TAP CH KHOA HOC, ai hoc Hu, S 43, 2007

MI QUAN H GIA T GI HI OI V CN CN
THNG MI VIT NAM THI K 1995 - 2004
Phan Thanh Hon, Nguyn ng Ho
Trng i hc Kinh t,i hc Hu

Thc tin cho thy, s bin ng ca t gi hi oi c quan h mt thit vi kt

qu ca nn kinh t v m. y l mt bin s quan trng nh hng n s cnh tranh
ca hng ho ngoi thng v nhng bin s khc trong nn kinh t. S thay i trong
cn cn thng mi do bin ng ca t gi l mt vn quan trng v c bn trong
chnh sch kinh t v m. C hai l do cho vn ny l: (i) nhng nh hoch nh
chnh sch thng quan tm n vic mc no th cn cn thng mi l ti u
cho mt nc; (ii) s bin ng ca cn cn thng mi nh hng trc tip n thu
nhp quc dn trong ngn hn, v vy, nghin cu tc ng ca t gi hi oi n cn
cn thng mi gip cho vic hoch nh mc tiu ca thu nhp quc dn. i vi Vit
Nam, vic nghin cu v tho lun v chnh sch t gi hi oi trong thi gian qua l
mt vn nhy cm, khng nhng v chnh bn thn tm quan trng ca n m cn v
nh hng ln lao ca n n nn kinh t. Trong nhng nm qua, xut khu ca Vit
Nam tng trng kh n tng, tuy vy cn cn thng mi ca Vit Nam lun thm
ht. Do vy, vn t ra y l quan h gia chnh sch t gi vi ngoi thng l
nh th no? Liu chnh sch t gi trong thi gian qua h tr cho hot ng xut
khu? Kt qu tr li nhng cu hi trn s l cn c cho vic hoch nh chnh sch t
gi nhm t c mt chnh sch ngoi thng hp l, phc v tng trng kinh t
trong bi cnh ton cu ho v hi nhp kinh t quc t ngy cng su sc ca Vit Nam
trong thi gian ti.
Trong bi vit ny, chng ti s dng l thuyt ng lin kt (Cointegration
theory) v C ch hiu chnh sai s (ECM Error Correction Model) nhm kim nh
cc hiu ng ngn hn v di hn ca tc ng ca t gi n cn cn thng mi nhm
xc nh m hnh ca mi quan h gia hai nhn t ny. L thuyt ng lin kt c
pht trin bi Granger (1981) v hon thin bi Engle v Granger (1987). L thuyt
ny, t , c p dng ph bin trong phn tch quan h gia cc bin s kinh t l
dy s thi gian.
I. C s l thuyt
1.1. Phng trnh quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi
Quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi l mi quan tm nghin cu
ca nhiu nh kinh t hc t trc n nay. Nhiu nghin cu v vn ny ch ra
61

rng: Mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi thay i qua thi gian, v

c th chia thnh hai loi l quan h trong ngn hn v quan h trong di hn. Trc
tin, mt s gim gi ca ni t so vi ngoi t, tc t gi tng, s c nh hng trc
tip ngay ln gi c nhp khu. Trong khi , gi c xut khu cha chu s tc ng
ny. Kt qu l cn cn thng mi, c o bng hiu s gia kim ngch xut khu v
nhp khu s suy gim. Tuy nhin, qua thi gian, lng nhp khu s gim do gi c
nhp khu tng. ng thi, gi c hng ho xut khu tnh bng ngoi t s gim, lm
tng tnh cnh tranh trn th trng quc t, dn n lng xut khu tng. Nh vy,
theo thi gian (trong di hn), cn cn thng mi s chuyn bin theo chiu hng tch
cc (thng d)1.
kim nh mi quan h gia hai bin s ny, cn cn thng mi c biu th
l mt hm s ca t gi hi oi thc a phng. C th, ta c phng trnh sau:
ln( Bt ) 0 1 ln(qt ) u t

Trong : Bt l t s thng mi; ln biu th logarit t nhin v u l nhiu.

y, cn cn thng mi c biu th bng t s thng mi gia kim ngch xut khu
v kim ngch nhp khu. L do chnh ca vic s dng ny l c th dng logarit ca
bin t s thng mi ny trong cc m hnh kim nh. y l phng trnh quan h
c s dng trong nghin cu ny nhm xc nh mi quan h gia cn cn thng
mi v t gi hi oi.
1.2. M hnh nh lng
Vi m hnh biu th mi quan h gia t gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi
xc nh trn (biu thc 3), chng ti p dng phng php phn tch mi quan h
ny bng l thuyt ng lin kt (Cointegration theory) v m hnh c ch hiu chnh
sai s (ECM Error Correction Model).
Phn tch bin ng di hn M hnh ng lin kt
Trong nghin cu kinh t, chng ta thng gi lp m hnh m cc bin s
kinh t c quan h vi nhau v thng c m t di dng cc cn bng, chng hn
nh:
y t 0 1 xt u t

Trong : yt v xt l cc bin chui, l tham s c lng,v u t l sai s. iu

ng quan tm y l nu phng trnh cn bng trn l tn ti th c tnh ca sai s
cn bng ut s l nh th no. Mt c trng quan trng ca u t s l mt bin chui c
gi tr trung bnh nh v khng c xu hng ln dn hay nh dn theo thi gian. V vy,
nu bin chui sai s ny l bin ngu nhin th gi tr trung bnh c tnh s bng 0 v
c cng phng sai. Mt bin chui sai s vi c tnh ny c gi l bin chui tnh
(Stationary Time Series). Bin chui tnh l khi nim c bn v quan trng trong l
thuyt ng lin kt. V th, trong khi c lng cc tham s hoc kim nh gi thit
ca cc m hnh, nu khng kim nh thuc tnh ny ca bin chui th cc k thut
1

Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, International Economics: Theory and Policy, 5th Edition, AddisonWesley Publishing Company, p. 466-468.

62

phn tch thng thng (chng hn nh k thut OLS) s khng cn chnh xc v hp

l. Do , nu s dng phng php phn tch hi quy tng quan nh trn s dn n
tng quan gi (Granger v Newbold, 1974)2. Kt qu ca loi hi quy ny s dn
n cc kim nh thng k nh t, F, R 2 s b lch. Ni mt cch khc, hi quy lch s
cho kt qu cc kim nh thng k t v R 2 rt tt nhng m hnh c th hon ton
khng c ngha. V vy, trc khi xy dng v phn tch m hnh, cn phi c kim
nh thuc tnh tnh ca cc bin chui trc khi a vo s dng.
Hai bin chui yt v xt c coi l ng lin kt (cointegrated) nu tn ti mt
tham s :
u t y t x t

cng l mt bin chui tnh (stationary variable).

Da vo l thuyt v ng lin kt nh trn, chng ta c phng php kim nh
v phn tch m hnh s dng nh sau:
(i) Kim tra thuc tnh bin tnh ca d liu;
(ii) Nu cc bin s dng l bin tnh lin kt cng bc th tin hnh phng php
hi quy vi phng trnh: ln( Bt ) 0 1 ln(qt ) u t
(iii) Kim tra thuc tnh tnh ca phn d (residual) t kt qu hi quy trn. Nu
phn d l mt bin chui tnh th hai bin s trong m hnh l ng lin kt. T
phn tch kt qu m hnh.
Phn tch bin ng ngn hn M hnh ECM ( C ch hiu chnh sai s)
tnh ton mc tc ng ca t gi thc n hot ng thng mi, phn ln
cc nghin cu quc t s dng khi nim h s co gin thng mi hay c th hn l
h s co gin xut khu v nhp khu. Cc h s ny c o bng t l gia s thay
i phn trm ca xut khu hay nhp khu vi s thay i phn trm ca t gi thc.
M hnh ECM - C ch iu chnh sai s (Error-Correction Mechanism) c s dng
rng ri trong cc nghin cu quc t c lng cc h s co gin trn.
H s 1 l cc kt qu ban u ca h s co gin di hn t s thng mi ca t
gi thc a phng (t m hnh ng lin kt). Bc tip theo l c lng phng
trnh ng, trong c cc hiu s khc bit th nht (first difference) ca bin c lp
v sai s tr (lag residuals) t phng trnh u tin c gi l bin iu chnh sai s
(error-correction term). C th, m hnh ECM c s dng trong nghin cu ny l m
hnh kinh t lng chun tc c dng sau:
ln( Bt ) 0 1 ln(qt ) t 1 u t

Trong 1 l h s co gin xut khu ngn hn ca t gi thc a phng, l

h s ca bin iu chnh sai s ch tc m h thng tip cn n trng thi cn bng
di hn. C th, mc tr trung bnh ca qu trnh iu chnh n trng thi cn bng
di hn l -1/. iu ny c ngha l gi tr tuyt i ca cng ln th qu trnh iu
chnh din ra cng nhanh.
2

Jack Johnston, John Dinardo (2003), Econometric Methods, Fourth Editions, McGRAW - HILL
International Editions

63

Nghin cu v tc ng ca t gi thc ln xut khu ca Vit Nam, Lord (2002)

s dng m hnh ECM tnh h s co gin xut khu mt hng giy dp ca t gi
thc trong ngn hn v di hn. Kt qu hi quy ca nghin cu ny cho thy tc ng
ca t gi thc ln xut khu giy dp c ngha v mt thng k trn th trng ton
cu v trn mt s th trng khu vc. H s co gin xut khu giy dp ca t gi thc
trn th trng ton cu l 1,8 trong ngn hn v 2,0 trong di hn. Trong ngn hn h
s ny l 0,1 i vi th trng ASEAN-5 v 0,3 i vi th trng M. Trong di hn
h s ny l 0,4 i vi th trng M v 1,9 i vi th trng EU3.
Lord cn cho rng ch s o lng mc cnh tranh thch hp hn cho tng th
trng l t gi thc so snh (cross-rates) gia Vit Nam v cc i tc thng mi
quan trng. S dng ch s t gi thc so snh tc gi ch ra rng tnh cnh tranh ca
Vit Nam trong nhng nm gn y tng ln trn th trng Trung Quc, M, trong khi
li gim xung trn nhng th trng khc nh ASEAN, Nht Bn v EU. Vic gim
tnh cnh tranh trn th trng EU c gii thch l do ng la ln gi so vi ng
euro v mi lin quan cht ch gia ng Vit Nam v la.
M hnh ECM c s dng nhiu trong cc nghin cu quc t v c nhn
nhn l mt phng php thch hp lng ha tc ng trong ngn hn v di hn
ca t gi thc ln khi lng xut khu ca nhiu nc, v d trong cc nghin cu ca
Bayoumi (1996), Wren-Lewis (1998), Lord (2002).... Tuy nhin, hin nay ngoi nghin
cu ca Lord (2002) trong lnh vc xut khu giy dp vn cha c mt nghin cu no
s dng phng php trn nh gi tc ng i vi ton b xut khu v nhp khu
ca Vit Nam. Do vy trong nghin cu ny chng ti p dng phng php trn vi
dy s liu theo qu t nm 1995 n nm 2005. Vic s dng s liu theo qu cho
php c mt chui s liu tng i ln c th a ra nhng kt qu c tin cy v
mt thng k. Ti Vit Nam, ngn hng Nh nc kim sot cht ch bin ng ca t
gi, nn dao ng ngn hn ca t gi l rt nh khng gy tc ng ng k n xut
khu. Do , chng ti ch cp n tc ng ca nhng thay i mang tnh di hn
hn ca t gi ln xut, nhp khu, c th y l nhng thay i theo qu.
II. Kt qu
s dng m hnh nh lng, chng ti tnh ton hai bin s ny vi s liu
qu ly t ngun s liu ca Thng k ti chnh quc t (IFS). Thi k nghin cu
y l t Qu 1 nm 1995 n Qu 4 nm 2005 v Qu 1-1995 l k gc xc lp t
gi thc a phng. Cc i tc thng mi ln c mt trong tnh ton t gi gm:
Singapore, Nht, M, Trung Quc, Hn Quc, Hng Kng, i Loan, c v c.
Ngoi ra, kim tra tc ng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t khu vc nm
1997 i vi hai bin s phn tch nu trn, chng ti s dng bin gi (dummy) DU 99
vi gi tr = 1 cc qu nm 1999, thi gian cn li bin gi c gi tr bng 0. L do
ca vic la chn mc thi gian cho bin gi ny l sau khng hong ti chnh tin t,
3

Nguyn Vn Tin (2003), T gi thc v tc ng ca n n cn cn thng mi, Tp ch nghin cu

Kinh t, s 12

64

nm 1999 cc nc trong khu vc iu chnh li t gi hi oi ca nc mnh cho

ph hp vi iu kin mi.
Cc bc phn tch mi quan h gia t gi v cn cn thng mi c thc hin
nh sau: quan st biu , chy m hnh hi quy ng lin kt, hi quy hiu chnh sai s
v kt lun.
Bng 1: T gi danh ngha, thc t song phng v a phng ca
Vit Nam thi k 1995 - 2004

Nm
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

T gi danh
ngha1
8.125
11.500
10.565
10.842
11.051
11.015
11.149
12.292
13.890
14.028
14.514
15.084
15.403
15.646
15.777

NEER3

T gi thc
t2
13.898
18.187
15.505
14.894
14.069
12.435
12.198
13.024
13.326
13.037
14.514
14.806
14.718
15.276
15.172

100,00
143,44
129,28
131,45
139,13
141,75
143,97
143,84
161,64
161,52
161,15
160,16
171,94
183,62
191,48

REER4
100,00
140,69
122,20
120,27
123,33
114,40
112,88
111,22
118,24
114,48
116,49
114,40
122,79
129,38
129,48

T s thng
mi5
87,35
89,26
101,53
76,07
69,58
66,82
65,11
78,68
81,21
99,28
92,42
94,38
86,35
79,98
82,42

Ghi ch: 1: T gi danh ngha USD/VND (S VND=1USD)

2: T gi thc t USD/VND (S VND=1 USD)
3: Ch s t gi hiu lc danh ngha a phng (%, nm 1990=100)
4: Ch s t gi hiu lc thc t a phng (%, nm 1990=100)
5: T s xut khu/nhp khu (%)
Ngun: Nin gim thng k 2004, Thng k ti chnh quc t - IFS (International
Financial Statistics), 2005, Ngn hng th gii, 2005, Kinh t Vit Nam v Th gii 2004-2005.

T nm 1992 n nm 1997, chnh sch t gi hi oi c iu chnh chng

lm pht v thu ht u t nc ngoi. thc hin mc tiu chng lm pht, chnh
sch t gi c iu hnh c gng duy tr s n nh ca t gi hi oi danh ngha. V
vy, thi k ny t gi hiu lc thc t a phng (REER) gim ti 11%.
S n nh t gi hi oi danh ngha nhng nm ny tm thi gp phn tch
cc vo vic kim ch lm pht, thu ht u t nc ngoi, thc y tng trng kinh t
65

vi tc cao trn 8% nm. Nhng vic duy tr t gi hi oi danh ngha gn nh c

nh trong iu kin lm pht c kim ch song vn cao hn lm pht ca M
(nc c ng tin chim t trng ch yu trong gi ngoi t xc nh t gi ca Vit
Nam) v cc nc c quan h thng mi ch yu ca Vit Nam, ng thi ng USD
c xu hng tng gi t nm 1995 lm cho VN c xu hng ngy cng b nh gi
cao hn thc t. iu ny c nhng nh hng tiu cc n hot ng xut khu m
biu hin t s thng mi gim t 101,53% xung cn 78,68%.
Biu 1: T gi hiu lc a phng v t s thng mi ca Vit Nam
vi cc bn hng ch yu thi k 1995 - 2005

Biu trn y cho thy bin ng ca t gi hiu lc a phng v t s thng

mi ca Vit Nam vi cc bn hng ch yu thi k 1995-2005. Nhn chung, xu hng
bin ng ca hai bin s ny l tng ln theo thi gian. mt vi thi k nh 19951996, 1997-1999, 1999-2001, khi t gi hiu lc tng hay gim th t s thng mi
cng bin ng theo chiu hng tng t. iu ny chng t c mi lin h nht
nh gia t gi thc vi cn cn thng mi ca Vit Nam trong thi gian qua, c
ngha l s xung gi thc ca ng Vit Nam so vi ng tin ca cc i tc thng
mi ch yu lm tng sc cnh tranh ca hng ho xut khu ca Vit Nam trn cc
th trng , t xut khu gia tng, lm tng t s thng mi; hay ni cch khc l
ci thin cn cn thng mi.
Kt qu m hnh hi quy ng lin kt v c ch hiu chnh sai s ca cc bin t
gi hiu lc a phng v cn cn thng mi nh sau:
Bng 2: Kim nh nghim n v cc bin trong m hnh ng lin kt

Bin s
Ln(T s TM)

Kim nh ADF (t statistics)

-1.551
66

Ln(Ch s RER)
(Ln(T s TM))
(Ln(Ch s RER))

1.278
-2.264*
-2.611*

Ghi ch: * c ngha thng k mc 5%

Bng 3: Kt qu m hnh hi quy ng lin kt

Bin s
H s c lng
Gi tr kim nh
Hng s
-0,370*
-16,397
Ln(REER)
0,704*
6,592
DU99
0,0711
1,411
R-square: 0,525. F test: F(2,41) = 22,72 (0,000). Durbin-Watson test = 2,063
Kim nh nghim n v ADF i vi phn d t hi quy trn: t = -2.970*
Ghi ch: * c ngha thng k mc 5%

Nh vy, hm hi quy th hin mi quan h gia T gi hiu lc a phng v T

s thng mi s l:
Ln(T s TM) = -0,3706 + 0,7042 x Ln(REER)
Kt qu kim nh phn d (Residual) cho thy hai bin s ny l ng lin kt
bc I. Cc tham s kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh khng nh m hnh l c
ngha.
Bng 4: Kt qu m hnh hiu chnh sai s
Bin s

H s c lng
Gi tr kim nh
Hng s
0,010
0,536
Ln(REER)
-0,157
-0,234
Ln(REER)-1
0,559
0,801
Ln(REER)-2
-0,673
-0,966
Ln(REER)-3
1,409*
2,199
Ln(REER)-4
-0,535
-0,901
(Sai s tr)-1
-1,016
-6,432
R-square: 0,618, F test: F(6,32) = 8,65 (0,000), Durbin-Watson test = 2,126

Mc ngha
0,592
0,815
0,423
0,334
0,027
0,367
0,000

Ghi ch: * c ngha thng k mc 5%

-1;-2... biu th mc tr theo qu
Kt qu m hnh th hin cc bng trn cho thy t gi hi oi v cn cn
thng mi c quan h vi nhau trong di hn v ngn hn. Cc tham s thng k ca
cc m hnh u chng t cc m hnh l ph hp v c ngha. M hnh hi quy ng
lin kt ch r c mi lin kt gia hai bin s phn tch. H s c lng ca t gi
hiu lc a phng mang du dng (0,704) v c ngha thng k, tc l trong di
hn, mt s tng ln ca t gi hiu lc a phng c tc ng tch cc n cn cn
thng mi m y chnh l t s thng mi. iu ny hon ton ph hp vi gi
67

thit nghin cu ban u. Bin s DU99 khng c ngha thng k, iu c ngha l

s bin ng mnh ca cc ng tin lin quan trong cuc khng hong ti chnh-tin t
khu vc nm 1997 khng c tc ng n hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam. Mi
quan h gia hai nhn t ny trong di hn cn c khng nh qua kt qu ca m
hnh c ch hiu chnh sai s, c th l bin s (Sai s tr)-1 c ngha thng k v
mang du thch hp. Tuy nhin, mc gii thch ca m hnh khng cao, th hin h
s kim nh ph hp ca m hnh l 0,525. iu ny cng hon ton ph hp bi
trn thc t, hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam trong thi k ny cn chu tc ng
bi nhiu nhn t khc.
V mi quan h gia hai bin s trong ngn hn, kt qu m hnh c ch hiu
chnh sai s cho thy c mi quan h gia chng. Mc tr trong tc ng ca t gi
hiu lc a phng n cn cn thng mi l kh ln, th hin bin s Ln(REER)3. C ngha l, bin ng ca t gi qu th 3 v trc s c tc ng n hot ng
xut, nhp khu thi im hin ti. iu ny ph hp vi l thuyt thng mi cng
nh thc t ngoi thng Vit Nam, c th l nhng mt hng xut khu ch lc ca
Vit Nam phn ln l nng sn. V th, y l phn ng tr trong sn xut i vi thay
i ca t gi hi oi. Mt khc nhp khu ca Vit Nam chu nhiu tc ng ca cc
chnh sch khc hn l t gi.
Kt qu nghin cu trn cng vi nhng nghin cu trc y v vn ny mt
ln na khng nh tc ng tch cc ca vic tng t gi thc (ng Vit Nam xung
gi) i vi hot ng xut khu ca Vit Nam. iu ny cho thy vic ch ng ph
gi ni t trong nhng nm qua c hiu qu nht nh trong vic tng cng xut
khu. Vn t ra y l liu Vit Nam c nn ph gi ng tin trong thi gian ti
thc y xut khu, t ci thin cn cn thng mi hay khng? y l mt vn
phc tp bi thc y xut khu i hi mt h thng bin php khc nhau, khng
n thun l chnh sch t gi. Mt khc, t gi l mt bin s v m rt nhy cm tc
ng n nhiu bin s v m khc nh thng mi, cn cn thanh ton, ngn sch
chnh ph, n nc ngoi... Do , vic xem xt chnh sch t gi phi c t trong
mt tng th chnh sch ca Chnh ph. C mt s l do cho thy cn phi thn trng
khi xem xt quyt nh c nn ph gi hay khng nh sau:
Th nht, trong m hnh cn bng di hn (Cointegration Model) v m hnh bin
ng ngn hn (ECM) gia t gi thc v cn cn thng mi ca nghin cu ny mi
cp n tc ng ca t gi thc ln xut, nhp khu ch cha xem xt tc ng n
cc bin s v m khc. Bn cnh , vic ph gi ng Vit Nam s lm cho nhp khu
s tr nn t hn i vi cc nh sn xut trong nc. Hin ti, nhiu ngnh kinh t
ca Vit Nam cn ph thuc nng n vo u vo nhp khu nh nng nghip, dt may,
cng nghip ha cht, in t... Do , ph gi s y chi ph sn xut ca nhng ngnh
ny ln cao c th gy nn lm pht do chi ph (cost-push) i vi ton nn kinh t. T
, gi c hng ho xut khu cng gia tng tnh bng ni t, dn n hiu ng tch cc
68

ca ph gi i vi xut khu tr nn bng khng. Th hai, ph gi s lm n nc

ngoi ca chnh ph v nhng t chc kinh t khc gia tng tnh theo ng Vit Nam
khin cho ngn sch Chnh ph thm kh khn, nhng doanh nghip vay ngoi t ca
ngn hng tin hnh kinh doanh trn th trng ni a cng s b thit hi do ngoi
t ln gi so vi ng Vit Nam. V nhng l do trn, cn phi tnh ton rt cn thn
nhng li ch v chi ph ca vic ph gi ng Vit Nam trc khi ra nhng quyt nh
quan trng v vn ny.
III. Kt lun
cp n chnh sch t gi Vit Nam l mt vn ht sc nhy cm, lin
quan n hng lot cc yu t cu trc kinh t v c cc vn chnh tr, x hi. Nhiu
nghin cu cho rng, vic cn lm trc mt l ph gi ng Vit Nam lm tng tnh
cnh tranh ca hng ha Vit Nam trn th trng th gii. Quan im ny cn cho rng
ng Vit Nam hin nay c t gi thc c hiu lc (real effective exchange rate REER) cao, ngha l t gi iu chnh theo lm pht ca mt r tin t ca cc nc
m Vit Nam c quan h mu dch4.
Kt qu nghin cu ny cho thy, trong thi k 1995 2004, t gi hi oi danh
ngha gia ng Vit Nam vi cc ng tin ca cc bn hng ch yu th hin xu
hng tng, ng ngha vi vic ng Vit Nam mt gi. Tuy nhin, da trn kt qu
tnh ton c, t gi hi oi thc t b gim ti hn 20%. Trong giai on 19921997, vic duy tr t gi hi oi danh ngha gn nh c nh trong iu kin lm pht
c kim ch song vn cao hn lm pht ca M (nc c ng tin chim t trng
ch yu trong gi ngoi t xc nh t gi ca Vit Nam) v cc nc c quan h
thng mi ch yu ca Vit Nam, ng thi ng USD c xu hng tng gi t nm
1995 lm cho VN c xu hng ngy cng b nh gi cao hn thc t. iu ny
to ra v tch ly nhng nhn t gy mt n nh v km hm s pht trin kinh t.
Kt qu nghin cu cng khng nh c s tn ti ca quan h gia hai bin
s v m ny trong ngn hn v di hn. Trong ngn hn, s tc ng ca t gi c tnh
cht tr, v trong di hn hai bin s ny tin ti mt quan h cn bng (ng lin kt).
T nhng phn tch trn, khuyn ngh i vi vic hoch nh chnh sch t gi phc v
hot ng xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam l:
Th nht, t gi l mt trong nhng nhn t quan trng nh hng nhanh v mnh
n trng thi cn cn thng mi, chnh v vy khi phn tch din bin v xu hng
vn ng ca cn cn thng mi, khng th khng cp n nhn t t gi. Tuy
nhin, nu cn c vo din bin ca t gi danh ngha (song phng hay a phng)
phn tch nh hng ln cn cn thng mi l khng chun xc, m phi s dng n
t gi thc v ch yu l t gi thc a phng.
4

Trn Ngc Th, Tin ng c nh gi cao hay thp?, Thi bo kinh t Si Gn, s 30-2006 (814)

69

Th hai, thc y xut khu tng trng mnh hn th t gi thc khng th

qu thp nh Vit Nam trong sut thi gian qua. Vn iu chnh t gi l t gi
thc t mc bao nhiu l hp l.
Tm li, trong nhng nhn t tc ng n hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam
trong thi gian qua, t gi hi oi c mt vai tr ht sc quan trng. Cc nghin cu
trong v ngoi nc trong thi gian qua khng nh mi quan h v tc ng gia t
gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi Vit Nam vi cc mc khc nhau. Nghin cu
ny nhm phn tch mt cch su hn mi quan h gia hai bin s v cho mt
kt qu tng t. iu ny gp phn lm vng chc c s cho vic hoch nh chnh
sch t gi nhm phc v tt hn hot ng ngoi thng ca Vit Nam trong thi gian
ti.
TI LIU THAM KHO
1. Jack Johnston, John Dinardo. Econometric Methods, Fourth Editions, McGRAW HILL International Editions (2003)
2. Kenichi Ohno. Exchange Rate Management of Vietnam, Re-examination of Policy
Goals and Modality, Research paper, The National Graduate Institute for Policy
Studies, Japan (2003)
3. Nguyn Vn Tin. T gi thc v tc ng ca n n cn cn thng mi, Tp ch
Nghin cu Kinh t, s 12 (2003)
4. Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, International Economics: Theory and Policy, 5th
Edition, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company
5. Phan Thanh Hon. T gi vi cn cn thng mi: Kinh nghim ca Hn Quc. Lun
vn cao hc, i hc KyungHee, Hn Quc (2003)
6. Qu tin t Quc t, Thng k ti chnh quc t - IFS (International Financial
Statistics) (2005)
7. Trn Ngc Th, Tin ng c nh gi cao hay thp?, Thi bo Kinh t Si Gn, s
30 (2006) 814
8. Vin Kinh t hc, Trung tm Khoa hc X hi & Nhn vn Quc gia, Tp ch Nghin
cu Kinh t, cc s 292,293, 299 (2003, 2004)

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE

BALANCE OF VIETNAM IN THE PERIOD OF 1995-2004
Phan Thanh Hoan, Nguyen Dang Hao
College of Economics, Hue University

SUMMARY
This study presents an empirical assessment of the relationship between the exchange rate
and the balance of trade in Vietnam during the period of 1995-2004. Using cointegration

70

theory, this study tests the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance of Vietnam.
Specifically, the study test for the statistical significance, direction, and speed of the trade
balance response to the changes in exchange rate. The study also tests for short-run and longrun effects to determine the pattern of the exchange rate and trade balance relationship in
general.
The result shows the theoretical framework of the study as well as major findings of
previous studies related to that. The statistical results provide evidence of the J-curve effect,
which indicates that the trade balance initially deteriorates in response to devaluations. More
specifically, the result shows the trade balance adjusts gradually to the exchange rate change,
requiring a period of about two quarters. In the long-run, we find that devaluation improves the
trade balance. Our results thus confirm the potency of the exchange rate as a long-run tool of
trade policy.

71