Infinex Investments

MillRiver Wealth Management

Leeann Maxwell
Financial Advisor
89 North Main St
Concord, NH 03301
603-223-2710
lmaxwell@infinexgroup.com

Market Week: January 19, 2016

The Markets (as of market close January 15, 2016)
Last week was a perfect storm of bad news for investors, as China's continuing economic and stock market
woes and the ongoing plunge in oil prices--combined with a stream of disappointing news about the U.S.
economy--sparked yet another sharp selloff. Markets took a beating, with the Russell 2000 index leading
the way (-3.68%). Both the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are down more than 10% for the first two weeks
of 2016.
Crude oil closed below $30 a barrel, settling at $29.42. Concerns about sanctions being lifted in Iran, which
observers worry will exacerbate the current oversupply situation, helped fuel the price plunge. The national
average regular retail gas price dropped to $1.996 on January 11, $0.032 less than the previous week and
$0.143 lower than a year ago.
Gold prices rose and Treasury yields dropped toward week's end, as investors sought relative safety. Gold
closed at $1,088.60 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury lost 8 basis points from a week prior.
Market/Index

2015 Close

Prior Week

As of 1/15

Weekly Change YTD Change

DJIA

17425.03

16346.45

15988.08

-2.19%

-8.25%

Nasdaq

5007.41

4643.63

4488.42

-3.34%

-10.36%

S&P 500

2043.94

1922.03

1880.33

-2.17%

-8.00%

Russell 2000

1135.89

1046.20

1007.72

-3.68%

-11.28%

Global Dow

2336.45

2189.48

2127.02

-2.85%

-8.96%

Fed. Funds

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

0 bps

0 bps

10-year
Treasuries

2.26%

2.11%

2.03%

-8 bps

-23 bps

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not
be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week's Headlines

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), job openings changed minimally in November, rising
to 5.43 million from October's reading of 5.35 million. Hires and separations were also little changed.
Within separations, the quits rate was 2.0% and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2%. Over the 12
months ended in November, job openings rose 11%, with the largest increases in health care and social
assistance and accommodation and food services.
The Federal Reserve "beige book" reported modest growth in 9 of its 12 districts for the latter part of
2015 into 2016. New York and Kansas City reported growth as "essentially flat," and contacts from
Boston were "upbeat." Expectations for future growth were positive in Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago,
Atlanta, Dallas, and Kansas City.
The U.S. Treasury reported that the budget deficit was $14.4 billion in December, down from $64.6
billion in November. Fiscal year to date, the deficit totals $216 billion, compared to $177 billion for the

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Key Dates/Data Releases

1/18: Markets closed for
Martin Luther King Jr. Day
1/19: Housing Market Index
1/20: CPI, housing starts
1/21: PMI Flash, existing
home sales

same period last year.

Import prices fell 1.2% in December, the largest monthly drop since August 2015, reported the BLS. The
decline was driven mainly by fuel import prices, which fell a precipitous 9.5% in December following a
3.5% drop in November. (Fuel import prices fell 40.5% in 2015, following a 29.1% drop in 2014.) Imports
excluding fuel fell 3.4% in 2015, the largest drop since the index was first published in 2001. Exports fell
1.1% in December, also the largest monthly decline since last August. Both agricultural and
nonagricultural exports fell 1.0% during the month. Export prices dropped 6.5% in 2015, the largest
annual decline since the index was first published in 1983.
The BLS also reported a decline of 0.2% in the Producer Price Index for final demand in December,
compared to an increase of 0.3% in November. The December dip was attributed to a 0.7% decline in
the prices of goods, largely resulting from falling gas prices. Services rose 0.1%. For the year, the index
fell 1.0%, compared to an increase of 0.9% in 2014.
U.S. retail and food services sales posted a monthly drop of 0.1% during the all-important shopping
month of December, recording a total of $448.1 billion, reported the Department of Commerce. Total
sales for 2015 were up just 2.1%, which was the smallest annual increase since 2009. The biggest
annual gainers were sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (7.6%); nonstore retailers (7.1%);
food and drink establishments (6.7%); and motor vehicles (6.3%).
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production declined 0.4% in December, primarily due to
cutbacks in utilities and mining. This was the third consecutive monthly decline. November figures were
also revised downward, to a drop of 0.9% from a previously estimated 0.6%. Year-over-year, production
was down 1.8%. Capacity utilization for manufacturing was 76.0% in December 2015, 2.5% lower than
its long-term average.
A bright note last week came from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, which said that
the preliminary reading for the Index of Consumer Sentiment was 93.3 for January, compared to 92.6 for
December. This is the fourth month in a row that consumer sentiment rose. Chief Economist Richard
Curtin attributed the growth to continuing levels of low inflation.
According to the Department of Commerce, business inventories fell 0.2% in November from October,
but were up 1.6% over the previous 12 months. Sales also fell 0.2% from October and were down 2.8%
year-over-year. The inventories/sales ratio in November was 1.38, compared to 1.32 a year prior.
Unemployment benefit applications totaled 284,000 for the week ended January 9, a rise of 7,000 from
the previous week. This is the second-highest level since July. The advance number for seasonally
adjusted insured unemployment during the week ended January 2 was 2,263,000, which was 29,000
higher than the previous week.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Investors will continue to monitor the China-and-oil drumbeat, as well the continuing flow of corporate
earnings reports. This week's economic releases include key reports on housing, inflation, and
manufacturing.
Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news
sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as
government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data
reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information
Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot
gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed
reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information
nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and
should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing
involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing
strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded
blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common
stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index
is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell
2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow
is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices
listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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Prepared by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2016

Investment and insurance products and services are offered through INFINEX INVESTMENTS, INC. Member FINRA/SIPC. Infinex and the bank
are not affiliated. Products and services made available through Infinex are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency of the United States
and are not deposits or obligations of nor guaranteed or insured by any bank or bank affiliate. These products are subject to investment risk,
including the possible loss of value.
NOT FDIC-INSURED. NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY. NOT GUARANTEED BY THE BANK. MAY GO DOWN IN
VALUE.

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Prepared by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2016