Gii tch kt hp

[SAMI-HUST]Vin Ton ng dng v Tin hc, HBK H Ni

Quy tc nhn

1.1 Quy tc nhn

Quy tc nhn
Nu c m cch chn i tng x, v sau ng vi mi cch chn x nh th c n cch
chn i tng y, khi c m n cch chn i tng "x v y".
Tng qut: Nu c m1 cch chn i tng x1 , vi mi cch chn i tng x1 ta c
m2 cch chn i tng x2 , . . . , vi mi cch chn x1 , x2 , . . . , xn1 nh th c mn
cch chn xn . Khi c m1 m2 mn cch chn i tng x1 , x2 , . . . v xn .

Chng 1: S kin ngu nhin v php tnh xc

sut
Trn Minh Ton

Ch 1.1

(1)

C th pht biu quy tc nhn theo cch sau: Mt cng vic c chia lm n giai on:
giai on th nht c m1 cch gii quyt,
H Ni, thng 8 nm 2012

giai on th 2 c m2 cch gii quyt,

...
giai on th n c mn cch gii quyt.
Khi c m1 m2 . . . mn cch gii quyt cng vic trn.

(1)

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Xc sut thng k

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Gii tch kt hp

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Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Chnh hp lp

Chnh hp lp

Bi ton

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Gii tch kt hp

V d 1

Ta c mt tp hp gm n phn t, t n phn t ny ta s chn ra k phn t. Tu vo

iu kin chn cc phn t nh th no (c th t, c lp) th s cch chn k phn t
cng c s khc nhau.
nh ngha 1.1
Chnh hp lp chp k ca n phn t l mt nhm c th t gm k phn t chn t n
phn t cho, trong mi phn t c th c chn nhiu ln. K hiu s chnh hp
lp chp k ca n phn t bi Akn .
Cng thc tnh
Akn

Trn Minh Ton ()

Xc sut thng k

(1.1)

=n .

Xc sut thng k

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Xp 5 cun sch vo 3 ngn. Hi c bao nhiu cch xp?

Gii:
Mi ln xp mt cun sch ln l tng ng vi vic chn mt trong 3 ngn cho
sch vo. Mi ngn c th c chn nhiu ln. Do s cch xp 5 cun sch vo 3
ngn l mt chnh hp lp chp 5 ca 3 phn t. Vy s cch xp l: A53 = 35 = 243.
V d 2
T 5 ch s 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 lp c bao nhiu s c 3 ch s?
Gii:
Mi s c lp nn l mt cch ly 3 ch s c th t v c th ging nhau t 5 ch
s cho. Do s cc s c 3 ch s c lp nn l: A35 = 53 = 125.

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Xc sut thng k

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Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Chnh hp

Hon v

Gii tch kt hp

nh ngha 1.2
Chnh hp chp k ca n phn t l mt nhm gm k phn t c th t v khc nhau
chn t n phn t cho (iu kin: k n). K hiu s chnh hp chp k ca n phn
t bi Akn .

nh ngha 1.3
Hon v ca n phn t l mt nhm c th t c n phn t gm mt n phn t
cho. K hiu s hon v ca n phn t bi Pn .

Cng thc tnh

Akn = n(n 1) . . . (n k + 1) =

n!
.
(n k)!

Ch 1.2
(1.2)

V d 3

Hon v l mt trng hp c bit ca chnh hp khi k = n (Pn = An

n ).
Cng thc tnh

Mt bui hp gm 10 ngi tham d, hi c my cch chn 1 ch to v 1 th k?

(1.3)

Pn = n! .

Gii:
Ta thy 2 ngi c chn lm ch to v th k l mt cp (A, B) c th t v khc
nhau c chn t 10 ngi d hp. Do s cch chn l A210 = 10.9 = 90 (cch).
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Xc sut thng k

Gii tch kt hp

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Xc sut thng k

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

Gii tch kt hp

T hp

T hp

nh ngha 1.4

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Gii tch kt hp

V d 4

T hp chp k ca n phn t (k n) l mt nhm khng phn bit th t gm k phn

t khc nhau chn t n phn t cho. K hiu s t hp chp k ca n phn t l Cnk
Cng thc tnh
Cnk =

n(n 1) . . . (n k + 1)
Akn
n!
=
=
.
k!
k!(n k)!
k!

(1.4)

Mi thi gm 3 cu hi ly trong 25 cu hi cho trc. Hi c th lp c bao nhiu

thi c ni dung khc nhau?
Gii:
25.24.23
3
S thi c th lp nn l: C25
=
= 2300.
3!
V d 5
Khai trin nh thc Newton

Ch 1.3
(a + b)n =

Qui c 0! = 1;

k=0

Cnk = Cnnk ;

Cnk ank bk = Cn0 an + Cn1 an1 b + + Cnn1 abn1 + Cnn bn ,

trong a, b R v n N.

k1
k
Cnk = Cn1
+ Cn1
.

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Xc sut thng k

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Xc sut thng k

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S kin v cc php ton

Php th v s kin

S kin v cc php ton

Php th v s kin

Php th v s kin

Php th v s kin

Mun bit ng xu ra mt no th tung ng xu ln, hnh ng tung ng xu l

mt php th.
Mun bit bn nh th no th phi thc hin bn vo bia, hnh ng bn sng
vo bia l mt php th.
...
nh ngha 2.1
Vic thc hin mt nhm cc iu kin c bn quan st mt hin tng no c
gi l mt php th. Cc kt qu c th xy ra ca php th gi l s kin.

Nh vy s kin ch c th xy ra nu ta thc hin php th.

S kin s cp: L s kin khng th phn tch c na
S kin chc chn: L s kin lun xy ra trong php th, k hiu l
S kin khng th: L s kin khng bao gi xy ra khi thc hin php th. K hiu l
.
S kin ngu nhin: L s kin c th xy ra cng c th khng xy ra khi thc hin
php th.
Php th ngu nhin: Php th m cc kt qu ca n l cc s kin ngu nhin.
thun tin, cc s kin thng c k hiu bng ch in hoa: A, B, C, . . .

V d 6

V d 7

Gieo mt con xc xc quan st s chm xut hin (y l mt php th). Cc kt

qu sau u l cc s kin:

= Gieo c mt c s chm 6 v 1 l s kin chc chn;

Xut hin mt k chm , k = 0, 1, .., 6

= Gieo c mt 7 chm l s kin khng th;

Xut hin mt chn

A = Gieo c mt chn l s kin ngu nhin.

Xut hin mt c s chm khng vt qu 2

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Xc sut thng k

S kin v cc php ton

Gieo mt con xc xc, khi

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Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

Xc sut thng k

S kin v cc php ton

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

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Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

Gi s A v B l hai s kin trong cng mt php th.

Ch 2.1

Quan h ko theo
S kin A c gi l ko theo s kin B, k hiu A B (hoc A B), nu A xy ra
th B xy ra.
Quan h tng ng
Hai s kin A v B c gi l tng ng vi nhau nu A B v B A v k hiu
l A = B.

Mi s kin ngu nhin u c th biu din di dng tng ca mt s s kin s

cp no .
S kin chc chn l tng ca mi s kin s cp c th. Do cn c gi
l khng gian cc s kin s cp.
V d 9

S kin tng
S kin C c gi l tng ca 2 s kin A v B, k hiu l C = A + B, nu C xy ra
khi v ch khi t nht mt trong 2 s kin A v B xy ra.

Tung mt con xc xc. Ta c 6 s kin s cp Ai (i = 1, 6), trong Ai l s kin xut

hin mt i chm i = 1, 2, . . . , 6.
A= Xut hin mt c s chm chn, ta suy ra A = A2 + A4 + A6
B = Xut hin mt c s chm khng vt qu 3, ta suy ra B = A1 + A2 + A3 .

V d 8
Hai ngi th sn cng bn mt con th. Nu gi A l s kin ngi th nht bn trng
con th v B l s kin ngi th 2 bn trng con th, khi C = A + B l s kin
con th b bn trng.
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A1 + A2 + + An l s kin xy ra khi c t nht mt trong n s kin xy ra

Xc sut thng k

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Khi C = A + B = A1 + A2 + A3 + A4 + A6 .

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Xc sut thng k

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S kin v cc php ton

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

S kin v cc php ton

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

S kin tch

S kin i lp

S kin C c gi l tch ca 2 s kin A v B, k hiu C = A.B (hoc AB),

nu C xy ra khi v ch khi c A v B cng xy ra.
Tch ca n s kin A1 .A2 . . . An l s kin xy ra khi c n s kin cng xy ra.

S kin i lp vi s kin A, k hiu l A, l s kin xy ra khi A khng xy ra. Ta c

V d 11
Gieo mt con xc xc mt ln, khi

V d 10
Hai ngi th sn cng bn mt con th. Nu gi A l s kin ngi th nht bn trt
con th v B l s kin ngi th 2 bn trt con th, khi C = A.B l s kin con
th khng b bn trng.

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Xc sut thng k

S kin v cc php ton

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A = Gieo c mt chn suy ra A= Gieo c mt l

A = Gieo c mt 1 chm suy ra A= Gieo khng c mt 1 chm

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Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

Xc sut thng k

S kin v cc php ton

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

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Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

Quan h v php ton ca cc s kin

S kin hiu
Hiu ca 2 s kin A v B, k hiu l A B, l s kin xy ra khi v ch khi A xy ra
nhng B khng xy ra. Thng thng ngi ta t s dng s kin hiu, m thng bin
i n thnh s kin tch nh sau: A B = A.B.
Hai s kin xung khc
Hai s kin A v B c gi l xung khc vi nhau nu chng khng ng thi xy ra
trong mt php th. A v B xung khc khi v ch khi A.B = .

Picture1.png

V d 12
Mt x th bn 1 vin n vo bia. Gi A l s kin x th bn trng vng 8 v B l
s kin x th bn trng vng 10. Khi ta thy ngay AB = tc l A, B l 2 s
kin xung khc vi nhau.

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Xc sut thng k

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Xc sut thng k

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Hnh 1: S Venn th hin cc php ton s kin

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Cc nh ngha xc sut

Xc sut ca mt s kin

Cc nh ngha xc sut

Xc sut ca mt s kin

nh ngha xc sut theo c in

nh ngha xc sut theo c in

nh ngha 3.2

Xc sut ca mt s kin l mt s nm gia 0 v 1, s ny o lng kh nng xut hin

ca s kin khi php th c thc hin. K hiu xc sut ca s kin A l P (A).

Xt mt php th c hu hn kt qu c th xy ra (c n kt qu), ng thi cc kt

qu ny l ng kh nng xut hin; trong c m kt qu thun li cho s kin A.
Khi :
m
S trng hp thun li cho A
P (A) =
=
.
(3.1)
n
S trng hp c th xy ra

Mt s tnh cht c bn

V d 13

nh ngha 3.1

Mt ngi gi in thoi nhng li qun 2 ch s cui ca s in thoi cn gi m ch

nh l 2 ch s khc nhau. Tm xc sut ngi chn ngu nhin 1 s gi th
trng s cn gi.
Gii:

0 P (A) 1;

P () = 1; P () = 0;

P (A) + P A = 1.

Gi A = Ngi chn ngu nhin 1 s gi th trng s cn gi.

S cc kt qu c th xy ra khi chn 2 ch s cui l: n = A210 = 90;

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Xc sut thng k

Cc nh ngha xc sut

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S kt qu thun li cho vic chn c ng s cn gi l m = 1;

m
1
Vy P (A) =
=
.
n
90
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Xc sut thng k
H Ni, thng 8 nm 2012

nh ngha xc sut theo c in

Cc nh ngha xc sut

nh ngha xc sut theo c in

21 / 52

nh ngha xc sut theo quan im hnh hc

nh ngha xc sut theo quan im hnh hc

V d 14
Trong hp c 4 vin bi trng v 6 vin bi cng kch c. Ly ngu nhin ng thi ra
2 vin bi. Tnh xc sut xy ra s kin:
1

A = c 2 vin bi trng;

B = c t nht 1 vin bi .

Gii:
2
S cch ly ra 2 bi t hp l n = C10
= 45.
1
2

nh ngha 3.3
Gi s tp hp v hn cc kt qu ng kh nng ca mt php th c th biu th bi
mt min hnh hc c o ( di, din tch, th tch, . . . ) hu hn khc 0, cn tp
cc kt qu thun li cho s kin A l mt min A. Khi xc sut ca s kin A c
xc nh bi:
P (A) =

6
2
=
.
45
15
Ta c B = "khng c bi no", suy ra B = A. Do
S cch ly c 2 bi trng l C42 = 6. Vy P (A) =

P (B) = 1 P (B) = 1 P (A) = 1

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Xc sut thng k

(3.2)

Khi nim ng kh nng trn c ngha l im gieo c th ri vo bt k im no

ca v xc sut n ri vo mt min con no ca t l vi o ca min y.

2
13
=
.
15
15

H Ni, thng 8 nm 2012

o ca min A
.
o ca min

22 / 52

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Xc sut thng k

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Cc nh ngha xc sut

nh ngha xc sut theo quan im hnh hc

Cc nh ngha xc sut

nh ngha xc sut theo tn sut (theo thng k)

nh ngha xc sut theo quan im hnh hc

nh ngha xc sut theo tn sut (theo thng k)

V d 15

Do tnh ng kh nng l rt kh c c trong thc t, nn cn c mt cch khc

xc nh xc sut ca mt s kin.

ng dy in thoi ngm ni mt tng i vi mt trm di 1km. Tnh xc sut

dy t cch tng i khng qu 100m.

nh ngha 3.4

Gii
R rng nu dy ng cht th kh nng b t ti mt im bt k trn dy l nh
nhau, nn tp hp cc kt qu c th xy ra c th biu th bng on thng ni tng
i vi trm di 1km. Cn s kin A := Dy b t cch tng i khng qu 100m
c biu th bng di 100m. Khi ta c
P (A) =

Xc sut thng k

Cc nh ngha xc sut

P (A) = lim fn (A) = lim

n

100
= 0.1.
1000

Trn Minh Ton ()

Gi s mt php th c th thc hin lp li nhiu ln trong nhng iu kin ging

nhau. Nu trong n ln thc hin php th trn c mln xut hin s kin A, khi t l
m
fn (A) =
c gi l tn sut xut hin ca s kin A trong n php th.
n
Cho s php th tng ln v hn, tn sut xut hin A dn ti mt gii hn xc nh,
gii hn c nh ngha l xc sut ca A:
n

m
.
n

Thc t P (A) c tnh xp x bi tn sut fn (A) vi n ln.

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nh ngha xc sut theo tn sut (theo thng k)

Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

nh ngha xc sut theo tn sut (theo thng k)

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Cng thc cng xc sut

Cng thc cng xc sut

Nu A v B l hai s kin xung khc th
(4.3)

P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) .

V d 16
xc nh xc sut ca mt ngi n ng 25 tui s b cht trong 1 nm sp ti,
ngi ta theo di 100000 nam thanh nin 25 tui v thy rng c 138 ngi cht trong
vng 1 nm sau . Vy xc sut cn tm xp x bng:

Chng minh.
Ta chng minh cho trng hp n gin l php th c n s kin ng kh nng c th
xy ra, trong c mA kh nng thun li cho s kin A v mB kh nng thun li cho
s kin B. Do A v B l 2 s kin xung khc nn AB = , do s kh nng thun li
cho s kin A + B l m = mA + mB . Do ta c

138
= 0.00138.
100000
Ch 3.1
nh ngha ny ch dng c cho cc php th ngu nhin c th lp li nhiu ln mt
cch c lp trong cc iu kin ging nhau. Ngoi ra xc nh mt cch tng i
chnh xc gi tr ca xc sut ta phi tin hnh mt s ln cc php th, m vic ny
i khi khng th thc hin c do hn ch v thi gian v kinh ph.

P (A + B) =

m
mA + mB
mA
mB
=
=
+
= P (A) + P (B).
n
n
n
n

Cng thc cng xc sut: Nu A v B l hai s kin bt k th ta c

P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB).

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Xc sut thng k

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Xc sut thng k

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(4.4)
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Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc cng xc sut

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc cng xc sut

Cng thc cng xc sut

Cng thc cng xc sut

V d 17

Cng thc cng xc sut tng qut: Cho n s kin bt k {Ai } , i = 1, n. Khi
ta c
n

P
Ai =
P (Ai )
P (Ai Aj ) +
P (Ai Aj Ak ) +
i=1

i<j

i<j<k

(1)n1 P

Ai

Gi
A: khng c ph phm trong sn phm

(4.5)

B: c ng 1 ph phm trong sn phm

C: c khng qu 1 ph phm trong sn phm

Trng hp c bit: Khi cc s kin Ai , i = 1, n xung khc tng i, tc l

Ai Aj = i = j th ta c
P (A1 + A2 + + An ) = P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) + + P (An ) .

Mt l hng gm 10 sn phm, trong c 2 ph phm. Ly ngu nhin ng thi t l

hng ra 6 sn phm. Tm xc sut c khng qu 1 ph phm trong 6 sn phm c
ly ra.

D dng thy A v B l 2 s kin xung khc v C = A + B. Ngoi ra

(4.6)

P (A) =

C86
2
=
;
6
C10
15

P (B) =

Do P (C) = P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) =

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Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

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Cng thc cng xc sut

2
8
2
+
= .
15
15
3

Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc cng xc sut

C21 C85
8
=
.
6
C10
15

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Xc sut c iu kin

Xc sut c iu kin
nh ngha 4.1

V d 18
Mt lp c 100 sinh vin, trong c 40 sinh vin gii ngoi ng, 30 sinh vin gii tin
hc, 20 sinh vin gii c ngoi ng ln tin hc. Sinh vin no gii t nht mt trong hai
mn s c thm im trong kt qu hc tp ca hc k. Chn ngu nhin mt sinh
vin trong lp. Tm xc sut sinh vin c tng im.

Xc sut xy ra s kin A vi iu kin s kin B xy ra c gi l xc sut c iu

kin B ca s kin A. K hiu l P (A|B).
V d 19
Trong hp c 5 vin bi trng v 3 vin bi en. Ly ln lt ra 2 vin bi (khng hon li).
Tm xc sut ln th hai ly c vin bi trng bit ln th nht ly c vin bi
trng.

Gii
Gi
A : sinh vin c tng im

Gii

N : sinh vin gii ngoi ng

A: ln th hai ly c vin bi trng

T : sinh vin gii tin hc

B: ln th nht ly c vin bi trng

D thy A = T + N , do
P (A) = P (T + N ) = P (T ) + P (N ) P (T N ) =
Trn Minh Ton ()

30
40
20
50
+

=
= 0.5.
100
100
100
100

Xc sut thng k

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Xc sut cn tm l P (A|B). Bit ln th nht ly c bi trng (B xy ra), khi

trong hp ch cn li 7 bi trong c 4 bi trng v 3 bi en. Do xc sut ly c bi
C1
4
trng ln th 2 (A xy ra) l: P (A|B) = 41 = .
C7
7
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Xc sut thng k

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Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Xc sut c iu kin

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Xc sut c iu kin

Xc sut c iu kin

Xc sut c iu kin

Cng thc tnh

P (A|B) =

P (AB)
.
P (B)

(4.7)

V d 20
T mt b bi t lkh 52 cy trn k rt ngu nhin ra mt cy bi. Bit l cy
en, tnh xc sut l cy t.

Chng minh.
Ta chng minh cho trng hp nh ngha xc sut theo c in. Gi s php th c n
kh nng xy ra v ng kh nng, trong mA kh nng thun li cho s kin A, mB
kh nng thun li cho s kin B, mAB kh nng thun li cho s kin AB. Ta c
mB
mAB
P (B) =
; P (AB) =
.
n
n

Gii
Gi A "rt c cy t" v B rt c cy en. Xc sut cn tnh l P (A|B).
26
1
2
Ta c P (B) =
= ; P (AB) =
, suy ra
52
2
52

Ta i tnh P (A|B). V s kin B xy ra nn s kh nng c th xy ra ch cn l

mB , trong ch c mAB kh nng thun li cho s kin A. Do ta c:
P (A|B) =

P (A|B) =

P (AB)
1
=
.
P (B)
13

P (AB)
mAB
mAB mB
=
:
=
.
mB
n
n
P (B)

Trn Minh Ton ()

Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

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Trn Minh Ton ()

Cng thc nhn xc sut

Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc nhn xc sut

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Cng thc nhn xc sut

Cng thc nhn xc sut

T cng thc xc sut c iu kin ta suy ra cng thc nhn xc sut

P (AB) = P (A).P (B|A) = P (B).P (A|B) .
Tng qut
nh ngha 4.2

Cho n s kin A1 , A2 , . . . , An . Khi xc sut tch c tnh nh sau:

Hai s kin A v B c gi l c lp vi nhau nu vic xy ra hay khng xy ra s

kin ny khng lm nh hng ti vic xy ra hay khng xy ra s kin kia. Tc l ta c:

P (A) = P (A|B) = P (A|B)

P (B) = P (B|A) = P (B|A).
Hai s kin A v B c lp vi nhau khi v ch khi
P (AB) = P (A).P (B).

P (A1 A2 . . . An ) = P (A1 ) .P (A2 |A1 ) .P (A3 |A1 A2 ) . . . P (An |A1 A2 . . . An1 ) .

nh ngha 4.3
Cc s kin A1 , A2 , . . . , An c gi l c lp (hay c lp trong tng th) nu vic
xy ra hay khng xy ra ca mt nhm bt k k s kin (1 k n) khng lm nh
hng ti vic xy ra hay khng xy ra ca cc s kin cn li.
Khi ta c: P (A1 .A2 . . . An ) = P (A1 ).P (A2 ) . . . P (An )

Ch 4.1
Nu A v B c lp th cc cp sau cng c lp: A v B ; A v B ; A v B
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Xc sut thng k

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Xc sut thng k

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Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc nhn xc sut

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc nhn xc sut

Cng thc nhn xc sut

Cng thc nhn xc sut

V d 21
C 4 que thm, trong c 3 que thm di bng nhau v 1 que thm ngn hn. Bn
ngi ln lt ln rt ngu nhin mt que thm. Tnh xc sut ngi th i rt c
thm ngn (i = 1, 2, 3, 4).
V d 22

Gii

Ba x th c lp vi nhau, mi ngi bn mt vin n vo bia vi xc sut bn trng

ca tng ngi tng ng l 0.7; 0.8 v 0.9. Tnh xc sut:

Gi Ai : Ngi th i rt c thm ngn vi i = 1, 2, 3, 4. Ta c

P (A1 )

P (A2 )

P (A3 )

P (A4 )

1
;
4

3 1
1
P A1 .P A2 |A1 = . = ;
4 3
4

3 2 1
1
P A1 A2 A3 = P A1 P A2 |A1 P A3 |A1 A2 = . . = ;
4 3 2
4
1
.
4

Vy kh nng rt c thm ngn ca 4 ngi l nh nhau v bng

Trn Minh Ton ()

Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

C ng 2 ngi bn trng;

C t nht 1 ngi bn trng.

1
.
4

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Trn Minh Ton ()

Cng thc nhn xc sut

Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc nhn xc sut

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Cng thc Bernoulli

Cng thc Bernoulli

Gii
Gi Ai : "ngi th i bn trng bia" vi i = 1, 2, 3. Theo bi ra ta c A1 , A2 , A3 c lp
v P (A1 ) = 0.7; P (A2 ) = 0.8; P (A3 ) = 0.9.
1

Gi A: "C ng hai ngi bn trng", khi

A = A1 A2 A3 + A1 A2 A3 + A1 A2 A3 . Do ba s hng trong tng i mt xung
khc v cc s kin A1 , A2 , A3 c lp nn ta c:

P (A) = P A1 A2 A3 + A1 A2 A3 + A1 A2 A3

= P A1 A2 A3 + P A1 A2 A3 + P A1 A2 A3



= P (A1 ) P (A2 ) P A3 + P (A1 ) P A2 P (A3 ) + P A1 P (A2 ) P (A3 )

= 0.7 0.8 (1 0.9) + 0.7 (1 0.8) 0.9 + (1 0.7) 0.8 0.9 = 0.398.

Gi B: C t nht 1 ngi bn trng bia suy ra B: Khng c ai bn trng. Ta

c B = A1 A2 A3 , suy ra

P (B) = 1P (B) = 1P A1 A2 A3 = 1P A1 P A2 P A3 = 10.30.20.1 = 0.994.
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Xc sut thng k

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nh ngha 4.4
(Dy php th Bernoulli) Tin hnh n php th c lp. Gi s trong mi php th ch
c th xy ra mt trong hai trng hp: hoc s kin A xy ra hoc s kin A khng
xy ra. Xc sut xy ra s kin A trong mi php th lun bng p. chnh l dy php
th Bernoulli.
Cng thc Bernoulli
Xc sut s kin A xut hin ng k ln trong n php th ca dy php th
Bernoulli l:
pn (k) = Cnk pk q nk , q = 1 p; k = 0, 1, . . . , n.

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Xc sut thng k

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(4.8)

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Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc Bernoulli

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc Bernoulli

Cng thc Bernoulli

Cng thc Bernoulli

V d 23

Chng minh.

Gieo mt ng tin 10 ln, l 10 php th Bernoulli

C Cnk cch chn k v tr trong n php th xy ra s kin A, cc php th cn li

khng xy ra A. ng vi mi cch chn c nh k v tr xy ra s kin A ta c xc sut
ca trng hp tnh nh sau:

Mt ngi bn 5 vin n, bn tng vin mt vo mc tiu. l 5 php th

Bernoulli. Nhng nu 5 ngi bn, mi ngi bn 1 vin vo mc tiu th ni
chung khng phi l php th Bernoulli.

Ti nhng php th xy ra s kin A th xc sut xy ra l p;

Gieo mt con xc xc 100 ln, A l s kin ra mt lc. l 100 php th

Bernoulli

Ti nhng php th khng xy ra s kin A th xc sut xy ra l q = 1 p

Do c k php th xy ra A v n k php th khng xy ra Ann xc sut xy ra trng

hp c k php th c nh xy ra A l pk q nk . Vy xc sut cn tnh l

Xc sut thnh cng ca mt th nghim sinh ha l 40%. Mt nhm gm 9 sinh vin

tin hnh cng th nghim trn c lp vi nhau. Tm xc sut :

pn (k) = Cnk pk q nk .

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Xc sut thng k

Mt s cng thc tnh xc sut

V d 24

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C ng 5 th nghim thnh cng

C t nht 1 th nhim thnh cng

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Cng thc Bernoulli

Xc sut thng k

Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

Cng thc Bernoulli

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Khi nim nhm y

Khi nim nhm y

nh ngha 5.1
Nhm cc s kin A1 , A2 , . . . , An (n 2) ca mt php th c gi l mt nhm y
nu tha mn 2 iu kin:

Gii

Ai Aj = , i = j;

Php th l tin hnh th nghim. A l s kin th nghim thnh cng. Ta c

A1 + A2 + + An = .

p = P (A) = 0.4; q = 1 p = 0.6; n = 9.

1

Xc sut cn tnh: p9 (6) = C96 p6 q 3 = C96 (0.4)6 (0.6)3 = 0.0743.

Gi B l s kin c t nht 1 th nghim thnh cng. Ta c B: khng c th

nghim no thnh cng. Khi

P (B) = 1 P B = 1 (0.6)9 = 0.9899.

V d 25
Xt php th gieo mt con xc xc 1 ln.
Gi Ai : Gieo c mt i chm vi i = 1, 2, . . . , 6. Ta c nhm y
{A1 , A2 , . . . , A6 }.
Gi

A: Gieo c mt chn
B: Gieo c mt 1 chm hoc 3 chm
C: Gieo c mt 5 chm
Khi {A, B, C} l mt nhm y .

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Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

Khi nim nhm y

Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

Khi nim nhm y

Cng thc xc sut y

Cng thc xc sut y

Cng thc xc sut y

Gi s A1 , A2 , . . . , An l mt nhm y cc s kin. Xt s kin H sao cho H ch
xy ra khi mt trong cc s kin A1 , A2 , . . . , An xy ra. Ni cch khc H xy ra th mt
s kin Ai no xy ra. Khi ta c cng thc xc sut y

Ch 5.1

i vi mt s kin A th ta c nhm y A, A

i
v B th ta c th thnh lp mt nhm y nh:
vi 2 s kin A
AB, AB, AB, A.B .

P (H) =

(5.9)

P (Ai ) .P (H|Ai ) .

i=1

Chng minh.

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Xc sut thng k

Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

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Cng thc xc sut y

Xc sut thng k

Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

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Cng thc xc sut y

Cng thc xc sut y

Cng thc xc sut y

V d 26

V d 27

Xt mt l sn phm c s lng rt ln trong s sn phm do phn xng I sn

xut chim 20%, phn xng II sn xut chim 30%, phn xng III sn xut chim
50%. Xc sut ph phm ca phn xng I l 0.001; phn xng II l 0.005; phn xng
III l 0.006. Ly ngu nhin 1 sn phm ca l hng. Tm xc sut sn phm l
ph phm.

C hai chung th. Chung th th nht c 3 th trng v 3 th nu. Chung th th

hai c 6 th trng v 4 th nu. Bt ngu nhin 2 con th t chung th nht b vo
chung th hai ri sau bt ngu nhin 1 con th t chung th hai ra. Tnh xc sut
bt c th nu t chung th hai.
Gii

Gii
Gi H: Sn phm ly ra l ph phm; Ai : Sn phm do phn xng i sn xut
i = 1, 2, 3. Ta c {A1 , A2 , A3 } l mt nhm y v
P (A1 ) = 0.2; P (A2 ) = 0.3; P (A3 ) = 0.5
P (H|A1 ) = 0.001; P (H|A2 ) = 0.005; P (H|A3 ) = 0.006.
p dng cng thc xc sut y ta c

Gi Ai : Trong 2 con th bt t chung mt c i con th nu , i = 0, 1, 2. Ta c

A0 , A1 , A2 lp thnh mt nhm y . Gi H: Bt c th nu t chung hai. Ta c
C32
1
C1C1
3
C2
1
= ; P (A1 ) = 3 2 3 = ; P (A2 ) = 32 =
2
C6
5
C6
5
C6
5
4
1
5
6
1
P (H|A0 ) =
= ; P (H|A1 ) =
; P (H|A2 ) =
= .
12
3
12
12
2
P (A0 ) =

p dng cng thc xc sut y :

P (H) = P (A1 ) .P (H|A1 ) + P (A2 ) .P (H|A2 ) + P (A3 ) .P (H|A3 )

= 0.2 0.001 + 0.3 0.005 + 0.5 0.006 = 0.0047.
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Xc sut thng k

H Ni, thng 8 nm 2012

P (H) =
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Trn Minh Ton ()

i=0

P (Ai ) P (H|Ai ) =

1 1
3 5
1 1
5
. + .
+ . =
.
5 3
5 12
5 2
12

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Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

Cng thc Bayes

Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

Cng thc Bayes

Cng thc Bayes

Cng thc Bayes

Trong cng thc xc sut y , H l s kin kt qu, cn cc s kin

Ai i = 1, n l cc s kin nguyn nhn. Nu bit nguyn nhn no xy ra th ta
xc nh c xc sut xy ra H.
By gi ngc li, ngi ta bit c kt qu xy ra H, mun tnh xc sut
nguyn nhn th i xy ra l bao nhiu, tc l i tnh P (Ai |H). P (Ai ) c gi l
xc sut tin nghim, cn P (Ai |H) c gi l xc sut hu nghim.
Ta c cng thc Bayes:

Chng minh.
Theo cng thc xc sut c iu kin ta c:
P (Ai |H) =

P (Ai H)
P (Ai ).P (H|Ai )
=
.
P (H)
P (H)

Mt khc theo cng thc xc sut y : P (H) =

P (Aj ).P (H|Aj ). Thay vo cng

j=1

P (Ai )P (H|Ai )
P (Ai |H) = n
, i = 1, 2, . . . , n.
j=1 P (Aj ).P (H|Aj )

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Xc sut thng k

Cng thc xc sut y v cng thc Bayes

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Cng thc Bayes

Cng thc Bayes

V d 28
Mt nh my sn xut bng n c t l bng n tt l 90%. Trc khi xut ra th
trng, mi bng n u c qua kim tra cht lng. V s kim tra khng tuyt i
hon ton nn mt bng n tt c xc sut 0.9 c cng nhn l tt, cn mt bng
n hng c xc sut 0.95 b loi b.
1

Tnh t l bng qua c kim tra cht lng.

Tnh t l bng hng qua c kim tra cht lng.

Gii
Gi A: Bng n thuc loi tt; B: Bng n thuc loi hng. Ta c A, B l mt
nhm y v P (A) = 0.9; P (B) = 0.1. Gi H: "Bng qua c kim tra cht
lng", ta c P (H|A) = 0.9; P (H|B) = 0.05.
1

Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c

P (H) = P (A).P (H|A) + P (B).P (H|B) = 0.9 0.9 + 0.1 0.05 = 0.815.

Ta c P (B|H) =
Trn Minh Ton ()

P (B).P (H|B)
0.1 0.05
=
= 0.0061.
P (H)
0.815
Xc sut thng k

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thc trn ta c pcm.

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