Eic 2014-Q2

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center
Outlook
Quarter 2/2014
2014
Bull - Bear:
In focus:
Summary of main forecasts
:
.
.
2/2014
EIC
% 2014
1.6
: %YOY
1.3
-6.6
2013
2014F
2015
2014
: %YOY
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 1Q2013
32-34
()
120
()
80
()
2Q2013
3Q2013
40
0
-40
4Q2013 Jan-Feb2014 -80
: %YOY
20
10
0
-10
-20
: %YOY
14.1
4.0
3.1
3
2543 3
2011
2012
-0.3
EIC Online 2014F

Jan-Feb
2014
1Q2013
2Q2013 3Q2013
4Q2013
2013

4.0%
www.scbeic.com
E-mail : eic@scb.co.th
: +662 544 2953
@SCB_EIC
03
05
Houseview
2014
0.25%
1.75%
2.2%
04
E-mail

: EIC CEIC, ., .

2014
Bull - Bear:
35
In focus:
38
Summary of main forecasts
53
SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)
2014

2014
1.6%

4.0%

1.75%

32-34
QE

(Fed funds rate)
2015
2015
2/2014
2014

( 1)
2014
: %QOQ SAAR
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
8.0
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-8.0
2.0
4.1
2.5
2.4
1.1
2.1
3.0
3.4
3.4
1.3
1.0
0.5
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.4
7.5
7.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.9
-2.0
4.8
3.9
8.5
1.1
0.7
3.2
2.6
-3.8
1.7
8.0
7.5
: %YOY
7.7
7.5
7.8
7.7
7.4
7.6
7.0
6.5
: (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank Bank of America)
3%

1.1%MOM SA ()

( 3)
3 4 2013 2.6
3 2000 2.2 ( 4)

2008
192,000
2013 185,000 ( 5)
80%
( 6)

(Fed)
QE
2015 (Barack Obama)
7.25
10.10 2016 2015
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
2

Fed 2015 (Janet Yellen)
(FOMC) 19-20 Fed
(Fed funds rate) QE 6
2015 FOMC 2015 1% 0.75%
2% 2016
2 0.35% 0.44%
Fed
6.5%
2/2014
(U. of Michigan sentiment)
70
-1.0
Jan-14
Mar-14
-0.5
Nov-13
-10
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
10
75
Jul-13
20
-8
0.0
Sep-13
-6
30
80
May-13
()
()
-4
: 1966=100
90
85
0.5
Jan-13
40
Mar-13
50
-2
Nov-12
60
Jul-12
70
Sep-12
: %MOM SA
1.5
()
()
1.0
May-12
:
80
Jan-12
: %QOQ SAAR
6
Mar-12
(Real GDP)
(ISM Manufacturing)
65
5
2013

: %
: MOM SA
300
3.0
250
()
()
8.5
2013
8.0
7.5
200
2.5
7.0
150
2.0
6.5
100
6.0
50
1.5
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 88 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
6
2008
5.5
: % .. 2008
5
: %YOY 3
40

30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
0
-10
-15
-20
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
-25
-30
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
-5
5.0
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
: Deutsche Bank , EIC CEIC

7
1.0%
4 0.3%QOQ SA ()
3
2013
2011 ( 9)
1 2.5%YOY ()

( 10)

12%

0.5% 5
( 11)

2%
1% ( 12)
( 13)

( Box: )
(ECB)
(IMF) ECB
ECB 1.
ECB (Deposit facility rate) 2.
3.
(Quantitative Easing: QE) ECB

2/2014
(Real GDP) (PMI)

: %QOQ SA
1.5
()
()
:
65
60
0.5
55
0.0
50
-0.5
45
-1.0
40
-1.5
35
-2.0
30
-2.5
25
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
1.0
: %YOY SA 3
: SA 3
4.0
20
: ()
3.0
15
12
()
2.0
10
1.0
5
0.0
0
-1.0
-5
-2.0
-10
-3.0
-15
-4.0
-20
-5.0
-25
-6.0
-30
-7.0
-35
= -13
-8.0
-40
-9.0
-45
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
10
11
: %YOY
: %YOY SA
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
ECB = 2%
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.3 1.2
0.8 0.7
0.5
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.4 0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.5
12
: %YOY
1Q2013
0.1
0.9
3Q2013
4Q2013
11.9
0.2
-0.8
0.1
4.4
-0.4
1.9
0.6
-0.7
-2.0
-3.2
-0.2
: %YOY SA
2Q2013
-1.9
3.9
1.6
0.0
13
0.7
2.5
0.8
0.1 0.5
0.6
1.3
0.5
-0.3
0.2
0.6
1.1
-0.7
-1.3
-2.4
-3.7-3.4
2Q2013
4Q2013
-0.5
-1.4
-2.1
-0.4
-1.0
1Q2013
3Q2013
-2.2
-3.7
-4.4
: EIC CEIC, Bloomberg, Eurostat International Trade Centre
BOX:

2013

65% ( 14)

23%

14
(% )
23
65
58
77
35
: EIC International Trade Centre
10
42
2/2014
1.0%
1) 2)
3)
3.5%QOQ SA 0.4%QOQ SA
(Net exports) 30.1%QOQ SA
0.7%QOQ SA ( 0.8%QOQ SA )
1.5% 2012 ( 15)

( 16)
( 17)
2014
2011 40% 30%

(Sales tax) 5% 8%
( 18)
2

(base pay) 1% ( 19)

2
( 20)
(Haruhiko Kuroda)

12-13 2
11
15
2013
Abenomics
(Real GDP) (PMI)

:
60
()
58
56
4.5
54
4.1
3.5
52
0.9
0.7
0.1
50
48
-1.7
-3.2
46
44
+1.4%YOY
+1.5%YOY
42
(2012)
(2013)
40
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014
16
: %YOY
20
: %QOQ SAAR
15
()
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
17
2014
:
25
: ()
:
4.0
: ()
()
15
10
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013
-10
-15
-20
Jan-12
18
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
: %YOY
2.5
2.0
0.0
1
2014
()
()
: EIC CEIC Bloomberg
43
37
-4
Jan-12 Apr-12
20
Jul-12
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13 Jan-14
: %YOY
QQE
45
39
-2
-6
47
41
: %YOY
Jan-14
10
6
12
0
-5
3.0
0.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
1.0
19
10
3.5
1.5
5
0
15
20
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2014 2%
:
:
QQE
35
2/2014
2014 7.5% 7.7%

2013 7.4% 2014
2013
(Purchasing Managers Index: PMI) 51.3
50.3 1 2014 ( 21)

1 2014 17.6% ( 22) 12.2% ( 23)

Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy 1
Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate
15 2,400 98 1,100
2014
(Shadow banking)

7.5%
3 1)
2) 3)
2016

(Reserve Requirement Ratio: RRR)

6.6%YOY 20131 ( 24)

(
Box: )
1.7%
13
21
22
(Real GDP) (PMI)

: %YOY
9.0
()
()
:
53
: %YOY
50
52
40
8.0
51
30
7.5
50
20
7.0
49
10
6.5
48
47
-10
5.5
46
-20
5.0
45
8.5
6.0
8.1
7.6
7.4
7.7
7.9
7.7
7.8
7.5
7.4
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014
1Q2012
3Q2012
1Q2013
3Q2013
1Q2014
23
24
JPMorgan
: %YOY
: %YOY
30
20
18
16
20
10
0
14
12
-10
10
-20
-30
26
: %YOY
0.29
1.90
0.64
2.57
1.82
2Q2012
1Q2012
0.5
0.0
: %YOY
25
2.07
0.65
0.38
0.46
0.88
0.95
2.40
0.71
0.60
0.49
0.52
1.23
1.28
2.80
2.90
0.67
0.69
2.30
10
0.46
0.46
0.72
0.46
1.67
1.75
15
1.11
-5
1Q2014
1.0
0.76
2.43
4Q2013
1.5
2.87
3Q2013
2.0
20
2Q2013
0.34
1Q2013
2.5
0.86
4Q2012
3.0
3.77
3Q2012
3.5
()
()
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014

25
4.0
: EIC National Bureau Statistic of China, Bloomberg CEIC

14
:
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
2/2014
BOX:
6.10 2013
6.15 1% ( 27)

2014

1% 2%
(Market-based exchange
rate system)
(Full convertibility)
27
1%
2013
:
8.5
8
7.5
7
1%
2014
6.5
5.5
5
17%
2005 2008
8%
2010 2012
Jan-03
Jun-03
Nov-03
Apr-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Jul-05
Dec-05
May-06
Oct-06
Mar-07
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
: EIC CEIC
15
4
4 2013
( 28
29)

3

2013
4

1)
( 30)
2)

(Reserve Requirement Ratio: RRR) 1 percentage
point 3)

2
6.6 (Joint venture)
16
2/2014
28
2013
ASEAN4
ASEAN4 2013
: %YOY
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
30
1Q2013
3Q2013
+7.2% (2013)
+6.8% (2012)
+5.8% (2013)
+6.3% (2012)
6.0 5.8
5.6 5.7
7.7 7.6
+4.7% (2013)
+5.6% (2012)
4.1 4.4
6.9
6.5
+4.1% (2013)
+1.9% (2012)
5.8
5.0 5.1
5.5
29
2Q2013
4Q2013
: %YOY
40
30
+2.9% (2013)
+6.5% (2012)
20
2.9 2.7
-10
10
5.4
4.2
-20
0.6
0.6
: %YOY
9
-30
ASEAN4
31
2013
CLMV 1 2013
1 2014
: %YOY
8.0 8.2
5.4
5
4
7.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 7.7
80
70
60
50
4.1 4.2 4.1
30
3.3
40
20
10
-10
N/A
-20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
32
33
CLMV 2013
: %YOY
: %QOQ
45
12
10
35
25
6
4
15
-0.1
-5
-15
ASEAN4 2 2013 1 2014
-2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-4
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

17
1.6% 2

34
2014
GDP 2014
: %YOY
2013
2014 (F)
4.9
2.9
4.0
2.1
1.6
0.2
1.3
-0.3
-0.5
-2.8 -2.8
-6.6
GDP
*
: EIC
18
Outlook 1/2014 3 2.4%
2/2014
0.5%
2.1%
0.5%
12%YOY 2
4% 12%
23% 2 2013
( 35)
2014

35
: %YOY
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1Q2013
: %YOY
120
()
100
()
80
()
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
Jan-Feb 2014
: %YOY
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
1Q2013
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
Jan-Feb 2014
: EIC
19
2.8% 3.2% 2
13%

( 36)
... 2

( B OI)
6

( 37)
36
2014
: %YOY
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
3
2543 3
1Q2013
2Q2013
: EIC
20
3Q2013
4Q2013
Jan-Feb 2014
2/2014
37
: %YOY
30
20
: ( 50 = )
65
()
()
60
10
55
50
-10
45.0
-20
-40
34.4
36.7
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
-30
45
40
35
30
: EIC
21
2014 50%
70% 6.6% 2014 3
1) 2014 27%
2013 2014 ( 38) 2)
2014 3)
2015 2014

2014
38
6 2014
35.2%
: :
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2013
2014
2014 4 82%*
2014 3 70%*
37.3
2014 2 35%*
35.2
2014 1 15%*
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep
*
: EIC
22
39
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014 4 95%*
2013
2014
2014 3 70%*
50.5
49.2
2014 2 46%*
2014 1 22%*
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep
2/2014
2014 4%
2014 1.0%YOY ( 40)
2 40%
2.9% ( 41)
16% 12%
45%
4%

4% ( 44)
G3

20% 2
3
1 2

1 (
Box: )

4 ( 45)
23
1%
40
2014
:
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
2013
2014
17.5
17.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
2014 = -1.0%
: EIC
41
: %YOY
: %YOY
-1.0
2014 ( 1)
-0.3
-5.4
(
(
26%)
26%)
((12%)
12%)
5.0
-4.4
(10%)
(
10%) -5.2
((
5%)
6%)
2.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
((4%)
4%)
4.0
: EIC
24
2014 ( 1)
2.9
2013
6.0
-20.0
6.5
4.9
0.9
( 8%)
( 8% )
0.6
0.8
10%)
((
10%)
( 10%)
4.6
2.7
( 10%)
((10%)
10%)
1.3
(
10%)
(10%)
-6.0
2013
3.3
-6.3
-15.0
-1.3
-15.5
-5.9
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
: EIC
10.0
2/2014
42
:
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
2013
2014
17
16
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
2014 = -15.4%
: EIC
43

: %YOY
: %YOY
-15.4
-22.3
((20%)
20%)
0.3
2013
-6.3
((15%)
15%)
1.6
-15.0
-10.0
16.8
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
7.9
-2.7
-22.2
(
6%)
-2.4
( 6%)
-25.0
8.6
-8.2
( 6%) ( 6%)
13.2
-9.9
-20.0
-10.8
-15.6
(( 5%)
5%)
-4.3
2013
-10.9
-11.4
8%)
((6%)
3.4
-3.9
2014 ( 1)
((8%)
8%)
(14%) (14%)
( 9%)
( 11%)
-17.2
((16%)
16%)
-25.0
2014 ( 1)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
: EIC
25
2014
44
4%
6 44% 55% 2014

(%YOY)
2011-2013
10%
10%
9%
8%
4%
3%
2013
2014 ( 1)
-0.3
7
-1.0
2014F
3
5
1
6
0
3
-6
-6
-16
5
8
2013
2013
: EIC
45
:
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-8,000
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
-6,000
: EIC
26
2/2014
BOX:
2013
2014 15.4%
10%

6% ( 46)

75%
1 ( 47) 1
2013
46
2014
:
25
2013 = +0.3%
24
1 2014 = -15.4%
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
: %YOY 1 2014
(15%)
(4)
(15%)
(10)
(6%)
(22)
(5%)
(5%)
(3%)
6
(31)
(5)
: EIC
27
47
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
: %YOY 3
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
*: , , ,
: EIC
28
2/2014
2014 2.2% 1.3%

1) 2)
3)

6
( 48)
0.2%MOM 12
0.1%MOM
0.5%MOM
6
48
: %YOY
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
: EIC
29

0.25% 1.75%

1.75% 2014
30
2/2014
2014
32-33 Fed QE
2014 33

1.

2.

3.
0.25% 12 Fed

4 . SET Index 1,376.26 PriceEarnings Ratio (PER) 15.6

33
49
Fed QE
(USDTHB)
34
33.1
6 .. 2014
33
32
31
Fed QE
17-18 .. 2013
32.4
31 .. 2014
30
29
29.9 22 .. 2013
Fed Tapering
28
May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
: EIC Bloomberg
31

Fed QE
ECB

52 ECB
2014
1.30 1.35

50

(EURUSD)
1.45
1.393
18 ..
1.43
1.41
1.39
1.37
EURO STOXX
26%
1.35
1.33
1.31
1.29
18 .. 2014
1.377
31 .. 2014
1.27
1.25
May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
: EIC Bloomberg
32
2/2014
QQE
(Core Inflation) 2%
1.3%
QQE
5% 8%
10% 2015
QQE 2014 105 -110
51
QQE
(USDJPY)
110
108
106
104
QQE
1.4
4 .. 2013
102
100
98
96
103.2
31 .. 2014
94
92
90
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
: EIC Bloomberg
33
2015
2015

2015 3.5-4.0%
34
Bull - Bear:
BULL-BEAR:
(USD/)
()
2013
2012
2014F
2015F
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2F
Q3F
Q4F
WTI
94
94
94
106
97
98
99
93
94
91
94
95
93
89
Brent
112
113
103
110
109
109
108
105
105
104
105
106
104
101
: EIC Leading global houses ( 1 2014)
BULLs:

2
3%

(EIA)
2 18.8
1%YOY
2

2 12%

2 11.24 6%YOY

1.6
30%
50%
(LNG)

LNG
35-40%
36
2/2014
BEARs:
2
EIA 2 91.2
0.5%QOQ 1.4%QOQ
6
24%
Non-OPEC 2 13.2
10%YOY tight oil, shale oil
2014 1
2012
2 2014 EIA
Non-OPEC

2014 2.9
5
OPEC
2.3
1.4

P5+1 (
) 2014 1.4
1
EIC : BEAR

2

Non-OPEC

OPEC

(geopolitical risks)

37
In focus:

(Potential GDP
growth) 4.9% 2000-2007 3.5%
2008-2013

5 (2015-2019)
4.5-5%

3.5-4%
38
GDP
Potential GDP
capital
Total fac
tor prod
uc
Potential GDP
4.9%
3.5%
2008-2013
2001-2007
(Total factor productivity)
Capital s
tock
tivity
(Capital stock)
Human
or
Raw lab
2/2014
(Human capital)
(Raw labor)
(15-64 )

3.5-4% 5
(2015-2019)
4.5-5%
: EIC NESDB, CEIC, IMF, Barro-Lee, International Trade Center, UNESCO, US census, 39
World Economic Forum, . .
6 2.9% 2008-2013
2000-2007 5.1% ( 52)
(Subprime crisis) 2008
2009 14%
2011
GDP 4 2011 9%YOY
6
52
(Real GDP growth)

: %YOY
15
10
1986-1999 = 6.7%
2000-2007 = 5.1%
2008-2013 = 2.9%
5
0
-5
subprime
-10
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-15
: EIC
40
2/2014

(Potential GDP growth)
Potential GDP growth
Potential GDP
growth Actual GDP growth Potential
GDP growth 4 ( 53)

1) (Raw labor) ( 15-64 )

2) (Human capital)

3) (Capital stock)

4) (Total Factor Productivity: TFP) (efficiency)
(effectiveness)
53
()
: EIC
41
Potential GDP growth 3.5% 2008-2013 4.9% 2001-2007

( 54) 20012007
2011 TFP
Potential GDP growth TFP
1.7 percentage point TFP
2008-2013 (FDI)
2002-2004 Hard Disk Drive (HDD) Western Digital
Seagate TFP (
Box: Hard Disk Drive )
54
: Percentage point
4.9
0.8
0.5
3.5
1.0
0.7
0.4
2.7
1.4
1.0
2001-2007
2008-2013
5.1%
2.9%
: EIC CEIC, IMF Barro-Lee
42
2/2014
BOX: Hard Disk Drive
Hard Disk Drive (HDD) 2002-2004

2002-2004 16% 2003 18%
21
Hard Disk Drive (HDD) HDD Western Digital
(WD) 2002 Fujistu
2003 Hitachi Global Storage 2003
Seagate 1980 1999
2004 HDD 2 1)
2) HDD 2004
HDD

(Supply Chain) HDD
HDD 2002
( 55) HDD 0% 2001 18.6% 2009
1 18.8%
HDD
PC Notebook Tablet Solid State Drive (SDD)

SSD
Supply Chain SSD
HDD
TFP 2002-2004
43
HDD
55
2002
HDD
: (2000=100)
: % HDD
1200
18 19 18
HDD
15
1000
10
800
400
11
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
200
2007: 2
2009: 1 0.02 percentage point
: EIC CEIC International Trade Center
44
16
6 6
600
15
2/2014
4.5-5% 5
(2015-2019)
4 2015-2019 3.5-4%
3.6% ( 56)
3.5-4%
56
3.6%
Potential GDP
: Percentage point
3.5
0.7
3.6
0.1
0.4
0.4
1.7
1.4
1.0
2008-2013
1.4
2015-2019
: EIC UNESCO CEIC
45
Potential GDP growth 4.5-5% 2

US census bureau
UN 2018 ( 57)

0.1 percentage point 0.7-0.8 percentage point 10
5
57
Dependency ratio ASEAN

75
15-59
60-64
: %
Dependency Ratio ()
70
60
70
50
65
40
60
30
20
55
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
50
10
0
: (2010 = 1)
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
2077
2063
2036
2018
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
: %
: EIC UN US census
(TFP)

(crowding in effect)

Hard disk dirve
46
2/2014

World Economic Forum (WEF) ( 58)
3
58
: WEF ()
90
2007
78
80
66
70
40
40
47
38
78
66
60
50
2013
48
42
33
30
20
10
0
: EIC World Economic Forum (WEF)
47

1) (Institutions)
2006

2) (Infrastructure)

2006 7 10-30
(Mass
transit)

3) (Higher Education)
( 59)

59
5
: % GDP
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
: EIC UNESCO CEIC
48
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2/2014
3

TFP 1.4 percentage point 2015-2019
1.0 percentage point 2008-2013 2.7 percentage point

4-5% IMF 2015-2019
4.5% ( 60) 3.5-4%
3

5%
(vicious cycle)
Moodys 2015-2018 4.5%
49
3.5-4%
60
IMF
: %
2.9
4.5
2008-2013
2015-2019
4.4
2008-2013
2015-2019
5.9
2008-2013
2015-2019
5.1
6.2
2008-2013
: EIC IMF WEO April 2014
50
2015-2019
2/2014

(economic slack)
( 61)

4
61
GDP Potential GDP (Output gap)

: %
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12

GDP
GDP 2018 54.5% potential GDP 4.5-5% 56.6% potential GDP
3.5-4% ( 62)
(Output gap) 2014
51
62
GDP
: % GDP
60
58
Potential GDP = 3.5-4% ()
56
Potential GDP = 4.5-5%
56.6
54.5
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
: 1.2
: EIC (.) (.)

2018

Potential GDP growth 2015-2019 3.5-4%

52
Summary of
main forecasts
-1.6%
-2.0%
-0.9
1.7%
0.7%
2.50%
31.2
110
-0.3%
0.3%
-2.8
2.2%
1.0%
2.25%
32.7
109
% YOY
% YOY
USD bln
% YOY
% YOY
% p.a.
THB/USD
USD/bbl
1.7%
0.8%
2.25%
32.7
109
-1.0%
-7.9%
5.2
2.3%
-2.9%
2.9%
-0.3%
-0.5%
5.4%
1.4%
0.1%
5.2%
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
-4.5%
0.9%
-11.3%
-13.1%
-4.7%
0.2% -1.2%
4.9% 7.3%
-1.9% -6.3%
-2.8% -3.1%
1.3% -16.2%
8.3%
38.1%
53.6%
13Q4
0.6%
Actual
2013
13Q3
2.7%
2.9%
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
Unit
50.7%
10.3%
21.7%
17.0%
4.7%
2013
Share (%)
2.0%
1.2%
2.00%
32.0
108
-1.0%
-15.4%
6.5
0.5%
-2.7%
1.3%
-4.2%
0.5%
-9.8%
-10.1%
-8.7%
14Q1
-0.3%
2.2%
1.3%
1.75%
33.0
105
2.3%
-5.3%
-3.0
1.8%
-1.2%
0.6%
-1.6%
-3.0%
-12.0%
-12.3%
-10.6%
2.2%
1.4%
1.75%
33.0
105
5.0%
6.4%
0.6
2.1%
1.0%
2.6%
1.0%
-2.0%
-5.9%
-5.1%
-8.8%
2.3%
1.4%
1.75%
33.0
104
9.5%
19.6%
0.0
3.2%
5.0%
4.9%
2.7%
15.0%
16.0%
19.7%
3.1%
EIC forecast
14Q2 14Q3 14Q4
0.0%
2.0%
4.8%
2.2%
1.3%
1.75%
33.0
105
4.0%
0.8%
4.1
1.9%
0.6%
2.4%
-0.5%
2.1%
-3.6%
-2.8%
-6.6%
2.5%
1.5%
As of Mar-14
As of Mar-14
4.5%
3.0%
0.7
-0.5%
1.7%
0.3%
2.9%
BOT
2014
2.7%
2.4%
4.0%
3.3%
1.5
1.6%
1.4%
Consensus
2014
2014
2.8%
1.6%
For 14Q1, actuals are reported for Key rates, Export, Import and Oil prices.
Sources: EIC forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (Mar 2014), March 2014 Bank of Thailands Monetary Policy Report, and Foreign research houses.
Real GDP growth

Demand-side
Private consumption
Public consumption
Investment (GFCF)
Private investment
Public investment
Supply-side
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
External sector
Export of Goods (USD)
Import of Goods (USD)
Current account
Key rates
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Policy rate (RP-1D) (end period)
THB/USD (end period)
Oil prices Brent (period avg.)
Key indicators
EIC summary of main forecasts
2/2014
.
Chief Economist
. 2553 Chief
Economist
(EIC) .
.
(IMF),
, Booz Allen Hamilton

. (Kings Scholarship)
Harvard University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
. 20
Asia Society 2550
. Oxford Analytica

Citigroup London
(Oxford Thai Society, 2005-6) Oxford Initiative
.
. ( )

Citibank/FCO Chevening Scholarship
University of Oxford
.
. Assistant Professor of Economics
San Diego State University Journal of
International Money and Finance Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System
. ()
University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor

. U.S. Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) 4

. ( )

Rice
University

. ()

Columbia
University CFA CFA Institute
.

. ()
Policy
Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign World Bank
London School of Economics
Applied Economics and Management Cornell University
( )

()

()

( )

Finance Management Trainee

()
E-mail : eic@scb.co.th : +662 544 2953
Chief Economist
sutapa.amornvivat@scb.co.th
Strategy and Advisory

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Macroeconomics
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EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

EIC Online 2014F

Summary of main forecasts

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank Bank of America)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(U. of Michigan sentiment)

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

: Deutsche Bank , EIC CEIC

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Real GDP) (PMI)

: EIC CEIC, Bloomberg, Eurostat International Trade Centre

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC International Trade Centre

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Real GDP) (PMI)

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

2014 7.5% 7.7%

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Real GDP) (PMI)

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014

1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014

: EIC National Bureau Statistic of China, Bloomberg CEIC

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

7.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 7.7

4.1 4.2 4.1

ASEAN4 2 2013 1 2014

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Outlook 1/2014 3 2.4%

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

6 44% 55% 2014

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

2014 2.2% 1.3%

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Leading global houses ( 1 2014)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Total factor productivity)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Real GDP growth)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Potential GDP growth 3.5% 2008-2013 4.9% 2001-2007

: EIC CEIC, IMF Barro-Lee

BOX: Hard Disk Drive

Hard Disk Drive (HDD) 2002-2004

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC CEIC International Trade Center

: EIC UNESCO CEIC

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Potential GDP growth 4.5-5% 2