Cng b Kt qua Nghin cu

ti nghin cu kho st:

NHN THC HI NHP KINH T QUC
T CA DOANH NGHIP VIT NAM
c thc hin bi Trng Doanh Nhn PACE

TP. HCM, ngy 28/12/2015

Nhm tc gi

Ch tr :

Trin khai:

ng Gin T Trung

B Nguyn Th Hin
B Trn Th Thanh Lan
B Nguyn Th Hng o

T vn & Phn bin:

PGs. Ts. Trn Hu Quang

Ts. Nguyn Xun Ngha
Ts. Nguyn Khnh Trung

Bi cnh nghin cu
Hi nhp kinh t su rng v ton din vi
khu vc v th gii v mi mt
Nhn thc hi nhp c vai tr quan trng khi
hi nhp kinh t quc t.
Cc yu t nh hng n nhn thc hi
nhp cng cn c quan tm.
Nhu cu kho st v nghin cu v nhn
thc hi nhp

L do nghin cu
DNVN tn dng c hi v vt qua
thch thc
nh v c thc trng nhn thc
DN v cc ch th c lin quan cn nhn
thc ng v (su sc) v hi nhp
Thiu bng chng khch quan v khoa hc
Thc hin ti nghin cu ny

Mc ch nghin cu

a ra c s d liu khch quan v khoa

hc nhm gip cc nh hoch nh chnh
sch, cc c quan bo ch, cc nh nghin
cu v cng ng doanh nghip c thm gc
nhn v nhn thc hi nhp ca DN VN .
Cnh bo thc trng v thc y DN tm
hiu v hi nhp quc t, c bit l chun
b, hon thin mnh thnh cng trc
nhng c hi v thch thc mang tnh khu
vc v ton cu.

Cu hi nghin cu

Doanh nghip Vit Nam (DNVN) nhn thc

nh th no v hi nhp kinh t?
u l nhng nhn t tc ng n nhn
thc ca doanh nghip Vit Nam?

Cc nghin cu trc y

Cho n nay c 3 nghin cu c lin quan

t nhiu n vn nhn thc hi nhp ny:
Vin Nghin cu ng Nam ca
Singapore ISEAS (2013)
Bo co v ch s CPI ca VCCI (2014)
Tp ch Pht trin v Hi nhp (UEF)
Mt s ti liu khc c lin quan
T chc Edelman (2015, Oct.)
...

Cc nghin cu trc y

Ch : Hi nhp ni chung, nhn thc v

tng hip nh ring l, chin lc, nng lc
hi nhp cp khu vc v trong nc.
Phm vi: nhng ni dung ring l (AEC,
TPP)
Phng php: NC ti liu, nh lng, so
snh
i tng: DN (49-152) v SV (204)
Hnh thc: NC, bo co thng k
Ti VN, thiu trm trng cc nghin cu
v hi nhp kinh t mt cch ton din

Ni dung kho st

Nhn thc
Cc ni
dung
1. AEC
hi nhp
2. TPP

3. WTO

Cch
tip cn 1. Cc yu t
hi nhp tc ng
2. nh gi cc
yu t tc ng

Phng php nghin cu

Phng php NC
Nghin cu kho st / iu tra x hi hc (Survey
Research)
nh lng (Quantitative) kt hp nh tnh
(Qualitative).
Cng c nghin cu: Bng hi kho st
(Questionaire) v Phng vn trc tip (Inerview)
i tng, khch th v mu NC
i tng nghin cu: Nhn thc hi nhp kinh t
quc t ca DN Vit Nam.
Khch th: Doanh nghip ang hot ng ti VN
Chn mu: Mu phi xc sut (493 doanh nghip)

M t mu nghin cu
Tng mu: 493 doanh nghip (ch yu chn mu ti TP. HCM)
Chc
danh

Ngnh
ngh

Th
trng

L cao cp

24.6

L trung cao

58.1

QL cp trung

Quy
<100 NV
m DN 100-200 NV

37.8

9.9

201-500 NV

14.9

Khc

7.4

>500 NV

30.8

Cng nghip

44.7

Nh nc

8.8

Dch v

38.7

T nhn

56.6

Thng mi

9.1

C YTNN

22.1

Nng nghip

7.5

Khc

12.5

Trong nc

87.5

Tp. HCM

75.2

ASEAN

51.9

Min nam

19.4

Cc nc
khc

43.5

Min trung

2.5

Pha bc

2.9

Loi
hnh
DN

Vng
min

16.5

KT QU
NGHIN CU

Phn ln DN cha bit n v khng quan

tm n hi nhp kinh t

Ghi ch: NAEC, TPP, WTO = 291

Biu 1: Mi quan tm ca DN n AEC, TPP, WTO

Tng quan gia cc bin

Nhn thc hi nhp - chc danh (chc danh

cng cao, nhn thc AEC, TPP cng tt)
Nhn thc hi nhp - Quy m DN (DN cng
ln, t l hu nh khng quan tm cng cao)

Nhm DN c th trng sn phm ASEAN quan tm n ni

dung hi nhp hn nhm DN khng c
Kim nh
Chi square

Th trng sn phm ti cc nc ASEAN

Cha bit n
Hu nh khng quan
AEC tm
Quan tm
Tng
(N)

TPP

Cha bit n
Hu nh khng quan
tm
Quan tm
Tng
(N)

Cha bit n
Hu nh khng quan
WTO tm
Quan tm
Tng
(N)

C
14.1

Khng
31.5

Tng
22.5

35.2

34.8

35.0

50.8

33.7

42.6

100.0
(199)

100.0
(184)

100.0
(383)

12.1

21.1

16.4

22.1

26.5

24.2

65.8

52.4

59.4

100.0
(199)

100.0
(185)

100.0
(384)

3.5

3.8

3.7

24.6

36.4

30.3

71.9

59.8

66.1

100.0
(199)

100.0
(184)

100.0
(383)

X2 (2) =
19.508
p = 0.000

X2 (2) = 8.411
p = 0.015

X2 (2) = 6.520
p = 0.038

Hu ht cc DN khng bit n cc iu
khon c th

Biu 2: Hiu bit ca DN v cc iu khon c th ca AEC, TPP v

WTO
Ghi ch: NAEC = 389; NTPP = 390; NWTO = 390

AEC, TPP: chc danh cng cao th hiu bit

cng tng, c khc bit WTO

Biu 3: S hiu bit v cc iu khon c th ca AEC, TPP, WTO phn theo

chc danh (n v: %)
Ghi ch: NAEC = 201; NTPP = 202; NWTO = 202

DN c th trng Asean quan tm n ni

dung hi nhp hn DN khng c

Biu 4: Th trng ASEAN v hiu bit ca DN v cc iu khon c th

caAEC, TPP, WTO (n v: %)
Ghi ch: NAEC = 382; NTPP = 383; NWTO = 383

DN VN cn m h v tc ng ca hi nhp

Nhn nh tc ng theo chc danh

Hu nh khng
tc ng

TG, ch tch

G, PG

Trng phng

Tng

28.0

30.4

25.0

29.2

34.0

51.3

35.0

44.9

38.0

18.3

40.0

25.9

100.0
(50)

100.0
(115)

100.0
(20)

100.0
(185)

Khng bit
Tc ng nhiu
Tng
(N)

X2 (4) = 9.958; p = 0.041; C = 0.226

DN c th trng ASEAN nhn nh tc

ng nhiu hn DN khng c

Biu 6: Nhn nh v tc ng ca AEC, TPP, WTO n hot ng kinh doanh

ca DN, phn theo th trng ASEAN
Ghi ch: NAEC = 382; NTPP = 384; NWTO = 384

Nhn thc ca DN v li ch khi hi nhp

Nhn thc v li ch ca hi nhp
N

M rng th trng, xut khu

89

37.1

C hi, c hi hp tc, kinh doanh

59

24.6

Thay i pht trin, ha nhp khu vc v quc t

57

23.8

Hc hi, trau di kin thc mi

33

13.8

Thch thc, cnh tranh

33

13.8

u t vn, cng ngh

16

6.7

u i v thu, thay i lut l

13

5.4

Cht lng ngun nhn lc

12

5.0

Nng cao cht lng sn phm

2.9

kin khc

20

8.3

Tng

339

141.2

Nhn thc ca DN v thit hi khi hi nhp

Nhn thc v bt li ca hi nhp
N

78

35.8

Cnh tranh khc lit

64

29.4

Mt s bo h

25

11.5

22

10.1

22

10.1

Ri ro cao

20

9.2

Bt n an ninh, chnh tr

1.8

kin khc

23

10.6

Tng

258

118.3

Mt th phn, th trng khch hng

Mt ngun lao ng c cht lng

B ph sn, st nhp, DN nh gp kh khn

DN nhn nh v tc ng ca hi nhp

Biu 7: DN nhn nh v tc ng ca DN theo th t u tin

Ch mt s t DN chun b cho hi nhp

Biu 8: S chun b ca DN cho vic hi nhp (n v: %)

C
Chun b hi Khng
nhp AEC
Tng
(N)

Rt quan
tm
71.4

47.6

28.6
49.5
89.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
(77)
(97)
(57)
2
X (2) = 49.267; p = 0.000 ; C = 0.462

52.4
100.0
(231)

Quan tm n TPP
Quan tm t quan tm

68.8
45.0
13.8
31.2
55.0
86.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
(93)
(131)
(58)
2
X (2) = 43.677; p = 0.000 ; C = 0.394
Rt quan tm

C
Chun b hi Khng
nhp WTO Tng
(N)

50.5

Tng

10.5

Rt quan tm

C
Chun b hi Khng
nhp TPP
Tng
(N)

Quan tm n AEC
Quan tm t quan tm

Quan tm n WTO
Quan tm t quan tm

73.2
52.4
17.7
26.8
47.6
82.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
(82)
(164)
(79)
2
X (2) = 50.859; p = 0.000 ; C = 0.396

Tng
46.5
53.5
100.0
(282)

Tng
49.2
50.8
100.0
(325)

DN t thay i trong kinh doanh khi hi

nhp

Biu 9: Mc thay i chin lc ca DN hi nhp (n v:

%)

Nhm DN nh nc c t l t thay i hn
nhm DN T nhn v c YTNN

Biu 10: Mc thay i chin lc, phn theo loi hnh DN (n

v: %)

Phn ln DN cha c t th sn sng

cho hi nhp

Biu 11: Mc thay i chin lc, phn theo loi hnh

DN (n v: %)

Nhm DN nh nc c xu hng cha sn

sng hn nhm DN t nhn v c YTNN
6
5

Series 1

Series 2

Series 3

1
0
Category 1

Category 2

Category 3

Category 4

Biu 12: T th hi nhp AEC, TPP, WTO theo loi hnh

DN (n v: %)

Khi nim hi nhp ca DN VN

Cc nhn nh

Nhm nhn t
Php l

Li ch

Ni lc

L phi thit lp cc iu khon chung

.829

.131

.043

L cc bn phi tn trng v tun th cc iu

khon chung

.752

.065

.231

Thc y hon thin h thng php lut quc gia

.615

.181

.048

Gip khng nh, nng cao v m rng thng

hiu

.092

.836

.182

Gip khng nh v th quc gia

.248

.840

.042

i hi phi c nng lc cnh tranh

.189

.037

.807

hi nhp, cn nhn thc r ci mnh hi nhp

.047

.175

.805

% phng sai

35.94

15.37

14.68

KMO = 0.686; Bartletts c X2 (21) = 569.433; p = 0.000

Phng sai tng th: 65,99% (gii thch c 65,99 % bin thin ca d liu).
Nhn t 1: Yu cu hon thin php l trong hi nhp.( = 0.6)
Nhn t 2: Li ch ca hi nhp. ( = 0.7)
Nhn t 3: Ni lc ca DN trong hi nhp. ( = 0.5).

Nhn thc ca DN v mt s ni dung c

th
V cc mc thi gian quan trng

Nm
hnh
thnh
Nm VN
gia nhp

Sai

AEC
(%)
75.7

TPP (%) WTO

(%)
56.6
57.3

ng

24.3

43.4

42.7

Sai

45.3

86.1

63.5

ng

54.7

13.9

36.5

Trn 50% DN khng nhn bit cc mc tiu

AEC
Phn ln

Phn

khng

ln nhn

nhn bit

bit

53.9

46.1

100.0

81.5

18.6

100.0

Hnh thnh khu vc mu dch t do AFTA

54.9

45.1

100.0

Mt khu vc kinh t pht trin ng u

66.6

33.3

100.0

C s lu chuyn t do ca hng ha dch v

50.0

50.0

100.0

Mt khu vc kinh t c sc cnh tranh cao

Hng n t do u t vn, cng ngh v lao
ng c tay ngh

47.0

53.1

100.0

51.6

48.4

100.0

43.1

56.9

100.0

kin ca DN v mc tiu ca AEC

Tng %
(N= 490)

AEC hng n mt th trng chung thng

nht
AEC hng n mt c s sn xut chung thng
nht

Mt khu vc hi nhp y vo kinh t ton

cu

Mi quan h gia cc bin

-

Nhm DN khng quan tm cc hip nh- tr li sai

cc mc thi gian quan trng
Nhm DN khng xc nh c tm quan trng ca
hi nhp- tr li sai
Nhm DN khng c s chun b hi nhp- tr li
sai
Rt t s khc bit gia cc nhm DN theo cc c
im: quy m DN, loi hnh DN, chc danh
Ch tm thy mi quan h gia cc bin d liu
thuc ni dung hi nhp.
Tnh ng tin cy ca d liu
S ng nht trong nhn thc ca DN theo hng
tiu cc

T l DN chn sai v cc lnh vc c u

tin khi hi nhp AEC
Nhng lnh vc c u tin hi nhp

La chn
N

Tng
%

Hng nng sn

219

17.7

46.9

Dt may

187

15.1

40.0

Kinh doanh bt ng sn

42

3.4

9.0

Cc sn phm t g

79

6.4

16.9

118

9.5

25.3

Xy dng

45

3.6

9.6

Thng tin truyn thng

66

5.3

14.1

Hnh chnh, dch v h tr

71

5.7

15.2

Ti chnh, ngn hng, bo him

101

8.2

21.6

Logistics

110

8.9

23.6

Khng bit

200

16.2

42.8

Tng

1238

100.0

265.1

Thng mi in t ASEAN

DN quan tm ni dung no AEC?

6
5
4
Series 1

Series 2

Series 3

1
0

Category 1

Category 2

Category 3

Category 4

Biu 13: DN quan tm n ni dung ca

AEC

Phn ln DN khng nhn bit cc mc tiu

ca TPP
kin ca DN
DN nhn din cc mc tiu ca TPP

Tng cng cc quy nh lin quan n u

t nc ngoi
Tng cng cnh tranh, c bit trong lnh
vc mua sm cng
Sit cht cc yu cu v v sinh dch t v
ro cn k thut
Ct gim hon ton thu xut nhp khu
gia cc nc thnh vin
Cc quy nh m bo quyn li ngi lao
ng
Cc vn phi thng mi khc
Tng mc m ca cc lnh vc dch v,
c bit l ti chnh
Tng mc bo h cc quyn s hu tr
tu cao hn so vi mc trong WTO

Tng %
(N)

Phn ln
khng nhn
bit

Phn ln
nhn bit

62.3

37.8

100.0

66.9

33.1

100.0

66.8

33.2

100.0

56.6

43.0

100.0

52.8

47.1

100.0

51.1

48.9

100.0

50.2

49.8

100.0

52.6

47.3

100.0

DN quan tm mc tiu no ca TPP?

6
5
4
Series 1

Series 2
Series 3

2
1
0
Category 1

Category 2

Category 3

Category 4

Biu 14: DN quan tm n ni dung ca TPP

DN nhn bit mc tiu ca WTO

DN nhn din v nhim v ca WTO

Phn ln
khng nhn
bit

Phn
ln nhn
bit

Tng %
(N)

Tha thun v nhng quy tc v th tc iu

chnh vic gii quyt tranh chp gia cc thnh
vin

56.0

43.9

100.0

R sot nh k cc chnh sch thng mi ca

cc thnh vin

56.3

43.2

100.0

Thc y vic thc hin hip nh v cam kt

t c trong khun kh WTO

41.7

58.2

100.0

To din n cc thnh vin tip tc m

phn k kt nhng hip nh, cam kt mi v
t do ha

42.2

57.6

100.0

Truyn thng i chng c DN nh gi l yu

t quan trng nh hng n cch nhn thc hi
nhp
Nhng knh thng tin
nh hng

La chn
(N)

% theo la chn

Tng %

Internet
Bo
Ti vi
i tc kinh doanh
i

356
297
257
251
241

74.8
62.4
54.0
52.7
50.6

13.5
11.2
9.7
9.5
9.1

nh hng t nh nc

228

47.9

8.6

Hip hi ngh nghip

225

47.3

8.5

Nhu cu ca cng ty

207

43.5

7.8

Sch
Ngi thn
Trng hc

195
152
145

41.0
31.9
30.5

7.4
5.7
5.5

Khng c yu t no

90

18.9

3.4

2644

555.5

100.0

Tng

Nhn nh ca DN v cc yu t nh hng
Truyn thng (Internet, tivi, bo i) c vai tr quan trng n nhn
thc hi nhp ca doanh nghip
nh hng ca Nh nc cha tc ng n nhn thc hi
nhp ca doanh nghip
Gio dc (nh trng, c s o to) cha nh hng ng v
v hi nhp
X hi cha cnh tnh doanh nghip v hi nhp quc t
Bn thn doanh nghip cha quan tm n hi nhp kinh t
quc t
Tm nhn hn ch ca cc doanh nhn v hi nhp kinh t
Thiu cc hip hi kinh doanh t lp thc y nhn thc hi nhp

Kt lun

Nhn chung, mc nhn thc ca DN v hi nhp kinh t

cn thp (43.2%, 59.1% v 66.6%. DN c quan tm ), AEC
t c nhn bit nht t cc DN. Phn ln cc DN khng
bit cc iu khon c th ca cc hip nh (85,5% - 77,8%
- 66,3%)
Phn ln DN (bao gm DN nh nc, t nhn, DN c yu
t nc ngoi) khng nh gi c v kh th ng trc
tc ng ca hi nhp (tc ng: 26,1%- 32,2% - 38,4%).
DN c xu hng cho rng cc hip nh tc ng khng
nhiu n hot ng kinh doanh ca DN. (lng l 44,7% 38,3% - 28,7%) (khng tc ng:29,2% 29,5% 32,9%)
DN nhn nhn tc ng mang tnh tch cc: c hi
(70,5%). Nhm DN t nhn chim 56,1% >< 7,6% DN nh
nc. M rng th trng sn phm (37,1%), c hi hp tc
nhiu hn (24,6%) v s thay i/ha nhp trong khu vc
v quc t (23,8%).

Kt lun

DN nhn nhn tc ng mang tnh tiu cc: Mt th

trng (35,8%), cnh tranh khc lit (29,4%). DN
cng lo ngi v s mt bo h, mt ngun lao ng c
cht lng, nguy c ph sn, st nhp, c bit i
vi DN nh.
DNVN cha sn sng hi nhp: sn sng hi nhp
(19,7%- 21,7% - 31,1%) C 51,7% - 46,7%- 43% DN
khng chun b ro rit hi nhp AEC. Nhng kt
qu ny cho thy mt t th c th xem l b ng
trong hi nhp ca DNVN.
DNVN nhn thc kh r rng v li ch su xa ca
hi nhp ,yu t php l, ni lc ca DN cng l c
im trong nhn thc hi nhp ca DNVN.

Kt lun

a s DN VN t chun b (51,7 46,7 43%) v cha

sn sng cho hi (sn sng 19,7 - 21,7- 31,1%)
DN c quy m ln c xu hng thay i v sn sng
nhiu hn hi nhp.
DN ngoi nh nc nng ng v sn sng hn cc DN
nh nc trong vic thay i chin lc kinh doanh.
Mc sn sng hi nhp ph thuc vo mc thay
i chin lc kinh doanh ca DN.
Cc nc ASEAN l th trng trong tng lai ca
phn ln cc DN tuy nhin, t l DN quan tm v hiu
bit v AEC li thp nht. C l y l mu thun ni
ti trong kinh doanh ca DN VN.

Kt lun theo cc xu hng

Xu hng v logic nhn thc: d liu thu

thp c ng tin cy (xu hng nhn thc
cc ni dung khi qut v cc ni dung c
th c mi tng quan thun vi nhau)
Xu hng v s ng nht: rt t c s khc
bit c ngha thng k trn ton dn s
gia cc bin ni dung nhn thc v cc bin
c lp thuc c im v thng tin DN.

Mt vi so snh vi cc nghin cu trc

ISEAS (2013)
76% khng bit v
AEC
94% khng bit v
iu l AEC
VCCI (2015)
31,5% khng bit
TPP

Nghin cu ny
56,8% khng bit, khng
quan tm AEC
85,5% khng bit cc
iu l AEC
80,3% cha sn sng
AEC
40,9% cha bit, khng
quan tm n TPP
77,8% khng bit ni
dung m phn TPP
78,3% DN cha sn sng
TPP

Mt vi so snh vi cc nc khc
VN

Campuchia

76%

26%

63%

38%

Lo

Myanmar

Khng Bit n AEC

28%
36%
AEC Khng tc ng
35%
33%

Thi
Lan
30%
16%

Nhng hn ch ca Nghin cu

Chn mu (phi xc sut)

Ch yu l d liu nh lng (bng hi
kho st), cn d liu nh tnh cn t
(phng vn tng ngi)

CM N
QU V!