EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

Outlook
Quarterly / Jan 2012

2012
Bull - Bear: Oil prices

In focus
?
Summary main forecasts

Contributors
Sutapa Amornvivat
Pornthep Jubandhu
Pranida Syamananda
Witchuda Chummee
Phacharaphot Nuntramas
Tanakorn Limvittaradol

EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

27

January 2012

2012

Bull - Bear: Oil prices

In focus:

10

Summary main forecasts

15

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EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2012
2012
SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) GDP 4.5-4.7%

2012

2011
2011
3.5-4.0%
EIC
3.00% 2012

2011 2012
2.2% 2011 1.7%

1: 2012

2: 3
2012

: SCB EIC

: SCB EIC

January 2012

0.7%
2012


2012

(
PIIGS)

2012

Bloomberg

Standard & Poors
credit rating
European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
credit rating

2012 PIIGS
5.7 (
) 1 3 1.8

( Credit Default Swap CDS spread

)

Eurozone

3: PIIGS
2012

4: Credit Default Swap

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

EIC

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2011

6:
2009

2011
8%
2.2%



(S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index)

5:
: SCB EIC IMF

8%

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

1 5



100% GDP (
70% GDP 2008 )

2012

9% 2011 8% 2012

(Reserve Requirement Ratio)

EIC

1.7% 2012

2011

12 ( 2.5%
GDP) 2012 3 4

January 2012

EIC



2011

3.5
14.7%
2012 2.38

7: GDP

GDP 4.5-4.7% 2012

EIC GDP 2012
4.5-4.7%
5%

2012 2011

*
** GDP 4.5-4.7%
: SCB EIC

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2012 2011

(Headline deficit) 2011
2012 4 (
)



Primary deficit
( 8) Primary deficit 2012
1.3 ( 1.1% GDP) 2011
0.7 ( 0.7% GDP)

3.5
2012

2011
2012

8: 2012 2011

: SCB EIC

January 2012

3.00% 2012

(.)

( )

2012
2011

( 9)
3.54.0% (
3%
3.5%)
.
EIC 2012
3.25% 2011

9: 2012 2011

: SCB EIC

January 2012

BULL-BEAR: Oil prices

Oil price (USD/BBL)
(period average)
WTI
Brent

Q1
94
106

2011
Q2 Q3 Q4
102 90
94
117 112 110

AVG
95
111

Q1
100
109

Q2
104
112

Q3
107
116

2012F*
Q4 AVG
111 106
119 114

BULL
110
120

BEAR
101
110

* leading global houses

: Leading global houses (as of 12 January, 2012)

BULLs say:

ECB

2012
1.3


(embargo)



Hormuz
35%
20%

SCB EIC says :

BEAR

BEARs say:


2012
0.7%

non-OPEC 1
2012
OPEC


1.3 2 2012
spare capacity OPEC

2012

BULL-BEAR leading global houses BULLs BEARs

In focus:

January 2012

In focus:
?
1 3

position

10.5

10
5-6
2011
10.5
16% (YOY)





(export
ban)

1.5-2.0

(FOB prices)





2011 5-6
9 1

90% 3-4
60%

10

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

1:

5% (FOBprices)

650

600

2: 2012

10.5

%YOY

9.0

550

33.3%

500

6.7

7.0

7.0
6.7

4.3%

450

350

300

400

Jan10

Apr10

Jul10

Oct10

Jan11

Apr11

Jul11

4.5
3.8
3.1

2.1

3.8
3.3
3.0

2010

2011

2012F

3.9

4
2
(USDA) 2012
2012 7
33% 2011
9-10 5
1 3
22% 2012

18.4%
26.7%
6.1%

Oct11

: SCB EIC
(FAO) USDA

11

4.0

: SCB EIC World Market & Trade,

USDA

3:
1 5
(marketshare)
:

2011

2012F

100%= 34.8

: SCB EIC
USDA

January 2012

2
450

85%

25%

4:

2010/11
:
779
680

592

589

862

616

448

443

427

: SCB EIC
(FAO) USDA

12

EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

2012
2012

13

Summary
main forecasts

January 2012

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

SCB EIC summary main forecasts

Key indicators
Real GDP growth
Demand-side
Private consumption
Public consumption
Investment (GFCF)
Private investment
Public investment
Supply-side
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
External sector
Export growth excl. gold (USD)
Import growth excl. gold (USD)
Current account
Key rates
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Policy rate (RP-1D) (end period)
THB/USD (period average)
THB/USD (end period)
THB/EUR (end period)
THB/JPY (end period)
THB/CNY (end period)
Oil prices WTI (period average)
Oil prices WTI (end period)
International tourists

% YOY

2010
7.8%

Actual
11Q1 11Q2
3.2%
2.6%

51%
10%
21%
16%
5%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

4.8%
6.4%
9.4%
13.8%
-2.2%

3.3%
1.8%
9.3%
12.6%
-1.4%

2.7%
1.0%
4.1%
8.6%
-9.9%

2.4%
1.1%
3.3%
9.1%
-10.9%

0.8%
4.0%
-6.1%
-9.6%
7.0%

2.3%
1.9%
2.6%
5.0%
-4.7%

4.1%
4.4%
10.2%
11.4%
6.1%

8%
41%
51%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

-2.3%
13.9%
5.1%

7.6%
1.7%
3.6%

6.7%
-0.1%
4.5%

-0.9%
3.1%
4.3%

-1.0%
-4.0%
-0.7%

3.0%
0.2%
2.9%

4.0%
5.2%
4.1%

% YOY
% YOY
USD bln

29%
35%
14.8

24%
30%
5.9

25%
24%
1.4

26%
28%
3.4

4%
5%
0.0

19%
21%
10.7

13%
18%
3.1

9%
12%
6.6

7.9%
11.7%
-1.7

% YOY
% YOY
% p.a.
THB/USD
THB/USD
THB/EUR
THB/100JPY
THB/CNY
USD/bbl
USD/bbl
%YOY

3.3%
1.0%
2.00%
31.7
30.1
39.8
36.2
4.5
79.4
89.2
12%

3.0%
1.5%
2.50%
30.5
30.3
42.6
37.2
4.6
93.5
102.8
15%

4.1%
2.4%
3.00%
30.3
30.5
43.9
37.9
4.7
102.2
96.3
52%

4.1%
2.8%
3.50%
30.1
30.4
41.9
39.6
4.8
89.7
85.6
28%

4.0%
2.8%
3.25%
31.0
31.2
41.0
40.1
4.9
92.5
94.0
-22%

3.8%
2.4%
3.25%
30.5
31.2
41.0
40.2
4.9
94.9
94.0
14%

3.5-4.0%
2.5-3.0%
3.00%
30.8
30.0-31.0
39.1
41.8
5.0
101.8
108.0
5.0%

3.5%

3.5%
2.5%

as of Jan-12

as of Oct-11

2010
Share (%)

Unit

Source: Consensus Economics, Bank of Thailand; SCB EIC forecasts

SCB EIC forecast

11Q3 11Q4
2011
2012
3.5% -(2-3)% 1.0-2.0% 4.5-4.7%

Consensus
2012
4.1%

BOT
2012
4.1%

3.2%

3.7%
4.9%

8.1%
8.8%
12.2%

15

SCB Economic Intelligence Center

()

Chief Economist
sutapa.amornvivat@scb.co.th
(662)544-6540

pornthep.jubandhu@scb.co.th
(662)544-3066
phacharaphot.nuntramas@scb.co.th
(662)544-4294
amornrat.kritsophon@scb.co.th
(662)544-6413
pranida.syamananda@scb.co.th
(662)544-2705

vithan.charoenphon@scb.co.th
(662)544-2478

witchuda.chummee@scb.co.th
(662)544-1644
tim.leelahaphan@scb.co.th
(662)544-5684
tubkwan.homchampa@scb.co.th
(662)544-6546
tanakorn.limvittaradol@scb.co.th
(662)544-6103

EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

27

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