Peter Wilde Presentation October 20 2015 Compressed

Tasmanian Geography Teachers Association
20 October 2015
Population change in Tasmania:

A taster of ABS data
by Peter Wilde
Honorary associate Utas
and former lecturer in economic geography and regional analysis
Analysis and presentation Peter Wilde; Data ABS
Ideas to take away

1.
ABS population and other data are free and

easily accessible on line (abs.gov.au)
(See instructions for downloading these in Theme 4 of this

presentation)
2.
Regional (sub-state) population and other data

can be presented and analysed easily and
meaningfully using the revised ABS regional
statistical geography
(This is described in Theme 2 of this presentation)
3.
Students (and teachers!) could be encouraged

to find ABS data and to develop tables and
charts (and, for the more skilled, maps) for
population and the ABS (TGTA
assignments,Tasmania's
projects
and
lessons 2
2015)
Peter Wilde;
ABS
(I show some inData
Themes
1 and 3 which you are welcome to
The ABS is a treasure

trove of spatial socioeconomic
data
The ABS provides regional data on
population, households, housing stock,

society, culture,
the economy, industry, agriculture,
environment, energy.
and much more
ABS data can be used to create tables,
graphs and maps using a coherent
statistical geography
What do you want me to

emphasise?
(All slides will be available
afterwards)
Theme 1: Population
change in Tasmania
as a whole
a)
b)
Graphs of population change in Tasmania

The role of births, deaths, migration in Tasmanias
changing population
Theme 2: The new ABS (sub-state)

statistical geographies
Basic details of SAs 1-4 for Tasmanias three major regions
Theme 3: Population data for local and

regional Tasmania
Various maps of Tasmanias
population characteristics at
Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA
2015)
Peter Wilde;
5
several scales
Data ABS
Theme 1: Population change

in Tasmania as a whole

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
Tasmanias population,
Sep 1981 Mar 2015
600,000
6.0
500,000
5.0
Percentage of Australia
400,000
4.0
300,000
3.0
Tasmania
Persons
Tas/Au %
200,000
2.0
520,000
500,000
100,000
1.0
480,000
460,000
0.0
440,000
Persons
420,000
400,000
Date
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
Date
7
Annual change in Tasmanias

population
1982-3 to 2013-14
8,000
1983-1993 erratic growth between

2,000 and 7,000 persons per year.
7,000
From 2003-2011 growth over 2,000 per year
but again quite erratic.
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
Persons
2,000
1,000
From 1994 to 1996

Lower growth.
From 2012 to 2014
Low but increasing growth.
1997-2002
declines or
increases
less that
550.
0
-1,000
-2,000
population
YearTasmania's
ending 30
June and the ABS (TGTA
2015)
Data ABS
Peter Wilde;
Tasmanias population change,

1981-2015 (4 quarter moving
average)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Persons
500
Quarterly Change
Moving average
Linear trend
-500
-1,000
Date
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
Tasmanias population change by

quarter, 1981-2015
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Persons
500
Quarterly Change
Moving average
-500
-1,000
Date
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
10
Population, 2014 and percentage

change, 2004-14, in Tasmanias
four regions

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
11
Main types of ABS data on

population
Estimated Resident Population

(ERP)
by age and sex (only)
available annually (for 30 June) for sub-state
regions to SA2 and quarterly for Australia and
states and territories
good for monitoring population change
Census data
Available from SA1s by age, sex and many
other variables which can be cross-classified
released progressively after 5 yearly census
(2011 and 2016)
2015)
Peter Wilde;
12
Data ABS
Components of Population
Change

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
14
Population change, Tasmania,

March 2002-03 March 2014-15
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Persons
3,000
Population change
2,000
1,000
0
Year ending March

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
15
How natural increase and net migration

contibuted to population change,
Tasmania, March 2003 March 2015
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
Persons
2,000
Natural
increase
1,000
Net migration
0
-1,000
-2,000
Year ending March
Population change = Natural Increase + Net migratio

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
16
How births and deaths

contribute to natural increase in
Tasmania, 2003-2013
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Persons
Bi
rt
hs
4,000
3,000
Natural Increase = Births - Death
2,000
1,000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year ending March

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
17
Net reproduction rate, Tasmania

2003-2013
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
NRR
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Net reproduction rate is the average number of daughters that would be born
to a group of women during their lifetime under typical circumstances.
An NRR ofonemeans that each generation of mothers has exactly enough
daughters to replace themselves in the population.
Birth Rate , GRR (Gross replacement rate) and TFR (Total fertility rate) are other
useful measures.
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
18
How overseas and inter-state net

migration contribute to total net
migration in Tasmania, March 2003
March 2013
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
Net OS
Net is
Total net migration
1,000
Persons
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Total net migration = net over-seas migration+ net inter-state migrati

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
19
Inter-state migration flows to and

from Tasmania by quarter, 19812015
et migration = Arrivals - Departures

10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Persons
Gross migration
Departures
Arrivals
Net migration
2,000
0
-2,000
Date
he annual figures hide considerable variations between quarters, making real migration more
omplex than the annual data suggest. Many of the high points for both Arrivals and Departures,
nd therefore the gross movements, are in the March quarter. The quarter of highest net gain varies
more, though June is common.
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
20
Origins and destinations of

Tasmanias inter-state migration,
Dec 2014 Mar 2015
Gross migration churning = 5247
lation churning means that a stable population in terms of total numbers

still undergo substantial change in its structure in terms of age, gender, occupati
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
21
Ages of interstate migrants,

Tasmania 2014-15
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
persons
500
Gross i-s
i-s
Departures
i-s Arrivals
NET i-s
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
5 year age group

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
22
Ages of net interstate

migration, Tasmania 19992000 to 2004-5

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
23
Net migration from rest of

Tasmania and interstate, SA3s
2013-14
Net internal migration, SA3, Tasmania, Persons by Age groups, 2013-14
All
ages
0 to
14
Age Group
15 to 25 to
24
44
45 to
64
Region
Hobart - North East
Hobart - South and West
Sorell - Dodges Ferry
South East Coast
Brighton
Central Highlands (Tas.)
Huon - Bruny Island
Devonport
Meander Valley - West
Tamar
North East
Hobart Inner
Burnie - Ulverstone
West Coast
Hobart - North West
Launceston
65
and
over
261
-70
157
110
59
170
135
7
-1
-14
-17
-55
96
48
1
-12
-7
-2
-2
-72
-27
-37
-35
-71
-66
-32
78
21
22
17
42
17
-46
19
71
47
35
21
40
90
49
22
-26
-6
1
-6
-65
-69
-97
-119
-124
-269
-400
13
-64
110
-45
-66
-195
-81
-179
-271
171
-164
-101
-77
-116
8
24
-407
4
-112
-67
-382
82
151
-41
-17
25
-30
-35
7
63
48
98
-15
-31
38
-576

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
24
Origins of in-migrants to
Tasmanias 15 major urban and
rural regions, 2006-2011

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
25
Natural increase and net overseas and interstate migration flows for Tasmania by quarter,
1981-2015
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
Persons
NI
Net OS
Net is
ERP Change
500
250
0
-250
-500
-750
-1,000
-1,250
Quarter
Net inter-state migration varies far more than either natural increase or net overseas migration
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
28
How natural increase, net overseas migration

and net inter-state migration contributed to
population change in Tasmania, by quarter,
1981-2015
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
Persons
NI
Net OS
Net is
ERP Change
500
250
0
-250
-500
-750
-1,000
-1,250
Quarter
Total population change is most strongly affected by changes in inter-state migration

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
29
Theme 2: Statistical
geographies

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
30
Data for Tasmanias LGAs is still

available

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
BUT the new statistical

geography is much
better for the analysis
of communities than
this administrative
framework.
In addition LGA
boundaries may well
be changed in the
future by state
government legislation.
Other geographies are
also available: eg:
postal areas, tourism
regions, natural
resource management
areas, electoral areas,
drainage divisions etc
31
The key spatial units

for data presentation by the ABS
Even smaller spatial units

A nested
hierarchy
SA1 used mainly for Census data from 2011

Mesh Blocks smallest spatial unit
with limited data provided
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
SA is short for Statistical Area.
32
SA4s represent the largest
sub-state regions
Australian Statistical Geography

Standard
(ASGS)
Major elements of
Used for data from 2011
ASGS
SA is short for Statistical Area

Tasmania
SA4
Greater Capital City SA

(Hobart SA4 )
SA3
Local Government Area
SA2
SA1
Mesh
Blocks
SA1s are mainly

used in local scale
census analysis
Mesh blocks
typically have about
400 persons and very
limited Census
Tasmania'sdata
2015)
Peter Wilde;
is available
this
Dataat
ABS
33
Australian Statistical Geography

Standard
(ASGS)
Major elements of
Used for data from 2011
ASGS
SA is short for Statistical Area

Tasmania
SA4
Guiding principles
of classification
Greater Capital City SA

(Hobart SA4 )
SA3
Local Government Area
SA2
SA1
Mesh
Blocks
Based on functional
regions at different scales
of socio-economic activity
Eg: journey to work;
local social interaction
A nested hierarchy
Minimum population at
each level
Independent of LGAs
(But data by LGA still
available)
SA1s are mainly

used in local scale
census analysis
Mesh blocks
typically have about
400 persons and very
limited Census
Tasmania'sdata
2015)
Peter Wilde;
is available
this
Dataat
ABS
34
Typical downloaded table with totals for

SA2, SA3 and SA4 levels in geographical
hierarchy

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
35
Tasmanias SA4s
SA4s reflect large
journey to work
functional regions.
They are designed to
allow labour force
data to be published
each quarter.
Hobart SA4 was extended in 2011 but

Tasmanias Three regions have remained
unchanged since 1971
This is the first time

that sub-state
regional employment
data have been
available between
census years.

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
36
There are 15 SA3s in Tasmania, 6 of which are in Hobart SA4
y reflect extended urban or rural functional regions or large suburban agglomera
They vary in size from 6,800-50,000

persons with Launceston an outlier at 83,00
2015)
Data ABS
Peter Wilde;
37
SA2s in west and north west

Tasmania

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
38
SA2s in Launceston and north

east Tasmania

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
39
SA2s in Hobart and southern

Tasmania

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
40
SA1s in Central Hobart
UTAS SA1

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
There are about

1,450 SA1s in
Tasmania with
populations ranging
from 0 to about
1,000
SA1s are primarily
used for the output
of census data each
5 years.
A huge amount of
data collected from
individuals is available
to be downloaded in
many forms, including
custom made tables
using TableBuilder.
41
Mesh Blocks in Central Hobart

There are almost
13,000 Mesh Blocks in
Tasmania.
The only data published
are for persons and
private residences as
recorded by the Census.
UTAS mesh Blocks
Mesh Block populations

in 2011 ranged from 0
to about 400 persons,
with an institutional
outlier with around
1,400 persons.
Mesh Blocks had a
maximum of 148
private residences.

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
42
Theme 3: Population
data for local and
regional Tasmania

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
46
Population in space and time:

Questions to ask
How is the population spread across space?
How does the age and sex of the population vary
between areas?
What other characteristics of the population
show spatial variations (eg place of birth;
education; occupation; place of work; income;
family structure)
How are all these changing over time?
How do the only components of change (births,
deaths, in and out migration) create change in
time and over space?
Where do we look
for
explanations
for the data
Tasmania's
population
and the ABS (TGTA
2015)
Peter Wilde;
47
Data ABS
we map?
Contrasts in local age

structure

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
48
Population of Hobarts SA2s in

2013 and change since 2003

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
50
Population of SA1s for Launceston and north east

from the 2011 census

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
51
Population of SA1s
around Hobart
Census 2011

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
52
Absolute population change in

SA3s in southern Tasmania, 19812011

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
53
Population Density around

Sandy Bay (Mesh Blocks)
Uni playing fields

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
54
Areas with no population (Mesh

blocks)
Uni playing fields

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
55
Age structure of non-urban population in Tasmania, 2011
Source: ABS Census

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
56
Persons 15-29 yrs not in education, Tasmanias

SA3s, 2011

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
57
A snap-shot of Kingborough
Population change in Kingboroughs SA2s
1991-2013
Population of Kingborough's SA2s, 1991-2013

12,000
Kingston Huntingfield
10,000
8,000
Margate - Snug
6,000
Kingston Beach Blackmans Bay
Persons 4,000
Taroona - Bonnet Hill
2,000
Bruny Island Kettering
Year
Population of Kingborough's SA2s, 1991-2013
Persons
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Bruny Island Kettering

Taroona - Bonnet Hill
Kingston Beach Blackmans Bay
Margate - Snug
Kingston Huntingfield
Total Kingborough
Year
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
58
Theme 4: Accessing ABS

data
Tasmania's population and the

ABS (TGTA 2015)
Peter Wilde; Data ABS
59
The ABS home page

(abs.gov.au)
and getting beyond it
Tasmania's population and the ABS

(TGTA 2015)
60
Information, census data and other

data
Catalogue of all data
Information
Census data
Non-Census demographic, economic,

social and other data and description
Regional statistics
Tasmania's population and the

ABS (TGTA 2015)
61
Accessing census data
from ABS Home page (abs.gov.au)

Go to Census Data on ABS Home page
Census Data

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
62
The Census home page

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
63
QuickStats and list of Community

Profiles for Sandy Bay

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
64
Using TableBuilder

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
65
A custom Excel file created

using TableBuilder (data from
Census 2011)
TableBuilder allows you to
compile your own tables
quickly on-line using
instructions which are
intuitive once learnt.
You may then download
them and save them online and download them
later.
TableBuilder Basic is free
to use by anyone but
requires on-line
registration.
TableBuilder Pro is free to
University
Staff
2015)
Peter
Wilde;
66 and
Data ABS
Accessing ABS Estimated Resident

Population (ERP) data
Go to Australias Population on ABS Home page

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
67
Australias Population on ABS

Home page
Australias Population

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
68
Part of Australias Population

home page

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
69
Regional population downloads

page

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
70
Downloaded table
Whole of Australia from

SA2 to State, one State per page
Tasmania always Table 6

Explanatory notes useful!

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
71
Statistics
An index to all ABS
statistics

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
73
Regional (sub-state)
data
Regional statistics

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
74
Selecting Hobart

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
75
Data by Region:
Greater Hobart

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
76
Measures of Australias
Progress

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
77
Economic opportunities

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
78
Accessing GIS files for map bases for

ABS geographies
Go to Statistical Geography on ABS Home page

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
79
Accessing GIS files from ABS Home page (abs.gov.au)

Go to Statistical Geography on ABS Home page
Statistical Geography

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
80
Find the set of boundaries

you want
Digital Boundaries for GIS
Digital boundaries and .csv files are
located under the "Downloads" tab of
ABS Geography publications.
Click on 1207.0.55.001
(Volume 1) for the main
structure of SA1 SA4.
1270.0.55.001 - Australian Statistical G
Go to Data cubes and
eography Standard (ASGS):
Volume 1 - Main Structure
choose the format you wish to
and Greater Capital City Statistical Areas use
Click on other volumes for
, July 2011
other structures. LGA
boundaries, for example, are
in Volume 3 Non ABS
1270.0.55.002 - Australian Statistical Ge Structures and are up-dated
ography Standard (ASGS): Volume 2 - Indig as States revise their LGA
enous Structure, July 2011
boundaries.
1270.0.55.003 - Australian Statistical Ge
ography Standard (ASGS):Tasmania's
Volume
3 - Non A
2015)
Peter Wilde;
BS Structures, July
Data ABS
2011
82
Digital boundaries are under

Data Cubes

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
83
A few final comments

2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
84
A little knowledge is a
dangerous thing!
Data from any source have specific
characteristics and limitations which
it is important to take into account
when using.
ABS are very good at giving easy
access to their methods for
collecting, analysing, revising and
presenting data.
In population studies it is vital to
have some idea of the
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
85
? ! ?
Contact details
Peter Wilde (
wildepetbar@bigpond.com)
Australian Bureau of Statistics
(Population and Census)
www.abs.gov.au
2015)
Peter Wilde;
Data ABS
86

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Tasmanian Geography Teachers Association

Population change in Tasmania:

Ideas to take away

ABS population and other data are free and

(See instructions for downloading these in Theme 4 of this

Regional (sub-state) population and other data

Students (and teachers!) could be encouraged

The ABS is a treasure

population, households, housing stock,

What do you want me to

Graphs of population change in Tasmania

Theme 2: The new ABS (sub-state)

Theme 3: Population data for local and

Theme 1: Population change

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

Annual change in Tasmanias

1983-1993 erratic growth between

From 1994 to 1996

Tasmanias population change,

Tasmanias population change by

Population, 2014 and percentage

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

Main types of ABS data on

Estimated Resident Population

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

Population change, Tasmania,

Year ending March

How natural increase and net migration

Year ending March

Population change = Natural Increase + Net migratio

How births and deaths

Natural Increase = Births - Death

Year ending March

Net reproduction rate, Tasmania

How overseas and inter-state net

Total net migration = net over-seas migration+ net inter-state migrati

Inter-state migration flows to and

et migration = Arrivals - Departures

Origins and destinations of

Gross migration churning = 5247

lation churning means that a stable population in terms of total numbers

Ages of interstate migrants,

5 year age group

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

Ages of net interstate

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

Net migration from rest of

Net internal migration, SA3, Tasmania, Persons by Age groups, 2013-14

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

How natural increase, net overseas migration

Total population change is most strongly affected by changes in inter-state migration

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

Data for Tasmanias LGAs is still

Tasmania's population and the ABS (TGTA

BUT the new statistical

The key spatial units

Even smaller spatial units

SA1 used mainly for Census data from 2011

SA is short for Statistical Area.

Australian Statistical Geography

SA is short for Statistical Area