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Baigiangphantich & Dautuchungkhoan PDF
Baigiangphantich & Dautuchungkhoan PDF
Mi thng tin v kho hc xin vui lng truy cp trang web: www.ifs.edu.vn
CHUYN
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p NG
C
NGNH D
DC
q NG
NGNH SX H
HNG TI
TIU D
DNG
r NG
NGNH TC - NH
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H S HIU QU HOT NG
H S C CU TI CHNH
H S KH NNG SINH LI
PT L C S QUAN TRNG A RA Q:
CC NH
QTDN
CH N
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PHNG HNG
HOT NG
C HIU QU
NH GI
KH NNG
TR N.
NH GI:
+ RI RO
+ TRIN VNG
NH GI TC
NG CA CC
CHNH SCH
KT V M
NH
U T
NH NC
BNG CN I K TON
BO CO KT QU HOT NG KINH DOANH
BO CO LU CHUYN TIN T
BN THUYT MINH BO CO TI CHNH
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A. TS ngn hn
Tin v CK T tin
z CK TTC ngn hn
z Khon phi thu
z Hng tn kho
zTS ngn hn khc
z
B. TS di hn
zTSC
hu hnh
z TSC v hnh
zTSC thu ti chnh
z u t ti chnh di hn
NGUN VN
A. N phi tr
z
z
N ngn hn
N di hn
B. Vn ch s hu
z
z
z
z
z
Vn u t ca CSH
Thng d vn CP
CP qu
LN sau thu cha PP
Qu TPT
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A2. BO CO KT QU HKD
(S LIU THI K )
CHI PH
LI NHUN
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LN BN HNG
LN H TC
HOT NG KHC
LN KHC
CP THU TNDN
2005
2006
2007
CH TIU
363,8
387,4
824,1
1.125,2
2. Gi vn hng bn
243,7
244,4
607,5
823,6
3. LN gp v bn hng v CCDV
120,1
143
216,6
301,6
18,3
154,9
290,3
11,9
9,4
12,8
60,5
9,8
7,6
10,9
5. Chi ph ti chnh
Trong chi ph li vay
6. Chi ph bn hng
9,5
12,1
10,7
24,2
43,6
53,1
51,3
83.8
64,2
86,6
296,8
423,4
9. Li nhun khc
(5,7)
64,8
81
8,5
13
Li ch C thiu s
13. Li nhun sau thu TNDN
14. Li c bn trn c phiu (ng)
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0,6
2,2
299
6,7
430,1
77,6
1,2
(0,03)
(0,2)
(0,1)
56,3
67,9
220,1
2.408
2.501
7.624
2004
2005
2006
2007
363,8
387,4
824,1
1.125,2
2. Gi vn hng bn
243,7
244,4
607,5
823,6
3. LN gp v bn hng v CCDV
120,1
143,0
216,6
301,6
9,5
12,1
10,7
24,2
43,6
53,1
51,3
83,8
193,6
4. Chi ph bn hng
5. Chi ph qun l doanh nghip
6. LN T HKD CHNH
T trng trong tng LN trc thu
7. Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh
8. Chi ph ti chnh
Trong chi ph li vay
9. LN T HOT NG TI CHNH
67.1
77,8
154,6
104%
96%
52%
45%
18,3
154,9
290,3
60,5
11,9
9,4
12,8
9,8
7,6
10,9
(2,90)
8,85
142,18
229,80
6,86
16,40
153,03
229,80
53%
-4%
11%
48%
0,6
(5,7)
2,2
6,7
1%
-7%
1%
2%
64,8
81,0
299,0
430,1
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2005
2006
2007
2006/2005 2007/2006
698,8
704,4
814
0,8%
15,6%
646,4
643,9
741
-0,4%
15,1%
LN GP
52,4
60,5
73
15,5%
20,7%
CP BN
HNG
6,3
7,8
-4,8%
30,0%
CP QLDN
7,9
7,7
7,9
-2,5%
2,6%
38,2
46,8
57,3
22,5%
22,4%
GV HNG
BN
LN BN HNG
Bao cao LCTT trnh bay 3 dong tin lin quan n 3 hoat ong:
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10
T VN
z
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11
LCTT T
H KINH DOANH
LCTT T
H U T
LCTT T
H TI CHNH
1.
C IM HOT NG CA CNG TY
2.
3.
4. CC CH S TI CHNH CH YU
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12
B. CC CH S TI CHNH
H S KH NNG THANH TON
H S HIU QU HOT NG
H S C CU TI CHNH
H S KH NNG SINH LI
KHT =
Ti sn ngn hn
N ngn hn
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13
Kn =
N ngn hn
Tin + CK kh mi + CFO
=
N ngn hn
31/12/2007
31/12/2006
HS KN TT HIEN
HANH
4,1
2,7
HS KN TT NHANH
4,0
2,4
31/12/2005
31/12/2004
31/12/2003
1,6
1,6
1,8
1,1
1,0
1,1
NG
NGY 3030-9-2007 U
U T
T TI CH
CHNH NG
NGN H
HN CHI
CHIM 86.3% TRONG
TNG TSNH (1.093/1,266 T
T )
NG
NGY 3131-1212-2007 U
U T
T TI CH
CHNH NG
NGN H
HN CHI
CHIM 55.97%
TRONG T
TNG TSNH (627.2/1120.6 T
T )
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14
LU :
2.1. K THU TIN BNH QUN VNG QUAY KHON PHI THU
K thu tin BQ
=
(ngy)
CK phi thu BQ *
Doanh thu thun
x 360
GHI CH:
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
15
Gi vn hng bn
x 360
Gi vn hng bn
Tn kho BQ
Vng quay
TSC
DTT
=
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DTT
Tng ti sn BQ
16
2006
2005
2004
2003
64
55
74
58
16
SN LC HANG TK (ngay)
70
162
116
47
10,3
7,79
8,07
8,04
0,57
0,7
0,57
0,72
B3. H S V C CU VN
HS N =
TNG N
TNG VN
HS T TI TR =
VCSH
TNG VN
HS N TRN VCSH =
N (D)
VCSH (E)
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17
31-12-2007
31/12/2006
31/12/2005
31/12/2004
31/12/2003
376
336
321
212
192
TNG NV
2.560
1.407
883
520
479
HS N
0,146
0,23
0,36
0,41
0,4
N PHI TR
B3. H S V C CU VN
HS KH NNG THANH TON LI VAY
LN HOT NG *
HS m bo li vay =
LI VAY
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18
SO SNH H S LI GP
CNG TY
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CT LI
2006
2007
0,085
0,0896
DU TNG AN (TAC)
0,09
0,92
PETROLIMEX (PGC)
0,11
REE
0,22
0,37
DC HU GIANG (DHG)
0,54
0,474
DC NG THP
0,526
0,192
0,3
19
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20
GVHB
EAT
HS LN
GP
ABT
331,2
273
25,1
18%
7,6%
AGF
1190,9
1047,1
46,6
12%
3,9%
TS1
147,9
134,5
5,7
9%
3,9%
TS4
151,8
131,5
6,1
13%
4,0%
MPC
1352,5
1207,7
77,1
11%
5,7%
FMC
925,2
846,1
31,58
9%
3,4%
11
4,7
M CK
BQ NGNH
ROS
GVHB
EAT
HS LN
GP
ROS
ABT
293
241
30,2
17,7%
10,3%
77
ACL
379
306
41,7
19,3%
11,0%
75
AGF
869
751
38,2
13,6%
4,4%
68
SJ1
107
96
4,2
10,3%
3,9%
38
TS4
127
113
4,7
11,0%
3,7%
29,4
MPC
2.453
2.330
100,3
5,0%
4,1%
48
FMC
718
663
16,7
7,7%
2,3%
48
VHC
1.296
1.129
100,1
12,9%
7,7%
49
10%
5,4%
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Gi
CK
(1-2-08)
21
HS LNR TRN TS
(ROA)
ROA
IU CHNH
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Tng ti sn BQ
EAT + I (1 - T L THU)
Tng ti sn BQ
22
LN SAU THU
DTT
DTT
Tng ti sn BQ
(2)
(1)
ROE =
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23
ROE =
LN rng
DTT
DTT
Tng ti sn BQ
x
Tng ti sn BQ
(2)
(1)
Vn CSH BQ
(3)
ROE = ROA x
1 - T s n
T s n =
N phi tr
Tng ngun vn
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24
N BY TC V RI RO TC
z
RI RO T
TI CH
CHNH L
L RI RO BI
BIN NG
NG L
LI NHU
NHUN TR
TRN
VN C
C PH
PHN KT H
HP V
VI R
RI RO MT KH
KH NNG CHI
TR
TR PH
PHT SINH DO C
CNG TY S
S DNG N B
BY T
TI
CH
CHNH
S DNG N B
BY T
TI CH
CHNH == > CHI PH
PH TI CH
CHNH C
C
NH
NH GIA T
TNG == > X
XC SU
SUT M
MT KH
KH NNG CHI TR
TR
DI H
HN T
TNG == > GIA T
TNG R
RI RO
V D - NH GI KH NNG SINH LI
CNG TY DHG
TT
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CH TIEU
ROA
EAT/DTT
DTT/TONG TS
ROE
EAT/DTT
6
7
2007
2006
2005
(+;-)06/05 (+;-)07/06
17,8% 22,45%
21,68%
+ 0.8%
10,02% 10,02%
10,00%
0,02%
1,78
2,24
2,17
0,07
31,9%
57,7%
48,8%
+8.92%
10,02%
10,0%
10,0%
0,02%
DTT/TONG TS
1,78
2,24
2,17
7,17
TONG TS /VON
CSH (1/1-ty so n)
1,79
2,57
2,25
+ 0,32
25
2006
ROE
ROA
2005
ROE
ROA
ACB
2,7%
35,6%
1,47% 34,4%
STB
2,3%
18,3%
2,4% 19,7%
EAT 2007
TNG TS BQ 2007
VN CSH BQ 2007
ROE
1,5%
ROA 2007
30%
ROE 2007
ACB
1.769,5
66.012
4.970,5
2,7%
35,6%
STB
1.280
56.536,5
6.989
2,3%
18,3%
Li nhun rng - C tc u i
EPS =
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26
4. HS V KH NNG SINH LI
4.10. H S CHI TR C TC
HS CHI TR C TC =
4.11. MC SINH LI C TC
MC SINH LI C TC =
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27
g =
RR * ROE
Trong :
g - T l tng trng tim nng
RR - T l thu nhp gi li
RR = 1 -
CHUYN
THI GI TIN T
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28
NOI DUNG
z
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29
Tng lai luc nao cung bao ham mot y niem khong chac chan.
V the mot ong tien nhan trong tng lai khong the cung gia
tr vi mot ong nhan c ngay hom nay
z
z
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30
2. LAI SUAT
Ngi
cho vay
KY HIEU C BAN
Ngi i
vay
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31
Si = P0 * (r) * (s)
V DU 1:
Ban gi 100 trieu vao tai khoan tiet kiem tra lai
n 6%/nam. Vao cuoi nam th nam ban se nhan
c so lai tch luy la:
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32
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33
re = (1 +
r m2
) - 1
m1
- re : LS hieu dung
- m2: So thi oan ghep lai trong thi oan tnh LS hieu dung
a.
V DU 2:
Giai:
= 10,25%
= 10,38%
Ghep
thang.
lai
hang
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34
b.
V DU 3:
Tnh LS hieu dung cua
mot khoan vay vi LS
10%/nam. Ghep lai
hang thang
Giai:
(1) LS HD 6 thang:
re = (1 + 10%/12)6 - 1 =
(2) LS HD quy:
re = (1 + 10%/12)3 - 1 =
Hoi:
(1) LS HD 6 thang
(2) LS HD mot quy
(3) LS HD mot thang
(3) LS HD thang:
re = (1 + 10%/12)1 - 1 =
Giai:
= 6%/6 thang
= (1 + 0,06)2
r2 =
(1 + r1)m
-1
= 12,36%/nam
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35
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
36
bao gom cac khoan bang nhau xay ra qua mot so thi ky
nhat nh
Lai
suat
Dong tien te
0
Dong tien eu
0
Dong tien hon tap
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r%
CF
CF
CF
CF
100
100
100
100
r% 1
100
200
500
4
300
37
Thi iem
CF
T=1
FV1 = CF (1+r)n-1
CF
T=2
FV2 = CF (1+r)n-2
CF
T=3
FV3 = CF (1+r)n-3
CF
T=n1
CF
T=n
FVn-n = CF (1+r)n-n
= CF (1+r)0
Gia tr tng lai cua dong nien kim chnh la tong gia tr tng lai cua
tng khoan tien CF xay ra tng thi iem khac nhau.
FVAn = CF (1 + r )n t ky
t =1
n: So lng ky han
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38
V DU 5:
Ban cho thue nha vi gia 20 trieu ong/nm va gi tat ca tien
thu c cuoi nam vao tai khoan tiet kiem hng lai
10%/nm. Ban se nhan c bao nhieu vao cuoi nam th ba
sau khi gi?
z Tra bang:
FVA3 = CF(FVFAr,n) = 20(FVFA10,3) = 20(3,310) = 66,2 tr.
z S dung may tnh tai chnh:
PMT = - 20, n = 3, r% = 10 => FV = 66,2 tr.
z
S dung Excel:
Chon fx, financial, FV, OK, rate = 0.1, nper = 3, pmt = - 20, cuoi
cung chon OK
So
tien
CF
thi iem T
T=1
PV0 = CF/(1+r)1
CF
T=2
PV0 = CF/(1+r)2
CF
T=3
PV0 = CF/(1+r)3
CF
CF
T=n1
PV0 = CF/(1+r)n 1
CF
T=n
PV0 = CF/(1+r)n
Hien gia cua dong nien kim bang tong hien gia cua
tng khoan tien tng thi iem khac nhau.
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39
1
1
n
PVAn = CF 1 /(1 + r )t = CF
n
t =1
r r(1 + r )
Cach xac nh:
PVAn = CF(PVFAr,n)
z Phng phap so hoc
z Tra bang
z S dung may tnh
TC
S dung Excel
V du 6: Gia s ban hoach nh rut 20 tr. vao cuoi moi nam trong thi
ky 3 nam t tai khoan tiet kiem tra lai 10%/nm. Ban phai ky gi bao
nhieu vao tai khoan cua ban hien tai?
Tra bang
PVA3 = CF(PVFAr,n) = 20(PVFA10,3) = 20(2,487) = 49,74
S dung Excel
Chon fx, financial, PV, OK va anh vao rate = 0.1,
nper = 3, pmt = 20, cuoi cung chon OK
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40
= CF(PVFAr,n-1) + CF
= CF(PVFAr,n-1 + 1)
= CF(PVFAr,n)(1+ r)
V DU 7: Gia s ban cho thue nha vi gia 20 trieu ong mot nam va
ky gi toan bo tien nhan c au moi nam vao tai khoan tien gi
tiet kiem ghp lai hang nam 10%. Hoi ban se co bao nhieu tien vao
cuoi nam th ba?
Phng phap so hoc
FVA3 = 20(1+0,1) + 20(1+0,1)2 + 20(1+0,1)3
= 72,82 tr.
Tra bang
FVA3 = CF(FVFAr,n)(1+r) = 20(FVFA10,3)(1+0,1) = 20(3,10)(1,1)
= 72,82 tr.
S dung may tnh tai chnh
BGN, PMT = - 20, n = 3, r% = 10 =>
FV = 72,82 tr.
S dung Excel
Chon fx, financial, FV, chon OK, anh vao rate = 0.1, nper = 3, pmt
= - 20, type = 1 cuoi cung chon OK
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41
au nam trong vong 3 nam ti t tai khoan tiet kiem tra LS 10%/nam.
Hien tai bay gi ban phai ky gi bao nhieu vao tai khoan e co the
rut so tien nh hoach nh?
1
1
n
t =1
r r(1 + r)
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1
1 CF
PVA = CF
=
+
r
r
(
1
r
)
n kim vnh cu rc ng dung e nh
Hien gia dong nie
gia co phieu u ai.
42
Hien gia:
CF (PVF )
PVMn =
r ,n
t =1
V DU 9: Gia s ban cho thue nha thi han 5 nam vi lch thanh toan nh
sau: 6.000.000 ng cho 2 nam au tien, 5.000.000 cho 2 nam tiep theo
va 4.000.000 cho nam cuoi cung. Gia tr tng lai thu nhap cua ban
nam th 5 la bao nhieu neu ban em toan bo so tien thu c gi NH vi
LS la 6% (ghp li hng nm)?
z
FV5
FV5
FV5
FV5
FV5
z
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= 6000 (FVF6%,4)
= 6.000 (FVF6%,3)
= 5.000 (FVF6%,2)
= 5.000 (FVF6%,1)
= 4.000 (FVF6%,0)
= 6.000
= 6.000
= 5.000
= 5.000
= 4.000
(1,2625)
(1,1910)
(1,1236)
(1,0600)
(1,0000)
=
=
=
=
=
7.575
7.146
5.618
5.300
4.000
43
V DU 10: Gia s ban cho thue nha trong thi han 5 nam vi lch
thanh toan nh sau: 6.000.000 2 nam au tien, 5.000.000 cho 2 nam
tiep theo va 4.000.000 cho nam cuoi. Hien gia thu nhap cua ban la
bao nhieu nu suat chiet khau la 6%?
PV0 = 6000
PV0 = 5000
PV0 = 5000
PV0 = 4000
= 5.340
= 4.200
= 3.960
= 2.988
= 22.146
(PVF6%,2)
(PVF6%,3)
(PVF6%,4)
(PVF6%,5)
S dung Excel
=
=
=
=
6000 (0,890)
5000 (0,840)
5000 (0,792)
4000 (0,747)
Tong cong
5.658
Chon fx, financial, NPV, anh vao rate = 0.06 dung chuot to
en e la chon dong tien te, chon OK
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44
Mc khau hao
thue suat
thue TNDN
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45
NPV =
LA CHON D AN AU T:
y NPV > 0: chap nhan d an.
y NPV = 0: co the au t.
y NPV < 0: loai bo d an.
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46
Doanh nghiep BB co ke hoach mua mot day chuyen san xuat san pham
X vi gia 50.000 USD, co thi gian s dung la 10 nam va gia tr thanh
ly bang 0. D bao day chuyen nay se em lai khoan thu nhap hang
nam la 10.250 USD. Neu suat chiet khau c can c vao suat sinh li
mong muon cua chu s hu 15%/nam th doanh nghiep co nen au t
hay khong?
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47
CHUYN
LI NHUN V RI RO
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48
R = (1 + R1 )(1 + R2 )....(1 + Rt ) 1
4. Thong ke mc sinh li ( Mc sinh li bnh quan
so hoc):
R=
( R1 + .... + Rn)
t
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Rui ro he thong
Rui ro khong he thong
49
CHUYN
NH GI C PHIU
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50
Muc ch nh gia
z
z
z
z
z
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51
CC PHNG PHP NH GI
Phng php nh gi theo ti sn
(Asset Valuation).
z Phng php nh gi da vo cc ch
s th trng ( Market Ratio Valuation )
z Phng php chit khu dng tin
(Discount Cash Flow Model )
z
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52
Ti sn l hin vt
Ti sn bng tin gm tin mt, tin gi v cc giy t c
gi (tn phiu, tri phiu,...).
Cc khon n phi thu
Cc khon chi ph d dang
Gi tr ti sn k cc, k qu ngn hn v di hn.
Gi tr ti sn v hnh
Gi tr vn u t di hn ca doanh nghip ti cc
doanh nghip khc.
Gi tr li th kinh doanh
Gi tr quyn s dng t.
z
z
z
z
z
z
z
Cc chun mc k ton
nghi nhn ti sn v hnh.
xc nh ngun lc v hnh tha mn nh
ngha TSC v hnh cn phi xem xt cc yu
t:
z
z
z
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Tnh c th xc nh c
Li ch kinh t trong tng lai
Kh nng kim sot
53
Xc nh gi tr li th kinh doanh
(Theo Ngh nh 187)
z
Xc nh gi tr li th kinh doanh
( Theo Ngh nh 187 )
Gi tr
li th
kinh
doanh
ca
doanh
nghip
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
Gi tr
phn
vn nh
nc
theo s k
ton ti
thi im
nh gi
T sut
li nhun
sau thu
trn vn nh
nc bnh qun
3 nm trc
thi im
xc nh
gi tr
doanh
nghip
Li sut
tri phiu
Chnh ph
c k hn 10
nm tr ln
ti thi im
gn nht vi
thi im
xc nh
gi tr
Doanh
nghip
54
Nguyn tc chung
Nguyn tc c bn ca ti chnh l gi tr ng n
hp l ca mt ti sn chnh bng gi tr hin ti ca
dng tin m ngi s hu ti sn k vng nhn
c trong sut i sng ca ti sn
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
CF1
CF2
CFn
CFt
+
+
...
+
=
(1+ ke)1 (1+ ke)2
(1+ ke)n t =1 (1+ ke)t
55
Cc thng s u vo
ca m hnh DCF
z
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
56
P (1 + k )
0
Dt
e
Dt : Co tc nam t
t =1
PT : Gia ban co phieu vao thi iem cuoi nam T.
PT
(1 + ke )T
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57
M hnh GorDon
Mo hnh nay gia nh nha au t se nam gi co phieu trong thi
gian rat dai. Theo ly thuyet la vo han.
Dong co tc tang trng eu qua cac nam va co toc o tang
trng la g ( vi g < ke )
P0 =
D0 (1 + g)1
1
(1 + ke )
D0 (1 + g)2
2
(1 + ke )
+ ... +
D0 (1 + g)
(1 + ke )
D1
ke g
Sale
Stage 2
Expansion
Stage 1
Pioneering
Stage 3
Stabilization
Decline
Life Time
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
58
gs
Giai oan 1
Giai oan 2
Ng
Giai oan 3
Nd
Thi gian
V1 =
t =1
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
D 0 . (1 + g ) t
(1 + k e ) t
59
V2 =
t = Ng
Dt
+ 1
(1 + k e ) t
(1 + k e )
Ng
D
V3 =
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
.1 + g
ke g s
(1 + k e ) N d
60
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
61
R j = R f + ( Rm R f ) j
Rj : La t suat LN yeu cau( hay chi ph von co phan )
Rf : Lai suat khong rui ro.
Rm : T suat li nhuan cua th trng.
j: He so be ta cua chng khoan.
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62
P0 =
(1 + k
FCFE
t =1
t
t
e)
P0 =
t =1
9
9
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
FCFFt
(1 + k e ) t
63
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
64
Payout .ratio (1 + g )
P/E =
Ke g
P/B =
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
65
P/ S =
CHUYN
NH GI TRI PHIU
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66
(1 + r )
t =1
Trong o :
P : gia TP
n : so nam con lai cho en khi ao han
C: lai coupon
r : lai suat chiet khau
F : menh gia
F
(1 + r )n
1 (1 + r ) n
n
P = C
+ F (1 + r )
r
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
67
C 1 (1 + r / 2) 2 n
2 n
P=
+ F (1 + r / 2)
2
r/2
P =
F
(1 + r ) n
V du :
Mot loai TP co thi han ao han la 20 nam nhng khong tra lai nh
ky ma ch tra von goc la 1.000.000 vao cuoi nam th 20. Neu hien
nay lai suat tren th trng la 10% th ngi mua TP phai tra bao
nhieu tien e mua TP nay?
(P=148.644)
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
68
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
V du: Gia s ta co mot TP tha noi lai suat menh gia 1 trieu c
yet lai suat bang LIBOR 6 thang cong them 25 iem c ban.
Neu LIBOR tai thi iem tai nh au tien la 8,46% th so tien tra
lai 6 thang sau se tnh c theo ty le o cong vi 25 iem c ban:
1.000.000 x 8,46% + 1.000.000 x 0,25% = 42.300 + 2.500
2
Khoan 42.300 c coi la khoan nhan c t CK tham chieu.
Khoan 2.500 nhan c t khoan phu troi.
Neu LIBOR tai thi iem tai nh th hai la 8% th khoan lai sau
o 6 thang se la:
1.000.000 x 8,0% + 1.000.000 x 0,25% = 40.000 + 2.500
2
Khoan tien lai trong moi dong tien se gom 2 phan: phan lai tha
noi la phan thay oi theo tng 6 thang mot , va phan do khoan
phu troi la khong thay oi. Khi ao han, menh gia c hoan tra
ngoai khoan tien lai.
69
Bai tap
Gia s mot nha phat hanh ong y tra cao hn lai
suat LIBOR 6 thang mot khoan la 100 iem c ban
, trong 2 nam , 6 thang tra lai mot lan. Gia s lai
suat chiet khau hien hanh cua TP 2 nam la 8,5% .
Gia cua CK nay la bao nhieu?
z Bai giai
- TP co menh gia 100USD
- Chenh lech gia cong cu tha noi va cong cu tham
chieu la 50 iem (0,5% menh gia) cho moi ky ieu
chnh lai suat (6 thang).
+6 thang
+1 nam
+1,5 nam
+2 nam
Cong cu
tham
chieu
100
LIBOR
LIBOR
LIBOR
100 + LIBOR
Cong cu
nh gia
100 + D
LIBOR +0,5
LIBOR + 0,5
LIBOR + 0,5
100 + LIBOR
+ 0,5
Chenh
lech
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5
Khoan phu troi 100 iem c ban moi nam tr thanh 50 iem c ban
(0,5%) hay 50 (n v tien te) tren 100 menh gia cho moi ky tai nh lai
suat . Dong tien cua cong cu can nh gia c nh gia chenh 0,5 vi
cong cu tham chieu cho moi ky 6 thang. V the gia cua cong cu tha noi
lai suat nay la 100 + D , trong o D chnh la gia tr hien tai cua cac
khoan thanh toan hang na nam 0,5% menh gia .
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
70
D =
0,5
+
0,5
+
0,5
+
0,5
1 + 0,0425
(1 + 0,0425)2 (1 + 0,0425)3 (1 + 0,0425)4
= 1,8
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
71
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
72
n v : nghn VN
He so chuyen oi
Gia TT cua CP
Gia tr chuyen oi
40
10
400
40
18
720
40
25
1.000=F
40
30
1.200
40
35
1.400
40
40
1.600
C
F
+
t
(1+ y)n
t =1 (1 + y )
P=
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
73
P=
t =1
C
F'
+
t
(1 + y ') (1 + y ')m
P1 P 0
CG
=
Total Yield = CY + CG
P0
Lai tren lai
Tong li tc tiem nang cua mot TP bang tong hai khoan la lai
coupon va lai cua lai , co the tnh c bang cach ap dung tnh gia
tr tng lai cua mot khoan tien te ong eu .
Lai coupon + Lai tren lai =
Cx
(1 + r )n
Tong so lai coupon c tnh bang cach nhan so ky tra lai vi lai
coupon bang nC .
Lai tren lai =
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
Cx
(1 + r )n 1 nC
r
74
Trong cong thc nh gia trai phieu tren, chung ta thay gia trai
phieu phu thuoc vao s thay oi cua cac nhan to.
z F : menh gia trai phieu
z C: so tien lai coupon
z r : lai suat chiet khau
z n : so nam con lai cho en khi ao han
Trong o 2 yeu to F va C la khong thay oi trong suot thi gian TP lu
hanh . Trong khi 2 yeu to r va n thng xuyen thay oi theo thi
gian va tnh hnh bien ong lai suat tren th trng . Neu cho 2 bien
so nay thay oi chung ta se thay c s bien ong cua gia TP:
- Gia TP thay oi nghch chieu vi s thay oi cua lai suat th trng.
- Cang gan en ngay ao han gia TP cang tien gan en menh gia.
1 (1 + 10 %) 15
15
P = 100 .000
+ 1 .000 .000 (1 + 10 %)
10 %
P = 1.000.000
z Trong trng hp nay, trai phieu c ban ung bang
menh gia.
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
75
12%
P = 863.790
z Trong trng hp nay, gia tr thc cua trai phieu
giam sut thap hn menh gia cua no.
1 (1 + 8%)15
15
P = 100.000
+ 1.000.000(1 + 8%)
8%
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
P = 1.171.150
Trong trng hp nay gia tr thc cua trai phieu a
tang len cao hn menh gia cua no.
76
z
z
P = 1.171.150
r=8%
r=10%
P = 1.000.000
P = 863.790
r=12%
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
10
15
Thi han
77
P=
C
C
C
F
+
+ ... +
+
2
n
(1 + y ) (1 + y )
(1 + y )
(1 + y ) n
Trong o:
- P: gia TP
- C: lai coupon
- y: lai suat cho ti khi ao han, hay lai suat theo yeu cau
- n: so ky tra lai
- F: gia tr hoan tra khi ao han
=
+
+ ... +
+
dy
1 + y 1 + y
(1 + y ) 2
(1 + y ) n
(1 + y ) n
1
P
1
1 + y
1C
2C
+
(1 + y )
1 + y
+ ... +
nC
(1 + y )
nF
(1 + y )
1
x
P
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
t =1
tC
nF
+
(1 + y ) t
(1 + y ) n
P
78
dP
1
=
x MD x dy
P
1+ y
1
x He so Macaulay x % thay oi lai suat x 100
1+ y
Macaulay Duration
Modified Duration =
(1+y)
Do o:
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
79
Dong tien
PVCF1
t x PVCF1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
$5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
105
0,952380
0,907029
0,863837
0,822702
0,783526
0,746215
0,710681
0,676839
0,644608
0,613913
4,761904
4,535147
4,319187
4,113512
3,917630
3,731076
3,553406
3,384196
3,223044
64,460890
Tong:
4,7619
9,0703
12,9576
16,4540
19,5882
22,3865
24,8738
27,0736
29,0074
644,6089
810,7822
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
80
oi khi nha au t cung can biet bien ong gia cua TP tnh
bang tien, ch khong ch bang ty le phan tram. Mc thay
oi gia tnh theo ola cua TP khi lai suat thay oi 100
iem c ban, c goi la Dollar Duration.
Dollar Duration = - Modified D x dy x gia
Neu biet mc % thay oi gia va mc gia ban au, ta co
the tnh c thay oi gia tnh theo ola, vi ieu kien ty
le thay oi lai suat la nho.
Lai suat tang t 9% len 9,1% (tang 10 iem c ban)
Gia giam : -1,06%
Neu tnh theo gia ban la 70,357$ th gia giam la:
Dollar Duration = - Modified D x dy x gia
= - 1,06% x 70,357 = -0,74578
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
81
CHUYN
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
82
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
83
I =
x I0
* Ch so tong hp:
+ Phng phap Laspeyres:da tren lng co phieu
ky c s (ky goc) Q xP
IL =
xP0
x I0
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
84
IP =
Q 1 xP 1
Q 1 xP 0
x I0
Trong o : Ip la ch so Paascher
Q la khoi lng ( quyen so ) thi ky bao
cao hoac c cau khoi lng thi ky bao cao .
VNIndex =
Q 1 xP 1
Q 0 xP 0
x I0
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
85
Ten co
phieu
Gia thc
hien
So lng CP
niem yet
Gia th trng
C ien
lanh
REE
16.000
15.000.000
240.000.000.000
Cap VL VT
SAM
17.000
12.000.000
204.000.000.000
Tong
444.000.000.000
Ten cong ty
Ten co
phieu
Gia thc
hien
So lng CP
niem yet
Gia th trng
C ien
lanh
REE
16.600
15.000.000
249.000.000.000
Cap VL VT
SAM
17.500
12.000.000
210.000.000.000
Tong
459.000.000.000
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
86
Ten cong ty
Ten co phieu
So lng CP
niem yet
Gia th trng
C ien lanh
REE
16.900
15.000.000
253.500.000.000
Cap VL VT
SAM
17.800
12.000.000
213.600.000.000
Giay HP
HAP
16.000
1.008.000
16.128.000.000
Transimex
TMS
14.000
2.200.000
30.800.000.000
Tong
514.028.000.000
d = 444.000.000.000 x
514.028.000.000 = 488.607.219.010
467.100.000.000
VNIndex = 514.028.000.000 x 100 = 105,2
488.607.219.010
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
87
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
88
nh
72
Xu hng
70
dao ong
68
66
64
Ban
Xu hng
gia xuong
Xu hng
gia xuong
62
60
Mua
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
ay
ay
58
56
Mua
+
T1
+
T2
+
T3
+
T4
+
T5
+
T6
+
T7
+
T8
+
T9
+
T10
+
T11
+
T12
89
1- ng xu the
z
ng xu the c hnh thanh bang cach noi cac mc gia cao nhat hoac thap nhat cua
chng khoan trong mot khoan thi gian nhat nh . Goc nghieng cua ng noi nay se
65
phan- anh xu the gia len hoac xuong. Khi gia chng khoan vt ra ngoai ng xu the ,
cac nha phan tch ky thuat cho rang mot xu the mi co the se xuat hien.
NG XU THE
n v tnh : ngan VN
60
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
iem ot pha xuat hien khi gia cua chng khoan vt qua mc can tren
(thng la cao iem trc o) hoac xuong thap hn mc can di (thng
la iem ay trc o). iem ot pha c coi la dau hieu xu the se tiep
dien.
Trong hnh ve nay, tai thi iem au thang 5 gia chng khoan vt qua ng
xu the trc o. Khi o iem A c xac nh la iem ot pha va la iem
khi au cua mot xu the mi .
60
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
n v tnh : ngan VN
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
90
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
Can di
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
91
Ngc vi can di, can tren la mc gia ma tai o ngi phan tch
ky thuat cho rang ngi au t se lien tuc ban ra. Ho cung cho
rang khi gia chng khoan vt qua can tren la dau hieu rat tch
cc v no bao hieu gia chng khoan se tiep tuc at ti mot cao
iem mi.
60
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
Can tren
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
92
--
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
vai
T2
T3
T4
vai
T5
T6
93
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
55
50
45
40
Thang 1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
94
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
95
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
96
z
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
* Ket hp 2 ng MA:
+ ng MA ngan han la 10 ngay va ng nay la ng bam sat
vi ng gia nhay cam vi bien ong th trng
+ ng MA dai han la 25 ngay , ng nay ay gia nh la
ng au t dai han t nhay cam vi bien ong th trng.
MA ngan han hu dung khi xu hng th trng ao chieu lien
tuc. MA dai han hoat ong tot hn trong th trng co xu hng
c gi vng. Khi o neu MA ngan han cat len tren ng MA
dai han bao hieu xu hng tang o cung chnh la tn hieu mua .
Con neu MA ngan han cat xuong di ng MA dai han th o
bao hieu xu hng giam va o la tn hieu ban. Neu nh nhn
chung cach nhau qua xa th hay than trong v co xu hng gia se
ao chieu.
97
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
98
z
z
z
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
99
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
100
So CP len gia
802
917
703
512
633
So CP xuong gia
748
640
772
1.122
1.004
Giai:
Ngay
So CP len gia
802
917
703
512
633
So CP xuong gia
748
640
772
1.122
1.004
Chenh lech
54
277
-69
-610
-371
o rong luy ke
54
331
262
-348
-719
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
101
4- Giao dch lo ln
Giao dch lo ln cua nha au t co to chc co tnh
chat dan dat th trng.
- Neu GD lo ln do ngi mua khi xng khien
cho gia th trng tang len.
- Neu GD lo ln do ngi ban khi xng se la
GD gia xuong
- Neu gia thc hien cua giao dch lo ln cao hn
cao hn gia cua giao dch trc o se c coi la
gia len ; neu thap hn se c coi la gia xuong.
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
102
CHUYN
QUN L DANH MC
U T
A- Th no l mt DMT
z
z
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
Mt danh mc u t l mt danh mc gm
cc chng khon m nh u t la chn
u t n c th:
T hai chng khon c chn u t
Tt c cc chng khon c giao dch trn
th trng nh c phiu, tri phiu, hay cc
giy t s hu bt ng sn... c chn
u t
103
Xy dng mt danh mc u t
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
104
Xy dng mt danh mc u t
1-Li sut ca danh mc
u t c tnh cn
c vo quyn s u t
vo mi chng khon
v li sut c tnh ca
mi chng khon tnh
theo cng thc nh
sau:
rP = x J .rJ
J =1
E (rP ) = x J .E (rJ )
J =1
Xy dng mt danh mc u t
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
105
ngn ng
5
105
100
Li ca chng khon
Gi cui k
Th gi
li sut ca chng khon
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
10.0%
Li sut
5%
10%
Quyn s
XA XB
-1
2
-0.5 1.5
0
1
0.5 0.5
1
0
1.5 -0.5
2 -1
li sut danh mc u t
E(rp)
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
106
Xy dng mt danh mc u t
2- Ri ro ca mt danh mc u t
z
l s bin thin v li sut ca danh
mc u t
z
Mc bin thin cng ln th ri ro cng
nhiu v ngc li
z
th hin tnh ton l ngi ta s tnh
lch tiu chun v li sut ca mt danh
mc u t
Xy dng mt danh mc u t
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
107
c phiu
XA
XA
XB
XC
A
B
C
A cov(rA,rA) cov(rA,rB) cov(rA,rC)
XB
XC
(r ) = [ x (r ) + x (r ) + x (r )
2
+ 2 x .x cov(r , r )
A
+ 2 x .x cov(r , r )
A
+ 2 x .x cov(r , r )]
B
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
1
2
108
cov(r ,r ) = (r
2
i =1
cov(r , r ) = (r ) (r )
A
=
A,B
A ,B
cov(r , r )
(r ) (r )
A
QS
0.2
0.3
CK
A
B
0.2 A
0.01 0.0160
0.3 B
0.0160
0.04
0.5 C
0.021
0.03
(rp ) =
0.04162
(rp)= 0.2040
0.5
C
0.021
0.03
0.09
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
109
10%
30%
5%
40%
POWER
E(r )
(r )
SQRT
SUM
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
XB
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
B
0.1
0.05
E(rp)
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
(rp)
0.41231056
0.21360009
0.05
0.20155644
0.4
0.60052061
0.80156098
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
110
0.6
E(rp)
-0.1
0 0.1
0.41 0.21 0.05
0.2
TH
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
TH
0.1
0
-0.1 0
(rp)
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-0.2
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
111
Xy dng mt danh mc u t
z
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Xy dng mt danh mc u t gm mt
chng khon khng ri ro v mt chng
khon c ri ro
Khi ng kt hp din t li sut ca
danh mc u t v ri ro ca danh mc
u t s l mt ng thng
112
V du e minh hoa
Chng khoan
8%
4%
6%
0%
lch chun (r )
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
113
th
E(rp)
E( rp ) Z (rp )
0.04
0
0.06 0.03
0.2
0.08 0.06
0.15
0.1 0.09
0.12
0.12
0.1
0.14 0.15
0.05
0.16 B0.18
0
0
th
A
(rp)
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Xy dng mt danh mc u t
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
Li sut ca danh mc T
ri ro ca danh mc u t
T trng v tin vn u t vo mi chng khon
114
E(rp)
(rp)
U T TI U L
NG MZ
20%
8%
Z
xa
20%
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15%
8%
4%
115
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn
(CAPM)
z
Cng thc nh gi ti sn vn
E(rj)= rf + [ E(rM) rf ]j
E(rj) : Li sut c tnh ca chng khon j
rf : li sut chng khon khng ri ro
E(rM) :Li sut th trng vn
j : s o ri ro ca mt c phiu j
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116
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn
(CAPM)
j =
COV(r j , rM )
Z 2 (rM )
Z(rj ) JM
Z(rM )
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn
(CAPM)
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
5%
16%
0
27%
16%
11%
5%
117
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn
(CAPM)
1.67
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn
(CAPM)
z
Sc p ca th trng vi gi cn bng
z
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118
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn
(CAPM)
z
E(r) =
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn
(CAPM)
v d minh ho
$
C tc
5
7
3
Gi u k
100
107 93.3
Gi cui k
100
105
95
E(r )
0.05
Mt tin tt p a n nh gi c tc l $7 v gi cui k l $105 khi
E( r )
0.12
Nhng li st hp l ch c 5% vi sc p ca gi th n phi tr li
li sut cn bng l 5% , th gi s l 106,67$
E( r )
0.05
Mt tin xu lm thay i thu nhp c tnh c tc $3 gi cui k l $95
E( r )
-0.02
H s bn h gi c phiu ch cn $ 93.33 v li sut li tr li cn bng
E( r )
0.05
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119
B- Qun l danh mc u t
z
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120
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
121
Qun l danh mc u t
3- Nh qun tr DMT c th l c nhn hay l
mt cng ty thay mt cho khch hng hay
nhng ngi y nhim cho h thc hin
nhng chc nng c bn sau:
z
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122
Qun l danh mc u t
4- Cc yu cu i vi nh qun l danh mc
u t:
z
Qun l danh mc u t
5- Cc phng php qun l danh mc u t
chng khon
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
123
Qun l danh mc u t
z
Qun l danh mc u t
z
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124
z
z
z
http://www.ifs.edu.vn
Chng trnh hc
Lch thi
Kt qu
125