13.

Absolute
deviation
3
7
10
20
40
20
35
55

Month Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE

1
140
137
-3
-3
2
140
133
-7
-10
3
140
150
10
0
4
140
160
20
20
5
140
180
40
60
6
150
170
20
80
7
150
185
35
115
8
150
205
55
170

Sum of Absolute
deviations
3
10
20
40
80
100
135
190

MAD
3.00
5.00
6.67
10.00
16.00
16.67
19.29
23.75

8
6
TS

4
2
0
-2

-4
Period

a. For month 8, the MAD is 23.75

b. The tracking signal for month 8 is 7.16
c. The tracking signal is too large, so the forecast should be considered poor.

TS
-1.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
3.75
4.80
5.96
7.16

14.

a - c.
Exponential
Month Demand smoothing
1
31
31.00
2
34
31.00
3
33
31.90
4
35
32.23
5
37
33.06
6
36
34.24
7
38
34.77
8
40
35.74
9
40
37.02
10
41
37.91
MAD

Absolute
deviation
3.00
1.10
2.77
3.94
1.76
3.23
4.26
2.98
3.09
2.90

Tt
1.00
1.00
1.18
1.11
1.14
1.24
1.11
1.10
1.17
1.11

Ft
30.00
31.00
32.60
33.55
34.76
36.23
37.03
38.10
39.43
40.42

FITt
31.00
32.00
33.78
34.66
35.90
37.47
38.14
39.19
40.60
41.54

Absolute
deviation
2.00
0.78
0.34
1.10
1.47
0.14
0.81
0.60
0.54
0.86

Based upon the MAD of each forecast, the exponential smoothing with trend is the better
forecasting model.

20.
Absolut
Absolut
e
e
Month
3-mo. deviatio 3-mo deviatio
(t) Demand MA
n
WMA
n

Ft

Absolut
e
deviatio
n

Tt

Ft

FITt

Absolut
e
deviatio
n

62

61.00

1.80

60.00

61.80

65

61.30

1.82

61.86

63.68

67

62.41

1.94

64.07

66.01

68

64.67

3.33

65.40

2.60

63.79

4.21

2.03

66.31

68.33

0.33

71

66.67

4.33

67.10

3.90

65.05

5.95

2.00

68.23

70.23

0.77

73

68.67

4.33

69.30

3.70

66.84

6.16

2.07

70.46

72.53

0.47

76

70.67

5.33

71.40

4.60

68.68

7.32

2.11

72.67

74.78

1.22

78

73.33

4.67

74.10

3.90

70.88

7.12

2.22

75.14

77.36

0.64

78

75.67

2.33

76.40

1.60

73.02

4.98

2.28

77.55

79.83

1.83

10

80

77.33

2.67

77.60

2.40

74.51

5.49

2.11

79.28

81.39

1.39

11

84

78.67

5.33

79.00

5.00

76.16

7.84

1.99

80.98

82.96

1.04

12

85

80.67

4.33

81.60

3.40

78.51

6.49

2.08

83.27

85.35

0.35

MAD

4.07

3.46

6.17

Based upon MAD, the exponential smoothing with trend component appears to be the best method.

0.89