Cousee : MA2040 Probability PREC Gala Prcbabibechc wedel 2 watGeweltcal dsexighen 4 ews warcortodin Stvolian Eexgectveant Be obscexunlnon a CH Poe Resuk & on 6 bt eg: Sohorwinishe <9 wily Gifain Conditions », war deferminithe —> huberer ee the Condhenk, Renee or ake o Romchorn wncest Lge sire 5 State spo@ ov 5 Ate : eae Stole spo ov Sougle Spaces ty Keb a all tamer Sy oa Toleg Con’, See quit jefe fotell + = fe tole x Eahroustve! ADL positle otcomes frm IG eaperinant event iss Avboset 4 Le (willy Boat Sense uw exther & RA or veh a Ter, Aller We esperinonk, ea & Ad- Lb A be om arent , Rae Be Canby eet Fov, exveda ARS, AUR —y AWS AQR > Koss innpets e een eae a: Foe a aoe Brak fon w{L fp eee ( pS: fon { mel ( a a Says)Staley Expisiced aa = On event AeA, dagorrabed wih & Ree eC Wee key gh Ae ex) dem FO, ohn FY SS Sreyemt — catia A 1 Reakgedl te vobio bebwes —_ apvanlves f ed = aS ie & & ‘sale Trial: Rapih bon ca Wee vondon exqeiosd Neve tre taskead conhing - Oe Me, PES = PrAvB) = PCA) + PCBD ADB = g . (Adasoty) pees = t= op kpcnsay= KOTO ANE viewable, deficben co Gy prbobbhy (2 fook wb) . Th by is (a,A, p) OW walt wstical wed foc wee wot. 9 pA 0 Arad Tat (2) = & PCAOB) = PA) 4 PO) , i Ange & Po TL i ope AdAskwe pobey Gol Le seplted by centalle { , Mle pepy Salk le see Wy gtd shiva hyBowe Sek Cary corte Cot a,b,c be sole Mas: GYAUB =BVA- BW Anw= BNA - MW AvGuc) =(Ave) Ue Gv) (ANB) HC = ANNE). (Pros Hom ex check Few ss ody Ale, (V) AVBNc) = ALB @uce) oral (vw) AnGuE) =Ars) VES (i) Ang =, Avdea., Q)=A (wn) ney =Kut « (Ap) = ae: ee (vay = 9a o (QA) = YayS- beg fs ah Sel ae Senfh (pac) 5 ——s Dep Two ewan ant Sock f be Nroboaly exckenn or Focanpe ree te, te Wagdia & ewgly @ AdS=h Early bed ovedi ; WO preferente be pre vet be Kogpes Tae Se cur eek - ete eS PCA) = roray we 4 feSsdle Cages 1 voboslly exdsere ond eqpaly Asch, _ Yo 4 Cy els fe h se Com vet 6CCay Negeltuc ces eS w& coe oe i tee a) om evat oloove ee wih & a “Ten lhe “Se we dahshe Se oo 7 A? e, pO) = x a ( eee ME = OCANU ILD. P(ALB) = — me De = 90 unforwalls Rene g cokes \ Ng & |S) —h) te pa)= = = => P(A) + PCR) = 5Cot 1A OF Be The oboe clayiced dofatien foals 4h eae vote a pols coy taforte 9 nelly Vee ond af ee Gor Pe spe ethene opel ae oe. Con Reedetecte 4) head after Aad om Lead appeart (> P(A) Ka ALL ok conn on vot egpely Soul Keate \ Seok Com Koppen im be aoe YH = {au, ar,re trh apy Bel > play = Fab Goi) Cor fe Cowl’ i toes To calenlole te pchatalty Ke wo foclngerbenceag: Exjeraent Corte im te gee yous 8 t aid w o6 . 26) ifs means achat distinct: 2. os Ve 3 aeffeest tyes Gh chjecta- : Ge vo. f eee Wont irs osnense G dyed Caney ta Whe type Onn as contigaos ee ale ht wl | & orrong? objec sh 2 types, tee oe /3 Dsaedh 8, ad oe Sy ww en tyres ® iva we a Ook 4 WSS ocBPo,.4 Te Bae oe Ont conkiqaow, i ap we mL SL ae ena i Ey eRe Combinabions: Ty Vp cea perwnbations fos che k, Seg te von Cobineding , q | a a> L&D4 wb S42 Binomial fomula - ot Gp) at is Hi et Ss wath pe ft a dee ‘ te, Mo, Perma vos | Canleineliond 4 fe Mi od ie : a =e »_ power Soh tra ae tofal woe 4 Suliels oy we > : wt oat Eni 5 & oa => vhak duex Cis repel bet 6 dob ta fe wh dubs wits So Frown te ant 4 W Rae ow Leader frm te gr Pent A, (possthy Sex) oddckoral somber from ot wwe packer , a,» ay keds Poukbon! > mating - z 4 Se one een tR r ears ee nv yw why n— A m4 c Se tT AE ee aa A aw eh oe RA = een = % _—_3 = Al hy -- BAN, au _, abet soultinoniall ceelficets es pecicd dete odeg: we. 4 different usted hkained, ran Ge alten iw 6\ wa word TATTOO! & o ag 3413} Atenbely ue pervecbeliin me ON Time ENG 7 248i Polen: A don ri anc “A & ag wen ® ‘a eer how dpadad wh & ay ots whet « & patataldy that cachet Coy one ER A he: iebSea I wou we CON Aerde QE ria Fi AN AN LAL ee Auth % Fo af B13) Nh Peon els ena slg: Cavs cary WA = x wath = ——— > rep wd f y (at 164 eee rn eens aa on a wh Cae aha ne a ht a en wclode We Efivet ect im W-OWjeclt coeae ac erclafeig fir abject gies OL. : : % ran ma. Be Pb SG beth conned he low te Boe eee oNTy In gowrad Wy ik Om ost act tek (or abstract apa) Ku AH celleclion 4 dulgets fie heck “prbabald ys ayiged hon pose 4 ae we LSE TY Vay Se home Aaibesd poshen hye aang Pobalibby | (> eae an) od p(hy=o > S64 Sine PCA) 4 FORE | ale be Aaiahied foe frocks Songl 6 we Wowk 4 re Tan ce Ae Mids Ta eee cc Comkalls Seqprvale exe Wn 0 Ae ond a Az on aly ved tes! : touR Ware Crdabou are Coeckon & Ry ali) cuca : se J Spee oo gcA owed @) AeA S ef @ Jao heed | eA tx et v acon QO A ne .) we preladslly wade) a the oe e ene eons we on Yet eon tine Ne fivwrler PCA) en caesDef: A frobotbibly seed Befied on o-bdd Af 2 we & fpacken Pp: Aa ia Aad WA QS Pp = Gd POY AD = 2 PAD), wha Ait oe patente siote® -i2 A. KE (Courfeble addcivit ) eka 5 nl : Peopeckes : a 4tzy Tan? GH PCH) =0 | 2) PCAUE) = Pry-+ PO), h AdB=O- @@) PA)= G1 — FR) os gc Auk, wie added = Hh +1®- () — PCAVE) = PLA) © PCB) — PANE) do AnEos)=p & AUG D8) HALE - = play + plana) = pALB) — © tate (£08) Yana & od Easy 1 @O—= oo Nos, PCAs) + PCAng) HPD — eo R®, favs = PA* pee) — PARP) G) Y ACK, PCA) < P@): bef Se B= A UBrs) ond A nen =a¢ => pesy= M+ Pane) & FA fence | KBE Ploy eh) 26. Ayo An, N22 be evens 4 rect: Ae P). s:trah CD nd= $0) 3 i es ietejen ceEgjeken = GN REA OA A PALH= POA) + PCAD — PRYDE) tue shar ik fr wet benf oe Prjaty sso gek the foult a bee fo W CD. ne) = POG) + Fle) — PERN Bea) > = EP(he) — SNA) sD PANN Ae 5 peagnl fey wate} eajek + PK) = E PCED Ad) — : PADA DR, + BO See S ‘so, Cle noni] we \ = 2 Pty) J POY) + Cr) a ite we bei ent je teice cyt yeh cs Bo POD ALD HARM) => by Sete 3 induchian Canclestcctectee (he york’. } , Remark! co fon xB, KES Vk Are Collection f, ctated rhoelt BW CR, J. Thon Pili res =b-9* Ao fem [ea A ie Be heels opel genetih i cleagus Corday Seka ors Com Costhroc tran OL Nok Ck le food at hack Heh One coded WerSome Problewe de A conc is dvoun from oO pack, 4 Coady. Find aia Ne ik ie Ger oO Spode oY on OG A ~ Spode AUB = Kar B- B— P(RuB) = PCA) +) — PLAS) 16 Bein stan ge See ao 52 a: TH tee de om fram, hak % Ta Chawla Kol the Sum it @ 2o Wee eet Fi F nae ‘ A ze ew) + P(se12) W P(A 4 dc >a) = pG=a) a READ * KN a 4 &. Ay er noes wohl i is i exclukee ertuhy i ROADNONE 3 7 age oS a\ Sones Chater cniamCs fOr ep oe ee aa Sag i i A Gy i tas et => Kok whee oor U- ies 64% Vv = p(s) = testes) nae) ay b(A ne) = | —pArd) = (= PA) a3. bk A XB be fre events ack aS) © Fach thak MAS = x, PCB) = Shas thot Ci) pANB) > 3 = v 4 < eae ; Qt) = S PAB) Se Gi) kopce- = pan < % ay Ac us) = P(N) @< plava) ie = < pravs) PCAUBY = POL)-+ PLB) — pans) <1 Sao ie ad pans) > eT < pcans) = % ae corto F wile, 6 Rk ond & ne bag Tor 08 dior se nawdon wha te Grands Ral Ga os sth ond Mons oi aS > 1 leterh im Ta weds REGU LATIONS — be oxcorep ok Yow ae lone wt exactly fou Qeitora in beketom Gk whet uw = A 7 0 peice \ Tolal we + fete > RRE Com Oty Aworg fan, uv Wns GT Gee We Wncys oe lo Moe word . i Oem wey Ate wakivdy, Ving Combinalhans , ss Arowle ia ee — w wale We Me wos te pick SSE 7 to Wanye flee REE ath lebwerm katy 4 tien54 Sample Space and Probability Chap. 1 Suppose, to obtain\a contradiction, that the elements of [0,1] can be arranged in a sequence z1,1r2,r3,. \, so that every element of [0,1] appears in the sequence. Consider the decimal expansion of 2» Tn = 0.0 Gnd *, where each digit a’, belongs to {0,\...,9}- Consider now a number y constructed as follows. The nth digit of y can be 1 OX2, and is chosen so that it is different from the nth digit of r,. Note that y has a uniquédecimal expansion since it does not end with an infinite sequence of zeroes or nines. Thequmber y differs from each Zn, since it has a different nth digit. Therefore, the sequence Xx), 72,... does not exhaust the elements of [0,1], contrary to what was assumed. The contradiction establishes that the set [0, 1} is uncountable. SECTION 1.2. Probabilistic Models Problem 5. ut of the students in a class, 60% are geniuses, 70% love chocolate, and 40% fall into both categories. Determine the probability that a randomly selected student is neither a genius nor a chocolate lover. Problem 6. A six-sided die is loaded in a way that each even face is twice as likely as each odd face. All even faces are equally likely, as are all odd faces. Construct a probabilistic model for a single roll of this die and find the probability that the outcome is less than 4. Problem 7. A four-sided die is rolled repeatedly, until the first time (if ever) that an even number is obtained. What is the sample space for this experiment? Problem 8. You enter a special kind of chess tournament, in which you play one game with each of three opponents, but you get to choose the order in which you play your opponents, knowing the probability of a win against each. You win the tournament if you win two games in a row, and you want to maximize the probability of winning. Show that it is optimal to play the weakest opponent second, and that the order of playing the other two opponents does not matter. Problem 9. A partition of the sample space 9 is a collection of disjoint events Si,-+-55n such that 2 = UR) Si (a) Show that for any event A, we have se part (a) to show that for any events A, B, and C, we have P(A) = P(AN B) + P(ANC) + P(AN BNC) — P(ANBNC).Problems 55 which gives the probability that exactly one of the events A and B will occur. [Compare with the formula P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) — P(A B), which gives the probability that at least one of the events A and B will occur] Problem 11.* Bonferroni's inequality. (a) Prove that for any two events A and B, we have P(AN B) > P(A) + P(B) — (b) Generalize to the case of n events Ai, A2,..., An, by showing that P(A1 9 Ag 9+++9 An) > P(A1) + P(A2) +++: + P(An) — (n- 1). Solution. We have P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) — P(AN B) and P(AUB) <1. which implies part (a). For part (b), we use De Morgan’s law to obtain 1= P(A, 9-0 An) = P((A19--- 9 An)*) = P(AfU-+-UAS) < P(Aj) +--+ P(AS) = (1~P(Ai)) +--+ (1- P(An)) =n-P(Ai) - ++: = P(An). Problem 12.* The inclusion-exclusion formula. Show the following generaliza~ tions of the formula \ P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(ANB). (a) Let A, B, and C be events. Then, P(AUBUC) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)—P(AnB)-P(BNC)~P(ANC)+P(ANBNC). (b) Let Ai, A2...., Ah be events, Let S: = {i]1 Si R(AN B) - P(BNC)-P(ANC) +P(AN BNC)comdshonal probalilty ( ft Ass cvele ey Confinbtank) i wolivalian CONS brew We Save aeln ch stobiskcol perbebilihy - i te Ca prebabetty 4 Bowe eve A otter Loppeng ob aweller exeut Bh ete PR) ro > woraber th teu A Mentos after 8 Roppenal ee obfes © hegre hea A Be Mette ged as 4 eam nade, offer eee 8 otto! ge whl 2g. AGO RAB, at wo # (8) woe £.(b) at ps) debs Let CB) > + Tea Condiffonat Probebility oh A giv © PCA) = BAND. Defer The evewte A AG on enduperdist if RANK)= PHC J tft ctecha dj ce aagh,) # on clipes te th Pad Ay)= T rs) _¥ Gaskell geek ah acy Nea jeder Ack role Tudkpended colleckon dh weabeseser one aio Glled veokudly wdsperdent exent + teably wdapedet => foros eee WWajunde es a w wot bee Toure! pac eee eee q IE NeErora independ Ieuan eo Bod & oe WK Kod O Pras PAO) = pea) — PAIR) = PAG f@) = FAD PCEDThame? Sapp HCE) SO CA) A RB ont taepende af PIAVE)= NO Gi) Tee Fach PCAIBY far eveg A EA clefines Ba pobabbly weds on A> cola condtronal) pobatalily wad eB) Poh Uy % Hiwal. Gi) PHB) = = w(GAIOS) _— CM AnO®)) Bole) - 16) PGS) oo Ast), oe r PCAO®) TO) Poscwite deceit = > Pale) Wel => PMs) dafocs a probaly colled Condstcvel poke np Breer, Each Arieh iv indopendt eas eo BE bid eet indopondest fre o pack a St cardk on Examples t Sy a Co i LNW : we ered im omolbue tial be Chart a feat ord acon Ldaperdk eve fra pone , ys & A PAR uk 22 fia 3,4} od y= Eo Lek p@) = 4 ia Ran fC On - ; eee eee ps ee W135. ee dariciat b& ave vel indepondet er GME 1 peangye b= FOG) ty LL = PAA): PCB) PO. & ANC Peay &e PIA) = Re p(sy=4 p.2eanenc\—ntsot oe 3 Shedd: KY, 2 thee Chowles of \: A. Pollen % gtues fe tohak is Me chante fs 1S proklesn . ae t y ashen tort St sesphy - kk be felved-)- z ne fae = . an: ee 5, Mp=4 , ruonve a 1 Fh PM=5 B= yes , @=% 3 | ) Fone —fth,: or nei 3 pen o2) = 6. ESo a a a @=- ‘« > pxuyiva) = t- PRagaD=2. = Ge oa Sea ‘Wl cam bak a tengel A Eneg im Shake 5 “8 con do oh pe Cc tom do teie in 3 Anche Th Ss fave la ar) we TR chek : a We cas by obbod a 6 Tet Biles BES POY =% , MB = | , POF 5. J ae patolab = PROB NT) + PADBNO + + PCRABAC) 4 pCAaB Ac) 2) 4b +) ew es 64.36. ai 5 ral Sy Bue LAL BC On woshally jeduponde deyw wkek Taran 3 piige, om AL peiges & 6 blonks Bs @eE a W Rax 2 Ahoata to & Molter, & Fon shares wont ¢} oe 5 bhonts chow (oot At dan chore 4 satay @ i 35) \ — 10 Machen Salers ™ a a “ea | =m i & Wee ke, = Bro ¢ “Bs i = ie q & . pas ey, “yer s An man. cllarealevely) Heset S Ue eds Jak a We prboliity Ba Fe AR gt wif Com. or Ke get 65 or 6) om Ge Aaa? egies odaack ew bey she pCready = 5 (SoG mdse) = ae 4 PCrck gatteg, Ser 6) = i ERE) PC) HEIOM ei P&ucew) = PO) © p(t): em. 2 1a pew® Comneckion hefween ‘Sloped one Wi Condifiana probalei a (moth clin pale) Themen 2 Th By A Ay € ca eee a P(AD-= DAL) 0, POAO---dAn) = PCA PLAS A) POAs[ ASA) ---- Pn] Ad OA Prof: 8 inchachan bor Mak, HOAOAD = PCA) PCAJA) (condi bask prvalaby) suppese tee veut uote fer wet bak B= AMAR Base Then, PCBOAL) = PCAN 8) - PCB) = PR) RAIA) ---- Fanta a vest Seb: Je,f iz & porkihion 4, SL ond tea oss padres deayaiot wih a2 Pondskion (aoen ar Take, prbabeltly (rere + tak oe a finthe ay connfatlh pankihion of P(r. ANAL) PA Nees h EEA NY wd PE) >K = Ven: Ten AeA, PA) = 2 POe)- PD ps A= AN& = AnWE) = U (ADR) Yine [EF on porrnice Seay, ce ow FANE. > phys = PCANER) = SS P(E) HE)ete apricas prbabitiy owe Com hand apesti&t probaly Boyes The arene, 3 uh tat be a feck ee Porksfien a a ad & upse Watt pa >So. Wy PCE A) = PALEY PED > PAE) PE) i ee nes RSS = ea RO PAY « fork kas Cree ) = PEN. | Some proven» paueentE iter J. Ta 0 Grtoin Cohege ach boys Pens 4 qh. hecly 4 {he Atndant body. wot wollie,, The qe cowlitte 60% Aedseh (ay wok is Te probability frat wal, bet (Wy TY adedot ic delected ab youdom ond ie fond Sis Brady el, find 1 clone tet te dade ig a gual Ce) Bome OG) wth arte chonle TA he dtd & aby be PCG) = p(s) = 4G = o-4 (eo P(g) = PG) = & 206 p(s |B) Seca p(W[G) = O41 fay PCH) = PCG) PG) + P(NLB) PCR) = OF XOG H OUWKOA = se Ey Ge = MC) CCR co PRIS Dey > PLYLAd POO) Bn 3 ee eo30 f , Me Bowe As A butrattomonn gees te bate XW Y,2 20%, 90% Sh Ah ST h Rvs wm X,Y, ZH Yeapechvely~ TE th kmom teak 5%, Ah, Sh oh fe wWs! Mm KY, ee Kane fort plaseb whet in me Probelibty Tat Te burantia won goer te Lat C3) wie farlty Plsbs i 4 ¢ Rassivg fO WW i uw prbatally teak bageagwass Yoon “ONY p plea ia onfiaed ts Sokel Zz 1. Seba * A= ere of fealty ploy a ea a a csi P(az2eeer, Pom) Os, Pl = ss {oo AN) = 0:04 , PAB) =OOF P(AlB,) = 008 , P(ABDAB) + POE IRE + PA 85)9@2) @ PAs eer ye ast ieee nia Se SOA CME ok? Nem CoO = 01084 PCAIe:) PGs) eeteese 2h 1S a ne wy PUBIA) ana we a4 Bustlea. suppose colored b > i appe colored balls arr dishibuted in a aa foxes 08 Fellowes Box \ a 3 Red oe Ae 3 vale 3 \ br he = Be inet uy vg Selacked at ponders frown which @& ball & poncho + Waok te chomle Teal Te Weld & tek (0 Yohoce-L A ben aecked ok Yor colored Q) wack Go) i ge R(B) = PCr) =POBS)=}, Q)ye an dl Bou Q Bon 3 Theo bally ann Avan fram a box Cheten at Aandom ford & be ow ubak ond om wd - Coens i Wht, 2 hed, 3 Green balls ay oon) t a > » (8 , n u re ” he a wh iu th probability the Tee ball, te Ayeumy * Geert Come {es box 2. Dos: P(e) = pce.) = 70s) = As rballe wish & Rad, ane Ayown play 8) = as a P(NB:) = P(Af EBS) = PCB A) = iS ose ae eee G can ou 2, Sy ie cumummnalas: ree PATE) PC) + PATE) PCB) -+ PCs) PCBs) tx ae © —_.6 ins — We aT eee eta es s ge eee ee s iC i a ereAwk! a A— Meda Bek = wo Sa P(me( a) POS) et gh Coen 6 PALE eeu a : C2 glee] Pa) + Kerley \ es Kuo g PO) = 79500 > wor > ea= iO" PCrefa) =l- 001 = 079 (ate acess), PLve/a) = \% (os a4% ace) = 0.0| p(ee/B) = Sf, = 005 (ae /p) = 1-008 (ot tear el) <% — (Ala) = Baa KOT ae Bee ute Minne = 6b Quid: Mood it Screaned for KIDS: Supgese MA. IY Accu ETS Fro ta tak ond ot in ten Totord gene in Be GE GOT © ww awe The Test Roy AS, ola ~ve vag aswell - 1 Suppoh Ted He tek Screens Rowe Of aye: tok te te pobabalsty ak Re tron Ais» Waki 99% safe ts pltve /a)- ned t bX pla [eeg A Comp Ye doacins é i fy pre duc ) Cevfoin item by (Wer factories product B0},30) 2° To Sosjeciely - S eel | aa } ape sh pooabikha nek Gt T chen is Ashedive fran % fackca per Ont OCT Ack eae espe i De prbatil Tt ib si ia cafechve- at oN gay fokon at Yooden, ak te omen th wed prrdated - Poy ee Bb. B— ikem id defective he ¥tfen U produced in for t- (ofA, \= o0> (in) = O08 Remeeze DCAD = "2 PCB/As) = 0-0! ek Pls = oe cy PC BPCO POM) = ESTE toni? auc _ ate 2 ee se _ a foe KIC ee ane 2 fits) PON) :