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PL/ GEWALT DURCH NICHTSTAATLICHE AKTEURE : BRGERKRIEGE

UND TERRORISMUS
PL : COLLIER_2003
Distant history and ethnic tensions are rarely the best explanations
for a conflitct. Better look at a nations recent past and, most important, its
economic conditions.
Reaching a per capita income rivalling that of the worlds richest
nations, the risk of civil war is negligible. 900 million people live in such
societies.
Potential for conflict is concentrated among the countries
inhabited by the worlds remaining 1.1 billion people. Poor and declining
economies and rely on natural resources. Number Increase after the
dissolution of major colonial empires.
Every year that their economic conditions persist increases the
odds that their societies will fall into armed conflict.
Need of identification of the real factors of conflicts.
THE MYTH OF ETHNIC STRIFE
52 major civil wars btw. 1960 and 1999 for which some factors
have been identified. Anke Hoeffler and author studied 5-years period and
identified pre-existing conditions to the outbreak of the war.
Ex: income inequality and ethnic religious come frequently. But
surprinsingly income inequality does not appear to increase systematically
the risk of civil war. Ethnic and religious diversity reduces the risk of civil
conflict. EXCEPTION: Where the largest ethnic group constitutes a majority
but lives alongside a substantial minority Risk x2. Tend to last longer if
there are two or three dominant ethnic groups.

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