,

21-23 2004

2010

,

21-23 2004

2010
3

 7
2010, .
:
, ,
,
,

-.
,
21-23 2004.

, ,

,
.
,

.

.

.
, , ,


.


1 : ........................................................................................ 11
2 : .......................... 15
2.1 15
2.2 .................................................................................. 16
2.3 .............................................................. 17
2.4 ............................ 19
2.5 ..................................................................... 20
2.5.1 - ....................................................................................... 20
2.5.2 21
2.5.3 .................................................................................................. 21
2.6
.......................................................................................................................... 22
2.6.1 ..................................................................................................... 22
2.6.2 ................................................................................................... 23
2.6.3 ........................................................................................................... 24
2.6.4 ................................................... 25
2.6.5 ........................................................................ 26
2.7 ................................................................ 28
2.7.1 .................................................................... 28
2.7.2 ....................................................................................................... 29
2.7.3 .............................................................................. 30
2.7.4 ............................................. 31
2.8 .................................................................................. 32
2.9 - .... 34
3 : ............................................................ 39
3.1 ...................................................................................................... 39
3.2 ........ 40
3.3 ...... 41
3.4 ........................................................ 41
4: 21-22/1/2004....................................... 47
4.1 ................................................................................................................ 47
4.2 .............................................................................. 48
9

4.3 ......................................................................................... 48
4.3.1 1 .................................................................................................................... 48
4.3.2 2 .................................................................................................................... 55
4.3.3 3 .................................................................................................................... 71
4.4 ...................................................................................... 79
4.5 SANDERS AND GYAKUM................................................................. 80
4.6 ............................................................................................................... 81
4.7 ............................................................ 97
4.8 .................................................... 105
5: - ................................................ 135
5.1 .135
5.2 .....137
..141
.144
...145
ABSTRACT....147

10

, .
, ,
, ,

.
, , ,
.
,

, ,
. ,

.

.
,
(extra-tropical)
.
, ,

.


.
, ,
.
, ,
. ,
11

 ,
.
, (static instability),
.
, ,
.
, ,
, ,
.

, ,
,

, .
.

.
,

.


,
.

, .
(case
study). ,

,
. 21
22 2004
.
12


( 2006, Lagouvardos et. al 2007, Pytharoulis 2008).
,
. : , ,
, , , ,
, , .
, .


. ,
.
1000hPa, 925hPa, 850hPa, 700hPa, 500hPa 300hPa.

Sanders and Gyakum (1980)
.

.

. -

12 12
.

300hPa .

850hPa
80%, 400hPa.
1.5PVU

,
, ,
80%, v
.
13

14

2.1

(extra-tropical)

.
,

.
.

. Tor Bergeron
(extra-tropical) , 1
hPa/h 24 .
60. Sanders Gyakum(1980) ,
Bergeron 1980 ,

.
24 hPa/h 24
60,
sin/sin60o
24 .

p sin 60

Bergeron, p
24 sin

24 . Sanders
Gyakum (1980)
1 Bergeron=24sin()/sin(60o)
24h. 1 Bergeron 28hPa/(24h)
12hPa/(24h) 25.

15

 Sanders and Gyakum(1980)

, .

0.71hPah-1 0.75hPah-1 24
(Karacostas and Flocas,1983)
.
Sanders (1986)
: 1-1.2 Bergeron, 1.3-1.8 Bergeron, >1.8
Bergeron.

. (Extra-tropical)
-
30. 500-2500km
, 10km.
, 10hPa
, 10m/sec ,
10, 10cm/sec.
, .
.

.
, .
.

2.2
Cohen (1996) .
:

,

. ,
16

 .
.
, .

,
.
.
,
.
.

.
.
80
.
.

2.3

.
30,
.
, Sanders
and Gyakum (1980).
,
.
,
.
Yoshida and Asuma (2003)
224 ,
,
17

 35N. :

Okhotsk,

.

(110 224 Yoshida et al.),

(50 42

Yoshida et al.) 5 1994 1999,
202 3 22
. 14 5
,
Okhotsk.
Okhotsk, .
6,25%
. 93,75%
,
.

, Lim and Simmonds(2002)

- .


.

,
.
,
,
.

18


,
(Lim and Simmonds,
2002). -,
50 .
.

,
.
, Sanders and Gyakum (1980) Yoshida et al.(2003)
,
:
,


.

, -,
(Floca, 1990).
21-22 2004,
.
.
.

2.4
24 48h
. .

.
,
, .

19

 .
,
.
.
.


.

300, 500,700 850hPa
.
(Karacostas and Flocas,1983).
2.5
,

,
.
.
2.5.1 -
-.
.
. ,
( Cohen, 1996).

( . ,2010)
- .

.

250W/m2

.
.
20

2.5.2
.

.

( Cohen, 1996).

,

.
,
.
.
,
.(Gyakum,1983)
2.5.3

,
.

.
.
(Cione et
al.1993) .

.
, .
.

.

.
21

 .
.
,
, .


,
.
2.6

.
2.6.1

.
, ,
.
Roebber (1984)
,

, .
Gyakum(1983). Rogers and Bosart(1986)

. Reed and Albright(1986)
,

(ridge)
(trough).
,
.

22

Mullen and Baumhefner(1988)

.
Cione et al.(1993)

0,56
.

45%-50%

Lim and Simmonds(2002)

(SST gradient)
,
. Sanders and Gyakum(1980)

(SST) 12h .
SST (Katsafados et al., 2010,NHESS).
2.6.2

(Static
instability).
.
, ,

( , 2004).
,
,
.

,

.
,
.
. .

.
23



(Sanders and Gyakum,1980),

.
Kuo and Reed (1988)

.
.
2.6.3

.
. Sanders(1986)

500hPa, ,
. Gyakum (1990)
500hPa .
.

.

500hPa
(Sanders and Gyakum, 1980; Sanders, 1986).

, (trough) (Huo et al.1994).

(Potential Vorticity). Gyakum(1983)
(PV) .
Hoskins et al.(1985),
PV , ,

PV,

24


, .
PV

.
PV ,
.

PV
.
PV , ,
.

, PV
(Hoskins et al. 1985).
PV
. .
.

19 1981 (Floca, 1990).
PV ,
.
Lagouvardos

et al.(2007)

PV (PV inversion technique)

PV .
PV , ,
12
.
.
.
2.6.4

.
25

 , 500hPa
, (trough) .
(trough) ,
Sanders and Gyakum(1980)
78%, 13%, 6%
2%.

,
.

(trough)
,
.
(trough) (Strahl and Smith 2001).
,

. 12 48
.
(trough)
500hPa.
(trough)
500hPa .
2.6.5
(divergence)
.

(trough) ,
.
.


( , 2004).
,
26

 . .

.

. ,
,
.
.
.

(Ahrens, 2008).

(Businger et al.2004).

(Jacobs et al.2004).

27

2.7

.
,
, ,
.
2.7.1
Davis and Emanuel(1988)


, .
Chen and Osso(1986)

. ECMWF global grid point model
4 : 1) CON. . 2) NLH.
. 3) NSH. . 4). NSLH.
.
CON. NLH
.
Kuo and Reed(1988) ,
,
.
, ,
, .

,
, (Lupo et
al. 1991),
,
.
,
,

28

.
,
.
.
Huo et al.(1994) Chen and Osso(1986),
(NLH)

(CON). NLH
CON.
12
40% .

. NSH Chen and Osso(1986)
18% .
.
, .

NLH NSLH

. Lupo et al.(1991)
.
Karacostas and
Flocas(1983)

.
.
2.7.2

(Danard and Ellenton,1979).

. C D ,
.
Ekman,
,
,
29

.
.
2.7.3
,

.
Nuss(1989)

.
, ,

.
Kuo et al(1991)
7 .
Gyakum and Danielson(1999)

.

.
.


, .

(Gyakum and Danielson,1999).
Lagouvardos et al. (2007)
.

.
Pytharoulis (2008) ,

.
.
30

 .. (2010)
,

.
.

, .

2.7.4
Uccelini(1984) 3
. O
,
,
.

, (cold conveyor
belt). .

.

. 3

3 .

.
(2006),
,

.

, ,
. 4, 2 2
31

 , 3 ,


.

, ,
.

( , 2005).
2.8

4 (Cohen, 1996):
, 700hPa, .

, , 500hPa
, .
.
(Cohen, 1996): Danard and
Ellenton(1979)
.

.
.

.

,

.
,
32

 .
. ,
(Gyakum,1983).

(Sanders,1986).


(Cohen, 1996). Davis and Emmanuel(1988)


, .
Nuss(1989)
.
, ,

.
(Kuo and Reed,1988)

.
.
Kuo and Reed(1988)

.

.
, ,
/ .


(Cohen, 1996). :
- 500hPa,
.
3 .

33

 ,
.
Uccelini et al.(1984) 3
.
.

.
.
.
Farrel (1984)
,
.


.
,

.

.

. Uccelini et al.(1987)

, ,

.
(Lupo et
al., 1992).
2.9 -

34

 .
.
Sanders and Auciello(1989)
NGM model. 4 6
. :

500hPa 17x10-5

48 .

30

48 .

.. 32 45

110 250

300hPa 550 .

NGM 990hPa

48 38 45 .. 55 75 ..
1990 ,
North Carolina State University
NWS. ASCII, Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification
Index,
, ,
Carolina
Virginia. 38 N 32 N 79 W 72 W
Cione et al. (1993,1998).

,
1 31 . ,
,
(CAO). CAO (cold air outbreak)
,
12 .
35

 o (domain) 48 CAO
6 .

: Hatteras
Wilmington NC CAO,
,
Hatteras Wilmington NC.
, PSBI, (Pre-Storm
Baroclinicity Index), (Cione et al., 1998), PSBI = (SSTgs - Avg Ta)/mean
GS-to-land distance (WILM and HAT), SSTgs
, Avg Ta
Hatteras Wilmington NC
CAO mean GS-to-land distance (WILM and HAT)
Hatteras Wilmington NC.
PSBI
Cione et al. (1993),
ASCII ( hPa (12 h)-1) PSBI,
( 24 ) .

( ),
116 1982-1990 (Cione et al. 1993),
PSBI C/10km ( ).
PSBI 1,7 C/10km, ASCII
(domain) .
1 1,7 C/10km, ,
PSBI 1 C/10km, ASCII
. ASCII (domain)
,

36

12

48.

ASCII

. 1994 1996,
ASCII, (Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index),
NWS Raleigh-Durham (RAH) 10 .
ASCII
30%
. Jacobs et al. (2004)
ASCII,
. 1991-2002,
20 1982 2002
231 .
. , Cione et al. (1993),
r
0,55 30%
. 70%
.
500hPa,
111 115 1991-2002,
37

 . 500hPa
19 x 10-5 s-1 "strongly forced"
(24 ), 15x10-5 s-1 19x10-5 s-1
"moderately forced" (44 ),
15 x 10-5 s-1 "weakly forced" (43
).
, 111
1991 2002, PSBI -15.1, -10.3 -6.1
, , .
0.84, 0.86 0.59.
(moderately forced bin) 9hPa/12h 74%
. (strongly
forced bin), 11hPa/12h, 0.84 71%
.
.
.
7 hPa/12h, 0.59
35 % .
.
,
500hPa .
(bin)
.

38

3.1

.
: = ,
(Holton,1992; Holton 2004; 2005):

, , =(

).
.

.

.
: = ,

=( ).
.

,
: = 2 sin = ( ). =+f
:

+ .

39

( + ) = 0

( + ) .

3.2

(, 2005)

( + ) = ( + )

D=

, K=

S=

( + ) = ( + ) + . D

(divergence term), (tilting

or twisting term) S (solenoidal term)

.
K
(,2005),

, . S

.
. D>0
,

( + ) < 0.

. D<0,
,

40

( + ) > 0

3.3

.
Poisson: =

1000

( , 2004). Z
Poisson :
= +

1 1

(1000 )
=

dP=-gdz P=R a T, :

d =

=
+

=-

. :

= ( )

< d , ( )>0,

> d , ,

>0 , .

=0 .

<0

3.4

(European Centre for Mediumrange Weather Forecasts, ECMWF). 0.5,
12
: 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100 70 hPa.
(6) . (u), o (v),
(Z), (...),
(T), (), (potential
vorticity, PV),

41

 ECMWF (initialized)
(4D Variational Analysis) ECMWF (1992).
:

Slp

HPa

10-5s-1

Fi

m2/s2

m/s

m/s

RH

Pa/s

PV

PVU=10-6m2s-1deg Kgr-1

Div

s-1

GRIB (ECMWF, 1999).

wgrib,
(National Center for Environmental
Prediction, NCEP) ....
GRIB (GRIdded Binary) , ,

format

. GRIB
2-D (lon,lat) 4-D (.. u
= f(lon,lat,level,time)).
(3-D (lon,lat,level)
).
GrADS (Grid Analysis and
Display System) IGES (Institute of Global Environment and Society) COLA
(Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies). T GrADS
,
,
. GrADS
grid . GrADS format ,
(binary, stream or sequential), GRIB ( 1
2), NetCDF, HDF ( 4 5), BUFR (
). GrADS
Internet.
GrADS 5 :
( , ,
42

) grids.
5-D
(data descriptor file).

, .txt format.

. ^
.
9.999e20. 101 grid points Y
15 0.5 81 X 0 0.5, 20
00 20 2004 6 12
(1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100 70hPa).
Tprs.
.

GrADS grids ,
, gaussian, (variable resolution).

.
FORTRA .
,
43


.
GrADS .
, C:> MS-DOS
. GradsDODS.dll
.
t.ctl 850hPa
13 ,

( GrADS),
850hPa 13. ,
GradsDODS.dll 255
295 5.

44

45

46

21-22/1/2004
4.1
21-22 2004
.
(2006). ,
Lagouvardos et al. (2007)
. ,
Pytharoulis (2008)
. ,
.
,
output GrADS, ,
- (Hovmoller),
. (),

.
21/1/2004 1200UTC
1000hPa.

22/1/2004 1200UTC
.
24hPa 24h
.
.
,
.

47

 ,
.

4.2
.

<< >> 20/1/2004
00:00UTC 21/1/2004 06:00UTC, 1
6.

. 21/1/2004 12:00UTC
22/1/2004 12:00UTC, 7
11.
,
. 22/1/2004 18:00UTC ( 12),
,
24/1/2004 18:00UTC ( 20).
4.3


850hPa, 700hPa,500hPa 300hPa.
4.3.1 1
20/1/2004 0000UTC.

1015hPa,
55-20 995hPa.
1000hPa 285,

48

288.
44 .
850hPa
,
.
1420gpm, 1440 gpm , 1460 gpm 1480 gpm
. , 276,
, 278.
280.
700hPa 850hPa
.
2940gpm, 3000 gpm .
, .
,
44 30 (trough).
268.
, 266,
.. 34 270.
500 hPa
.
5450 gpm, 5500gpm,

( 1).

49

 1: (gpm) 500hPa 20/1/2004 0000UTC

. 250
.
245,
.
300hPa 1
.
8900gpm, 9050 gpm .
, .
,
. 8900gpm
,
,
. 300hPa
.
222 225 .
20/1/2004 0600UTC .

,
.
50

 27-5 1008hPa.
1000hPa .
850hPa
1410gpm . 1440gpm
38 39.
278,
280.
700hPa
.
266, .. 44,
..
41, . 270
.. 34
.
500 hPa 5400gpm 5500 gpm
.
.
44 ,
.
249 252.
300hPa
.
.
, 20/1/2004 1200UTC,

53-25 ,
1006hPa 1010hPa.
.
30-7E.
288.
850hPa
1380gpm 1410gpm.
,

51

 .
280, 278.
700hPa
.
,
- .
2900gpm.
, 270
.
500hPa .
5400gpm 5500 gpm
.
,
( 2).
2. 250
.
.

2: (gpm) 500hPa 20/1/2004 1200UTC

300hPa
.
.
52

8850gpm. 222 .
.
20/1/2004 1800UTC
52-27
1003hPa 1008hPa.
31-7. 1000hPa
, 44
.
850hPa ,
.
1340gpm 42.

278. 274,
, , 280
284 32.
700hPa
.
2880gpm 2970gpm .
,

30-5 262.
500hPa

5350gpm ,
30-5
5300gpm. 250 .


300hPa
.
8800gpm 9050gpm . 225
.
21/1/2004 0000UTC 52-30.

53

.,
285.
850hPa 1340gpm
.. 41. 850hPa
276. 700hPa 2850gpm ..
266
, 270
.
500hPa
.
500hPa ,,
300hPa ,
,
. 222
.
21/1/2004 0600UTC 52-33
.
1000hPa 285 , 282
.
850hPa
1340gpm
, .. 39,
.
273 .
700hPa
. 270 700hPa
, 264 ,
262 .
500hPa
5300gpm (trough)
, 30-8 .
. 245
.

54

 300hPa
. 219 .
30-35 5-10.
4.3.2 2

. 21/1/2004 1200UTC
52-35.

12
.
1000hPa 33.517.5. 1001hPa
.

1000hPa 40 42,
285 40 276 42.
288.
925hPa, 3,
, ,
.
10m/sec.
30m/sec,
.

55

 3: 925hPa 21/1/2004 1200UTC

4: 500hPa 21/1/2004 1200UTC

5: 300hPa 21/1/2004 1200UTC

6: 925hPa 22/1/2004 0000UTC

7: 925hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC

8: 500hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC

9: 925hPa 22/1/2004 1200UTC

10: 500hPa 22/1/2004 1200UTC

56

 11: 300hPa 22/1/2004 1200UTC

850hPa
. -, 1340gpm
. 1320gpm
.
270 273,
273. ,
276,
279.
700hPa.
264 .
500hPa
-,
30-10
. .
245 , 250
255 .
( 12)
500hPa 7,
21/1/2004 1200UTC.
.
.
-
.

57

 12: (gpm) 500hPa (hPa) 21/1/2004 1200UTC

4
500hPa. ,
,
50m/sec. ,


.
300hPa
. 8700gpm
9000gpm. 219 . 222
. 225
. 5
80m/sec.
, ,
90m/sec.
.
13 21/1/2004 1800UTC
, 35-20,
994hPa.
58

 6hPa
6 . 998hPa,
.
. 1008hPa
, 1006 1004hPa
1002hPa . 1000hPa
.
8hPa .

13: (gpm) 500hPa (hPa) 21/1/2004 1800UTC

1000hPa
,
276 279,
282, 285
288.
925hPa
30m/sec,
,
.

59

 850hPa
35-20
1280gpm, 1300gpm
,
.
267 273,
.
700hPa .
2790gpm , .
273 ,
261 .
15,
,
12 15.
500 hPa
.


.
, ,
.
5250 gpm 5300gpm
5350gpm.
6.

. 7
500hPa,
,
.
60m/sec.
.
300hPa .
,
. 222 .
60

 27-35 12-20.
,
, .
22/1/2004 0000UTC ( 14) ,
, 37-23 986hPa.
.
, 990hPa.
992 994hPa,
1000hPa . 1000hPa
990hPa.

14: (gpm) 500hPa (hPa) 22/1/2004 0000UTC

8 hPa/ 6h , 6
994hPa 986hPa.
1000hPa .
273. ,
291.
925hPa ( 6)
.
61

,
. ,

.
,
.
850hPa

37-22.
1230 gpm. ,
1260gpm,
1290gpm.
850gpm ( 14 15) ,
850hPa,

. 850hPa .

15: (gpm) 850hPa 22/1/2004 0000UTC

21/1/2004 1800UTC 22/1/2004 0000UTC

850hPa.
50gpm ( 1280gpm 1230gpm).
62

 , 9
.
264, ,
282.


.
9, 22/1/2004 0000UTC,
700hPa ( 16)
37-22
2730gpm, 2760gpm
.
21.
700hPa
850hPa.

16: (gpm) 700hPa 22/1/2004 0000UTC

261 , ,
270, 273
. ,
.. 17

63

 500hPa (trough)

. 5200 gpm,
5250gpm 5300gpm.
,
-.
(
14). 245.

.
8.

.
-
.
300hPa
, 8600gpm
8800gpm .
25.

.
.
.
22/1/2004 0600UTC 17
26
, ,
984hPa.
990hPa 1000hPa.

2hPa.

64

 17: (gpm) 500hPa (hPa) 22/1/2004 0600UTC

1000hPa ,
273 285
288 . 925hPa ( 7)
.
, .
. ,
,
.
850gpm
38-25 ,
, 1170gpm, 60gpm
, 18.

. 1230gpm 1260gpm
. 850hPa
.

65

 18: (gpm) 850hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC

850hPa ,
264
276 279.
700hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC ( 19).
700hPa
, ,
.
38-25 2700gpm.
30 gpm.
.
258, 261
267.

66

 19: (gpm) 700hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC

500hPa
5150gpm
5200gpm.
.
17 .


245.
250 . ( 8) -
,
60m/sec.
.
300hPa .
8600gpm
.
8700gpm.
30.
500hPa . 90m/sec.

67

 22/1/2004 1200UTC ( 20)

.
37.5-26.5.
976hPa.
8hPa
.
972hPa
.

20: (gpm) 500hPa (hPa) 22/1/2004 1200UTC

H ,
, 282 285
. 3 . 925hPa
( 9) .
- .

40m/sec.
850hPa
, 37.5-26.5 1150gpm.
68

 20gpm.
1200gpm
1250gpm. 20 21
850hPa .

21: (gpm) 850hPa 22/1/2004 1200UTC

850hPa
270
273 .
700hPa ,
38-26 2650gpm ( 22).
2700gpm
2750gpm. 258
,
261 267.

69

 22: (gpm) 700hPa 22/1/2004 1200UTC

500hPa o .
,
5150gpm ( 20).
. 245

240 245,
245 250.
( 10)
.
.
.
300hPa 8600gpm
. 222
, . 225
. 228 , ,
231 . ( 11)

. .

70

4.3.3 3
22/1/2004 1800UTC.
38
30. .
985hPa, 995 hPa 1005hPa.
, 22/1/2004 1800UTC
. 270 282
.
850hPa
, 1150gpm. ,
1200gpm , 1250gpm
1300gpm . H
. 261 270
.
700hPa 3828, 2650gpm.
, 2700gpm
.
500hPa
.

46-22 5100gpm.
243,

246. 500hPa
. .
,

.

300hPa

8550gpm ,
.

.
.
71

 36-38 26-31
222 231 .
13, 23/1/2004 0000UTC
42-33
985hPa, .
1000hPa .
267, 270

279.
(
23). 1000hPa
12
.

23: (K) 1000hPa 23/1/2004 0000UTC

72

24: 850hPa 23/1/2004 0600UTC

 25: (K) 700hPa 23/1/2004 1200UTC 26: 500hPa 23/1/2004 1200UTC

27: (K) 300hPa 24/1/2004 1800UTC

850hPa 1150gpm
43-32, 1250gpm ,
1300gpm .
.
258 .
700hPa 2650gpm
43-31, 2700gpm
, 2750gpm
73

 . 260,

270.
500hPa ,
38
.
44- 22 . 500hPa
240. , , ,
243.
, , ,
,
- 243 249.
300hPa 8500gpm
. .
. 222
225 .
23/1/2004 0600UTC.
44 34
.
. 1010hPa
1005hPa. .
850 hPa ,
1170gpm , ,
850hPa
1280gpm 1320gpm .
14.
258 269 .
850hPa ( 24),
18
6 1000hPa.
700hPa 2700gpm
,
700hPa
2750gpm 2800gpm . 252
74

 255,
258.
500hPa
5100 gpm. 240
, . 300hPa
8500gpm
. 222 ,
225 .
23/1/2004 1200UTC ,
990hPa,
270.
.
850hPa
1200gpm.
1350gpm 1290gpm .
850hPa . 267.
700hPa

2750gpm
. 252
, 255 .

700hPa ( 25).
24
, 18
850hPa 12
1000hPa.
500hPa

5150gpm, 240
. ( 26).
500hPa 24
.

75

 300hPa 15.
222 225
.
23/1/2004 1800UTC 995hPa
.
1010hPa. 1000hPa
.
850hPa
. 1230gpm.
260 267 .
700hPa . 2750gpm
,
2800gpm. 254 ,
258.
500hPa 5150gpm

,
5200gpm
5250gpm. 240
,
,
.
243, ,
246, 249.
300hPa
,
300hPa 8550gpm
8700gpm . 219 222
.
24/1/2004 0000UTC 1000hPa,
.
. 270
267 .

76

 850hPa
1230gpm. 1320gpm.
.
700hPa 2730gpm,
.
500hPa .
5150gpm ,

240

38 40 33 34.
.
300hPa
. .
24/1/2004 0600UTC 31
1005hPa.
.
850hPa 1280gpm.
.
700hPa .
2730gpm
2760gpm 2790 gpm.
255 261 .
500hPa . 240
.
243,
246.
300hPa .
.
219 .
24/1/2004 1200UTC 30
1005hPa ,
1010hPa. ,
1005hPa.
. 270
.
77

 850hPa ,
29 1300gpm.
1320gpm
1340gpm . .
700hPa
2760gpm. 2790gpm
2820gpm .
.
500hPa . 240
.
300hPa . 222
.
24/1/2004 1800 UTC
. ,
34-22
1000hPa. 19.
850hPa
1340gpm 1320gpm ,

. .
700hPa 20 .
258 , 255
261 .
500hPa .
.
300hPa

.
8550gpm 8700gpm .
300hPa
.
220, 220,
218
27.
78

4.4
28
7, 21/1/2004 1200UTC ,
20, 24/1/2004 1800UTC.
, .
: 21/1/2004
1200UTC, 21/1/2004 1800UTC, 22/1/2004 0000UTC, 22/1/2004 0600UTC, 22/1/2004
1200UTC .
,
, .
22/1/2004 18UTC 24/1/2004 18UTC.
7 9 ( 1 3)
. 1 33.5, 2
35 3 37. 9 11 ( 3
5 ) .
. ,
.
.

.
.

,
6 .
. 8
12
.
8 12 ,
.

79

 28: 21/1/2004 1200UTC 24/1/2004 1800UTC

4.5 SANDERS AND GYAKUM

Sanders and Gyakum (1980)

.

1Bergeron, 1Bergeron=

24mb sin
.

24h sin 60 o

p sin 60 o

Bergeron,
24 sin

p 24
24 .
37
, 9,

80

22/1/2004 0000UTC, 1Bergeron

37
60

0.69/.

p=1000hPa-976hPa=24hPa.

p sin 60 o 24 60

=
1.45 Bergeron.
24 sin 24 37

. Sanders(1986)
1.45Bergeron . Sanders

.
4.6

.


.
.
,
.
.
,
,
.

1000hPa 200hPa
21/1/2004 1200UTC 22/1/2004 1200UTC.
7, 8,
9, 10
11. 106
10-6 s-1. ,
.

81

 29: (10-6s-1) 1000hPa

200hPa 21/1/2004 1200UTC 22/1/2004 1200UTC.

7 33.5
17.5 850hPa -12*10-6s-1.
500hPa .
200hPa 20*10-6 s-1.
42*10-6 s-1
70hPa. 8 35 20
850hPa .
-28*10-6 s-1. 400hPa ,
150hPa 12*10-6 s-1.
9 37 23
, 925hPa 20*10-6 s-1. 850hPa 400hPa
. 250hPa
32*10-6 s-1. 10
82

37 26 925hPa
, -20*10-6 s-1. 850hPa 48*10-6
s-1. 5 00hPa -60*10-6 s-1,
400hPa 52*10-6 s-1. 300hPa
41*10-6 s-1 200hPa
-30*10-6 s-1. 10
,
.
.
500 400hPa, 450hPa
.
9
. 11,
37.5 26.5
700hPa -48*10-6 s-1. 400hPa
, 250hPa
60*10-6 s-1,


.
30
, 200hPa
21/1/2004 1200UTC, 7
. 200hPa
29
( ).
.
200hPa.
,

83

 30: (hPa), (gpm) 200 hPa (10-6s-1) 200hPa

21/1/2004 1200UTC

8, 21/1/2004 1800UTC
29,
. 150hPa( 31)
.
,
.

150hPa.

84

 31: (hPa), (gpm) 150 hPa (10-6s-1) 150hPa

21/1/2004 1800UTC

22/1/2004 0000UTC, 9,
37 23,
250hPa 32*10-6 s-1 ( 32).

12, .
250hPa
.

85

 32: (hPa), (gpm) 250 hPa (10-6s-1) 250hPa

22/1/2004 0000UTC

22/1/2004 0600UTC 29
400hPa 52*10-6 s-1 . 33
, 400hPa
. ,
, .
.
.
300hPa,
.
.

86

 33: (hPa), (gpm) 400 hPa, (10-6s-1) 400hPa 22/1/2004

0600UTC

11
. 29
.
250hPa 60*10-6 s-1.
34
, .
,
,
,
36 43 28 30.

87

 34: (hPa), (gpm) 250 hPa (10-6s-1) 250hPa

22/1/2004 1200UTC

,
9, 10 11,
.
35 -
33.5 17.5, 7,
1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004
0000UTC 23/1/2004 0000UTC.
5 13, 2
12 ,
2 12
.
12 ,

88

 850hPa 600hPa. 12 (5)

750hPa 650hPa -30*10-6 s-1.
850hPa 700
hPa -20*10-6 s-1 -10*10-6 s-1, 7
-10*10-6 s-1 .
12 550hPa,
6 450hPa .

600hPa 450hPa
. 12
(9). (6)
200hPa 30*10-6
s-1, 1200UTC 10*10-6 s-1 .
1800UTC
,
850 600hPa 6 .
550 450hPa,
350 250hPa 10*10-6 s-1.

35: (10-6s-1) 1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004

0000UTC 23/1/2004 0000UTC 33.5 17.5

89

 22/1/2004 0000UTC
, 33.5-17.5 ,
800 550hPa 10*10-6 s-1 -50*10-6 s-1. 700hPa. H
550 450hPa.
. 0600UTC

850 600hPa . 600hPa ,
500hPa 30*10-6 s-1, 350
250hPa .
1200UTC,
, 300 150hPa
40*10-6 s-1 200hPa 1200UTC,
1800UTC. 1200UTC 450
300hPa, 500hPa. 700
500hPa 10*10-6 s-1 900
800hPa. 1800UTC 900 750hPa.
5 13 1000hPa 900hPa
.
8, 21/1/2004 1800UTC,
35 20. 36
850 hPa -20*10-6 s-1.
800 600hPa 600hPa .
550 450hPa ,
. , 6
1000 900 hPa. 800
600hPa 10*10-6 s-1 20*10-6 s-1 . 550 450hPa
. 400hPa , 300hPa
250hPa 40*10-6 s-1 . 1200UTC,
,
1000hPa 500hPa, 500hPa 250hPa
, .

90

 16: (10-6s-1) 1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004

0000UTC 23/1/2004 0000UTC 35 20

35 20 , 22/1/2004

0000UTC, 1000hPa 650hPa

30*10-6 s-1 925hPa. 600hPa ,
250hPa -30*10-6 s-1
500hPa. 0600UTC
21/1/2004 1800UTC,
. 900 800hPa -20*10-6 s1

. 800 500hPa 500hPa

. 300hPa
150hPa. 1200UTC,
, 35 20 1000hPa 600hPa
. , 600 500hPa
, 450hPa 400 300hPa
. 1800UTC
800 600hPa, 450 350hPa
.

91

 37 37-23
1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004 0000UTC
23/1/2004 0000UTC.
9, 22/1/2004 0000UTC, 37 .
, 29, 925hPa
-20*10-6 s-1, 850hPa 400hPa
. 300 200hPa
20*10-6 s-1. ,
, 37-23 1000hPa
900hPa, 900 800hPa 40*10-6 s-1 850hPa.
850hPa 500 400hPa
1200UTC. 700
600hPa, 350 300hPa -20*10-6 s-1,
250hPa

20*10-6 s-1. 1200UTC,

33.5 17.5, 37- 23

1000 850 hPa, 700
600hPa -20*10-6 s-1 , 500 hPa
400hPa 20*10-6 s-1. 300hPa .
, 0600UTC,
, 400hPa 850 500hPa , 350
200hPa .
500hPa 9, 850 400hPa.

92

 37: (10-6s-1) 1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004

0000UTC 23/1/2004 0000UTC 37 23

,
22/1/2004 0600UTC 500hPa,
350hPa, 900hPa. 850
750hPa , 300hPa, 40*10-6 s-1.
950 900hPa, 400hPa
250hPa. 1200UTC,
500 400 hPa
350 450hPa. 900, 850hPa.
750 650 hPa 40*10-6 s-1,
500 250hPa. 1800UTC 850hPa,
350hPa 250 hPa 150hPa. 800 400hPa
, 750 600hPa,
. 925hPa
-60*10-6 s-1.
38 37-26
1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004 0000UTC
93

 23/1/2004 0000UTC.
22/1/2004 0600UTC. 21/1/2004 0600UTC
650hPa 350hPa.
1200UTC 850hPa 450 hPa. 1800UTC
800hPa, 550hPa.
300
200hPa, 1000 900hPa. 900 800hPa ,
750 600hPa 500 350hPa
. 22/1/2004 0000UTC,
37-26, 700hPa,
400hPa.
, -30*10-6 s-1, 300hPa
50*10-6 s-1.
300hPa 6
,
.
600 450hPa ,
1200UTC -50*10-6 s-1 500hPa.
-20*10-6 s-1.
700hPa, 450 hPa.
-50*10-6 s-1 550 500hPa.
900hPa
700hPa 40*10-6 s-1.
450 250hPa
, 400 350hPa 50*10-6 s-1.
1200UTC, -10*10-6 s-1,
925hPa , 750hPa ,
,
60*10-6 s-1 850hPa.
500hPa .
. 500 300hPa ,
, 30*10-6 s-1. 300hPa , 300
250 200hPa 40*10-6 s-1. 1800UTC,

94

 , 37-26
1000 750hPa, 60*10-6 s-1 850hPa.
750hPa
500hPa. . 500 350hPa
. 350hPa 200hPa
-30*10-6 s-1 300 250hPa.

38: (10-6s-1) 1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004

0000UTC 23/1/2004 0000UTC 37 26

39 37.5-26.5
1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004 0000UTC
23/1/2004 0000UTC.
22/1/2004 1200UTC
. 1000
900hPa .
900 700hPa -50*10-6 s-1 850 800hPa.
650hPa , 500hPa
450 300hPa .
300 200hPa 30*10-6 s-1.
95

1200UTC, , 800 900hPa

-70*10-6 s-1.
700 600hPa, 650hPa.
450hPa.
. 250hPa 40*10-6 s-1.
1800UTC -40*10-6 s-1.
,
550hPa 250hPa 300hPa
. 22/1/2004 0000UTC ,
37-23, 37.5- 26.5,
450hPa .
400hPa
200hPa , 70*10-6 s-1 300hPa.
0600UTC 900 500hPa -50*10-6 s-1
700hPa. 500hPa.
,
400hPa 50*10-6 s-1. 200hPa .
1200UTC .
850 600 hPa -40*10-6 s-1.
550hPa.
500hPa 400hPa,
250hPa 50*10-6 s-1. 1800UTC,
,
,
550 350 hPa 50*10-6 s-1 400hPa.
350hPa
-60*10-6 s-1 250 hPa.

96

 39: (10-6s-1) 1000hPa 150hPa 21/1/2004

0000UTC 23/1/2004 0000UTC 37.5 26.5

4.7

r (relative vorticity)
2

.
(vorticity advection) VA=
m/s2.

300hPa
5, 21/1/2004 0000UTC, 12
.

, .
103. 40 5
300hPa
,
, ,
,
97

, 7m/s2.
300hPa.

5m/s2.

, , 4m/s2
3m/s2 .

40: (m/s2) (gpm) 300hPa

21/1/2004 0000UTC

21/1/2004 0600UTC,
, 41,
(trough)

, .
4m/s2.

(trough) .
98

 ,
4m/s2.
(trough)
,
.
10m/s2.

, .

, .
4m/s2.

41: (m/s2) (gpm) 300hPa

21/1/2004 0600UTC

1200UTC,
, 33.5 17.5,
300hPa, 42.
.

99


(trough).
, .
6m/s2.

.
,
.

.
16m/s2,
10m/s2.

.
33.5
17.5, .

.

100

 42: (m/s2) (gpm) 300hPa

21/1/2004 1200UTC

8, 35 20,
(trough)
,
, 43.

.
39 18 8m/s2.
. .
.

.
16m/s2.
(trough)
(trough) .

101

 43: (m/s2) (gpm) 300hPa

21/1/2004 1800UTC

22/1/2004 0000UTC, .
44
, ,
.
, ,
18m/s2
(trough),
3m/s2. .

102

 44: (m/s2) (gpm) 300hPa

22/1/2004 0000UTC

45
300hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC.

.
6m/s2 .
. 21m/s2
.
300hPa.
.
(trough)
, .

103

 45: (m/s2) (gpm) 300hPa

22/1/2004 0600UTC

22/1/2004 1200UTC,
, 46
,
,
,
,
,
.
16m/s2.

.

104

 46: (m/s2) (gpm) 300hPa

22/1/2004 1200UTC

4.8
PV (Potential Vorticity)
.

.

.

, ,
850hPa. PV
PVU, 1PVU=10-6m2s-1deg Kgr-1.
20/1/2004 0000UTC
6, 21/1/2004 0600UTC
0.5PVU
105

, ,
. 7 21/1/2004
1200UTC, , 47
1PVU
. 1PVU .

47: (PVU) 850hPa 21/1/2004 1200UTC

1800UTC
35 20, 48 850hPa
PV 1.8PVU.
1.2PVU,
0.3PVU.
PV 80%,
.

106

 48: (PVU) 80%

850hPa 21/1/2004 1800UTC

49 22/1/2004 0000UTC 850hPa PV

37-23. 3.5PVU.
0.5PVU.
, 80% .
22/1/2004 0600UTC ( 50)
1.5PVU
. 1PVU,
0.5PVU.
PV -0.5PVU.

107

 49: (PVU) 80%

850hPa 22/1/2004 0000UTC

50: (PVU) 80%

850hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC

108

 22/1/2004 1200UTC, 51,

, 850hPa
2PVU,
100%.
1PVU, 3PVU.

51: (PVU) 80%

850hPa 22/1/2004 1200UTC

,
, PV
, 12 2PVU, 13 3PVU,
1.5PVU 1PVU.
, 12
13 1PVU, 2.5
PVU.

,
.
400hPa,
109

 , PV

.
1.5 2PVU
, PV PV
.
6, 6 ,

4PVU.
0.5PVU, 1PVU.
21/1/2004 1200UTC, ,
PV
.
7PVU .
PV, 1PVU , 2PVU
.
1800UTC ( 52) PV
PV ,
3PVU,
.
7PVU
.
22/1/2004 0000UTC ( 53)
4PVU .
, .
6PVU. PV
16 0.5PVU.

110

 52: (PVU) 400hPa 21/1/2004 1800UTC

53: (PVU) 400hPa 22/1/2004 0000UTC

111

 0600UTC ( 54) PV

,
PV, 6PVU. ,
.
. PV 4.5PVU.

54: (PVU) 400hPa 22/1/2004 0600UTC

1200UTC , 55, PV

PV 6.5PVU,
. PV

.


.

112

 55: (PVU) 400hPa 22/1/2004 1200UTC

,
400hPa ( 56)
PV, PV
,
.
. 5.5PVU
.
15
36
4.5PVU .
16 5.5PVU .
18
2.5PVU.

113

 56: (PVU) 400hPa 22/1/2004 1800UTC

1.5PVU .

1.5PVU,
.
21/1/2004 0600UTC ( 57),
, 1.5PVU

,
250hPa.
250hPa 1.5PVU.
250hPa.
1.5PVU 300hPa,
.
.
21/1/2004 1200UTC ( 58),
, 1.5PVU, 650hPa.
PV
.
114

 .
33.5 ( 63),
14 . 58
1.5PVU ,
, 450hPa. .
400hPa.

57 58: (hPa) 1.5PVU

)21/1/2004 0600UTC )21/1/2004 1200UTC

21/1/2004 1800UTC ( 59)

1.5PVU 600hPa (
66) .
. 650hPa.
22/1/2004 0000UTC ( 60), 1.5PVU
.
550hPa, , 650hPa
. ( 69)
550hPa 60.

115

 59 60: (hPa) 1.5PVU

)21/1/2004 1800UTC )22/1/2004 0000UTC

22/1/2004 0600UTC ( 61)

1.5PVU
600hPa. 550hPa
650hPa.

( 72 61) 550hPa.
22/1/2004 1200UTC ( 62)
1.5PVU 600hPa
, 76.
1.5PVU 600hPa. 1800UTC
1.5PVU 600hPa , 23/1/2004
0000UTC .
18. 23/1/2004 0000UTC 24/1/2004
0600UTC 1.5PVU 600hPa
.

116

 61 62: (hPa) 1.5PVU

)22/1/2004 0600UTC )22/1/2004 1200UTC

7 11,
.
,
80%.
=

1000

,

P , Rd R d =
2.870 102 J/(kg*K) Cp .
7
33.5 ( 63).

L. ,
14,

PV

1PVU 550hPa, 2PVU 450hPa

. 1.5PVU 2PVU
. 2PVU

.
PV
850hPa

117

 80%.
.

PV 800hPa 1PVU
(80%).
11.5 17.5
. , 11.5 PV
650hPa , 90%,
,
850hPa 100%.

PV 1PVU 700hPa
90%. PV 700hPa
26 1PVU.
PV
80% 350hPa
PV 300hPa .
.
310 320 PV
400hPa 300hPa. ,
. 310 500hPa 320
250hPa. PV ,
. ,
, Wang and Rogers (2000),
.

118

63: 33.5 21/1/2004 1200UTC.

(PVU), (K)
80%.

L
64: 33.5 21/1/2004 1200UTC.
(PVU) (Pa/s).

64
.
119

 .
PV .
-5.5Pa/s 700hPa
PV 1PVU. PV ,
,
-4.5Pa/s 400hPa.
26
.
80%
63.
65
33.5 7,
v . v
,
(Wang and Rogers,2000). v m/s
65 5m/s. PV
v ,
PV .
16, ,
v 250hPa
40m/s, .

120

L
65: 33.5 21/1/2004 1200UTC.
(PVU) v (m/s).

66 21/1/2004 1800UTC
35.
20.
L.
14 PV . 2PVU
350hPa, 3PVU 300hPa.
80%.

80% 300hPa.

PV
550hPa 1PVU.
.
,
18 310
320.
.

121

 PV .
.

(Hoskins et al.1985, Wang and Rogers 2000) Gyakum (1990)
.

66: 35 21/1/2004 1800UTC.

(PVU), (K)
80%.

8, 67
PV ,
. -2.1Pa/s
500hPa 850 650hPa.
80% .
68 200hPa
PV 30m/s
PV 300hPa 250hPa
v -35m/s.

122

L
67: 35 21/1/2004 1800UTC.
(PVU) (Pa/s).

L
18: 35 21/1/2004 1800UTC.
(PVU) v (m/s).

9, 22/1/2004 0000UTC ,
37
123

37 23 ( 69). PV
17.5. 2PVU 450hPa 4PVU 350hPa.
PV
4PVU 2PVU 550hPa.
80%
300hPa.
14 17.5

,
. PV
320
330.
.
30 32 PV .
6 PVU, 2PVU
, 90% 80% .

69: 37 22/1/2004 0000UTC.

(PVU), (K)
80%.

124

L
70: 37 22/1/2004 0000UTC.
(PVU) (Pa/s).

70 ,
. -1Pa/s
PV ,
62.
PV 30 -2Pa/s.
. 1.5Pa/s 28.
71
PV 400hPa 250hPa,
.
PV v
-40m/s 400hPa 300hPa.

125

71: 37 22/1/2004 0000UTC.

(PVU) v (m/s).

22/1/2004 0600UTC
37 26. 37 ( 72)
L .
80% 850hPa .
80%.

19 PV . 2PVU
500hPa, 4PVU 450hPa, 6PVU 350 hPa,
300 250hPa , 8PVU.
,
17 27. 19
. 80%.
2PVU 350hPa, 4 PVU
300hPa, 6 PVU 280hPa 8 PVU 250hPa.
21 25,
PV ,
80% .
, 29 34
126

 80%.
30 32 PV .
290, 300 310 PV
, 320 .
320, 310 300 ,

PV . 290 300,
2PVU. 290
,
PV . PV
.
PV
.
290 300,
300 310 ,
925hPa, 290, 350hPa
310.

72: 37 22/1/2004 0600UTC.

(PVU), (K)
80%.

127


26
( 73). , 38
28, , PV . 1 PVU
800 hPa 28 2 PVU
600hPa 30.
.
300hPa 34
10PVU. 1 PVU 400hPa
9PVU 250hPa. PV
80% 800hPa .
.

38 44 250hPa.

, 39 10PVU.
.
41 600hPa 1PVU,
42 500hPa.
PV
. 290 32
750hPa, 300K 33
600hPa, 310K 36
400hPa.
.
.
. PV


.
,
.

128

L
73: 26 22/1/2004 0600UTC.
(PVU), (K)
80%.

L
74: 37 22/1/2004 0600UTC.
(PVU) (Pa/s).

74 PV
-1.5Pa/s 750hPa 600hPa,
129

 -1Pa/s 600hPa 400 hPa.

73,
80%.
28 30 -4Pa/s.
, 75,
v PV ,
28, 60m/s 300hPa.
74

300hPa .

L
75: 37 22/1/2004 0600UTC.
(PVU) v (m/s).

11, 22/1/2004 1200UTC,

37.5 26.5.
. ( 76)
.
19,
PV .

. 2PVU 600hPa,
130


.
19,

. 2PVU
400hPa 30. PV
200hPa. 24 29 .
PV 800hPa
, 80%.
80%
800hPa. 21 24
500hPa.
400hPa,
300hPa.
,
PV. 30.5 4PVU
32.5 6PVU.
290, 300 310
.
,
,
.
320, 330 PV

22,
450hPa.
.
290 300
.
.

30 32 PV 8PVU 6PVU
. 90% .

131

L
76: 37.5 22/1/2004 1200UTC.
(PVU), (K)
80%.

L
77: 37.5 22/1/2004 1200UTC.
(PVU) (Pa/s).

77
31 PV 80%.
132

 -3.5Pa/s
700hPa. 78 v
40m/s PV
.

78: 37.5 22/1/2004 1200UTC.

(PVU) v (m/s).

133

134

-
5.1
,

,
, ,
.
.

20/1/2004 0000UTC 21/1/2004

0600UTC.
.
850hPa
(trough), -
. 20/1/2004 1200UTC
(trough) 500hPa
.
21/1/2004 0600UTC.
21/1/2004 1200UTC
22/1/2004 1200UTC,

21/1/2004 1200UTC 1000hPa

. 21/1/2004 1800UTC
994hPa.
6hPa 6 22/1/2004 0000UTC
, , 37-23
986hPa, 8hPa .
22/1/2004 0600UTC
26 ,
135

, 984hPa,
2hPa . 22/1/2004 1200UTC

. 37.526.5.
976hPa, 8hPa.
24hPa 24h 1.45Bergeron,
Sanders(1986) . 22/1/2004 1200UTC,
,
850 700hPa
.
. 22/1/2004 1200UTC, 500hPa
.
22/1/2004 1800UTC.
.
38 30.
.
985hPa. 13
.
.
1000hPa 12
.
850hPa 18
6
1000hPa. 700hPa 500hPa
24
, 18
850hPa 12
1000hPa. 20, 54
, 300hPa
.

136

5.2

:
(trough)
, 20/1/2004 0000UTC,

.
.

, ,
850 700hPa .


9, 10 11, 12
.
12 250hPa
32*10-6 s-1. 400hPa
52*10-6 s-1, 11 250hPa 60*10-6
s-1,

.
9,
,
850hPa 400hPa
,
850hPa
400hPa , 6
,
.
. 500
400hPa, 450hPa
.
,
137


(trough).


300hPa 5, 21/1/2004
0000UTC, 12 .
7 ,

.
(trough) 10

.
, 6
. 11
, ,
.

, ,
6
.
,
,
.


.
7, ,
PV
11,
, 600hPa,

1.5PVU,
. 21/1/2004 1200UTC,
,
138

 400hPa 7PVU.

PV 2PVU.
PV ,
, .
PV
. 0600UTC
PV
PV 5.5PVU.
, PV 4.5PVU.
PV 6
(trough). 1200UTC , PV
PV 6.5PVU.


.

, PV
, 850hPa,
>80%.
, 7 1PVU
. 9, 12
,
3.5PVU.
. 80%
PV ,
9, 12
,
850hPa.

PV .

,
PV
139

290,
, 900hPa 600hPa
PV 950hPa 800hPa
,
.

,
, 9 11,
12
. 290
PV
.

7,
.

10,
60m/s, 6
, 300hPa.
, 6
.

21 -22
2004, ,
.

140


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143

:
., 2005: ,
, ,
.
., ., . ., 2010:

. 10
, , 25-28
2010, .
. ., 2004: ,
.
. ., 2005: ,
, ,
.
., 2006:
,
, , ,
.

144


,
.
, 24mb/24h
.. 60. .
. ,
,
.
,
.
, .
:
, , ,
. ,
,
: , ,
, ,
.
.

,
. 21-22
2004,
. ,
.
Sanders and Gyakum (1980)
1.45Bergeron,
(Sanders, 1986).

.
.
300mb,
6 .
850mb,
80%, 400mb. ,

1.5PVU
,
, ,
80%, v .


,
600mb,
PV
. ,
12

. ,
145

 , 6
.

146

ABSTRACT
In the present study we discuss an extreme weather phenomenon called
meteorological bomb. The meteorological bomb is a cyclone of the mean latitudes,
which presents a deepening rate of 24mb/24h at 60 latitude. The work is divided into two
main parts. The first is the theoretical approach to the problem. In this part, we present the
definition of the meteorological bomb, the criterion that must be met to qualify a cyclone
as a meteorological bomb, spatial and temporal distribution, and the duration and stages
of development of the phenomenon. Then, a reference is made to geographical features
and how they affect the development of explosive cyclones. These features are the
difference in the roughness of the sea and land, the orography and the sea currents. Also,
synoptic and dynamic conditions of the atmosphere are presented, such as baroclinicity,
static instability, vorticity, synoptic conditions in the upper troposphere and divergence.
Moreover, the physical processes that contribute to the creation and strengthening of
extra-tropical cyclones are given: the latent heat, the sensible heat, surface heat flows,
processes occurring in the boundary layer, the jet stream and tropopause folding.
The second part presents a case study. This is a meteorological bomb incident in
the central and eastern Mediterranean that has significantly affected the Greek area
because the maximum air pressure drop occurred in Greek territorial waters. The
phenomenon occurred from January 21st to January 22nd, 2004, and it was one of the
strongest meteorological bomb phenomena recorded in the Greek region. The work is
based on a synoptic, dynamic and thermodynamic study of the meteorological bomb.
The criterion Sanders and Gyakum (1980) showed that it was equivalent to 1.45Bergeron,
and classified the bomb as a moderate case (Sanders, 1986). Two troughs were observed
in the middle and upper troposphere days before the cyclogenesis, which merged at the
time of maximum deepening. Also, divergence has a maximum contribution at the time of
maximum deepening of the cyclone. Below, the distribution of positive vorticity
advection at the level of 300mb is analyzed, which is maximum 6 hours before the
maximum pressure drop. What follows is a PV analysis in the 850mb level, in
conjunction with the distribution of relative humidity with values 80%, and the 400mb
level. Then, an attempt to locate the tropopause is made through the distribution of
isobaric lines on the surface of 1.5PVU and the cross-sections along the parallels where
the centre of the meteorological bomb is in each time. These cross-sections depict the
potential vorticity, the potential temperature, the relative humidity with values 80%, the
vertical velocity and the v component of wind. Tropopause folding and influx of dry
stratospheric air at the west part of the center of the meteorological bomb is observed
when the cyclone is formed and peaks when there is minimum air pressure, as the
tropopause reaches the level of 600mb, while cool air is generally below the PV anomaly
and warmer in the centre of the meteorological bomb. Furthermore, diabatic processes
occur in the lower troposphere 12 hours before the maximum air pressure drop, as well as
increased instability in the cyclones centre from this particular time until the maximum
deepening. In addition, the upward movement in the centre of the cyclone is most
effective when the cyclone appears, while jet-stream mainly contributes 6 hours before
the minimum air pressure.

147