.

2013 35~40GW (
10~20% ), 2014 42~50GW .

, ,
2013
2013
2013

7GW ( 3 )
6~9GW ( 10GW )
4~5GW ( 30% )

: New Energy Finance , EPIA (13)


, , TOP3 50%

[: SNE Research, 2013]

 ( )

.
-2011, 2012 EU .

[2011 EU (EPIA, 2012)

[2012 EU (EPIA, 2013)

 ,
.
- 2012 5% .(IEA)
*(5.7%), (5.5%), , , 3%

(:%, IEA, 2013)

7


()
.



, ,
(CTM Loss ),

Canadian Solar ( : Canadian Solar annual report)

 .
2013
=> , .

, ,

( : /kg)

19

0.9

0.859

0.842

0.667

0.686

0.8

18.5

18.34

0.7

18

18

17.88

0.844

0.84

0.723

0.709

0.873

0.707

0.6

17.5

(:

/)

17

0.5

16.95
16.64

16.5

0.4

16
15.5

0.2

15

0.1

14.5

0.404

0.405

0.365

0.3

0.387

0.383

: PV INSIGHTS

11

11

: PV INSIGHTS
, ,

(:
/W)

(:
/W)

 2011~2013
2014 2014
.

[SNE Research, 2013]

 , ,
- () ,

(13 2 )
12

(13 4), ,

( 2013 9) , ,

(, )

 2013

First Solar() : 1, 2 1
Sun power() : 2 3,100
Canadian Solar() : 1, 2 3 .
(12 1 4,200 )

- () : 300MW (12 2) 934MW (13 1)
Yingli() : 719MW (1) 889MW (2)
JA Solar() : 254MW (1) 464MW(2)

2013 ( : )

( : )
2010

2011

2012

2013 1Q

2013 2Q

First Solar

2,564

746

2,766

434

3,369

439

755

61

519

39

Yingli

1,896

421

2,332

-428

1,828

-405

431

-52

550

-21

JA Solar

1,784

300

1,705

-66

1,078

-231

273

-13.9

258

-5.4

Canadian Solar

1,495

120

1,898

1,294

-142

264

18

380

12

1,145

179

1,019

-174

590

-189

179

-20.6

193

-19.9

Trina

1,857

417

2,047

30

1,296

-264

260

-40

440

-24

SunPower

2,219

138

2,374

-534

2,417

-287

635

-23

576

31

HanWha
SolarOne

( : )

 , .
.
- (->) 12
- (EU->) ( )
*EU 13 8 7GW, 0.56/W
- (-> 4) , , ,
- (->EU) , EU,
( )

12.3%

OCI

REC Solar

57%

2.4%

REC Advanced Silicon

57%

2.8%

Hemlock

KCC, KAM

48.7%

48.7%

12.3%

()

MEMC

53.3%
53.7%

AE Polysilicon

57%

57%

. (13 7)
( 14 1 20 )


,
- ()
-( ) FIT 60%
. EU
WTO WTO
- ( ) EU 10%
* EU
- () , 12%
- () , , ()


1. 13 35~40GW

2.
,
3. ,,
4.
.
.
5.
6.
7. ,

8.

 2012
(FIT ) , ,

10kW

10MW

2009. 7. 1

43.01/kWh

31.94/kWh

2013.7. 1

15.07/kWh

10.44/kWh

( , 2013)

- 7.5GW(11), 7.6GW(12), 2.9~3.3GW(13), 2.5~3.5GW(14),
2.5~3.5GW(15)
-
( )
- 13 ESS( )

* 5 (4kW 16,000 )

 FIT
2013 7~9GW 13
( 8~10GW )

10kW

10kW

36/kWh + (5%)
= 37.8/kWh

38kWh()

20

10

2013 4 ~ 2014 3 FIT ( : RTS, 2013)

( : New Energy Finance)


2013 6.3~9.3GW
( )
2014 9.9~10.9GW
2015 20GW~ 35GW

- ,

( : New Energy Finance)

 13 4~5GW
( ) (, )
( )

RPS : 30 RPS( ) .
RPS
() : 2020 33%

: 30%
:

() , JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Google, Apple

(Solar Lease) :

 30%
() . ,

, , , 2
(MW)

(MW)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

California

256

538

941

1,322

1,586

1,697

Arizona

64

288

420

481

491

558

Nevada

68

19

212

255

282

311

New Mexico

41

122

63

109

125

121

Colorado

62

76

93

135

156

159

New Jersey

132

306

391

192

197

179

Pennsylvania

47

78

21

24

32

35

Maryland

24

40

79

103

138

Massachusetts

20

36

88

143

179

179

New York

22

68

44

118

156

204

North Carolina

29

46

57

60

93

100

Texas

26

51

72

88

117

132

Florida

35

22

26

58

43

46


: JNNSM(Jawa harlal Nehru National Solar Mission)
1

(2010~13)

(2013~17)

(2017~22)

1,100MW

4,000MW

20,000MW

200MW

1,000MW

2,000MW

700 m2

1500 m2

2,000 m2

(JNNSM) (KOTRA, 2010)

() : RPO(Renewable Purchase Obligation)

RPO SPO ( )

 2022 22~23GW (KPMG)

(KPMG, 2011)

, (13~15%),
, ,


: 80%(10) 53%(12) 39%(13)

(HIS, 2013)

, , ,
( , , UAE), (, ),
(, , ), (, , ), (,
) , (), ()

VS ( : )

 , , ,


2013
(GW)

Yingli

3.2~3.3

(40%),(25%)
, (17%),

96MW

,

(37%),(20%) ,
Trina Solar

2.0~2.1

,(17%),(9%), , ,
(7%), (6%)

( : )

2013
(GW)

JA Solar

1.7~1.9

Canadian
1.6~1.8
Solar
HanWha
1.3~1.5
SolarOne

(30~40%),
(20%), (20%),

, OEM

35MW

, ,

(60~70%),

(30~40%)

50%

,,,

33%, 21%
2 20%

(40%), ,
Jinko Solar

1.2~1.5

, ,

, ,

115MW

100~150MW
15%

( : )

2012 2013

[: SNE Research, 2013]

 08~11
2012~2013

(70,000MT)

57,800MT
60,000MT
36,200MT

57,000MT

16,500MT
5,000MT

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2,890MW 2,690MW
2,420MW
1,270MW
430MW

2008

535MW

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2013

 2012~2013 ,

2,040MW
(1,800MW)
1,775MW
1,180MW

1,580MW

726MW
146MW

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

3,154MW
2,857MW
1,860MW

(3,053MW)
2,783MW

910MW
300MW

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2013



, ,
, B2C ,
- : ,

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
36



: 300MW (12 3 )
40MW (13 6 )
2012 1 1/10

2013 2014
- .


,



38

 ,
, ,
.

Power
Plant

Factory
Smart
grid

Wind

PV

ESS

Home

39

Building

(Source : SNE Research, 2012.11)

 LCD CIGS
,

SDI

Sputtering

2015

LG

Co-Evaporation

600X1200mm
Pilot line

Electric deposition

roll to roll

GS

, , Flexible

41

 FIT () : 2011 . 500MW FIT

RPS ( ) :
RPS (2012~2015)
- (13) 8 1,200MW 1,500MW
(

2012

2013

2014

2015

()

276

723

1,156

1,577

(MW)

220

330

480(330)

470(320)

1500MW
() : 40%
13 ( 1,150/kW, 1,380/kW)
: 1000m

:

 2008 RPS 2012

2013

(, 2013, MW)


50%
14%
(:
GW)

()
[. (IHS, 2013)]
45

 2015 (Grid-Parity)
- , , , LCOE

,

-


IEA() 2030 5%,
2050 11%

[] (2010)
47




-
.


- ,

,

- ,

- ,



- ,


,
.

First Mover

( : , 2013)
49

Grid Parity




, ,


20 8%
, 15 1,000
730

2012

1020

2015

2020

1330

.

52

 2020
, , 2020

2013 $1.52/W, 2020 $1.19/W

2013 $2.75/W, 2020 $1.88/W
5 $0.6/W ,
$0.6/W .
: New Energy Finance(13)

.
-

(Mckinsey, 2012)
54

BOS( )
BOS
, BOS

:
: , ,
BOS(Balance Of System) : , , ,

55

(Mckinsey, 2012)

14

2014
2015

2015

-: KCC(), KAM()
(),
- (13 9):
-: ,
.

-,

.
-
CIGS

- ,

 2


- , 2014

,


2
2013 , 2014

, ,
,

35~40GW

 ,

2011, 2012 ,

, 2014


- ,



,
2012 30~40% 80~90%

,

 ,

,





- ,

,

- SolarCity ,

2 ( )

,

- ,

2013
2014

62

 ,

( )
( )
, ( )

[ (, )]

 (ESS), , , ,


EU ( 7GW)

- 80% 60%
.

,
, .

-


,
.

66

1.
-
2. 80%, 90%

3.

4. 2

5. , ,
, ,
,

LOGO