Mainstreet - Manitoba January A

MANITOBA
[JANUARY 2015; PART A]
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,552 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on January 7th,
2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.49%, 19 times
out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.49%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.55%; 19
times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Census.
A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
PCs LEAD; LIBERALS SECOND IN MANITOBA

January 11, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the PC Party leading in
Manitoba with the Liberals in 2nd and the NDP in 3rd. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin
of error of +/- 2.49%, 19 times out of 20.
Its unexpected that the Liberals are doing so well said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. They are running second overall in the province but also are in second outside of
Winnipeg. In Winnipeg itself they are in 3rd, statistically tied with the NDP.
These are good numbers for the Progressive Conservatives though it is early days yet. If the
Liberals and NDP evenly split progressive support in Winnipeg, vote splits may mean that the PCs
walk away with some unexpected seats. They currently hold a 7% lead in Winnipeg over the NDP
(21%) and Liberals (20%).
With one in four voters undecided this could turn into a three way race. But the Liberals will need
to make major inroads outside Winnipeg for them to contend for government. Outside Winnipeg
they are polling at 22% but the PCs are at 42% - a 20% lead.
Healthcare and the Economy are tied for Manitobans most important issue, both at 30%. When
asked about who is best to manage the provinces nances Manitobans gave answers more or less
the same as their voting intentions, but when asked about who is best for Healthcare, the NDP
perform 6% higher than their provincial support so there is room for them to grow their support.
Its certainly an issue Manitobans will be following closely, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been
the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
A3
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
17%
24%
5%
33%
21%
NDP
PC
NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
Liberal
Green
18-34
18%
31%
24%
8%
19%
288
35-49
13%
33%
17%
3%
33%
372
Undecided
50-64
15%
34%
22%
2%
26%
338
65+
24%
35%
18%
5%
19%
554
Winnipeg
21%
28%
20%
6%
25%
790
Male Female
16%
18%
35%
31%
21%
20%
6%
3%
21%
28%
753
799
Rest of MB
11%
42%
22%
2%
24%
762
A4
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (Decided Only)
6%
23%
27%
44%
NDP
PC

Liberal
18-34
22%
38%
30%
10%
Green
35-49
19%
50%
26%
5%
50-64
21%
47%
30%
2%
65+ Male Female

29% 20%
25%
43% 45% 43%
22% 27%
28%
6%
8%
4%
Winnipeg
28%
37%
27%
8%
Rest of MB
14%
55%
29%
2%
A5
And, which party leader do you trust most to keep their election promise?
15%
27%
2%
34%
22%
NDP
PC

UNDECIDED

UNDECIDED
Liberal
Green
18-34
12%
37%
29%
0%
22%
35-49
13%
28%
19%
3%
37%
Undecided
50-64
14%
37%
20%
2%
28%
65+ Male Female

22% 14%
15%
34% 37%
31%
19% 25%
19%
3%
2%
2%
22% 22%
33%
Winnipeg
17%
27%
28%
3%
25%
Rest of MB
10%
45%
13%
1%
31%
A6
And, which of these is the single most important issue in determining your vote? Crime, Healthcare, Education,
the Economy, Indigenous Issues, Infrastructure or something else?
5%
11%
6%
5%
30%
3%
30%
Crime
Indigenous Issues
CRIME
HEALTHCARE
EDUCATION
THE ECONOMY
INDIGENOUS ISSUES
INFRASTRUCTURE
SOMETHING ELSE
NOT SURE
CRIME
HEALTHCARE
EDUCATION
THE ECONOMY
INDIGENOUS ISSUES
INFRASTRUCTURE
SOMETHING ELSE
NOT SURE
10%
Healthcare
Education
Infrastructure
The Economy
Something Else
18-34
12%
33%
17%
24%
0%
0%
5%
8%
35-49
1%
22%
6%
29%
4%
9%
7%
23%
Not Sure
50-64
3%
26%
9%
37%
4%
8%
8%
5%
65+ Male Female

3%
4%
6%
40% 29%
31%
6%
8%
12%
31% 35%
25%
6%
4%
2%
4%
7%
4%
3%
6%
6%
9%
7%
15%
Winnipeg
4%
33%
9%
27%
3%
6%
4%
14%
Rest of MB
7%
25%
11%
36%
3%
4%
8%
7%
A7
In your opinion, which party do you think would do a better job of managing the provinces nances?
19%
20%
2%
23%
36%
NDP
PC

UNDECIDED

UNDECIDED
Liberal
Green
18-34
25%
30%
40%
0%
6%
35-49
15%
34%
15%
3%
32%
Undecided
50-64
15%
42%
16%
2%
25%
65+
22%
39%
18%
3%
19%
Winnipeg
24%
29%
25%
2%
21%
Male Female
16%
22%
39%
33%
26%
20%
2%
1%
17%
23%
Rest of MB
11%
48%
21%
2%
19%
A8
And, which party do you think would do a better job on Healthcare?
21%
23%
2%
20%
34%
NDP
PC

UNDECIDED

UNDECIDED
Liberal
Green
18-34
18%
44%
24%
0%
14%
35-49
26%
25%
16%
3%
30%
Undecided
50-64
25%
34%
19%
1%
20%
65+
26%
32%
19%
2%
21%
Winnipeg
28%
29%
19%
2%
22%
Male Female
21%
25%
38%
31%
24%
16%
2%
1%
15%
27%
Rest of MB
16%
43%
21%
1%
19%
A9
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And, which party leader do you trust most to keep their election promise?
Greg Selinger of the NDP
Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives
Rana Bokhari of the Liberals
James Beddome of the Green Party
Undecided
And, which of these is the single most important issue in determining your vote? Crime,
Healthcare, Education, the Economy, Indigenous Issues, Infrastructure or something else?
Crime
Healthcare
Education
The Economy
Indigenous Issues
Infrastructure
Something Else
Not Sure
In your opinion, which party do you think would do a better job of managing the provinces
nances?
Undecided
And, which party do you think would do a better job on Healthcare?
Undecided
ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.
I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
CONNECT WITH US:
WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca
TWITTER
@MainStResearch
FACEBOOK
fb.com/mainstresearch
2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

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MANITOBA

[JANUARY 2015; PART A]

PCs LEAD; LIBERALS SECOND IN MANITOBA

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

65+ Male Female

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

65+ Male Female

65+ Male Female

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

And, which party do you think would do a better job on Healthcare?

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

CONNECT WITH US:

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

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