A={,}, .. .

3 : Pr(A)=Pr()+Pr()=0.16+0.36=0.52.

: 0.52.
:
,
1.
.
a
.

.3.2 :
. 25%
, 43% , .
2 .
?
:
,

(
).
1=1={1, 2, 3}={1,2,3}.
1 2,

=3,
Pr(1)=25%=0.25, Pr(2)=43%=0.43. Pr(3)=1-(Pr(1)+Pr(2))=1-(0.25+0.43)=0.32
, 2
1 ( .3.1)
.

82

O1

Pr(1)=0.25

Pr(2)=0.43

O2
Pr(1|1)=0.25
Pr(2|1)=0.43
Pr(3|1)=0.32

Pr(1|2)=0.25
Pr(2|2)=0.43
Pr(3|2)=0.32

Pr(3)=0.32
Pr(1|3)=0.25
Pr(2|3)=0.43
Pr(3|3)=0.32

11

1
2

12

13

1
2

21
22

23

1
2

31
32

33

(.. ) :
={11, 12, 13, 21, 22, 23, 31, 32, 33}
: Pr(23)=Pr(2)Pr(3|2)=0.430.32=0.138.

( 86).
86:

11

12

13

21

22

23

31

32

33

Pr() 0.063

0.108

0.08

0.108

0.185

0.138

0.08

0.138

0.102

=1

: = .

. .
, ,
( ). :

A =
... (,
p(A) !!!)
: p( A) = 1 - p( A) , p( A) = 0, 25 0, 25 + 0, 43 0, 43 + 0,32 0, 32 = 0,3498 0,35 .
: p( A) = 1 - 0,35 = 0,65 .

p( A) = 0, 25(0, 43 + 0,32) + 0, 43(0, 25 + 0,32) + 0,32(0, 25 + 0, 43)

:
= 0, 25 0, 75 + 0, 43 0, 57 + 0, 32 0, 68
= 0, 6502 0, 65

83



.
!

.3.2
.3.3 : 4 6 :
. , ,
.
.
?
: .3.1 .

1

2
Pr(|)

Pr()

Pr(|)

Pr(|)
Pr()

Pr(|)

, 1
Pr()=Pr()=0.4 Pr()=Pr()=0.6.
,
9
.
!
,
9 : 3 6
.
:

Pr(|) =

3
3
=
= 0.33
3 + 6 9

Pr( |) =

6
6
=
= 0.67
3 + 6 9

, :
4 5 .
84

: p(|) =

4
5
0,44 p( |) =
0 , 56 .
4+5
4+5

:
1

2
Pr(|)=0.33

Pr()=0.4

Pr(|)=0.67

Pr(|)=0.44
Pr()=0.6

Pr(|)=0.56

,
( 87).
87:

Pr()

0.132

0.267

0.264

0.336

=1

()

1-

2-
2

Pr(|)=0.33

Pr()=0.40.33=0.13

Pr(|)=0.67

Pr()=0.40.67=0.27

Pr(|)=0.44

Pr()=0.60.44=0.26

Pr(|)=0.56

Pr()=0.60.56=0.34

Pr()=0.4

Pr()=0.6

=0.13+0.27+0.26+0.34=1

,
={,} .
: Pr(A)=Pr()+Pr()=0.132+0.336=0.468
85