.3.

1
.
.3.3
.
.3.4 : 4 6 :
. ,
. .

?
: a , ..
, .. Pr(|).
: .3.3 Pr(|)=0.67.
: | ( )?
.3.3.
| | Pr(|)=0.33
1 .
:
|
.
|
.
.3.5 : 4 6 :
. ,
. .
?
: .
: .3.3 , Pr()=0.27.

86

.3.4 e
.3.6 :
. 25%
, 43% , . , 7%
, 11% 19% ,
.
1 .
?
: Pr(B)=?
B
,
.

. .
, ,

, .
,
/ . , ,
.. / ,
.

1, :
1

2
Pr(|1)=0.93

Pr(|1)=0.07

Pr(1)=0.25

Pr(2)=0.43

Pr(|2)=0.89

Pr(|2)=0.11

Pr(3)=0.32
Pr(|3)=0.81

Pr(|3)=0.19

88 .

87

 88:

Pr(1)=0.25

Pr(2)=0.43

Pr(3)=0.32

Pr(|1)=0.93

p(1 I ) = 0, 25 0,93 = 0, 233

Pr(|1)=0.07

p(1 I ) = 0, 25 0, 07 = 0, 018

Pr(|2)=0.89

p(2 I ) = 0, 43 0,89 = 0, 383

Pr(|2)=0.11

p(2 I ) = 0, 43 0,11 = 0, 047

Pr(|3)=0.81

p(3 I ) = 0, 32 0,81 = 0, 259

Pr(|3)=0.19

p(3 I ) = 0,32 0,19 = 0, 061

,
B={1,2,3}
.
:
Pr ( ) = Pr(1 B) + Pr(2 B) + Pr(1 B) = Pr(1) Pr(B|1) + Pr(2) Pr(B|2) + Pr(3) Pr(B| 3)

= 0.018 + 0.047 + 0.061 = 0.13 = 13%

: ,
= , ,
.
, (6)
.
.3.7 :
. 25%
, 43% , . , 7%
, 11% 19% ,
.
1 .
?
: Pr(2|)= ?
88 .3.6,
. ?
?
Pr(2)=Pr()Pr(2|)
( 7)
Pr(2)=Pr(2)

( )

Pr(2)=Pr(2)Pr(|2)

( 7)
88

: Pr()Pr(2|)=Pr(2)Pr(|2)

Pr(2|) =

Pr(2) Pr( |2)

Pr()

( )

88
.3.6.
Pr(2)=0.43

2- ( )

Pr(|2) =0.89

2- ( )

Pr()=1-Pr()=1-0.13=0.87

: Pr(2|) =

0.43 0.89
= 0.44 = 44%
0.87

.. 44%.

.3.5
.3.8 5 7 , 7 5
.
5 5
. , .
?
:
,

. :
5
( : p1 ( ) =
0, 42 ),
12
7
( : p2 ( ) =
0, 58 ),
12
5+2 =7 5+0=5
: p3 ( ) =

7
0,58 ,
12

:
p( ) = p1 ( ) p2 ( ) p3 ( ) = 0, 42 0, 58 0,58 = 0,14 .

89