A Neural Network Based Predictive Mechanism for Available Bandwidth Alaknantha Eswaradass, Xian-He Sun, Ming Wu Department of Computer Science Minois Institute of Technology Chicago, Mlinois 60616, USA {feswaal, sun, wuming} @iitedu Abstract Most recent developments of computer sciences, such las web services Grid, peeriopeer, and) mobile Comping, are "network-based Their “pplcabily depends om the aaabilty ofthe ander neowark Bandwidth. However, network resowees are ‘haved end the available nerwork handwiih varie eh time. There is no satgfaciory scltion availabe for nenwork performance prediction. Ths lack af predicon Tints the aplicobty of network-based. computing, especially for Grid computing where concurrent remote ‘processing extemal In tot, we Propote “rife! Newal Neowork (ANN) based. approach for network performance prediction The ANN mecharisn Tas Been tested on claiical vac les and compared wit ‘he well-inown sem NIPS (erwark Weather Service) Jor performance Experimental rests show the ANN ‘approach always provides an improved prediction over that of NWS ANN has areal potent tn eswork comping. Keywords: Peformance prediction, Nework bandit, Artic nal network, Distributed computing 4. Introduction ‘The concept of avaiable bandwidth as been the center of atvatton troughout the history of packet ‘etwooks For many daa meds applications, sich le tenses or multimedia steaming, and. network technologies Ike content ditebuon nets, end1o- tend admission control and videladio sven the ‘bandwidth avilable to the application dicey impacts pplication performance. Peerto-peereppiaions fom ‘her dynamic user level networks bused on avalable Indwidt between peers Ovelay networis can configure thei outing tables based on the bandwith of overly links, Tough in Grid vironments, computing Fesoure can be reserved dough the “Service Level ‘Agroemen', nctwork Bandwidth is not a subject of reserve al’ dis me. The avalablty of network bandit is an impala ato in chootngwob service a In addition, sccurst and timely bandwith reasuemvat and preicion are uefa for motile onpung The mole compues Sruenty have more ‘han one week inate wth varying Dende. The robe boas wll lve the Nebiity to chow te highest Tandwidth interface Ifthe fue avaible bandwidths ‘own [2] Final, atthe network level, we could lo ‘se band wid nfrmaton fo bud mshi routing tees moce effkenly and dynamically. Teal, multicast Foating toes would be bul so ta packets travel long tree tat minimis dplcate pockets and Iteacy while maximizing bandh (2) Two throughput meties hat are commonly associated wit network ph are end-to-end capacity {nd avalbeharwith 4, In a stared envionment, the Available sandvidts varies nth tine. We need to ‘measure and pedi the svadabe bandwidth in tinely fashion 2. Background and Related Work Performance monitoring and forecasting an ative suce of veseurch, We can clawity the bandundth ‘Beasuemext and prediction methodologies in eres] ‘ways like active of passive, endo-end © hop-y-hop, Simple Newerk Managemen Protcal (SNMP) gather versus acively probed (4, network inrusve versus network fend 5] an so on. Tere are Variable Packet Size (VPS) probing methology that measures the hop: lyrhop metics, and Pocket Tran Dispersion (PTD) probing methodology that-messues the endio-nd ‘erice. The two fous tools in this category are‘Patra [6] an Puthlood (7 used for esimating capacity and avuble bandwith respectively [8 AL these methndolgies provide oly the rmeasuement part ofthe avaliable Bandwidth, ad they are ne concemed withthe prediction of the evlable ‘bandh, which serves as weil infomation in routing decisns and provides guideline in tak scheduling ‘Unfrtanately dae tothe beerogenity andthe constantly ‘varying ate of he network wai, ere ae only 8 fest ‘works avalable to” proviée prodicon of network ‘erfarmace in ems of avalable tanh and atency [va hasrogensou environment, suchas Gnd computing ‘The Nework Weather Service (NWS) [9,10] sa wel sed network perfomance measurement and prediction system in Grid computing, I periodically ses active In this work, we investigate the Artificial Newal Network (ANN) predicion approach via machine leumning algo tat leurs the model of be sistem fom te sytem tel. The ANN approach ean develop rode specie to each network syeem and provides 8 food sopoximaton a he unerying real yam, Seyral woks of using neural network for online predion can be found in the Werte, inching Sranci forecaning im the sock master, elec Toad forecasting in power networks, ful prediction in process ‘ono cal admiasion conto, ink expat aloetion ‘ATM reworks and prediction of evork eongetin (1 14} Seme eff have also been made in prediction of specie application's network trafic wit the neural stwort A multresltionlearng neural networe as been censructed to predict VBR video tai fr dynam. ‘anda contol ting real-world VBR video tai ‘oes 15]. Yousef [16] wed neural newerk to model ‘oust ilevafe pater in terms of packet umber His wok was tested on artifilygenerste afl by chaotic ‘maps Difeeat ffom ode's"work, we use the neue etiare 10 predict the svalable’ bandwith of ay ‘plication by enlying the newerk wali, instead of ‘Specie splleatons. Our work has ben teed on log term re-order rae aces, Tre has been some ocer work in using the Hear sysem represenation sutures like ARMA, ARX and ‘ARMAK [17] for bandwith predicson. However, they lack the potential of accu describing the behavior of cecremely complex systems. Neural network scheme 18 online representation of the syst allevising the problems ofthe near models ‘The et of the pape is organized a flows Section 3 presents our proposed predictive mechanism for predicting the avaiable bandwith using ANN, Section & [sets experimental ests and anaes thes; Secon 5 ictses theron time potion, ar aly Secon 6 ivesa summary and discusses fore research. 3. Neural Prediction Network Based Bandwidth Today, there ae various forecasting models ‘prevalent, employed for various sper of eppliions, Dich as expereer based Jeteministe models statistical ‘models, grobebiisie and stochastic models Al and machine lang models, and genet algorithm bated poacher Each model bas is own pot and con, ed ‘ody researchers are striving hard wo we these models individually or in combinion to achieve sccurie forecast reals. NWS is based on ssid modeling ‘Our previous work is based on probably and soca rmodeling (18, 19] ln thir staly we investigate. the Solution using risa neural networks, We describe the network wae prediction problem 1 flows: Given the observed tefl a tne ut, Tuy» Whee Lt De predcion 10 generate an estimate of 7). Whereis the prediction bacon or ‘he future time wit The network tac dat is highly owl and varie with Gime I changes bry whet ceing of leaving «congestion hour. Therefore, 10 ‘edit the dypamie mature of the tafe data we eed 0 evise an acurte predicton model We use neural networks wih their remarkable ably 10 lara fom amples and denve. meaning from complicated Jmprecise data o extract patterns ani detect tends of salable banda ‘An ANN is a nortnear clasfer of mschine- leaming algorithms. We use the Weka machine learing software [20] in Java in ou sly, Webs wcollection of ‘machine leaming algo fr solving real-world data mining. problems. The strength af ANN ae ite ‘utanding learing abilities, robusoes to nose, and litle prio nowiedge needed An ANN builds Haclf ‘trough te process of leaning from “exerene” This proces is ale ANN taining By online faring, ANN Model can take into secount the changes in he fnvizonmenil conditions and adapt its to te changes. ‘hese characiess ofthe ANN have made ita pote solution for the prediion of network wali, whichigure 1. Pereepron of neural network nour say, we ase the squashing function atthe norlinearfancton The squashing function shown below arte derivative hat can be epeseted in tems f ts pat, has pling the computation. fi ne seo). o)x(l-o() ioe pt oh changes by an amount proportional to the difference between the deszed aod the actual out anf the network adapts accordingly. At some pont, when the {ference between the seta ad the desied on i é 3.1 Network traffie data statistics Collecting wide-area neoork athe dat is a ctulleging task due to dynamics of network tai, ‘Scues to aves production network, and senses ‘of data privacy. Ths, instead of electing network tac fon our owe use ce fs, from WAND, ITA [22 tnd MOAT [23] to erly the effeivenets ofthe ANN ‘mechanion Trace les are the network trae, be directional paket dita, ie, packet tees with accte timestamps. Those NSF-finded pees ellct network ‘effi daa on rel production sytem. These data are smote rpresenative for wideares tafe tan tht of our Toca network environments 3.2 Algorithm: Statlstls of Network Traffic Data ‘The network tai data provided by WAND, ITA and MOAT we collecied ung pasive measwemext ‘methodologies tat use the ace history of eiting ata trmamison This methodology is. potentially” very efficent and acarte The wae Hes represent different ‘ypes of network Walle, and hence, experimenting on ‘em verifies the accuncy and conectnet of the Proposed prediction seme. Howevey, the aw trace file aes to ‘be pre-processed before en application hike neural swore can consume i ach trace contains paket aval, with P header snd TCP header. Each idividel packer contains some specie properties of the packs, sich a tine stamp, ‘packet length, source and denation IP edreoc, wich ould be obtained fom the IP Header. Compare with tbe individual paket infomation, we believe that he number a pckes in each second ed the numberof be i each Second ae scent 10 produce estates. of the ‘conmmed bandwadth over time. ‘Thas to cllct the information about umber of packets in each second and the numberof bits in each second fom the aw tage file, ‘we preset te following alge. 1) Parse the entire trace ie 2) Fase the timestamp and right shi by 32 bt to fet ony the dat in seconds dscrting, the anoeeconse 2) For each unique tinexamp, the conesponding ‘esis forth musber af packets andthe umber oie are added. 4) Fioally a tble with the following columns is hiuined Time," number of packets in one second, number of bis none stood 5) From this table the average nurber of bits per second gives the link uiation‘Te avaiable bandwidth of ik (can be cleulsted as fellows 4, « C,(1=,), whete ui the Kink uiization ad, eth ink capacity, ‘33 Bandwidth prediction using neural network ‘Te renin: newark rac daa obtained fom the raw traces must be asigned to specife bins inorder to Serve as input 10 the predictive sytem. The network {fic pckes ar bine! ino non-overlapping bins of = [Wedicion requirement, different bin sues ae chosen In [eneaing caning dts for reural network. For eample, ‘then the prediction of evaiable bandh inthe next $= ‘inti equed the bin size st as 300 seconds. We ten call ths a caesep predicton. Fer each bin ste, sing the messed network afl dat yp tothe Zit, the anv of (41), (+2), (110) bins are redid respectively. rion ofthe (+f) bin ing the menned Iaith da up othe bins refered to sthe msteppeicton (ne problem in the costution of neural network ‘model is the tadeot? between prediction soouney and ‘at. The cost includes Waning Cost and prediction cos, ‘wich ae related tthe mime of input parameters. eter, with more input parameters, the prediction ‘sccucy ib beter However, the increase of input umes willed to higher cos, which a set back for Ted-tine pedi. Instead of sing al possible input parameter, we need 1 enya uml set of necesary at Tsou experiments, we nally generate and use at ‘he network ‘eaffc. parameters for cach in size tisesamp, minimum packet fe, maximo packs ae, ‘erage packet rae, isimam birt, maxi Dit ae, Sverape bi ale, eerage bitrate i the past m minutes, ‘erage bit rte i he pst +r ines, average Bit rae inthe pst 1+2mt minutes and oon tl average bit rate in the past m-+i# mines Here, packet rae enoes the mumber of packets in one secod, bit rate ene the umber of bs in ne second nthe iil ‘alte, mi the sceatvediflzence betwen cach past ‘era ed denote maber of pst at egied for ‘ani the neural network. Alter exhaustively examining al combinations ofthe shove defined input parameters based on tce fs fom WAND, FTA, and MOAT, we have chosen the flowing parameters a they are wef information for bandwidth [rdicon. timestamp, wverage packet rae, average bit ‘, and ther past mformaton The maximum aad the ‘minima pockets rts int bin soe ae ielevack suibutes. The rlevaatbues wil oem the tining Input to the peual newer. We asp observed if the ‘amc exhibits «high varity inthe number of bits transfered, the vals of mand should be set smal nd ‘he value of should be st lags, x more ning wood be routed to make accurate predictions Selecting an appropriate waiting sie for network ‘bandwith prediction another problem ia ANN constuction Tn ou experiment, we tested shoe and long-term trace Mes. We found tat, the pecormaace of ‘he ANN prediction is not satisfy for shoe 8 ‘le constang tthe cla for coupe of hour ess ‘han T day. Ta is eased by inadequate ining dat. Fr long-cem ace Ses eonaing trafic dia rore thn 3 ‘weak or a month we oberved sebvrk le dat ine 10 days i enough for neural network teining. A lager ‘ening phase doesn't improve the predition accuracy. We present the preston mechanism below. itera: bin sas we choose for our experimentation sre 10, 6, 100,300, 600, 900 and 1800 seconde: We chonse the prediction seps'fam one-step 10 fvestep, The ‘ining ipl dt fo the earl network foreach in ine Conia lhe relevant aids marion’ above 1) Choosing apo parameter nthe neural network model buiding 1 Leaming rt: The leaning rate contol the level of change applied (0 the weights ner each traning period. Was high leaning rte the nel neta will react fst to) abrupt changes, which ot fvorale. Therefore, we se the leming rac to 01 ‘0 thatthe oveal bandwith pen wil be eared Maximum numberof epochs: The number of ines @ dataset ie tenedon the niaaber of epochs of ‘ring Training temization is detained ete by sing a macmum numberof epochs ofthe aewal ‘ctwor’s output err becomes less han Soe pest ‘hreaold For the bert prediction rely we st the epoch number to 700, «Number af ayes and th numberof perceptron unis ted in each yer {Input Layer: The input lye od one pereptcon {i Mien Ler The new petwork contains more than ene en layer in ender to move the secrecy of the prediction. The input of each neuron ofthe next layer i connected withthe ‘upats of al neon of the previous layer ‘Ansyzed data are ead ws neuron excaion rameters and ae fed inputs of the fat ayer. ‘hese exciations of lower layer newors ate propagated to the next layer neurons, being SSepliied or weakened according 10 weightsscribed. The numberof such hidden ayers and fhe numberof nodes o be used in ech yer ae liportntperamatera We set the number of Fidde layers a3 3 andthe number of perepten sts in each hidden ayer as 3. fo accra redicton reals, Ow experiments indicate 2 eur network model wih mote than 3 iden layers doesnot improve he predietion acurcy 4G. Gupet ayer Thi ayer contains the perpen ut forthe fl ouput attribute of the rer network. th our case, the oupet is the avaiable tendwith 2) Using constcted neusl network to predict newer bandwith The eupt of the neal networkin te bandwith dha predicted atthe next», n-+ m1, 9+ Dm an 0 fon upto 7-+1 m mines, The values ofm mand ‘depend agin on wheter the talc extibis a high Sreiblity o ot Ifthe vari i igh the value ffm mand oe sal erie they ar large ‘A neural network at deseribed above is onstrated and experiment pe cared on wing he diferenstpes of network tate files, The experiments and he ress are ‘eseribed inthe net section, 4. Experimental results ‘The AUCKLAND trac ies (24) hve ben chosen for the etre analysis AUCKLAND IV isa continues 6 1/2 week te between Febnary and April 2001 atthe University of Ausland uplink, and AUCKLAND TT calleton of 1-day tace between December 1999 and Sime 2000 tthe Universy of Ausland uplink, Neral networks ned tining ala. We choose AUCKLAND freer since they ae longterm tuces. AucMands tale ‘each he Intoret vin single ATM link al packets (in ‘both rections) ean be sen. The connection as packet peak rte of? MBlsee set in each drction OMBG/ee ‘vente two zac lee we saver). Delay measurements in general require accurate highresluin timestamps, NTP is not poo enh for ‘his purpose, snc ic only provides millisecond accarecy Al trices involved in measuring delay Tut be fynebonived. In ede wo satisfy this requesent, the WAND poup har developed the DAG earde: Eeret (orton Mp and ATM (0C3, OCI2, OCHS), AALS fd PoS, Packet traces st Auckland ar collected using ‘0 DAG ear n'a Pentiom based PC. The DAG cards ennet to the Auckland ATM link via opie splits (25,261 ‘To verify the eficieney of our Neural Network based prediction approach comparison is made with thi of ‘Network Weather Services (NWS), « widely wed model for predicion. Experiments were conducted 1 ts the erarmance of he predictive modd preseted ae tat ‘ies ANN. The primary metric we have wed for evaluation is ‘he lative peedition enor, or = PredicedValue~ ActualValue “AetualValue wher es the relative prediction er, PredicedValue ‘is the bundwdih predicted forthe next seconds and ActalVale ie the bandwith messed for he nex Seconds where mis chosen bythe ws. Mean or which ‘We we for our compustion i ealeted by everagng all of ieee ero, Figure 2-5 show the perfomance of bandwidth wedicton using the ANN mechanism and NWS. on rious bin ses and various tine periods of the [AUCKLAND Iand IV waves One sp, 2 ep, 5 tp [edicons are performed foreach in size "The charts Show thatthe predictability is good forthe one-step snd ‘he two-step” preicions. With siisequen sep prditon, the presiction ear graculyinrases, This {s inily because, asthe sep tmberinereaes, the rodieton moves tom short term Wo Tong term and fe Sceurecy slope down. Thus the ANN mechanism and [NWS ate both more acurte for tre-temm predictions For the AUCKLAND IV traces, cul be obzerved fom the gaps thatthe best prediction i obtaed uth bit size of 0 seconds for ne-sep prdicion in both the ‘ANN mechani and NWS. For te AUCKLAND Il {toes we can infer fom the graph at the best prediction {sgt aa bin sizeof 30 for onestep prediction. The ‘vation is very low in the predic ers between te ‘hose bin szs fir each step predcton with the ANN. ‘mechanism. Ths, bin size is nota determining cor of the sucess ofthe ANN based prediction epproach, 44 Performance comparisors of the ANN rmechaniso and NWS ‘The performance comparisons ofthe ANN approach snd WS ere made for varying bin zs fr one sep and ‘wo-ep prediction of AUCKLAND and IV wes Figue 6-7 shows the perfomance comparisons of he ANN an NWS for varying bin sie for one and tse predicdon of AUCKLAND IV and traces. Fig) snd Fig () show the enestep andthe wosep predictions, respectively, From the graph we can 3e€ that the prediction reals of ANN supercede tose that of NWS. fx each bin size, lusting tet the performance ofthe ANN mechanism is noticeably beter an dat of NWS. ‘The best rela he in sze of 60 fr the AUCKLAND 1V tor fle have bean found to be 10.5% mean eror sing he ANN and 12.74% mec eror wth NWS ith‘he one-step pectin. In the case of AUCKLAND IL ‘roces, results ae beta ba sie of 60 seconds with 13725 mean enor wing the ANN approch and aa bin sizeof 300 ecands with 15 80% err using NWS with ‘he one-step prediction ©) One step Pre tie! (©) Dwostep Prediction igure, AUCKLAND IV a cic Comparer A sd ‘tone xe soesop ogee ot (@) Onestep Prediction Sere Figure &: AUCKTAND IE NWS, eas pina a aS ‘ton bin acer tesen neetran (@) Twostep Prediedon Pigare 7. AUCKLAND ItNetwork traffic is ually formed by iirent sppieaions Each application may have is ove network ‘omminieation patie. The srengih of ANN is ‘oustanding Teaming. ables to care the existing pater fom training dat, fpr exis Ife bald ‘eur newer for each diferent application indivi, ‘he prediction should te more. sccrate for cach ppliatin, and then, wth an appropriate integration, the fombined predicdon shoud result in 2 teter oveal tric prediction ax wel. Isigated by this thought, we cramined the network talc compostion in the tace fle is composed of aiirent pes of application vac lite TCP, UDP, ICMP and hers. Tae appiation ace ‘tates indicate that each ype of tafe data presents 2 iteent Walle putem. Using one neural network 1 ‘haracerize the ‘overall alle pater may hide the heserogenoky of he network Uae, Instead of waning ne al network 10 leam fleet puters, we ensue n ndividlreral network model To each of them For each bin sz, we slated TCP, UDP, ]CMP tnd other tac deta end ised them Wo bull neural ‘etworks separately. Then we combined the individ Iredieton rete into the overall ae pediion Experiment tess sbow the tendimdth prediction accuracy is improved inthis way. For example, the ANN diction ever is reduced from 13.60% to 121% at bin {Soe of 600 for AUCKLAND IV ‘te fie. In the ‘experiment, we ebserved tht the prediction accuracy of UDP and 1CMP traci siguscaty lower than at of TCP, This is because around 95% of network ae in AUCKLAND fee files is TCP datz. The limited UDP ‘od ICMP wale data prevents ANN ior leering their fre puters. suficiendy. As a realy they are ‘nuded st nos ad lined, We thea use he ANN ‘model consuced fren TCP tai © predict the oval network bandwidth Aer aoise reduction, we obtained the predictions at ferent bin sles Tor one-stop it ‘AUCKLAND IV end TI tacer sing the ANN and enpared wih NWS Figue & (@) and () ilusrate that the prediction results of the ANN mechanism ae fither improved mpd with rents in Figure 6 (a) and Figure 7 (3). “The experimeral ren net thatthe ANN prediction approach bata ptetial to present a beter performance ‘han NWS inary stun. “Table 1 summarizes the experimental resus of the riginal taf prediction, the edition afer analyzing ‘he network tlic composition (before noise reduction) tod the prediction afer remeving the negligible ‘orsiuents ofthe network walle (after noise redusion) for eno-tep. From the able we sep th, conancting ‘individual neural networks for each type of baie and ‘rtegrating fo obtain the overall prediction reduce the ‘ero percentage. By noise eduction the eor percentage is farther reduced. Compared withthe prediction enor of INWS (before noise reduction, the performance gun Is 26.1% foe AUCKLAND IV and 3449 for AUCKLAND Th Table 1 aan shows that alee reduction docs ot benefit NWS. This ib probably doe so the mal Iimitation of NWS in Teaming. complex application ptiems (AUCKLAND IV (@) AUCKLAND ‘igure 8 Performance comparison of ANN and NWS ‘er neue redection ‘Table J. Performance comparison after and before ois reduction Pein] Node!contbute soni constients of the overall affie, {dividual neural networks oad to be Bat and combined Io the ofall tee prediction Please notice tht we tte the predistion of TCP to predict AUCKLAND. Ifthe ‘tae He is based on one application, the prediction can be even mare ascrte This demonstrates the learing sbi oft ANN, 42 Trai prediction example Asdeserbe erie, predictors ate ained sing ‘heft aloft race dats, whl prediction we made ‘on te second half Figure 9 shows the wali prediction ‘on AUCKLAND IV tee. The carve son in pin isthe Sinng dt andthe nein yellow is the ANN prediction ‘We can ee tht the ANN prediction does capture ie ceeumuniton pater Wel. 43 The cost ofthe ANN approach ‘The cos ofa predictive system is very important for is deliver in rate. Because the ANN approach builds | nopiner model fer network trafic prediction, cost in general is geater thn those prediction systoms hat wse near edison models. Is the cost ofthe ANN approach ‘easorable? To answer this question, we tested the ANN ‘ost i buh ining phase and prediction phase. In ‘genera, he neural never reques a large wating np ‘AUCKLAND IV tes We et sett the unig ine fs liner wth reget to the ting sample size When the sample size i 32921, the traning tie is 3 minute, Waining, pees would sot affect the timelines of ecformance prediction. The neural nctwork prediction i Ich faster” Tt takes 1.5 miliscoonds {0 make a ‘rediton PETTITTE ()ANN wit ini of 300 senne Figure. Comparison wih trae dts‘Table2 ANN Cat Base | wp aw [a [wo | 5 | ae |e | et [ tose [eo | sso | 22 | os Tens [us [io [| @ [als 5 Runtime Prediction Uses pemensed se Ales weave demonstrated te potential of the ANN’ approach for ‘network bandwidth prediction. The next qurston is how {o swend te ANN approach 20 tat ean provide rape tine performance prion Trace information can be ‘lle a rine. For stance, a each outer in the ‘nd-toend path he DAG card ean be fited to ease ‘he network raf and the bandwidth data le car be reso ‘sing the attics of network Wale date ‘Sgord desrbed in Section 3. Then, the ANN Dedicien approach can be applied. This tace-bsed Dassve meaturemeatappogch uses acual observed ‘afi data without perturbing the network, bu reques the access tothe oars The ANN base prediction limited passive measurements. It can tse ative probe to colet is waiing data We have wed the input aa of NWS to compare the performance of the ANN tnechanm and NWS. We contder the tric data ‘eased between diferent source and destination pis ‘ibe Univers of California a Sania Barbara fr ou ‘iperimentation [27] We peroem ooe-sop predicting swith the bin rze of 6D secon Table 3 provides Os parison rents Its evident tha he ANN’ apecach Drvides beter accuracy. The ANN mechanism can be "sed with the NWS monor subsystem or be incorporated {ito “the NWS sysiem as allerative prediction fictional to provide improved performance prediction Table 3, Ran time Comparison of the ANN with NWS, ei cue] farmmcauct edi | joptines iss ARR 1a [RWs 200% Tosh 150 6. Conclasion and Future Work In this paper, we have proposed an Artfcial Neural eswork (ANN) predictive. mechanism fOr network Tendwidh avaiablity estimation The proposed ANN rdicdon approach as been tested on longer real- world network te traces and wih NWS performance ‘monitoring da. To vel the efficency ofthe propsed ediction system, experiments are then conducted to Compare the predsion crore of the proposed ANN’ Spproach wah tht of the well-Annan netwror recson ‘Stem NWS on the AUCKLAND Tl and TV unces. We ‘made predictions by building inva neural networks fer each ype of network tafe and itgrating to cba the overall predictions. We slo categorized the oie sod perrmed predictions after noise redvetion. Fil, we Investigated the fealty of the ANN method in Providing’ runtime prediction and. compared. the perfrmance af the ANN’ approach and NWS. woth ‘monitoring da collected by NWS fuel Experimenal Tesuls indie tht the ANN approach can secraely ‘Str compliated eter allie aterm ee. tebits a noticeably improved perfrmance over that of NWS. In eden, the ANN predeton mechanism can leary 's communication pater, if one exit and ean provide an even beter performance esl, ws sated with diferent network applications. That demansries the potenti of ANN in supporting apalicaiondevel performance preicions, The ANN prediction only takes 1S miliseconds in ou experiments When the munber of ‘ining samples s 3000, the taiing co is les than 20, Second. "The proposed ANN pedition mechanism is feaule and practical. 1 can tie he NWS monitoring sysen for ‘network bandwith prodcion or be ‘eorperaed into NWS or other perommance systns for an improvedaliemave network prion Our eurent ‘work manly fuses on predicting stwork performance ‘th the ANN nechanian Consider user requesting fil from some servers ‘The file has to be Wanted 1 the ser following the transport proiacols like TCP. “TCP. stems to ynamically and. adaptively search forthe maximum. possible rate using techniques such as slow stat or fongestion avoidance, which often lead to network ‘underutizaion and iow application ougput Out ‘ropesed neal necoere model avis thse problems, ‘ths enabling the anspor protco and applications 1 achieve higher throughput and react faster to changing ecworkcandiions In the fare, ve pln o develop [ANN sed bandwidth poticive stem and interaethe predictive system with new ‘nese proaches [3,8] 10 provide realtime enine network performance prediction ‘The ANN mechanism is a complement of the ‘somputing, mods! proposed in [18] and wll be wed in ‘GHS [19] er perfomance prediction end tsk scheduling,‘Acknowledgments ‘This reiech was supported in pst by nation sience foundation under NSF" gant "CNS-0406328, SCI. 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