only 15-seater aircraft. Soon after its
launch, the company acquires permission to challenge British Airways and Aer Lingus on the Dublin
London route. The number of passengers grew from 5,000 to 82,000 in the first 2 year of operations.
The next few years are marked by growth in the number of routes and passengers between Ireland and
the United Kingdom. However, by 1990 the company had accumulated over

20 million in losses.

The Ryan family invested additional 20 million in capital in the business which went through
substantial financial and operational restructuring copying the South West Airlines model, Ryanair
was re-launched as Europes first low cost airline. This was a revolutionary new model for the
European air transportation market and some publications note that people queued up for three days
6

to get the Easter sale fares. The new model incorporated move towards same aircraft fleet, direct
sales, scrapping of drinks and food served on board and cutting turnaround time and costs. In 1995
the company launches the first low cost airfares on UK routes and in 1997 in Europe. In the same
year the company gets listed on the Irish Stock Exchange. Promotional fares of

1 on domestic and

European routes attracted the attention of passengers. Today, Ryanair is the largest European low cost
airline carrying over 7 million passengers annually on 220 routes across 19 countries. Operations are
concentrated in 12 European bases and the company employees over 2,600 employees.
BAA
BAA is engaged in the management and operation of airport facilities in the UK and overseas.
The company is headquartered in London, UK and has a workforce of about 12,500 employees. The
company owns seven UK airports: Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and
Southampton. BAA also has interests in 13 airports located in Italy, Australia, US and Oman. BAAs
airports in the UK and overseas serve 230 million passengers a year. The companys operations are
divided into the following segments: airports, retail, BAA Property, rail and other. The airport segment
primarily oversees terminal and airfield management. In the terminal management area, the company
looks after buildings, passenger services and cargo. In the airfield management division, the company
maintains and operates runways and taxiways. BAA also develops, manages and markets commercial
activities at its UK airports. BAAs UK airport retail activity is made up of two complementary
businesses: Retail management at UK airports and World Duty Free. Retail management at UK
airports involves the development, management and marketing of commercial activities at BAAs
seven UK airports. These include shopping, catering, financial services, travel, services, parking,
telecommunications and media management. The business specializes in luxury brands and operates
64 stores across the UK airports.
Asur
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (Asur) holds a concession from the Mexican government
to operate, maintain and develop nine airports in the, primarily touristic, Southeastern region of
Mexico. The companys main airport is the Cancun International Airport, which generates over 70%
of Asurs revenues and is the second busiest airport in Mexico. Cancun and the surrounding Mayan
Riviera, are Mexicos top tourist destination and among the fastest growing tourist developments in
the country. Asurs nine airports served more than 13.8 million passengers in 2004, of which around
7

60% were international passengers and 40% were domestic passengers. Approximately 70% of the
international passengers traveled on flights originating from the United States.

As of 2003, 17

Mexican and 45 international airlines operated directly or through code-sharing agreements from
Asurs airports.
Asur was established in 1998 as part of the Mexican governments airport privatization program,
which included three regional airport groups and the Mexico City International Airport. A private
consortium, ITA, led by Copenhagen Airports won the 50-year concession to operate the nine airports
in the Southeastern group. The consortium acquired a 15% stake in Asur, while the remaining shares
were floated in the NYSE and the Mexican Stock Exchange on October 3, 2000. The Mexican
government, through one of its development banks, Nafin, retained an 11.1% stake in Asur to be
floated on a future date. As the long-term operator of the airports, Asur generates revenues from two
main sources: aeronautical services and non-aeronautical services. The former account for 75% of
total revenues and are derived primarily from passenger and landing charges, aircraft parking charges,
and general airport services. Non-aeronautical services are divided into retail operations and access
fees charged to third-party providers of complementary services. While the aeronautical revenues are
heavily regulated by the Mexican government, the retail operations and access fees provide an
important growth opportunity for Asur. These have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of
22.9% since 1999, when they accounted for only 14% of total revenues.
Summary financial data for each company is presented in Appendix I.
III.

Corporate Governance Analysis

1. Balance of power between management and shareholders

We believe that the interests of shareholders are relatively well protected by the corporate
governance policies of the four companies analyzed, with the possible exception of American Airlines.
As an example at AA, directors are nominated for life and more than half are CEOs of other
companies, two of them in related businesses. A shareholder is challenging the lifetime rule at the
next general shareholders meeting in May. Recently, some board members and the CEO have raised
their own salaries.
Insiders are generally not overrepresented in the companies boards, while the CEOs tend to
have a long history with their companies, once again with the notable exception of American Airlines.
One interesting common feature is that all of the CEOs are relatively young with an average age of
8

only 48 years. These last two factors could suggest a dynamic leadership with intimate knowledge of
the challenges and opportunities facing their businesses. Although the balance of power seems to tilt
in favor of shareholders, it is interesting to note that 3 out of the 4 companies have board members
who are CEOs of other companies. This could indicate a lesser oversight due to the lack of time and
possible conflicts of interest, although it should be noted that only AA board members are CEOs of
related companies. Nonetheless, the large percentage of institutional shareholders in most firms, as
well as the relative absence of insiders in the boards of directors, leads us to believe that shareholders
hold an adequate level of power and oversight in their companies. An exception in terms of number
of insiders is BAA, where company executives represent a majority of the board. We believe that
management discretion is counterbalanced in this case by the oversight of the regulatory authority, the
Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).
Figure 2 Balance of power between stockholders and current managers

AA

BAA

Asur

Ryanair

er
Balance of pow

Incumbent
managers

Stock
holders

2. Management compensation
Management compensation does not appear to be an issue at any of the companies analyzed.
Only the CEO of Ryanair earns more than US$1 million in total compensation (half of which is in
stock options).

All firms, with the exception of Asur, use stock options as a mean to align

managements interest with those of shareholders, but with the exception of Ryanair, none of the
CEOs own a significant stake in their companies. Details about the CEOs, their compensations and
the composition of the Board are presented in Figure 3 and Figure 4.

Figure 3 Brief presentation of management

Chief Executive Officers
Name
Age

American
Airlines
Ryanair
Gerard Arpey Michael O'Leary
46
43

BAA
Mike Clasper
52

Years at the Company

Years as CEO
Education

23
3
MBA

17
9
n.a.

4
3
MA, Engeneering,
St John's College
Cambridge

CEO Compensation
Salary ('000)
Bonus ('000)
Other (000)
Stock Options (000.)
Total Compensation (000).)
Stock Ownership (% of Total)
Market Value of Stock Held (mm)

518.8
0.2
172.0
691.0
0.1%
1.14

505.0
127.0
49.0
502.0
1,183.0
5.44%
237

553.0
167.0
21.0
525.0
741.0
0.001%
0.1

Asur
Kjeld Binger
50
6 (Asur), 11
(CPH)
1
BSc in Structural
and Civil
Engineering
(Denmark)
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
1,317.0*
0%
0.0

* Compensation to all 5 executive officers including the CEO

Source: Annual reports, Statutory filings
Figure 4 Board of Directors
Board of Directors
Number of members
Insiders
CEO of other Companies?
Related Companies?

American
Airlines

Ryanair

BAA

Asur

13
1
7
2

9
1
no
no

9
5
yes
No

7
3
3
Yes

Source: Annual reports, Bloomberg, various public sources

10

3. Market coverage
Figure 5 Firms and markets sources of information

AA

Ryanair

BAA

Asur

Source of information

Markets

Firm

All firms, with the exception of American Airlines, have shares listed in more than one stock
exchange and thus garner significant investors interest outside of their home markets. In the case of
Asur, its shares are more heavily traded in the NYSE than in its home market of Mexico. The two
airlines in our sample are leaders in their sectors, while BAA is the largest airport group in the world
and Asur is the only public airport company in the Americas. As such and despite the travails of the
air transportation sector, all companies are relatively widely followed by the financial community and
command significant trading volumes. Nevertheless, with the exception of American Airlines, most of
the information on the companies is provided by the firms themselves, since some of the sub-sectors
in which they operate, discount airlines and airport operations, are relatively new and with few
comparable companies. With respect to the view of research analysts, this seems to be about evenly
split between buy and hold recommendations, despite their out-performance of the market, once again
with the notable exception of American Airlines.
Figure 6 Listings

Year of Listing
Main Listing
Other listings
Shares (million)
Free Float
Type of Stock

American
Airlines
1939
NYSE
no
161.2
157.98
Ordinary

Ryanair
1997
ISE
NASDAQ, LSE
754.3
660.32
Common

BAA
1987
London
ADRs
1,060.9
1,060.9
Common

Asur
2000
New York Stock Exchange
Mexican Stock Exchange
30.0
0.6941
Series B (85%) and Series BB (15%)

Source: Bloomberg

11

Figure 7 Market coverage

Analyst coverage
Number of Analysts
Analysts Recommendations (%)
Buy
Hold
Sell
Daily Average Trading Volume (mm)
2002
2003
2004
2005YTD

American Airlines
10

Ryanair
19

BAA
12

Asur
5+

50%
40%
10%

63.16%
26.32%
10.53%

50%
50%
0%

60.0%
40.0%
0.0%

2.14
8.06
5.13
4.06

1.54
2.64
2.26
3.41

4.98
7.01
6.43
6.93

1.01
0.83
1.37
3.27

Source: Annual reports, Statutory filings, Bloomberg, Zacks, Yahoo Finance and various public sources

4. Social responsibility
Due to the wide variability of business environments under which the four firms operate, we
have chosen to do a firm specific analysis of social issues.
Figure 8 Social consciousness and responsibility
Ryanair

Asur

BAA

AA

Social Consciousness

Very low

Very High

American Airlines
Given the poor operating performance of the past few years, driven by (i) a steep fall-off in the
demand for air travel, particularly business travel, (ii) reduced pricing power due to increasing
competition from low-cost carriers and (iii) the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11,
2001, American Airlines did not consider corporate responsibility a top priority and stopped
publishing the Annual report for the Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies in
2001.
AMR is therefore focusing on the mere respect of the many local and federal environmental
laws and regulations (air and water pollution, noise).

12

The company has been named as a potentially responsible party for land or water
contaminations in California, Oklahoma and Florida. AMR has already accrued $ 6 millionn for
settlement expected, but the actual amount that AMR will have to pay is still unknown.
Ryanair
The perceived image of Ryanair as a low cost air carrier and provider of value of its passengers
is extremely important for the company. This image is aligned with the operational model of the
company, using modern fleet of aircrafts with lower fuel consumption reducing the emissions and
environmental damage. In addition, its policy to operate from remote airports resulted in numerous
benefits for the communities in these regions, increasing economic activity. However, major focus of
the company is to be perceived as a value provider for its passengers.
BAA
Given its handling of all the major airports in the UK BAA as well undergoes substantial
public scrutiny. Recently the debate over the environmental impact of the new Terminal at Heathrow
and the new runaway at Stansted has further heightened attention. BAA has always been receptive to
issues coming from airport communities and currently pledges 0.15% of its pre-tax profits (equiv. to
slightly under 1 mm in 2004). to 21st Century Communities Trust, a charity it created.
Asur
As the monopoly provider of the main airport facilities in nine southeastern Mexican cities,
Asur faces significant public oversight and societal constraints. The Mexican Airport Law of 1995
established the general framework regulating the construction, operation, maintenance and
development of Mexican airport facilities in the benefit of the public good. Moreover, Asur is also
subject to Mexican federal and state laws and regulations relating to the protection of the
environment. The level of environmental regulation in Mexico has increased in recent years, and the
enforcement of the law is becoming more stringent.
Asur generally has a positive image with the Mexican public and a strong reputation as a good
corporate citizen, since it has greatly improved the quality and scope of the facilities and services
offered by its nine airports. However, in the near future the company could face criticism by local

13

government officials that want to build new airport facilities in their regions, such as in Veracruz and
Quintana Roo (Cancun and Cozumel airports).
IV.

Stockholder Analysis

All firms in our sample, with the exception of BAA which has a more widespread investor
base made up of small private investors, have a strong institutional shareholder base which commands
over 2/3 of the total outstanding shares of their companies. This contrasts sharply with an industry
average of only 33%, and gives credibility to our argument that corporate governance is relatively
strong and minority shareholder rights are well protected.

Moreover, the top 5 institutional

shareholders in all companies are among the largest and most diversified asset management companies
in the world. On the other hand and with the exception of Asur, insider holdings are relatively small
and in line with the industry average of 6%. All these facts suggest that the marginal investor for all
firms is a well diversified global institutional investor and we can thus proceed to carry out CAPM
based risk and return analyses for the companies. In the case of BAA, even though the majority of the
shares are held by private individuals, these tend to be buy-and-hold investors with the majority of the
trading is done by institutional funds, which are therefore the marginal investor.
Most firms in our sample have only one type of share, common or ordinary. We take a look at
the exceptions below:
American Airlines
AMR Corporation has only common stock outstanding, but the board of directors has already
authorized the CEO to issue 20million shares of preferred stock, probably to ease the deep financial
stress of the company. Book value of equity has been negative for the last 3 quarters and debt ratio is
around 90%.
Asur
Asur has two types of shares: B shares and BB shares. Series B shares currently represent 85%
of the companys capital, while series BB shares represent the remaining 15%. Each series B share
and series BB share entitles the holder to one vote at the general shareholders meeting. However,
holders of series BB shares are entitled to elect only two members of the board of directors, while
holders of series B shares are entitled to name the remaining directors. Under the companys bylaws,
each shareholder or group of shareholders owning at least 10% of Asurs capital stock in the form of

14

series B shares is entitled to elect one member to the board of directors for each 10% interest that it
owns. Directors and senior management do not own any shares of Asur. Pursuant to the companys
bylaws, the holders of series BB shares are entitled to appoint and remove Asurs CEO and one half
of the executive officers reporting directly to the CEO. Currently, four executive officers report
directly to the CEO, one of whom was appointed by ITA as holder of the BB shares.
The shareholders distribution as well as details about institutional and insiders holdings in the
companies are presented in Figure 9, Figure 10 and Figure 11.
Figure 9 Distribution of stockholders
100%
90%

Other 1%
Insider 2%

Insider 31%

Insider 12%

80%
70%
60%

Other 88%

50%
40%
30%

Institutional 87%

Institutional 69%

Institutional 98%
Insider 0.03%

20%
10%

Institutional 12%

0%
AA

Ryan

Figure 10 Institutional Holdings

Institutional
holdings
American Airlines
Number of shares held
(million)
% of Shares
Outstanding
Top 5 Holders

Number of shares held

by Top 5 (million)
% of Shares
Outstanding

BAA

Asur

Ryanair

BAA

Asur

158.0

n/a

124.2

20.8

98.0%

70% +

11.6%

69.41%

Fidelity Management

Fidelity Investment

Legal & General

Primecap Management

Capital Group Company

Scottish Widows

Wellington
Management
Allianz Global

Newton Inv.
Mgmt
Threadneedle Inv.

Hall Phoenix

Guilder Gagnon
Holding
Wellington
Management
Janus

69.5

392.2

93.1

First State Investment

Management UK
Columbia Wagner Asset
Management
Oakmark International
Small Cap Fund
Schroder Investment
Management Group
American Express
Financial Corp
6.5

43.1%

52.0%

8.7%

21.57%

Causeway Capital

Source: Bloomberg, Statutory filings

15

Figure 11 Insiders holdings

American
Airlines

Ryanair

BAA

Asur

3.22

88.3

0.3

9.2

2%
Daniel Garton
(CEO)
Jeffrey Campbell

12.47%
Michael O'Leary

30.59%
ITA (15.01%)

Charles Marlett
(Executive VP)
Gary Kennedy

Ryan Family
members

0.03%
Sir Mike Hodgkinson
(Exec. Director)
Joel Hoerner
(Non-exec. Dir)
Tony Ward
(Exec. Director)

Insiders ownership
Number of shares held
(million)
% of Shares Outstanding
Major Holders

Anthony Ryan

JanisKong (Exec. Dir.)

Nafin (11.10%)
Copenhagen Airports
(2.50%)
Fernando Chico Pardo
(1.98%)

Source: Bloomberg, Statutory filings, various public sources

V.

Risk Profile

1. Market risk and return

In analyzing the risk characteristics of the four companies we first looked at their returns over
a five year period compared them to the returns of a broad based market index such as the S&P 500.
Figure 12 below presents the rebased share prices of all four companies and the level of the S&P 500
(Jan 2000 = 100).

16

Figure 12 Stock price performance

300%

Asur

250%

200%

Ry an air

150%
BAA

100%

S&P 5 0 0

50%
Amrican Airlin es

Jan-05

Oct-04

Jul-04

Apr-04

Jan-04

Oct-03

Jul-03

Apr-03

Jan-03

Oct-02

Jul-02

Apr-02

Jan-02

Oct-01

Jul-01

Apr-01

Jan-01

Oct-00

Jul-00

Apr-00

Jan-00

0%

In general, three out of the four firms (Ryanair, BAA and Asur) did better than the market.
These results were expected for Ryanair and Asur since the two companies are at the growth stage of
their evolutionary cycle. BAA on the other hand, is more mature less volatile company characterized
by steady income stream and cash flows. AA suffered serious problems after swift change in its
operating environment dramatic drop in air transport passengers, higher security related costs and
economic slowdown impacted negatively the company, especially after September 11 terrorist attacks
in the US.
To analyze the market risk of the four firms we regressed their returns against broad based
market index and used the coefficient of the regression as a measure of market risk. We used 5 year
monthly returns for the regression, with the exception of Asur, which was listed in late 2000. The
choice of index reflected the marginal investor in each company, assuming that each investor is
exposed to the same market risks in their respective market. Although based in Europe, Ryanair and
BAA attracted a number of large institutional investors with operations around the world and with the
ability to diversify their holdings more broadly. Therefore, the reference index used in the regression
for these companies was the Morgan Stanley Global Index. The reference index used for Asur was the
S&P 500, since it is traded mostly in the US and its marginal investor is based in the US. Our analysis

17

focuses on the regression coefficient (beta), the regression constant (used for computation of Jensens
alpha) and the regression R-squared. The results from the regressions are summarized in Figure 13.
Figure 13 Risk return characteristics
Risk profile
American Airlines
Regression Beta
4.67
Reference index
S&P 500
Industry average beta
1.34
Average Risk free rate
Jensen's Alpha
-5.92%
R2 of Regression
Standard Error of Beta
Jansen's Alpha industry average

Ryanair
1.21
MS Global Index
1.80
4.59%
27.35%

BAA
0.35
MS Global Index
0.95
4.58%
4.43%

Asur
0.99
S&P 500
0.95
4.24%
28.42%

35.0%
0.56

27.0%
0.48

7.0%
0.17

15.0%
0.32

-4.27%

-4.27%

n/a

n/a

Source: Bloomberg, analysis, www.damodaran.com

Slope of the regression - Beta

The coefficients of the individual regressions are the companies betas and are used as a
measure of the company exposure to market risk. The analysis indicates that American Airlines is the
company with highest exposure to market risk (regression beta of 4.67), which is also more than 3
times the industry average. This is a reflection of high indebtedness and negative and volatile earnings.
Ryanair and BAA on the other hand have regression betas much lower than the industry averages,
while Asur is close to its peers. The reasons behind the different risk profiles of each firm will be
examined in greater details further in the report.
We also examined the excess returns of each firm as measured by its Treynor ratio. The
Treynor ratio measures the excess return of a stock given its level of risk (non-diversifiable) and is
computed with the formula below:

Treynor =

Rstock " Rf
!

Figure 14 below presents the Treynor ratios and the spread between stock Treynor ratio and
the market Treynor ratio over different investment horizons. The results suggest that over the last 5
years Ryanair had highest excess return compared to the market taking into consideration its risk.
None of the stocks outperformed the market over a 10 year period. Over the last couple of years the
best performing stock was Asur. These two stock were excluded from the 10 year horizon analysis, as
data for them was not available.

18

Figure 14 Treynor ratios

70.00%

70.0%

60.00%

60.0%

50.00%

80.0%

40.00%

40.0%

30.00%

30.0%

20.00%

20.0%

10.00%

10.0%

0.00%

0.0%
-10.0%

Treynor ratio

Excess return

50.0%

1 year

2 year

5 year

10 year

-10.00%

-20.0%

-20.00%

Investment horizon
Treynor ratio AA

Treynor ratio Ryanair

Treynor ratio BAA

Treynor ratio Asur

Excess return AA

Excess return Ryanair

Excess return BAA

Excess return Asur

The calculations of the Treynor ratios are presented in Appendix II.

Intercept of the regression and Jensens alpha
We further used the intercept of the regression to compare the actual stock performance of
each company to the market expectation. For each stock we computed Jensens alpha equal to
Intercept Risk Free rate x (1 Beta), using the average monthly risk free over the period. The
results were annualized using the formula:
(1+Monthly excess return) 12 1
The annualized returns indicated that on average all companies except for American generated
returns that exceeded the markets expectations. In addition, comparing Ryanairs high excess return to
the negative industry Jensens alpha suggests that the company performed better than expected at a
time when the sector as whole did not meet the markets expectations.

19

R-squared
R-squared of the regression provides information as to what proportion of the variability in
returns could be explained by the regression, or in other words what part of the variability in the
returns (total risk) can be attributed to beta (market risk). The market non-diversifiable risk represents
35%, 27%, 7% and 15% for AA, Ryanair, BAA and Asur respectively. The remainder is company
specific, non-diversifiable risk. While the relatively low R-squared for Ryanair and Asur could be
explained by the fact that they were small, fast growing companies during the observed period and
were facing numerous company specific challenges in establishing their business models, we were
surprised to estimate that BAA was characterized by a large proportion of (93%) of company specific,
diversifiable risk. One possible explanation could be the fact that airport operators revenues are
generally much more stable stream and have a fixed nature they are based on long term contracts
under which airport slots are sold to airline companies. Even in the event of drop in passenger
numbers the charge payable to airports is generally steady.
Standard errors
The standard errors of the regression betas appear to be significant, suggesting a wide interval
for the possible values of the beta. This is one of the reasons why we considered an alternative
approach to measuring the companies exposure to market risk, which is described bellow.
2. Bottom up betas
As an alternative approach to regressions betas we considered using bottom-up betas for our
analysis. This is mainly due to the following factors:
As growing companies Ryanair and Asur are likely to change over time, hence alter
their risk profile. In addition, their capital structure is likely to change;
BAA is mature, steady company which risk profile is likely to remain similar.
However, the standard error of the regression beta indicates that it might nor be a
reliable measure of risk;
American Airline as a company facing financial difficulties is likely to change in the
long term if it is to return to profitability. Making a going concern assumption
about the business requires change in the company and hence, its risk profile.
Therefore we believed that historical indicators might not be a reliable measure for
the future.
20

Estimates of unlevered beta

We used market information about firms in the sector to estimate the risk profile of each of
the companies. While the main stream of cash flows for BAA and Asur come from their core business
(Airport Development and Maintenance), a significant part is generated from general retail services,
electronics and luxury goods retail and restaurants. Each of the businesses is exposed to a different
extend to market risks. In order to capture these differences in the risk profile of each business we
estimated the value of each business and used these values as a weight to come up with an overall beta
of the firms. The value of each business unit was estimated by applying a market Enterprise Value /
Sales ratio to the respective revenue streams from each business. The average unlevered beta for each
respective sector was then used to compute the firm beta. Calculation of the unlevered beta of BAA
and Asur is presented in Figure 15 and Figure 16.
Figure 15 Unlevered Bottom up Beta for BAA
Estimated
Business line
Value
Airport
4,125
Retail

4,770

Firm total

8,895

Figure 16 Unlevered Bottom up Beta for Asur

Estimated
Business Line
Value
Aeronautical services
684.2
Non-aeronautical services
228.5
Commercial activities
76.3
Luxury
Restaurants
Access fees
Firm total

38.2
38.2
152.2
912.7

Comparable Firms
Airport
Development/Maintenance
Retail (Consumer Electronics /
Luxury / Restaurants)

Unlevered
Beta
0.73

Division
Weight
46%

Weight *
Beta
0.34

1.05

54%

0.56
0.90

Comparable Firms
Airports

Retail Perfume &

Cosmetics
Retail - Restaurants
Real Estate
Mgmt/Services

Unlevered
Beta
0.88

Division
Weight
75.0%

Weight *
Beta
0.66

1.08
0.82

4.2%
4.2%

0.05
0.03

0.47

16.7%

0.08

100.0%

0.82

Since Ryanair and American Airlines operate in a single business we used the respective
unlevered sector average betas (for European and US firms) to compute bottom-up betas.

21

Bottom-up betas
After estimating unlevered beta for each firm we levered back the beta to estimate a firm beta
that reflects the additional risk associated with financial leverage. The sector betas were unlevered and
re-levered using the formulae bellow:

" unlevered =

" market
(1 + (1 ! T )( D / E )

" levered = " unlevered x(1 + (1 ! T ) x( D / E ))

Where:
T

applicable tax rate;

D/E

market value of debt / market value of equity

The market value of equity has been computed as current share price multiplied by the number of
shares outstanding. Details of the computation of the market value of debt are presented in Figure 21.
Figure 17 Beta estimation - summary
American
Airlines

Ryanair

BAA

Asur

Top down Beta

4.67

1.21

0.35

0.99

Bottom up Beta (levered)

6.26

1.24

1.42

0.82

Industry avg. Beta (levered)

1.34

1.80

0.95

0.88

Beta measure

3. Cost of equity
The computed bottom up beta has been use to compute the cost of equity for the firms. This is the
return expected return by equity investors in the observed companies and an important input for the
calculation of the overall cost of capital. The cost of equity has been calculate using the Capital Asset
Pricing Model and includes the following inputs:
Risk free rate of return (Rf) in estimating the cost of equity we have used long term government
bond denominated in the respective currency to come up with the risk free. The current 10 year
US, German and UK bond yields were used in the analysis for AA, Ryanair and BAA respectively.
The 10 year maturity of the bond used reflects the long term investment horizon of the likely
projects. Other periods should be considered for shorter term projects. The analysis for Asur is
done in US dollars and the relevant risk free rate used in the analysis is the 10 years US treasure
bond.
Market risk premium (Rp) this measure reflects the excess return to which an investor is entitled
as a compensation for the higher risk he/she undertakes by investing in risky security rather than a

22

riskless one. We have used the geometric average of excess returns from the US market over long
term Treasury bonds for the period between 1929 and 2004. We assumed that the US market,
being the largest and most mature capital market in the world is a good proxy for the market risk
premium required by the investors. In the case of Asur, we added an additional country risk
premium of 1.8%, to account for the increased risk to equity investors of investing in a Mexicanbased company. The country risk premium is based on the Mexican sovereign debt rating of Baa
(spread of 1.2%) and relative volatility of equity compared to bonds (assumed to be 1.5 times).
The country risk premium applied to Asur was 1.8%
Beta as computed above.
The cost of equity, for all companies except Asur, is defined as:
Ke = Rf + x Rp
The cost of equity for Asur, is defined as:
Ke = Rf + x (Rp+Country Risk)
We did not add any country risk premium for AMR, Ryanair or BAA, since the US, Republic of
Ireland and the UK are all AAA rated countries.
The cost of equity computation is summarized in Figure 18.
Figure 18 Calculation of cost of equity
Cost of Equity
American Airlines
Risk Free Rate
4.27%
Beta
6.26
Risk Premium
4.82%
Country Risk
Cost of Equity

34.54%

Ryanair
3.47%
1.24
4.82%
-

BAA
4.5%
1.42
4.82%
-

Asur
4.24%
0.82
4.82%
1.80%

9.45%

11.30%

9.65%

4. Cost of debt
The other important component of the cost of capital is the cost of debt. It reflects the
perceived risk of the companies by lenders and debt investors, or its credit risk. The two components
of credit risk are default risk (or the probability that a company will cease making payments as agreed
in the credit agreement) and non-recovery risk (or the probability of recovery of the capital provided,
once the company goes in default). More detailed analysis of the borrowing policies of all firms is
presented in Section VII Capital Structure.

23

The cost of debt for each company has two components a risk free rate of return and
compensation for the credit risk associated with the company. In estimating the credit risk for each
company we took 2 approaches:
For American Airlines and BAA we looked at the current credit rating of the company.
The companies had recently issued traded bonds which represent a good indicator of the risk of
their debt and hence we used the implied default read on long term publicly traded debt.
Since Ryanair has not issued any publicly traded debt, we computed synthetic credit
rating for the firm based on its interest rate cover ratio.
Asur currently has no debt.
After obtaining the respective credit ratings we looked at the credit default spreads
corresponding to each rating, which is a measure of the risk premium required. For AA and BAA we
used the credit default spread embedded in current yields of publicly traded debt. We computed the
cost of debt for each by adding the default spread to the risk free rate for the respective company. The
results are presented in Figure 19.
Figure 19 Calculation of cost of debt
Cost of debt
Credit Rating
Spread vs. Treasury (a)
Risk Free Rate (b)
Pre-tax Cost of Debt (c) = (a) + (b)
Marginal Tax Rate
After Tax Cost of Debt (c) * (1-tax rate)

American Airlines
CCC
9.66%
4.27%
13.93%
35.00%

Ryanair
A1.00%
3.47%
4.47%
12.50%

BAA
A+
0.70%
4.47%
5.17%
30.00%

Asur
n.a.
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
33.00%

13.93%

3.91%

3.62%

0.00%

After computing the cost of debt for each firm we computed the after tax cost of debt. The
after tax cost of debt reflects the fact that interest payable on debt is deductible from the operating
income for tax purposes and results in tax savings for the firms.
In the case of American Airlines, the company cannot benefit from lower tax bill by financing
its operations with debt. The company has net operating loss before interest and hence pays no taxes.
In addition American Airlines has a huge accumulated tax loss, which could be carried forward and
used to offset future taxable income. Therefore the company does not enjoy tax benefits from the use
of debt and we excluded this component from the cost of capital calculation.

24

5. Cost of capital
Market value of equity
The market value of equity for each firm has been estimated by multiplying the number of
shares outstanding for each company by the current share price. The market values of equity are
presented in Figure 20.
Figure 20 Market values of equity
Market Value of Equity (million)

American Airlines

Market Value of Equity (million)

1,862.2

Ryanair
4,352.4

BAA
6,153.3

Asur
912.7

Source: Bloomberg

Market value of debt

In estimating the market value of debt we again took two approaches:
Use the current value for debt that is publicly traded and information is obtainable;
Project interest and principal payments and discount them back at the current cost of
debt as estimated above.
In projecting the interest payments we have used the current interest payments to book value
of debt ratio as a proxy for the average interest rate payable on the debt; and the average maturity of
the outstanding debt.
In addition, AA, Ryanair and BAA have significant operating lease commitments, which are
not recorded in their books. Such commitments require that the firms make regular payments to the
lessors in exchange for the use of assets (aircrafts, real estate). Such transactions are treated as rent for
accounting purposes and lease payments are recorded as operating expense. The essence of the
transaction, however, is financing the use of the assets and lease payments could be viewed as interest
and principal repayment of a loan provided for the acquisition of the assets. Moreover, the companies
are committed to making these payments for a long period of time.
We treated lease commitment as another form of debt and discounted the future lease
payments at the current cost of debt to estimate their current market value. The present value of all
future lease payments have been included in the market value of the companies debt and the
operating income has been adjusted by adding back the operating lease payment and subtracting the
estimated depreciation charge associated with recording the leased assets in the companies books.
Summary of the market value of debt calculation is presented in Figure 21.

25

Figure 21 Estimation of market value of debt

Market value of debt (million)
American Airlines
Book Value of Debt
14,254.0
Current cost of debt
13.93%
Average maturity
7.3
Interest Expense
894.0
Market Value of Debt (a)
6,261.3
PV of Operating Leases (b)
5,822.57
Total Market Value of Debt (a) + (b)

12,083.9

Ryanair
1,178.7
4.47%
6.4
53.3
1,179.6
181.64

BAA
4,578.7
5.17%
11.1
143.0
4,618.2
388.82

Asur
0.00%
-

1,361.3

5,007.1

Debt and Equity ratios

The market values of debt and equity have been used as weights in calculating the weighted
average cost of capital.
Figure 22 Capital weights

Market Value of Equity (a)

Market Value of Debt (b)
Firm Value (a) + (b)
D/(D+E)
E/(D+E)

American
Airlines
1,862.2
12,083.8
13,946.0
86.65%
13.4%

Ryanair
4,352.4
1,361.3
5,713.7
23.82%
76.2%

Industry
Avg.*

33% - 49%
67% - 51%

BAA
6,153.3
5,007.1
11,160.4
44.86%
55.1%

Asur
912.7
912.7
0%
100%

Industry
Avg.**

9% - 35%
91% - 65%

Source: Bloomberg, own analysis, www.damodaran.com

*Airline Transportation industry, **Airport maintenance and operation industry

Comparing the debt ratios for the analyzed companies to the industry average we observe that
AAs financial leverage is significantly higher than that of the average for the sector (between 39% for
European companies and 49% for US airlines.). On the other hand, Asur is rather unusual in its
industry since it does not have any debt.
These inputs are used in computing the cost of capital for each firm. The weighted average
cost of capital is computed as follows:
WACC = Ke x E/(D+E) +Kd x D/(E+D)
The inputs and results are summarized in
Figure 23.

26

Figure 23 Calculation of cost of capital

Cost of capital
American Airlines
Beta
6.26
Cost of Equity
34.54%
E/(D+E)
13.35%
After-tax Cost of Debt
13.93%
D/(D+E)
86.65%
WACC

16.69%

Ryanair
1.24
9.45%
76.18%
3.91%
23.82%

BAA
1.42
11.30%
55.14%
3.62%
44.86%

Asur
0.82
9.65%
100.00%
0.00%
0.00%

8.13%

7.85%

9.65%

Not surprisingly the company with highest cost of capital is American Airlines, reflecting its
high risk. The high cost of capital is driven by two factors high beta (volatile earnings and high debt
to equity ratio) and high cost of debt (low credit rating because of high debt and huge interest
payments). The lowest cost of capital, that of BAA, reflects the fact that the company is relatively
mature and stable, with predictable earnings and cash flows and is less subjective to market
fluctuations.
The estimated cost of capital of and cost equity are the hurdle rates that should be used in
capital allocation decisions in each company. These are the minimum acceptable rates against
performance of each new project considered should be measured return on equity against the cost
of equity and return on capital against cost of capital. In addition, the cost of equity and cost of capital
rates are the rates at which projects cash flows should be discounted to estimate their net present
value.
VI.

Investment Return Analysis

The ability of each firm to grow and create value for its stockholders ultimately depends on its
management capability to identify and undertake projects that generate returns exceeding the cost of
capital employed. In this section we will analyze the quality of the projects that the four companies
undertake ad review the past performance of the companies as measured by indicators such as Return
on Capital (ROC) and Return on Equity (ROE).
1. Typical project
The companies, subject to our analysis are involved primarily in 3 types of businesses air
transportation, aeronautical services and retail services. Aeronautical services include operation and
maintenance of airport and all related facilities that are used by passengers and airlines. Some of the
characteristics of a typical project for each business are presented in Figure 24.

27

Figure 24 Typical projects

Business
Typical Project / Flow Characteristics
Airlines

Aeronautical Services

Retail

Fleet Acquisition: Long term payment, Long life of the asset

New Route Opening: local offices and labor force. Long term and
different currencies
Set up of new bases long term, may have option value to expand in
new routes at a later stage.
New Terminal buildings and maintenance. Long term, single currency
Cash flows are volatile and sensitive to macroeconomic risk factors.
Medium to long term
Cash outflows that are primarily in local currency,
but there could be a significant dollar component
Cash inflows that are almost exclusively in local currency
Part of cash flows related to passengers can be volatile and sensitive to
global risk factors.
Another significant part of cash flows is less volatile as it consists of
fixed payments made by airlines for use of facilities and servicing.
Medium term
Cash outflows that are almost exclusively in local currency
Cash inflows that are primarily in local currency,
but there could be a significant dollar component
Can be very volatile, specially sensitive to global risk factors

In general, the time horizon of the core businesses of companies is long term with the
exception of the retail business which has shorter duration of its projects. Airline and retail businesses
cash flows are sensitive to macro risk factors and certain cyclicality (following the economic cycles)
might exist. Aeronautical services business, however, is less exposed to such cyclicality as the bulk of
its revenues are generated from long term contracts with airlines for the use of their facilities. Even in
the case of an airline to meet its payments, big international hubs such as Heathrow and Gatwick
operated by BAA have a solid backlog of airlines, which are ready to purchase potentially available
landing slots.
2. Measuring Returns
ROE and ROC
For each of the company we computed the Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Capital (ROC) as
follows:

ROE =

NetIncome
( BVEt + BVEt !1 ) / 2

ROC =

Op.Income(1 ! T )
( BVEt + BVDt + BVEt !1 + BVDt !1 ) / 2

where:

28

BVE

- book value of equity

BVD

- book value of debt

- tax rate

- time period

The historical returns are presented in

Figure 25 and Figure 26.
Figure 25 ROE, ROC and industry averages

16.00%

16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00%
-4.00%

14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
American Airlines
ROE

ROC

Ryanair

BAA

ROE (indusry average)

Asur
ROC (industry average)

Source: Analysis and industry average from www.damodaran.com

Figure 26 Investment returns

ROE
ROC

American
Airlines
n.m.3
8.54%

Ryanair
14.69%
16.94%

BAA
8.50%
5.59%

Asur
5.15%
4.76%

Economic Value Added

We further compared the obtained returns to the cost of equity and cost of capital. The results are
presented in Figure 27 and Figure 28.

The ROE calculation is not meaningful as it has negative net earnings and negative book value of equity

29

Figure 27 Equity Economic Value Added

ROE (a) 4
Cost of Equity (b)
Equity Return Spread (a)-(b)
Average book value of equity

American
Airlines
nm
34.54%
nm
(268.0)

Ryanair
14.69%
9.45%
5.24%
1,574.7

BAA
8.50%
11.30%
-2.80%
4,797.0

Asur
5.15%
9.65%
-3.23%
1,057.7

n.a

82.5

(134.5)

(47.6)

Equity EVA

From the companies included in the analysis only Ryanair created excess returns on equity
(Return in Equity Cost of Equity). It created a positive equity economic value added (EVA) of
82.5 million based on the last 12 months results. At the same time the airline industry destroyed on
average value of $ 4,95765.7 in 20045. Both BAA and Asur had return on equity lower than their cost
of equity. Comparing these results with the positive Jensens alpha values calculated in Section IV, we
can conclude that although both firms performed better that the market expected, they still have not
generated equity returns in excess of their equity costs.
Multiplying the spread between the return on capital and cost of capital for each company by
the average book value of total capital (equity + debt) we estimated the economic value added for each
firm.
Figure 28 Economic Value Added

ROC
Cost of Capital (b)
Capital Return Spread (a)-(b)
Average book value of capital
EVA (million)

American
Airlines
8.54%
16.69%
-8.15%
13,862.5

Ryanair
10.14%
8.13%
2.01%
2,652.8

BAA
5.59%
7.85%
-2.27%
8,427.0

Asur
4.76%
9.65%
-4.89%
1,057.7

(1,129.5)

53.3

(191.0)

(51.7)

Again the only company that created value during the observed period was Ryanair. The
average EVA for the sector in 2004 was $9,551.76
3. Future outlook
The ability of any of the companies to generate positive excess returns depends on its competitive
advantages and their sustainability in the medium and long term. In this section we look at some key

The ROE calculation is not meaningful as it has negative net earnings and negative book value of equity
Equity EVA for US market used as a comparison. Source: www.damodaran.com
6
EVA for US air transportation sector used as comparable. Source: www.damodaran.com
5

30

indicators for the air transportation sector, which could help us to understand how the companies are
positioned for the future.
Figure 29 Comparison of key figures airline transportation
US Industry
EU Industry
Traditional and low cost air carriers at a glance
AMR
RyanAir
Average
Average
Revenue Yield per Passenger Mile (RAPM) ($ cents)
11.5
n.a.
12.3
15.8
Load Factor
72.8%
84.0%
73.4%
64.8%
Number of Planes
1,013
79
213
80.9
Revenue per Employee ('000 $ or EURO)
202.4
489.3
174.6
n.a.
Average Age of planes
12.5
n.a.
11.2
n.a.
Source: AMR annual Report, Ryan Air Annual Report, ATA (Air Transport Association), AEA (association of European
Airlines) and Elfaa (association of low fares airlines) Economic reports

The analysis suggests that while Ryanair is relatively small airline in terms of number of
aircrafts it has more efficient operations which is evident from higher load factor (seats capacity
utilization) and higher revenues per employee ($635K7 compared to $202K for American Airlines).
Further analysis supports the fact that Ryanair relies on operational efficiencies to maintain its cost
advantages:
Figure 30
KPI

Key Performance Indicators

Passenger per employee

Average fare (Euros)
Lost bags per 1000 passengers
Employees per aircraft
Schedule on time

Ryanair

Low cost carriers

Industry Average

10,050
40.0
0.5
35
93.0%

6,000
86.3
n.a.
n.a.
85.0%

1,069
206.6
11.3
n.a.
81.2%

Source:Ryanair, Association of European Low Cost Airlines (www.elfaa.com)

On average Ryanair benefits from much higher passenger to employee ratio and much lower
employees to aircraft ratio, which helps the company to maintain cost efficiency. Indicators such as
lost bags per 1,000 and schedule on time suggest operational efficiencies and customer satisfaction.
One of the reasons for this is the structure of the aircraft fleet that Ryanair uses as compared to its
peers Ryanair currently employes predominantly two types of aircrafts Boeing 737-200 and Boeing
737-800 and a program whereby all aircrafts will be replaced with 737-800 machines is in place.
American Airlines, on the other hand, has a large fleet comprising of 11 different types of aircrafts,
which have different technical and maintenance requirements, adding to the costs of the company.
Composition of the fleet is presented in Figure 31.

At approximate exchange rate of $1.3 per Euro 1

31

Figure 31 Composition of the aircraft fleet American Airlines

Number of
Age and Costs
planes
Long Haul
727
Short Haul
286
Total
1,013

Number of different
models
7
4
11

Average Age
(years)
12.5
4.8
10.3

Source AMR and ATA Economic Report

Conclusions
In conclusion, we believe that in the medium term Ryanair can sustain competitive advantages
which will allow the company to earn return on capital in excess of its cost of capital. The company
has an investment program aimed at increasing its capacity from the current 15 million passenger per
year to 50 million by 2010. This would enhance Ryanairs growth, however at the expense of huge
capital spending.
American Airlines, on the other hand is facing fierce competition in a market where it clearly
lacks significant competitive advantages. Excess domestic capacity, fragmented market and increasing
competition from low cost carriers such as JetBlue and SouthWest Airlines are all factors that have
negative impact on the company. We believe that the renewal of the fleet is crucial for AMR: the
current aged and too diverse fleet generates, by itself, an inefficient cost structure (more maintenance
costs, different training for pilots and mechanics, different scheduling of engines check up). Moreover
the average age of AMR fleet is over 10 years and this represent a huge cost in term fuel (old airplanes
are less efficient) landing fees at the airports (old airplanes are heavier) and customer satisfaction (old
airplane are less comfortable and therefore less attractive). Finally the company is targeting expansion
in international markets, where it believes it can enjoy higher growth an margins, but new long haul
planes are needed to successfully compete in that arena. AMR average age of long haul planes is close
to 13 years. Overall we believe that AMR as a traditional flag carrier should focus on the international
long haul segment (not threatened by low cost carriers, as passenger need to be comfortable in a long
trip) by renewing its fleet on offering a vast network of routes thanks to international alliances.
Returns on capital and operating margin long term are going to be positive again, but below the peaks
of the mid nineties.
In the case of BAA what project it takes and the associated returns depend on negotiations
with the CAA, the regulatory authority. Negotiations take place every place 5-years with the next one
scheduled to be in March 2008. Tariffs are currently set below their market prices and the
consequence of this is that BAA shareholders are subsidizing the airlines landing at its airports. We

32

think that this situation is very unlikely to change in the short term, at least until the new review in
March 2008.
Similarly for Asur, the company faces mandatory capital investments which are negotiated with
the Mexican Ministry of Communications and Transportation every five years. In the coming years,
Asurs main investment project will be the construction of a second runway at the Cancun airport, to
handle the higher than expected growth in passenger volumes. This project has already been moved
forward five years from its original start date, signaling the companys strong confidence in its growth
prospects for the coming years.
VII.

Capital Structure Choices

1. Current financing mix

Figure 32 below summarizes the current debt structure of American Airlines, BAA and Ryanir (Asur
has no debt). As can be observed, the three companies employ very different kinds of debt:
American Airlines
AA has outstanding a wide variety of notes, from bank debt, plain vanilla bonds to more structured
debt instruments. On one hand this is driven by the necessity to tailor the debt to match the
companys cash flow profile and risk, which is very specific. On the other hand this is a symptom of
the financial difficulties the company has been going through and the need to raise capital in any form
it was available. With this respect, it is worth noticing that the BoD has even authorized (but not yet
issued) the emission of 20million preferred shares.
Ryanair
Ryanair has only bank debt outstanding and this is a reflection of both the early stage of the life cycle
is in and its ability to generate cash flows, thus funding growth largely with internal funds. We expect
the financing mix to change as the company continues to expand and it will need to access the public
bond markets to fund its future projects.

33

BAA
BAAs debt is almost all made up by straight bonds (82% of the total), with the rest coming from bank
debt and two outstanding convertible bonds issues. This is due to the high stability and predictability
of its cash flows, which has given BAA easy access to the public the bond markets. The company has
issued substantial debt over the last years (Gross Debt went from approx. 1.0 bn in 1995 to over 4
bn today with D/E climbing from 20% to 81%) as a result of the expected capex expenditures
connected with the fifth terminal at Heathrow and other projects.
Asur
Asur has no debt outstanding as it has been able to fund all its capex requirements through internal
cash-flows.
Figure 32 Current debt characteristics
Company

Americal Airlines

BAA

Ryanair

Type of Financing
Secured Variable and Fixed rate
indebtness
Enhanced Equipment trust
certificates
Special facility revenue bond
Credit Facility Agreement
Senior Convertibles Notes
Debentures
Notes
Other
Straight Bond
Straight Bond
Straight Bond
Straight Bond
Straight Bond
Straight Bond
Straight Bond
Convertible Bond
Convertible Bond
Secured bank debt
Secured bank debt
Secured bank debt
Secured bank debt
Secured bank debt

Amount (mm)

Interest Rate on
Books

Maturity

6,340.0

2.03% - 9.16%

2021

3,707.0
946.0
850.0
619.0
330.0
303.0
1,159.0
200.0
400.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
900.0
750.0
424.0
425.0
80.3
84.2
88.1
92.1
608.2

2.14% - 9.09%
6.00% - 8.50%
9.150%
4.25% - 4.50%
9.00% - 10.20%
7.88% - 10.55%

2011
2036
2010
2023-2024
2021
2039

7.875%
5.750%
11.750%
8.500%
6.375%
5.750%
4.500%
2.940%
2.625%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

2007
2013
2016
2021
2028
2031
2014
2008
2009
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 - 2016

In addition to the balance sheet debt 3 of the 4 companies analyzed have relevant off-balance
sheet items related to operating leases that we summarize below.

34

Figure 33 Debt embedded in operating lease commitments

Off Balance Sheet Debt
PV of Operating Leases
As a % of total market value of
debt

American Airlines
5,822.57

Ryanair
181.64

BAA
388.82

48%

13%

8%

Asur
-

2. Trade off on Debt and Equity

Each company advantages and disadvantages of debt are analyzed in the table on the next page.

35

Figure 34 Assessment of Debt / Equity Trade off

Factor
Added discipline

American Airlines

Ryanair

BAA

Asur

AMR debt is so overwhelming that an increase in debt

would not be a benefit for the company. The
management is struggling to bring the p&l back to
black in order to be able to meet the payments for the
debt

Ryanair's stockholder base is quite

concentrated and major shareholders are
represented in the management. The added
discipline from increased debt would not be
major benefit for the company

Tax benefits

Since the company has been losing money in the past 5

years, there are no tax advantages related to the use of
debt. Moreover due to high tax losses carried forward it
is quite likely that the company is not going to pay
taxes in the next few years. This is also reflected in our
Cost of capital calculations

The marginal tax rate of the company is

12.5% while the effective tax rate is only
9.6% (9.5% average over the last 3 years)

BAA would not benefit from an increase in

debt as it is already very close to its optimal
debt ratio and an increase would therefore
push up its cost of capital. Furthermore there is
very little to gain from a discipline perspective
given the highly regulated environment in
which it operates, which already restricts
management discretion
BAA effective tax rate is 30% with nearly no
variation over the years and it is equal to the
marginal tax rate

The additional debt is likely to

provide little in added
management discipline, since
Asur is a highly regulated
company with strong
shareholder representation in
management and a primarily
institutional shareholder base
Asur could derive a significant
tax benefit if it carried some debt
in its balance sheet, since it faces
a 33% marginal tax rate

Bankruptcy risk

With a negative book value in the past 3 quarters, a

negative operating income in the past 4 years and a
88% debt ratio the company is clearly risking
bankruptcy. The company has no sustainable
advantage in the competitive arena and in the 2004
annual report the management stated that "the reduced
pricing power, resulting mainly from greater cost
sensitivity on the part of travelers (especially business
travelers), increasing competition from low-cost
carriers and the continuing increase in pricing
transparency resulting from the use of the Internet, will
persist indefinitely and possibly permanently".

The earnings of the company have been

growing steadily, although in the long term
this might be more difficult to sustain. In
general, the company is less volatile to the
economic cycle relative to its peers because
of more efficient cost structure. In addition,
it provides low price services which might
be preferred in times of recession, i.e. some
counter-cyclicality may exist.

Bankruptcy risk is very remote thanks not only

to the very stable nature of its cash flows, but
most importantly to the regulatory
environment and the resulting indirect
oversight on its activities exercised by the
British government through the Civil Aviation
Authority

Given that Asur's cashflows are

highly sensitive to external
shocks, it would face
considerable bankruptcy costs if
it were to carry significant
amounts of debt

Agency costs

Typical projects for the company are expansion of

aircraft fleet and set of of new hubs. Funds are easy to
track and agency costs are not expected to be high

Typical projects for the company are

expansion of aircraft fleet and set of of new
hubs. Funds are easy to track and agency
costs are not expected to be high

Asur's well-regarded
management team is largely
drawn from the ITA consortium
which is the largest shareholder
in the company

Future flexibility

The company has at the moment no financial

flexibility: covenants on debt are stringent and the
price war on the market can be met only renewing the
fleet. The company also intend to expand in the
international markets in search for higher growht and
markets, but do not have the financial resources to fully
support such initiatives.

As the company is in its growth phase, the

need for financial flexibility is high.
Ryanair has a big number of projects launching new routes and setting up new
bases every year and the ability to take such
projects in the future depends on its
financial flexibility.

Agency costs are minimized by the restrictions

imposed on the projects BAA can take and the
return on capital is allowed to earn, which is
negotiated with the CAA every 5 years. Given
these factors, BAA's stock has very similar
characteristics to a bond, minimizing therefore
conflicts of interest between stockholders and
lenders
The company has in theory excess debt
capacity, although using debt to fund new
projects (assuming similar returns to the
current ones) would be value destroying, given
the current negative ROC-WACC spread.
Notwithstanding this, BAA plans to use debt
to fund the very large capital commitments it
will face over the next 5 Year, which are
almost totally due to the construction of a fifth
terminal at Heathrow (2004-2009 total
expected capex is over 6.0 bn. with average
capex/sales climbing from 27% in 1993-2003
to 49% in 2004-2009)

Page 36

Given Asur's considerable

visibility on its investments
requirements, additional debt is
unlikely to take away much
future financing flexibility

Based on the above analysis, we draw the following conclusions:

BAA and Asur have the ability to carry higher debt ratios given the relative stability of their cash
flow profile compared to Ryanair and American Airlines. Whereas BAA debt ratio is a at the
correct level, Asur has substantial untapped debt capacity which it should use
Given its profitability (and the resulting capacity to reap the tax advantages of debt) and relative
lower sensitivity to economic cycles compared to other airlines, Ryanair should be able to have a
higher debt ratio.
American Airlines debt ratio is clearly too high, even though it must be noted that AAs distress
is more the result of its negative operating profitability than excessive debt in the first place.
VIII.

Optimal Capital Structure

1. Current Cost of Capital / Financing Mix

In the table below we computed the current cost of capital for each of our companies, with the
cost of equity based on a levered bottom-up beta and using market values to compute the debt/equity
weights. As expected given their operating and financial profiles, American Airlines has the highest cost
of capital and BAA the lowest. Asurs cost of capital is equal to its cost of equity given that it is only
equity financed.
Figure 35 Current cost of capital and inputs for calculation of optimal cost of capital
Cost of capital - summary
American Airlines
Ryanair
BAA
Cost of Equity
34.54%
9.45%
11.30%
After-tax Cost of Debt
14%
4%
4%
D/(D+E)
87%
24%
45%
E/(D+E)
13%
76%
55%
Rating
CCC
AA+
Stock Price
10.2
5.77
5.8
Cost of Capital
16.69%
8.13%
7.85%
Firm Value (million)
13,946.0
5,713.7
11,160.4

Asur
9.65%
0%
0%
100%
Not Rated
30.45
9.65%
912.7

2. Cost of Capital at Different Financing Mixes

As the next step in our analysis to estimate the optimal capital structure we used the cost of
capital approach to compute a different WACC at each debt ratio for our companies. The table below
summarizes our results
Cost of capital

37

Debt Ratio
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%

American Airlines
10.07%
9.76%
9.63%
10.96%
11.78%
13.86%
20.06%
22.06%
24.06%
26.06%

Ryanair
8.16%
8.09%
8.13%
8.71%
11.30%
13.33%
14.53%
21.40%
23.40%
25.40%

BAA
8.82%
8.58%
8.39%
8.24%
8.18%
8.90%
11.03%
14.79%
15.99%
17.19%

Asur
9.65%
9.48%
9.39%
9.56%
9.93%
12.01%
12.48%
13.89%
14.50%
15.11%

Based on the objective of minimizing the cost of capital, the table above yields the following results:
American Airlines: assuming a normalized EBIT of $ 2600million (which results in a ROC of
8.54%, American Airlines should reduce its debt/capital ratio from the current 87% to 20%.
Ryanair: contrary to the result of our qualitative analysis, this analysis shows that Ryanair is
currently over levered and should decrease its debt/capital ratio from its current 24% to 10%.
BAA: BAA is currently at its optimal capital ratio (the actual optimum is at the current debt ratio
of around 45%). The higher optimum can be explained by the low variability and uncertainty of
its operating profitability due to the regulatory environment in which BAA operates. This
enables the management to design the companys debt profile with a low level of error.
Asur: The company is clearly under levered and should move to a 20% debt/capital ratio in
order to maximize firm value.
3. Firm Value at Optimal
The following tables present the computed expected Firm Value and Stock Price (both assuming
positive growth and no growth) if our companies were to move to their optimal capital ratios.

38

Figure 36 Effect of moving to the optimal capital structure

Optimal Ratios
American
Airlines
11.01%
4.07%
20.00%
80.00%

Ryanair
8.62%
3.34%
10.00%
90.00%

BAA
11.30%
3.62%
44.86%
55.14%

BB+
10.20
9.63%

AAA
5.77
8.09%

A+
5.8
7.85%

24,173.0

5,742.7

11,160.4

Asur
10.56%
4.72%
20.00%
80.00%
A- (probably capped at
BBB)
30.45
9.39%
938.1

33,107.3

5,763.7

951.2

Stock Price at optimum (1)

$74.99

$5.80

31.30

Stock Price at optimum(2)

$130.41

$5.83

Cost of Equity
After-tax Cost of Debt
D/(D+E)
E/(D+E)
Rating
Current stock price
Cost of Capital
Firm Value (1) (million)
Firm Value

(2)

(million)

31.74

(1) assuming no growth, (2) assuming 3% growth

* BAA is currently at its optimum debt ratio

Figure 37 Firm value at the optimum capital structure

Firm value at optimal capital
American
structure
Airlines
Debt Ratio
Current
86.65%
Optimal
20.00%
Rating
Current
CCC

Cost of Capital
Firm Value (1)
Change in firm value
(1) assuming no growth

Ryanair
23.87%
10.00%
A-

BAA
44.86%
A+

Optimal
Current
Optimal

BB+
16.69%
9.63%

AAA
8.13%
8.09%

7.85%
7.85%

Current
Optimal

13,946.0
24,173.0

5,716.8
5,742.7

11,160.4
11,160.4

10,227.0

25.9

0.0

Asur
0%
20%
Not Rated
A- (probably
capped at
BBB)
10.13%
9.59%
912.7
963.5
50.8

As the table shows American Airlines is the company that would benefit the most from the transition,
whereas the effect on Ryanair and Asurs value would be more limited. More in detail:
American Airlines: a strong deleveraging (from 86.65% to 20% debt/capital) will be difficult to
execute in the short term, barring a Chapter 11 situation which in any event would significantly
impact the equity value as well. The crucial aspect is that we believe that AMR cannot but
maintain current Capex. We therefore believe that even though necessary, moving to the
Optimal capital structure is going to be a very long process. More specifically, the company
needs to reinvest in the fleet (particularly the long haul fleet: the only one that cannot be

39

threatened by low cost carriers, and the one that is operating where the company believes the
higher growth and margins are) in order to be able to compete in the market and get back to
profitability.
Ryanair: the company should focus on reducing its debt/capital ratio by raising more equity
capital to fund its future projects, instead of using debt as it has done in the last years.
Asur: raising its debt ratio by issuing debt would benefit the company not only from an increase in
firm value, but also from opening a new capital source, therefore facilitating access to it in the
future. We estimate, that although Asurs interest coverage ratio at its optimum 20% debt ratio
would warrant an A- rating, this would probably be capped at BBB, which is the sovereign debt
ratio for Mexico.
4. Optimal capital structure APV approcah
We also applied the APV approach with American airlines in order to verify the optimal capital
structure we have identified earlier. Given its state of financial distress we believed that this additional
approach can give us more insight about their real debt capacity.
Our basic assumptions in this process are:
Cost of Bankruptcy: direct and indirect costs of bankruptcy are estimated very high given the high
capital intensive business model and the complex regulations of the industry. Our guess estimate is
45% of firm value.
Tax rate is assumed at 35% stable
Unlevered firm value is calculated as Current Firm Value tax benefits on debt + Expected
Bankruptcy cost.
Figure 38 APV optimal capital structure - assumptions
Basic
American Airlines
Assumptions
Current Debt ratio
86.8%
Unlevered Firm Value =
$12,615.13
Current Firm Market Value
$13,923.99
Tax rate
35%
Debt Market value
$12,083.85
Tax Benefits on Debt
$4,229.35
Expected Bankruptcy costs
45%
Bankruptcy probability
47%
Cost of Bankruptcy
$2,920.49

40

We have undergone an iterative process that yielded us the capital structure that maximize the firm
value.
Figure 39 AA optimum debt level APC approach
Unlevered
Debt
Tax
$ Debt
Firm
ratio
Rate
Value
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
87%
90%

$0.00
$1,307.21
$2,707.69
$4,198.77
$5,515.42
$6,687.62
$7,457.22
$9,010.81
$10,679.48
$11,072.48
$11,614.96

35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%

$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13
$12,615.13

Tax
benefit

Rating

Prob of
Default

Expected
Bankruptcy
Costs

Value of
Firm

$0.00
$457.52
$947.69
$1,469.57
$1,930.40
$2,340.67
$2,610.03
$3,153.78
$3,737.82
$3,875.37
$4,065.24

AAA
AAA
A+
ABB
B
CCC
CCC
CCC
0
CC

0.01%
0.01%
0.40%
1.41%
12.20%
26.26%
50.00%
50.00%
50.00%
65.00%
65.00%

$0.57
$0.59
$24.37
$88.80
$756.99
$1,580.55
$2,796.46
$2,896.33
$3,003.60
$3,731.89
$3,774.86

$12,614.57
$13,072.07
$13,538.46
$13,995.90
$13,788.54
$13,375.25
$12,428.70
$12,872.59
$13,349.35
$12,758.61
$12,905.51

Source Aswath Damodaran, AMR Annual Report, our estimates

The analysis yields us an optimal debt ratio of 30%, not far from the results obtained with the
optimal capital structure model.
However, given the high subjectivity of the bankruptcy cost, we have run a sensitivity analysis
that, taking into account also the tax rate, provide a measure of the debt ratio that maximize the firm
value.
Figure 40 Sensitivity analysis tax rate (horizontal axis) and bankruptcy costs (vertical axis)
$0.30
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
20%
80%
80%
90%
90%
90%
90%
90%
25%
30%
80%
80%
80%
90%
90%
90%
30%
30%
30%
80%
80%
80%
90%
90%
35%
30%
30%
30%
80%
80%
80%
80%
40%
30%
30%
30%
30%
80%
80%
80%
45%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
80%
80%
50%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
80%
55%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
60%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
65%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
70%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%

55%
90%
90%
90%
90%
80%
80%
80%
80%
30%
30%
30%

60%
90%
90%
90%
90%
90%
80%
80%
80%
80%
30%
30%

41

5. Sector and market debt ratios

Sector debt ratios
In addition, we looked at the sector and the debt ratios at which other firms in the air
transportation industry operate. We looked at a sample of 44 companies at analyzed their debt to capital
ratios. In order to account for the difference in size, risk and tax rate we regressed the market debt ratio
against ln(Revenues), beta and effective tax rate for each company. The resultant regression is as follows:
Market Debt to Capital = 0.387 - 0.260 Eff Tax Rate - 0.0195 LnRev+ 0.137 3-yr
Regression Beta
The R-squared of the regression is 41.1%. The T-statistics reveal insignificance at 95% confidence
interval. The results from the regression indicate the following debt ratios:
Figure 41 Debt ratios based on sector information.
Variable Coefficient
AA Ryanair
Constant
0.387
Tax rate
-0.26
0%
9.90%
LnRev
-0.0195
9.83
6.98
Beta
0.137
6.26
1.24
Predicted Debt ratio

105%

40%

BAA

Asur

29%
7.59
1.42

33.5%
7.59
0.82

36%

26%

We are quite reluctant to base our recommendations on this ratios for two reasons:
Although the relatively high R-squared of the regression the coefficients are with large standard
errors and statistically insignificant (as indicated by the low T-values)
The sector as a whole is characterized by high degree of financial leverage, which might result in the
regression overestimating the appropriate level of debt.
Market debt ratios
We additionally looked at a regression based on the overall market. The regression applied is:
Market Debt to Capital = 4.881 + 0.81 Eff Tax Rate - 0.304 Insider holding +
0.841EBITDA/AV Capex/ Total assets
The results are summarized below:
Figure 42 Optimal capital structure market regression
Variable Coefficient
Constant
4.881
Insider holdings
-0.304
Effective tax rate
0.81
EBITDA/EV
0.841
Capex/Total assets
-2.987
Predicted Debt ratio

AA

Ryanair

BAA

Asur

2.00
7.92
2.85

12.47
9.9
9.03
10.44

0.03
29.0
9.46
12.56

30.59
33.5
13.75
3.25

2.44%

-14.47%

-1.20%

24.61%

42

The market debt ratio regression clearly provided some controversial results for AA, Ryanair and
BAA, suggesting a negative market debt ratio, which is contrary to our previous analysis based on cost
of capital or APV (for American Airlines)

IX.

Mechanics of moving towards the optimal

1. A Path to the Optimal

In the table below we have listed the main cash flow characteristics of the three businesses our
companies are in: Airlines (American Airlines and Ryanair), Aeronautical service and Retail (BAA and
Asur). We have then listed what would be the optimal features of the debt for each business.
Figure 43 Typical projects and cash flow characteristics
Business
Typical Project
Cash Flow Characteristics
Airlines
Fleet Acquisition: Long term payment, Long life of
the asset
New Route Opening: local offices and labor force.
Long term and different currencies

Type of Financing
Debt should be
Long term
Multiple currencies

New Terminal buildings and maintenance

Aeronautical
Services

Retail

Medium to long term

Cash outflows that are primarily in local currency,
(there could be a significant dollar component for
Asur)
Cash inflows that are almost exclusively in local
currency
BAA: very stable cash flows
Asur: volatile due to exposure to tourism travel
Medium term
Cash outflows that are almost exclusively in local
currency
Cash inflows that are primarily in local currency
although influenced by relative strength of
pound/peso
Can be very volatile, specially sensitive to global
risk factors

Medium/Long term
Single currency (dollar portion for
Asur)
Asur: if possible tied to influx of
tourism

Medium Term
Mix of currencies
Asur: if possible tied to influx of
tourism

2. Quantitative Analysis and Overall Recommendation on Financing Mix

To further evaluate the optimal debt characteristics for each company we regressed the firm
value and the EBITDA of each of our companies against: Change in Long Term Rate, GDP growth,
Change in local currency, Change in inflation and Change in the price of oil (only for American Airlines

43

and Ryanair). The Firm value regression results and the conclusion for each company are shown below.
Regressions on EBITDA against macroeconomic variables are presented in Appendix IV.
American Airlines
The current crisis of the company makes firm variations very unpredictable and driven much more by
company specific issues rather than macroeconomic variables. Not surprisingly results are disappointing
in terms of signs of the coefficients and T statistic significance.
Long Term Interest Rates: very weak R square and T statistic. The regression suggests
that the duration of the operating assets of the company is very low. .
GDP Growth: The companys earnings are cyclical and shows a positive coefficient with
EBITDA. R-squared is fairly significant: AMR is undoubtedly a cyclical company. The
negative coefficient with firm value is likely to be related to the high leverage: high GDP
growth rates are usually related to high interest rates that affects negatively the firm value.
Dollar: A weaker dollar helps EBITDA, but at the same time has a slightly negative effect
on firm value. Revenues in foreign currencies (about 35% of total sales) explain the relations
with EBITDA, although the effect is small (probably offset by foreign currency costs and
expenses). The company should use predominantly dollar denominated debt.
Inflation: Does not impact significantly EBITDA, while is negatively correlated to the firm
value, probably due to the high amount of debt, hence higher discount rate.
Price of Oil: Oil seems to be completely non influent on company firm value or EBITDA.
This can be due to two factors: 1) the company has pursued an efficient hedging strategy 2)
companys firm value is driven by company specific issues related to bankruptcy risk, rather
than industry themes.
Based on this analysis we would suggest the company to use mainly dollar denominated debt with fixed
rates.
The regression results for FV are presented below

44

Figure 44 Regression of Firm value against macroeconomic variables

American Airlines
Firm value (dependent variable)
Change in Long Term rate
GDP growth
Change in Dollar
Change in Inflation
Change in price of oil

Constant

Coefficient

T-statistic

R2

8.205
20.3
8.2
7.29
7.34

1.81
-4.08
0.61
-3.3
0.047

0.55
-2.08
1.2
-1.13
0.24

1.6%
19.3%
7.4%
6.6%
0.3%

Ryanair
Long Term Interest Rates: - the regression on change of firm value on change in long term
rates indicates that the average duration of the operating assets of the firm is approximately 5.3
year
GDP Growth:

- interestingly the firm value is positively related to the combined GDP

growth of EU 15 countries (where the companies generates its revenues), while the operating
income is negatively related. One possible interpretation of this is that higher GDP growth
boasts companys long term growth prospects. On the other hand, fundamentally the low cost
airline model attracts more passengers during economic slowdown when travelers are generally
more price sensitive, hence negative correlation with the operating earnings.
Euro: - Alhough the value of the firm does not appear to be influenced by the Euro exchange
rate, stronger currency has significant negative impact on operating income. Therefore we
would recommend use of mix of currencies in the capital structure
Inflation: - Ryanairs firm value seems to be significantly related to the inflation rate and our
recommendation would be to use floating rate financing.
Price of Oil: - in addition, we looked at the price of oil as a facto that might impact the firms
value and profitability. It appeared that changes in the oil prices have little impact on the firm,
which is the result of the airlines hedging strategy. In addition, during the analyzed period
Ryanair was less exposed to the increasing oil prices compared to some its American
counterparties as the price increases were partially offset by the loss of value of the US dollar,
which is the referent currency for the price of oil.
The results from the regressions are presented in the tables below.

45

Figure 45 Regression of Firm value against macroeconomic variables

Ryanair
Firm value (dependent variable)
Change in Long Term rate
GDP growth
Change in EURO
Change in Inflation
Change in price of oil

Constant

Coefficient

T-statistic of
coefficient

R2

30.2
6.03
32.4
18.8
38.5

-5.3
3.24
0.68
6.56
-0.532

-0.2
2.63
-0.27
1.56
-1.08

0.70%
36.60%
1.20%
16.80%
16.3%

BAA
Long Term Interest Rates: Both regressions have a negative coefficient which points to a
longer duration of debt, approx. 2 years. It should be noted that the T-statistic and the R2 of
both regressions are very weak.
GDP Growth: BAA is positively correlated to GDP growth but shows a low degree of
cyclicality as evidenced by the coefficients.
GBP: BAA is not influenced by changes in the British Pound.
Inflation: the FV regression shows a high positive sensitivity to changes in inflation, which
therefore suggests the use of floating rate debt
Based upon this analysis, we would recommend that BAA issues debt:
With a high duration. Given the weakness of the regression we would not use the coefficient
number as a proxy for the duration
In British pounds
Floating rate
BAA current debt satisfies all these characteristics, except for the fact that most of the current debt is
with fixed rate. The regressions results are presented in the tables below.
Figure 46 Regression of Firm value against macroeconomic variables
BAA
Firm value (dependent variable)
Change in Long Term rate
GDP growth
Change in GBP
Change in Inflation

Constant

Coefficient

T-statistic

R2

8.80
6.60
10.30
11.50

-3.30
1.72
-0.72
15.9

0.21
0.20
-0.04
0.74

0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
7.2%

46

Asur
Long Term Interest Rates: the regressions on interest rates, suggest that Asur market value
and EBITDA increase with higher Mexican interest rates, which is somewhat counterintuitive.
A possible explanation might be that, often a rise in domestic rates is a response to higher
inflation and/or a depreciation in the peso, both of which might entice more US tourists to
visit Asurs destinations. It is interesting to note the relatively high R2 of 54.4% in the
EBITDA regression.
GDP Growth: Once again we note the relatively high R2s, compared to the other three
companies in our sample. Clearly, Asurs prospects are highly correlated to economic activity
as would be expected from a tourism-based company. The cyclicality of Asurs business was
quite evident after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, when its foreign passengers arrivals contracted
dramatically. This leads to a recommendation for careful use of debt.
Exchange Rate: Asurs firm value and EBITDA seems to be affected little by changes in the
value of the peso with respect to the dollar, which is, once again, a surprising result.
Nevertheless, we would advise that if Asur issues debt in the future, it should do so for the
most part in the domestic market and in peso denominations.
Inflation: the link between firm value and domestic inflation suggests that Asur should issue
any future debt with a variable, rather than a fixed, rate.
Figure 47 Regression of Firm value against macroeconomic variables
ASUR
Firm value (dependent variable)
Interest Rate (Cetes)
Mexican GDP
Exchange Rate (Peso/Dollar)
Mexican Inflation

Constant

Coefficient

T-statistic

R2

27.7
2.5
28.4
163

2.99
10.4
-0.98
29.7

1.12
2.52
-0.63
-1.68

10.3%
36.6%
3.5%
20.3%

3. Summary of desirable debt charachteristics

The profile of the ideal debt that the companies should use is presented in Figure 48 below:

47

Figure 48 Summary of desired debt features

Company
Maturity
Currency

Interest rate

Comments

Other features

American Airlines

Medium to long term,

despite the regression

US dollars

Fixed rate

Analysis distorted by
the distressed state of
the firm

Ryanair

medium term (5
years)

Euro

Floating rate

Analysis is distorted
by the growth stage of
the firm

BAA

short term (2 years)

British
Pounds

Fixed rate

n.a.

None, provided
that the company
is hedged against
sharp movement in
price of oil
None, provided
that the company
is hedged against
sharp movement in
price of oil
n.a.

Asur

short to medium term

Peso

Floating rate

n.a.

n.a.

X.

Dividend Policy

1. Current Dividend Policy

Of the four companies that we are analyzing, only two of them pay dividends: BAA and Asur.
This is consistent with their different characteristics in terms of cash flow profile, expected growth and
profitability. The main factors behind American Airlines and Ryanair not issuing dividends are the
following:
American Airlines: The constraint is clearly the financial and operational distress the company
is going through
Ryanair: although the company is profitable it chooses not to pay dividend given the stage of
the life cycle and the consequent growth it has to fund. Investors have been rewarded by the
high stock price appreciation over the last years. In addition, the management of Ryanair stated
on a number of occasion that it does not intend to pay out dividends in the foreseeable future as
it intends to fund a large scale capacity expansion program. The management put up the issue
for a large purchase of 50 new Boeing 737-800 aircrafts for vote at the forthcoming general
annual meeting.
BAA
BAA has kept a stable dividend policy over the past 5 years, with an average dividend yield of
3.3%. The companys policy of keeping a stable dividend yield was evidenced in 2002 when it paid a
dividend although it recorded a much lower net income (this resulted in a dividend payout ratio of

48

114%). The only year in which BAA bought back stock has been in 2001 to return cash to its
shareholders after it had sold some non-core assets.
Figure 49 Dividend policy - BAA
Historical Dividends BAA
Dividend Paid (mm)
Stock Buyback
Total Cash to shareholders
Average Market Cap
Dividend Yield (%)
Dividend Payout (%)

2000
150
0
150
4,071
3.7%
58%

2001
178
141
319
6,604
2.7%
46%

2002
188
0
188
6,787
2.8%
114%

2003
196
0
196
5,027
3.9%
52%

2004
205
0
205
6,106
3.4%
54%

Source: BAA annual reports, Bloomberg

Asur
Asur has only recently started to pay dividends to its shareholders through a special cash
dividend in 2002, in which it paid over 200% of its net income. The company generates enough cash to
fully fund its increased capital expenditures and still have a significant dividend payout ratio. In the last
general shareholder meeting, the company decided to begin a regular cash dividend of approximately
US$0.50 per share and to set up a reserve account for stock buybacks. We welcome both moves, as the
companys ROC is far lower than its cost of capital and it is rapidly accumulating excess cash.
Figure 50 Dividend policy - Asur
Dividend policy ASUR
Dividend Paid ($ mm)
Stock Buyback
Total Cash to shareholders
Dividend Yield (%)
Dividend Payout (%)

2000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0%
0.0%

2001
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0%
0.0%

2002
43.42
0.00
43.42
12.0%
213.0%

2003
13.88
0.00
13.88
3.4%
56.5%

2004
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

Source: Asur Annual reports

49

Figure 51 Trade Offs on Dividend Policy

Factor
Stockholder Tax
Preferences

American Airlines

Ryanair

BAA

Most of the stockholder are American Institutional investors

and should be therefore indifferent between the choice of
dividends or buybacks. Given the financial situation of the
company no investor is buying AMR shares expecting other
than stock appreciation.

The Company has a consistent history of

paying dividends. This is reflected in its
stockholders base, which is made up mostly of
small private shareholders

Information
Effects and
signaling
Incentives

In the unlikely case of a change in dividend policy (the

company paid no dividend in the past 5 years) the market
would read that a strong signal of confidence.

Effects on
flexibility

The good side of the crisis the company is suffering it is it

could cancel dividends and now has free hands on this

The marginal stockholder in Ryanair is

large internationally diversified
institutional investor, who probably has
the flexibility to move any dividend and
capital gains to locations with highest tax
advantage. From this standpoint the
stockholders might indifferent between
capital or income gains.
Given the good returns on capital and the
largely announced capital investments
plans a dividend announcement might
signal that the company has run out of
good projects and have a negative impact
on the growth expectation hence on the
stock value
Dividend policy is constrained by the
huge capital expenditure requirements
related to the companies expansion
program.

Bond Covenants
and Rating
Agency
Constraints

Debt covenants are pretty high. The company must meet a

detailed schedule of financing for the $ 850mn credit facility
in terms of current assets (no less than 1.5bn every quarter)
and Cash flow to fixed charges around 1x.

Neither of these would be a constraint for

Ryan air.

policy.

Page 50

Asur
Investors in Asur expect
recurrent dividend
payments

Given the high number of analysts that follow

the stock and the amount of disclosure given
by the company, any signal imbedded in a
change in dividend policy would have most
probably already been captured by the market

Minimal, as Asur has no

history of sticky dividends
and is more inclined to
pay special dividends

BAAs dividend policy in the short medium

term is constrained by the heavy capex
spending related to the new terminal at
Heathrow.

Asur has no debt

Neither of these factors would be a restraint to

BAA raising dividends

Investors in Asur expect

recurrent dividend
payments

XI.

Dividend Policy: a Framework

1. Affordable Dividends
In order to determine the amount our companies could have paid out in dividends we have
computed the average FCFE over the last 5-year and compared it to the dividends and buyback paid by
the companies. As mentioned before American Airlines and Ryanair do not payout any dividends. Even
though both companies could have potentially returned cash to their shareholders, none of them did,
but for completely different reasons: American Airlines positive FCFE come exclusively from the
borrowings necessary to pay previous debt and try to renew the old fleet; Ryan Air decided to retain its
FCFE to fund future growth. BAA and Asur have as well paid out less than what they could have to
their shareholders.
Figure 52 Dividend policy sector analysis
Dividend policy analysis
Average FCFE in million (last 5 years)
Average Dividends & Stock Buybacks
Difference
% Dividends / Stock Buybacks

American
Airlines
765.3
0
765.3
0.0%

Ryanair
23.5
0
23.5
0.0%

BAA
248
183
-65
74%

Asur
41.2
14.3
26.9
34.7%

Figure 53 Dividend policy sector analysis

Dividend policy - Sector analysis
Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield (sector)
Difference
Payout Ratio
Payout Ratio (sector)
Difference

American
Airlines
0.0%
0.06%
-0.06%
0.0%
2.6%
-2.6%

Ryanair
0.0%
0.05%
-0.05%
0.0%
79.4%
-79.4%

BAA
3.4%

Asur
3.9%

3.36%
54.4%

3.90%
67.4%

54.4%

67.4%

2. Management Trust and Changing Dividend Policy

As a second step in our analysis we analyzed past ROE and ROC to judge if firms that paid out
less than they could afford created value for their shareholders. In the case of Ryanair the company has
been justified in its policy of not paying out dividends by the largely positive spread, both in terms of
ROE-Cost of Equity and ROC-WACC. On the other hand BAA and Asur both have recorded negative
ROE-Cost of Equity / ROC-WACC spreads. This suggests that they should increase their dividend
payout ratios.
Figure 54 Analysis of past returns and dividend policy

51

Analysis of dividend policy

ROE
Cost of Equity
Difference
ROC
WACC
Difference

American
Airlines
n.m.
34.54%
Na
8.54%
16.69%
-8.15%

Figure 55 Analysis of past returns AA

Historical returns AA
ROE
Cost of Equity
Difference
ROC
WACC
Difference

Figure 56 Analysis of past returns Ryanair

Historical returns Ryanair
ROE
Cost of Equity
Difference
ROC
WACC
Difference
Figure 57 Analysis of past returns BAA
Historical returns BAA
ROE
Cost of Equity
Difference
ROC
WACC
Difference

Figure 58 Analysis of past returns Asur

Historical Returns Asur
ROE
Cost of Equity
Difference
ROC
WACC
Difference

Ryanair
14.69%
9.45%
5.24%
16.94%
8.13%
8.81%

Industry
Average
2.76%
10.69%
-7.93%
14.22%
8.65%
5.57%

2001
-32.79%
15.69%
-48.49%
-12.29%
14.32%
-26.62%

2002
-366.88%
42.69%
-409.56%
-16.82%
16.04%
-32.86%

2001
18.80%
8.25%
10.56%
12.02%
7.85%
4.17%

2002
17.99%
9.46%
8.53%
10.74%
8.95%
1.80%

BAA
8.23%
11.30%
-3.07%
5.59%
7.85%
-2.27%

2003
-2669.57%
26.01%
-2695.58%
-4.23%
15.70%
-19.94%

Asur
5.15%
9.65%
-4.50%
4.76%
9.65%
-4.89%

2004
Nm
29.88%
Nm
-0.72%
15.96%
-16.68%

2003
21.34%
9.53%
11.81%
12.59%
8.57%
4.02%

LTM
14.69%
9.45%
5.24%
16.94%
8.13%
8.81%

2001
8.59%
10.35%
-1.76%
6.07%
8.92%

2002
3.41%
9.48%
-6.07%
5.72%
7.77%

2003
7.89%
10.51%
-2.63%
5.56%
7.85%

2004
8.23%
11.30%
-3.07%
5.59%
7.85%

-2.85%

-2.05%

-2.30%

-2.27%

2003
2.45%
10.46%
-8.01%
2.94%
10.46%
-7.52%

2004
5.15%
9.65%
-4.50%
4.76%
9.65%
-4.89%

2001
2.31%
9.89%
-7.58%
2.25%
9.89%
-7.65%

2002
1.81%
9.94%
-8.14%
1.89%
9.94%
-8.05%

Industry
average
10.20%
n.a.
n.a.
5.71%
n.a.
n.a.

52

Figure 59 Analysis of historical returns

\
30.00%

20.00%

25.00%
10.00%

20.00%
15.00%

0.00%

10.00%
5.00%

-10.00%

0.00%
-5.00%

2001

2002

2003

2004

-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%

-20.00%
-30.00%

- 32.8%
- 366.9%

-40.00%

-25.00%

- 2669.6%

-30.00%

-50.00%
American airlines ROE

Ryanair ROE

BAA ROE

Asur ROE

AA Spread

Ryanair Spread

BAA Spread

Asur Spread

Recommendations
American Airlines AA has the priority to return back to profitability before being able to
give any cash back to its stockholders. It seems that to a significant extend the problems of
AA stem from its high leverage and any dividend payment would reduce the value of the
equity, resulting in even worse debt ratio
Ryanair the company has not paid any dividends, but it appears that it has a good
portfolio of investment projects that can and do generate positive value for its stockholders.
In addition, good corporate governance practices ensure that investors money is in good
hands with Ryanairs management and we support the current non-divident policy of the
company
BAA with its low risk profile and in its steady and reliable cash flows, BAA has definitely
attracted dividend addict shareholders, evident by the distribution of ownership. It is the
company with a large number of smaller investors who probably rely more on income than
on capital gain from this company. Appropriately it payout out large portion of its available
free cash flow to equity (74%) back to its shareholders. Taken into account the regulated
nature of the business and the fact that BAA cannot upgrade the prices it currently charges
from Airline until 2008, we suggest it accumulate a certain cash cushion to meet unexpected
turns in the economic trends. Current retention ration of about 25% seems appropriate.

53

 Asur Asur has been retaining a significant portion of their available free cash flow to
equity and on the other hand has not been able to deliver excess returns over it s cost of
capital. We believe that it should return more cash to its stockholders in the form of
dividends. In addition, it is not constrained by high debt ratio as its debt capacity is still
unused.
XII.

Valuation

1. Valuation models
Based on the analysis presented above we proceeded to perform valuation of the market value
of the equity of all four companies. Table Figure 60 below summarizes the choice of our valuation
model and the results.
Figure 60 Summary of valuation results
American
Valuation summary
Airlines
Model Chosen
FCFF 2 Stage
Value per Share
10.06
Current Stock Price
10.20
Undervalued / (overvalued)
-1.3%
Reccomendation
HOLD

Ryanair
FCFF 3 Stage
6.76
5.55
21.8%
BUY

BAA
FCFF 2 Stage
3.22
5.80
-44.4%
SELL

Asur
FCFF 2 Stage
31.69
30.45
4.1%
HOLD

Source: Analysis

The choice of growth period reflects the sustainability of competitive advantages of each firm as
outlined in Part 3 Section IV Investment Returns and Future prospects.
2. Valuation assumptions and inputs.
The valuation assumptions are presented in Figure 61 to Figure 64 below.

54

Figure 61 American Airlines DCF valuation assumptions

American Airlines
Length of Period
Revenues
Pre-tax Operating Margin
Tax Rate
Return on Capital
Non-Cash Working Capital
Reinvestment Rate (Net Cap Ex + Working
Capital Investments/EBIT
Expected growth Rate in EBIT
Debt Capital Ratio
Beta
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt

High Growth Phase

10.0
18,883.0
13.8%
35% (theoretical)
8.5%
-8.4%

Stable Growth
Forver

16.5%
1.4%
86.6%
6.26
34.5%
13.9%

19.0%
2.0%
25.0%
1.22
10.2%
25.0%

35.0%
10.5%
-8.4%

Source: Company reports, analysis

Figure 62 Ryanair DCF valuation assumptions
Ryanair
High Growth Phase
Length of Period
4 years and 4 years transitional period
Operating income growth
22.53%
Tax Rate
Return on Capital
Cost of capital
Non-Cash Working Capital
Reinvestment Rate (Net Cap Ex + Working
Capital Investments/EBIT
Debt Capital Ratio
Beta
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt

Stable Growth
Forever
3%

12.50%
15.48%
8.13%
starting at 8.45% and declining to 2%

20.00%
7.78%
7.78%
2.00%

146%
23.87%
1.24
9.5%
4.5%

39%
10.00%
1.00
8.3%
4.0%

Source: Company reports, analysis

Figure 63 BAA DCF valuation assumptions
BAA
Length of Period
Revenues
Tax Rate
Return on Capital
Reinvestment Rate (Net Cap Ex + Working
Capital Investments/EBIT
Expected growth Rate in EBIT
Debt Capital Ratio
Beta
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt

High Growth Phase

Stable Growth
Forever

4 Years
Starting at 1,970 and growing with 4.8%
CAGR
30%
5.23%

Growing at 2.00%
30%
6.93%

Starting at 161.65% and declining to 28.85%

starting at 8.45% and declining to 2%
45%
1.42
11.30%
5.17%

28.85%
2.00%
45%
0.90
8.81%
5.17%

Source: Company reports, analysis

55

Figure 64 Asur DCF valuation assumptions

Asur
Length of Period
Revenues
Pre-tax Operating Margin
Tax Rate
Return on Capital
Non-Cash Working Capital
Reinvestment Rate (Net Cap Ex + Working
Capital Investments/EBIT
Expected growth Rate in EBIT
Debt Capital Ratio
Beta
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt

High Growth Phase

5.0
177.2

Stable Growth
Forever

33.0%
7.5%
5.93

33.0%
11.0%
5.93

85.0%
7.0%
0.0%
0.82
10.0%
0.0%

30.0%
3.0%
20.0%
0.80
8.1%
7.0%

Source: Company reports, analysis

In building our assumptions into the valuation model we had the following approach:
We have used the bottom-up beta estimates we calculated earlier in the cost of equity computation.
The risk characteristics in perpetuity are likely to change as follows:
o American Airline changing debt ratio (going concern assumption) should reduce risk
and hence beta. The beta used in perpetuity is the unlevered average industry beta relevered to a more sustainable debt ratio
o Ryanair as the company grows and becomes more mature, the risk is expected to
converge with the market
o BAA and Asur risk is assumed to converge with market risk, although at the low end
reflecting stability in cash flows
Growth rate are derived from fundamentals and based on ROC and Reinvestment rates. In
perpetuity the growth rate is set at levels below or close to long term sustainable economic growth
as we dont expect these sectors to be the major drivers of economic growth.
Growth phase Capex and Working capital changes have been projected on the basis of historical
data. I perpetuity the implied reinvestment rates were used (derived as a function of growth and
ROC).
Leverage we projected that in the long term the companies gradually move to their optimal capital
structure, except for BAA,which is already at its optimum.
In addition, Asur is assumed to generate a ROC slightly higher than its cost of capital in the future. The
rationale behind this is that as the company becomes more mature and moves towards its optimum
capital structure the cost of capital is likely to fall. This fall is likely to be supplemented by reduced risk
56

premium for Mexico, as the country becomes less risky place for investors. We believe that Asur could
sustain the higher ROC partly because of its most valuable asset the concession to use the airports.
This asset gradually depreciates reducing the book value of the equity of the firm, and on the other hand
does not require capital expenditures to replace it. It is also a natural barrier to entry to competitors in
the sector and it give Asur the exclusive right of being airport operator. We assumed that in perpetuity
the ROC of Asur will move towards the industry average of around 11.0%
3. Valuation results
The valuation results are presented in
Figure 65 Valuation results
American
Airlines
13,776.0
148.0
13,924.0
12,083.8
1,840.1
217.9
1,622.3
161.2
10.06

Value of Operating Assets

Cash & Marketable Securities
Firm Value
Market Value of Debt
Equity Value
Value of Equity in Options
Value of Equity in Common Stock
Number of Shares
Value per Share

Ryanair
5,272.9
1,447.9
6,720.7
1,549.1
5,171.7
71.7
5,099.9
754.3
6.76

BAA
7,452.1
973.9
8,426.0
5,007.1
3,417.9.
2.45
3,415.4
1,060.9
3.22

Asur
848.0
102.8
950.8
950.8
950.8
30.0
31.69

Source: Analysis

We performed the DCF valuation on the basis of the inputs presented above. The equity values
of AA, Ryanair and BAA includes also the equity options outstanding written by the companies. In
computing the options values we have used the annualized standard deviation in the log-normal returns
&P
on a monthly basis for 5 years ( Ln$$ 1
% P0

#
!! ), the average strike price and maturity of the options.
"

On the basis of the valuations results we reached the following conclusions

Valuation summary
Value per Share
Current Stock Price
Undervalued / (overvalued)
Recommendation

American Airlines
10.06
10.20
-1.3%
HOLD

Ryanair
6.76
5.55
21.8%
BUY

BAA
3.22
5.80
-44.4%
SELL

Asur
31.69
30.45
4.1%
HOLD

Source: Analysis

57

58

Appendix I
AMR Income Statement
Passenger Revenues
of which American Airlines
of which Regional

2001
17,208
15,780
1,428

2002
15,871
14,440
1,431

2003
15,851
14,332
1,519

2004
16,897
15,021
1,876

1Q04
4,098
3,678
420

1Q05
4,292
3,841
451

2004TTM
17,091
15,184
1,907

Cargo
Other
Total Revenues

662
1,099
18,969

561
988
17,420

558
1,031
17,440

625
1,123
18,645

148
266
4,512

151
307
4,750

628
1,164
18,883

Labour Costs
Fuel
Commission and Bookings
Maintenance
Other rentals and airport fees
Food Service
Other Operating
Special Charges
US Government Grant

-8,032
-2,888
-1,540
-1,165
-1,197
-778
-2,996
-1,466
856

-8,392
-2,562
-1,163
-1,108
-1,198
-698
-2,715
-718
10

-7,264
-2,772
-1,063
-860
-1,173
-611
-2,428
-407
358

-6,719
-3,969
-1,107
-971
-1,187
-558
-2,366
-11
0

-1,640
-808
-288
-231
-305
-137
-582
0
0

-1,644
-1,097
-271
-235
-300
-125
-617
0
0

-6,723
-4,258
-1,090
-975
-1,182
-546
-2,401
-11
0

Ebitdar
Aircraft Rentals
Ebitda
Depreciation and Amortization
Ebit
Interest Income
Interest Charges
Capitalized Interest
Other
Financial Income / (Charges)
EBT
Tax Benefits
Income (Loss)
Accounting Change Impact
Net Loss

-237
-829
-1,066
-1,404
-2,470
110
-538
144
-2
-286
-2,756
994
-1,762
0
-1,762

-1,124
-840
-1,964
-1,366
-3,330
71
-685
86
-2
-530
-3,860
1337
-2,523
-988
-3,511

1,220
-687
533
-1,377
-844
55
-703
71
113
-464
-1,308
80
-1,228
0
-1,228

1,757
-609
1,148
-1,292
-144
66
-871
80
108
-617
-761
0
-761

521
-153
368
-326
42
14
-212
18
-28
-208
-166

461
-148
313
-290
23
36
-235
23
-9
-185
-162

1,697
-604
1,093
-1,256
-163
88
-894
85
127
-594
-757
0
-757

-761

-757

59

AA Balance Sheet
Current Assets
Currrent Liabilities
Inventory

2001
6,469
-6,740
0

2002
4,833
-6,372
0

2003
4,562
-5,755
0

2004
4,851
-6,212
0

1Q05
5,272
-6,852
0

Net Working Capital

-271

-1,539

-1,193

-1,361

-1,580

Tangible Assets
Intangible Assets
Financial Assets (cash)

19,655
6,615
102

19,694
5,636
104

19,460
5,188
120

19,137
4,665
120

19,116
4,631
148

Total Assets

26,372

25,434

24,768

23,922

23,895

Termination Indemnity
reserves

-10,122

-9,760

-9,599

-8,812

-8,758

Net Capital Employed

15,979

14,135

13,976

13,749

13,557

Total Debt
Total Equity

-10,606
5,373

-13,178
957

-13,930
46

-14,330
-581

-14,254
-697

Net Capital Employed

15,979

14,135

13,976

13,749

13,557

60

Ryanair - Income statement

Last Twelve
months

Dec-04

Dec-03

2004

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

2003
'000
EUR

2002
'000
EUR

2001

2000
'000
EUR

'000 EUR

Operating revenues

1,238,387

1,015,536

851,373

1,074,224

842,508

624,050

487,405

370,137

Operating expenses
Depreciation and amortization
Lease payments
Staff, fuel, route charges and others
Total operating expenses

(100,623)
(42,018)
(811,193)
(953,834)

(70,960)
(23,636)
(636,753)
(731,349)

(71,728)
(6,450)
(509,771)
(587,949)

(101,391)
(24,832)
(684,211)
(810,434)

(76,865)
(502,169)
(579,034)

(59,010)
(4,021)
398,086)
(461,117)

(59,175)
(7,286)
(306,933)
(373,394)

(44,052)
(2,097)
(239,933)
(286,082)

Operating profit before exceptional costs

284,553

284,187

263,424

263,790

263,474

162,933

114,011

84,055

Reorganization costs
Other exceptional costs
Amortization of goodwill
Total exceptional costs

(2,287)
(2,287)

(1,702)
(1,702)

(3,012)
(9,491)
(1,757)
(14,260)

(3,012)
(9,491)
(2,342)
(14,845)

EBIT

282,485

249,164

248,945
350

263,474
340

162,933
222

114,011
173

84,055
128

Financial charges
Interest expenses
Other financial income/(charge)
Total

282,266
383
(53,254)
25,981
(27,273)

(40,992)
17,368
(23,624)

(35,302)
18,486
(16,816)

(47,564)
27,099
(20,465)

(30,886)
31,962
1,076

(19,609)
29,050
9,441

(11,962)
21,339
9,377

(3,781)
9,820
6,039

Profit before tax

254,993

258,861

232,348

228,480

264,550

172,374

123,388

90,094

Taxes

(23,680)
231,313

(24,257)

(22,446)

(21,869)

(25,152)

(21,999)

(18,905)

(17,576)

209,902

206,611

239,398

150,375

104,483

72,518

Net income

34,604

61

Balance sheet

Fixed assets
Intangible
Tangible
Total fixed assets
Current asets
Cash and liquid resources
Receivables
Prepayments and other receivables
Inventories
Total current assets
Total assets
Current liabilities
Payables
Accrued expenses and others
Current portion of long term debt
Short term borrowings
Total current liabilities
Long term liabilities
Provisions
Other creditors
Long term debt
Total long term liabilities
Shareholders equity
Share capital
Share premium
Profit and loss
Total equity funds
Total liabilities and equity

Last Twelve
months

Dec-04

Dec-03

2004

2003

2002

2001

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

'000 EUR

2000
'000
EUR

30,872
1,845,452
1,876,324

30,872
1,845,452
1,876,324

45,085
1,611,127
1,656,212

44,499
1,576,526
1,621,025

1,352,361
1,352,361

951,806
951,806

36
613,591
613,627

36
315,032
315,068

1,447,850
14,467
18,608
27,160
1,508,085

1,447,850
14,467
18,608
27,160
1,508,085

1,124,671
11,478
22,977
24,183
1,183,309

1,257,350
14,932
19,251
26,440
1,317,973

1,060,218
14,970
16,370
22,788
1,114,346

899,275
10,331
11,035
17,125
937,766

626,720
8,695
12,235
15,975
663,625

355,248
21,974
6,478
13,933
397,633

3,384,409

3,384,409

2,839,521

2,938,998

2,466,707

1,889,572

1,277,252

712,701

89,439
317,049
106,841
2,325
515,654

89,439
317,049
106,841
2,325
515,654

82,491
223,679
79,545
4,454
390,169

67,936
338,208
80,337
345
486,826

61,604
251,328
63,291
1,316
377,539

46,779
217,108
38,800
5,505
308,192

29,998
139,406
27,994
5,078
202,476

22,861
107,445
9,567
3,780
143,653

107,741
22,958
1,046,546
1,177,245

107,741
22,958
1,046,546
1,177,245

97,915
268
893,285
991,468

94,192
30,047
872,645
996,884

67,833
5,673
773,934
847,440

49,317
18,086
511,703
579,106

30,122
374,756
404,878

15,279
112,412
127,691

9,652
562,015
1,119,843
1,691,510

9,652
562,015
1,119,843
1,691,510

9,637
559,717
888,530
1,457,884

9,643
560,406
885,239
1,455,288

9,588
553,512
678,628
1,241,728

9,587
553,457
439,230
1,002,274

9,194
371,849
288,855
669,898

8,892
248,093
184,372
441,357

3,384,409

3,384,409

2,839,521

2,938,998

2,466,707

1,889,572

1,277,252

712,701

62

BAA - Income Statement

Retail (incl. World Duty Free)
Airport/traffic charges
Property/op. facilities
Other
Total Airports
Rail
Other
Total Revenues

1,452
50
18
1,520

2004
802
734
282
59
1,877
67
26
1,970

(420)
(167)
(43)
(407)
(1,037)
11

(829)
5

(475)
(176)
(44)
(401)
(1,096)
9

(882)
15

(1,149)
19

813

856

696

883

788

975

(257)

(258)

(191)

(258)

(213)

(280)

556

598

505

625

575

695

Interest Income
Interest Charges
Net Interest
Other Financial Income
Financial Income / (Charges)

34
(134)
(100)
49
(51)

60
(176)
(116)
42
(74)

(66)
2
(64)

52
(143)
(91)
2
(89)

(63)
9
(54)

(88)
9
(79)

EBT
Taxes
Minority Interests
Income (Loss)

505
(152)
(2)
351

524
(161)
(2)
361

441
(137)
(1)
303

536
(162)
(1)
373

521
(153)
(1)
367

616
(178)
(1)
437

Labour Costs
Retail Expenditure
Operating Leases Expenses
Other Operating Costs
Total Costs
Share of operating profit in Joint Venture
Ebitda
Depreciation and Amortization
Ebit

2002
866
677
260
60
1,863
58
51
1,972

2003
755
690
266
49
1,760
64
58
1,882

(443)
(276)
(45)
(401)
(1,165)
6

9M 2003

9M 2004

2004LTM

1,589
51
15
1,655

2,014
68
23
2,105

63

BAA - Balance Shteet

2002

2003

2004

Dec-04

Trade Receivables
Trade Payables
Inventory
Net Working Capital
Other Current Assets / (Liabilities)
Total Net Current Assets

183
(125)
34
92
(576)
(484)

218
(143)
27
102
(669)
(567)

270
(152)
23
141
(792)
(651)

314
(150)
53
217
(810)
(593)

Tangible Assets
Intangible Assets
Share of Gross Assets
Share of Gross Liabilities
Loans
Investments in JVs
Investments in associates
Othe investments
Total Fixed Assets

6,975
10
51
(39)
39
51
6
80
7,122

7,802
10
75
(72)
30
33
7
142
7,994

9,074
10
60
(46)
17
31
49
122
9,286

9,997
10
62
(48)
18
32
42
80
10,161

Other Liabilities

(267)

(971)

(901)

(941)

Net Capital Employed

6,371

6,456

7,734

8,627

Gross Financial Debt

of which Convertible Debt
of which Bonds
of which Bank Loans
other financial debt
Cash & Marketable Securities
Net Debt
Minority Interest
Total Equity

2,567
311
1,842
350
34
(939)
1,628
6
4,737

3,029
730
1,873
378
48
(1,156)
1,873
8
4,575

3,598
838
2,266
447
47
(890)
2,708
8
5,018

4,169
838

Net Capital Employed

6,371

6,456

7,734

8,627

(849)
3,320
9
5,298

64

ASUR
Income Statement
Revenues:
Aeronautical revenues
Non-aeronautical revenues
Total revenues
Operating expenses:
Cost of services
Technical assistance fee
Concession fee
General and administrative
Depreciation and amortization
Total operating expenses
Operating income
Interest income
Interest expense
Exchange gain/(losses), net
Chages in monetary position
Comprehensive financing cost
EBT
Provision for asset tax
Income tax and profit sharing
Income before extraordinary items
Contract termination fee
Other special items
Net income
EBITDA

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

94.2
15.8
110.1

112.6
19.4
132.0

107.8
19.1
127.0

92.7
22.1
114.8

102.8
27.7
130.5

132.9
44.4
177.2

25.4
6.6
5.6
12.6
29.9
80.1
30.0
3.8
(1.8)
(0.1)
(0.1)
1.7
31.8
0.0
(13.4)
18.3
0.0
0.0
18.3

30.8
6.0
6.6
11.5
33.1
87.9
44.1
6.0
(1.8)
(0.4)
(5.5)
(1.6)
42.4
0.0
(18.6)
23.9
0.0
0.0
23.9

31.4
4.2
6.3
10.9
33.0
85.8
41.1
8.6
(0.1)
(0.6)
(4.1)
3.8
44.9
0.0
(16.7)
28.3
(0.7)
0.0
27.6

31.8
3.5
5.7
9.9
31.0
81.9
32.9
4.5
(0.1)
1.1
(2.9)
2.5
35.4
(2.9)
(11.3)
21.2
(0.4)
(0.3)
20.4

32.9
4.1
6.5
10.8
31.6
85.9
44.7
4.8
(0.1)
0.5
(3.1)
2.2
46.8
(4.0)
(16.6)
26.2
(1.5)
(0.1)
24.6

41.9
6.0
8.9
9.5
35.8
102.1
75.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(2.6)
72.6
0.0
(16.5)
56.0
0.0
(1.6)
54.4

59.9

77.1

74.2

63.9

76.2

111.0

65

ASUR
Balance Sheet
Cash and marketable securities
Trade receivables
Recovarable taxes and other current
assets
Total current assets
Property, plant and equipment
Airport concessions, net of amortization
Right to use airport facilities, net
Total assets
Trade accounts payable
Accrued expenses and other payables
Total current liabilities
Long term debt
Other
Deferred income tax and profit sharing
Total liabilities
Capital stock
Legal reserve
Retained earnings
Total stockholders' equity
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

63.7
10.9

95.8
14.1

46.0
15.4

63.2
15.2

102.8
19.0

2.1
76.7
30.7
827.9
233.6
1,169.0
1.3
7.3
8.6
0.0
0.0
24.2
32.8
1,082.2
1.4
52.5
1,136.2
1,169.0

6.7
116.6
65.4
806.1
225.1
1,213.3
0.1
8.7
8.8
0.0
0.0
40.7
49.5
1,082.2
7.3
74.2
1,163.7
1,213.3

5.5
66.9
79.4
703.4
194.4
1,044.0
0.2
11.1
11.4
0.0
0.1
36.0
47.4
970.6
3.6
22.5
996.7
1,044.0

12.5
90.9
103.8
683.8
187.8
1,066.3
0.9
13.0
13.9
0.0
0.1
42.6
56.5
970.6
4.6
34.6
1,009.8
1,066.3

2.8
124.6
149.4
704.2
192.7
1,170.9
1.0
14.9
15.9
0.0
1.3
48.1
65.3
1,029.0
20.5
56.0
1,105.5
1,170.9

66

Appendix II
Analysis if returns - Ryanair
Compounded Annual Return
Market Index Compounded Annual Return
Beta
Risk-free Rate
Stock Treynor Measure
Market Treynor Measure
(Under)/Outperformance

1-Year
Horizon
19.8%
4.61%
1.34
2.07%
13.2%
2.54%
10.68%

2-Year
Horizon
-3.1%
10.96%
1.16
2.52%
-4.9%
8.45%
-13.33%

5-Year
Horizon
20.22%
-5.70%
0.73
5.20%
20.6%
-10.90%
31.48%

10-Year
Horizon
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a.

2-Year
Horizon
12.6%
10.96%
0.32
4.52%
25.3%
6.45%
18.89%

5-Year
Horizon
9.4%
-5.70%
0.35
4.73%
13.2%
-10.44%
23.66%

10-Year
Horizon
3.3%
8.99%
0.23
5.71%
-10.4%
3.28%
-13.72%

2-Year
Horizon
59.0%
13.71%
3.54
4.25%
15.5%
9.46%
6.00%

5-Year
Horizon
-21.21%
-4.36%
4.67
5.11%
-5.6%
-9.47%
3.84%

10-Year
Horizon
-3.03%
8.49%
2.02
5.57%
-4.3%
2.92%
-7.18%

2-Year
Horizon
65.3%
12.4%
0.87
4.2%
70.6%
8.2%
62.4%

5-Year
Horizon
21.4%
-4.8%
0.81
4.3%
20.9%
-9.2%
30.0%

10-Year
Horizon
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Source: Bloomberg, Ryanair's's annual report, Eurostat

Analysis of returns - BAA

Compounded Annual Return
Market Index Compounded Annual Return
Beta
Risk-free Rate
Stock Treynor Measure
Market Treynor Measure
(Under)/Outperformance

1-Year
Horizon
12.8%
4.61%
0.2
4.83%
39.7%
-0.22%
39.95%

Source: Bloomberg, BAA's annual report, Bank of England

Analysis of returns - American Airlines

Compounded Annual Return
Market Index Compounded Annual Return
Beta
Risk-free Rate
Stock Treynor Measure
Market Treynor Measure
Stock (Under)/Outperformance

1-Year
Horizon
-18.3%
2.34%
4.71
4.27%
-4.8%
-1.93%
-2.87%

Source: Bloomberg, AA's annual report, Fed reserve bank

Analysis of returns - Asur

Compounded Annual Return
Market Index Compounded Annual Return
Beta
Risk-free Rate
Stock Treynor Measure
Market Treynor Measure
Stock (Under)/Outperformance

1-Year
Horizon
52.5%
2.5%
0.82
4.2%
59.0%
-1.7%
60.8%

Source: Bloomberg, Asur's annual report, Mexican Central Bank

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