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M&A Guide
M&A Guide
Valuation
M&A involves using more than one valuation technique to
arrive at a valuation that we think is fair. The most common
techniques used are:
Comparable Publicly traded companies (Public Comps) this analysis
indicates how the stock markets are valuing companies that are similar to
the target
Precedent Comparable Transaction analysis (Transaction Comps) this
analysis indicates the valuations at which prior M&A transactions have
been done in the same industry as that of the target.
DCF analysis is one of the most important valuation techniques
Sum-of-the-parts analysis If a target has more than one lines of
business, the financial advisor will value each business separately.
Therefore, each part might have its own Public Comps, Transaction
comps and DCF (with different WACCs for each part). The total value is
the sum of the parts
Other depending on the unique characteristics of the transaction,
financial advisors will perform a number of other analyses to arrive at fair
value like Leveraged Buyout (LBO) Analysis, Historical Exchange Ration
analyses etc.
PUBLIC COMPS
The peer group is a set of 5 to 10 companies that are most similar to the
target in terms of business mix and strategy, geographic risks(same
country), margins and size. (i.e. processed meats and raw meats are
different).
To find a good peer group start broad (all companies in the SIC code) and
then narrow the list to the most comparable peers. Also refer to equity
2
research reports, industry reports, the companys 10K where its discusses
competitors and Bloomberg (Quote 2) to identify the most comparable
peers. (look at filing 8K, prospectuses when they do a filing for new debt or
equity in freeedgar.)
Understand why Equity
valuation and Enterprise
valuation are different
The goal of the analysis is to understand how the markets is valuing the
peer group in terms of Price to Earnings, Price to Book value, Price to
Cashflow to Equity, What the PEG ratio is, Enterprise Value to Revenues,
EBITDA, Net Assets etc. Also understand if merger premium is already
built into price industry group should know this.
Using these, we will try to value the target bearing in mind that public
comps dont reflect the control premium that an acquirer will pay for
buying control of the target. The control premium is generally around 30%
for U.S. transactions. Also, some companies that are widely perceived to
be acquisition targets may have some premium built into their stock price.
1. Equity Multiples: P/E (Price / LTM EPS, Price / 1-Year forward EPS, Note
that the Earnings need to be after Preferred Dividends so that they are
earnings that are available to Common shareholders), Price to Book
(Price / Book value of equity per share).
2. Enterprise Value Multiples: EV/Revenues, EV/ EBITDA, EV/EBIT (Note
that the Revenues, EBITDA and EBIT multiples could be computed for
LTM and 1-Year forward projected numbers)
TRANSACTION COMPS
The most common ones are same as in the case of public comps but,
additionally, transaction comps also cover Premium paid (Offer price
premium as % of 1-day, 1-week and 4-week trading prices).
LBO
Goal is to understand how much value a financial buyer (with no operating
synergies) could buy the target for
ratio that does not exceed 5.0x. Note that these could vary based on the
nature of the industry.
(1)
Closing price: most recent closing stock price (from Bloomberg, ILX
or Populator). Prices for all companies should be as of the same
date.
(2)
Basic: The actual outstanding shares which can be found on the cover of
the latest 10Q or 10K.
Diluted: This is the Basic shares plus the dilutive impact of any in-themoney options or warrants that are outstanding as calculated by the
Treasury stock adjustment method. Look for average strike price and if
lower than closing price then assume would convert. Look at public
comps template. Option info is in 10K.
Fully diluted: Basic + All options and warrants (as if all converted into
equity)
Average: This calculates the average shares that were outstanding during
the year or quarter
(3)
Equity value multiples: While the Firm value multiples reflect how
the business is valued, equity multiples reflect how equities are valued
relative to the net income or EPS (LTM and projected) and Book value
(latest available).
Projected P/E: Get median I/B/E/S estimates for the next two years.
(Available on Bloomberg, Infocenter, Insight, or Populator by inputting = IDD
(ticker, FY1MEDIA or FY2MEDIA, 0). These estimates are reported on
fully diluted basis and updated every Thursday. Always use median I/B/E/S
(not mean) to avoid skewed data values. Calendarize earnings estimates as
needed
Projected net income multiple: Multiply forward I/B/E/S by I/B/E/S projected
weighted average shares outstanding (=IDD (ticker, ibesshrs, 0) to obtain
projected net income. (Note that I/B/E/S shares are not fully diluted and
are source from Exlel not street analysts. It is thus important to
check to see that I/B/E/S projected shares outstanding are consistent
with credible brokerage reports; if not, use most recent 10-Q shares
outstanding to derive fully diluted shares.) Divide projected net income
into current equity value.
(5)
(7)
(8)
Company
Closing
Equity
Firm
Firm value/LTM
Price
Value
Value
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
($)
($MM)
($MM)
(x)
(x)
(x)
Comp 1
Comp 2
Comp 3
Comp 4
Comp 5
Mean
Median
Company financials
Implied firm value
Net debt
Implied equity value
Implied equity value per share
Implied premium/ (discount)
(x)
FY1
LT growth
FY2
Optional multiples
rate
P/BVPS
P/CFPS
(%)
(x)
(x)
Trading comparables
Exhibit: Selected operating statistics
Projected LT growth rates
Company
Business
description
Sales
CF ,
Five-year EPS
(%)
(%)
(%)
LTM EBITDA
Margin
(%)
(%)
LTM leverage
Adjusted
Adjusted
book
market
(%)
(%)
LTM EBIT/interest
(x)
Comp 1
Comp 2
Comp 3
Comp 4
Comp 5
Mean
Median
Company
Estimated CAGR over the next five years based on the Value Line report as of (date)
Cash flow as defined by Value Line
Median estimated CAGR of EPS over the next five years based on the I/B/E/S report as of (date)
10
Trading comparables
Exhibit: Selected credit and operating statistics
Growth
Sales
Company
Margins
Earnings
EBIT
Returns
Earnings
ROE
Credit
ROC
Interest coverage5
Leverage
L3YA
L3YA
N5YA
L3YA
LTM
L3YA
LTM
LFY
LFY
Book
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
L3YA
LTM
(%)
(x)
(x)
Mkt.
S&P/Mdy
Rating
Comp 1
Comp 2
Comp 3
Comp 4
Comp 5
Mean
Median
Company
All financial information is before extraordinary items. All LTM figures are for the period ending (latest 10K/Q date). Three-year averages for the fiscal years (date)(date)
2
Next 5-years average annual EPS growth rate represents mean estimates from I/B/E/S report of (date)
3
Total debt divided by total debt and book value as of (latest 10K/Q)
4
Total debt divided by total debt and current market value
5
EBIT divided by gross interest expense
1
11
(3)
LTM leverage:
Book leverage: divide total debt by sum of equity accounts from
latest 10K/Q and total debt
(4)
LTM EBIT/interest:
Divide EBIT (including interest income) by gross interest expense
(not net of interest income)
(5)
12
(6)
(7)
S&P/Moodys ratings:
Call S&P at 212-208-1527 and Moodys at 212-553-0377; ask for the
current senior secured rating. Alternatively, library has reference
books with recent ratings
13
Item
Latest indicated
annual dividend
Common shares
outstanding
Used for equity and firm valuations. On the front page of the latest
10K/Q near the bottom
Average shares
outstanding
LT debt
LT debt plus redeemable pfd. stock plus minority interests (if any).
Other types of pfd. stock are not considered LT debt. (10K/Q)
ST debt
Book value
Gross interest
expense
D, D &A
EBIT
Earnings before gross interest expense and taxes but after minority
interest and equity interest in subsidiaries
EBITDA
Net income plus D, D &A plus changes in deferred taxes plus other
noncash charges. (From cash flow statement, but before working
capital changes, which are discretionary)
EPS
Projected sales
Projected EPS
14
Recipe, comments
Equity value
Equity capitalization
Firm value
Price/earnings
Price/cash flow
Dividend yield
Price/book
Percent payout
Annual dividend/EPS
Interest coverage
Firm value/EBIT
Firm value/EBITDA1
Firm value/sales1
1
The idea is that since EBIT, EBITDA, and sales are not affected by the Companys choice of
capital structure (as cash flow, earnings, EPS, and book value are) the appropriate multiples
use total capital and not just equity capital
15
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Equity purchase price: Equity value paid = Offer price x Target shares
(cash transaction); Acquirer issue price x Exchange ratio x Target shares
(stock transaction). From 8K or proxy1
6.
7.
8.
Transaction multiples
(a) Calculate LTM Revenue, EBITDA, EBIT, and net income using the
latest financial statements prior to the announcement of the
Transaction.
See Trading Comparables if unclear on calculating LTM numbers
16
(b) Calculate Book Value by taking Common Equity accounts from the
annual report or 10K/Q immediately prior to the date of the
transaction.
(c) Divide Book value and LTM net income into the equity purchase
price; divide LTM Revenues, EBITDA and EBIT into Aggregate
purchase price. The results are the comparable transactions
multiples.
9.
17
as a multiple of
LTM:
Acquirer/
Target
Ann.
Date
Consideration/
transaction terms
Status
%
Vote
acquire.
(%)
Ag-biotechnology Mycogen transactions
Pioneer/Mycogen
9/18/95
Cash; private; 3MM primary shares @ $10; Closed
13.4
also, $21MM for R&D funding
DowElanco/Mycogen
1/15/96
Privately negotiated purchase of
Closed
36.6
secondary 9.5MM shares, from Lubrizol;
Mycogen/Lubrizol
1/15/96
Buyback of 19.46% stake in Mycogen Seeds from Lubrizol for 1.5MM
primary shares; separately, Lubrizol converts preferred shares, into
1.8MM primary shares @ 17.398 (25% premium over average
closing price during prior 60 days)
Mycogen/United Agriseeds
1/15/96
Concurrent sale by (DowElanco to MYCO
Closed
100.0
for 4.5MM shares. (14.8%) and $26.4MM
cash (DowElancos MYCO stake raised to
46.1%)
Implied MYCO valuation @ $16 per share (last close pre issuance of 4.5MM shares. to DowElanco)
DowElanco/Mycogen
12/4/96
Negotiated purchase of 1MM shares. from
Closed
3.3
Co. to thwart Monsanto overtures; DE
stake over 50%
Ag-biotechnology Calgene transactions
Monsanto/Calgene
6/28/95
30.2MM primary shares (49.9%) in ex. for
Closed
49.9
$30.0MM cash, oils & produce techn.,
Gargiolyo (tomato germ plasm); privately
negotiated reorg. w/purchase acct.
Monsanto/Calgene
7/31/96
Cash; 6.25MM primary shares @ 48.00
Closed
4.7
privately negotiated; MTC gains Board
control with 54.6% voting block
Monsanto/Calgene
1/27/97
Two-step cash offer for last 45% stake;
Pending
45.4
original offer of $7.25 in Jan., 1997,
privately negotiated final offer @ $8.00
Ag-biotechnology other transactions
Bionova (ELM)/DNA Plant
1/29/96
Stock swap reverse merger DNAP is
Closed
70.0
Tech.
surviving entity s. ELM as 70% owner and
Bionova mgmt. $39MM deal based on last
DNAP close of $7 per share
AgEvo (Hoechst/Schering)
8/23/96
Competitive bidding serious interest from
Closed
70.0
Plant Genetic Systems
Novartis, DuPont, Bayer and Zeneca
Control?
Agg.
purch.
price
Implied
mkt.
cap
Implied
firm
value
Prem.
over
mkt.
LTM
NI
Book
value
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Est.
LTG
Rate
Target
Business
Description
($MM)
($MM)
($MM) (1)
(%) (2)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(%) (3)
No
30.0
257.3
196.9
(13.0)
NM
1.8
1.7
NM
NM
17.5
No
126.0
444.7
358.1
(6.9)
NM
2.3
2.9
NM
NM
18.0
Yes
98.4
98.4
98.4
No
Yes
72
16.8
536.6
587.9
623.3
556.7
12.3
0.0
NM
NM
2.7
3.4
5.0
3.5
NM
NM
NM
NM
18.0
20.0
No
144.2
299.8
268.0
(30.5)
NM
6.5
4.8
NM
NM
NA
Yes
50.0
573.1
620.5
80.3
NM
6.1
6.5
NM
NM
20.0
No
242.6
573.4
615.3
64.1
NM
7.2
4.0
NM
NM
20.0
Yes
38.6
63.4
67.9
(25.3)
NM
NM
4.5
NM
NM
50.0
Plant cellular
genetics
Yes
550.0
785.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
>100
NA
NA
NA
Plant
biotechnology
4.3
3.4
4.1
4.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
23.4
20.0
Biopesticides;
crop protection
Biopesticides;
crop protection
NM
Hybrid seed
corn soybean
Biopesticides;
crop protection
Equal to amount paid per share times the pro forma number of shares outstanding (including options)
Equal to implied market capitalization plus total pro forma net debt
Unaffected price defined as closing price one week prior to transaction announcement
4
Median estimated CAGR of EPS over the five years post announcement date, based on the latest I/B/E/S report as of transaction announcement
2
3
18
Calculation:
Net income (excluding extraordinary items and before preferred
dividends, equity income and minority interest)
+
After-tax interest expense (net interest expense (1- average tax rate))
+
Depreciation & amortization & deferred taxes & other non-cash charges
Capital expenditures
19