Definition Probably \s a means to measure the likelihood of the occurrence ofan event. You can express probability ‘real number, between O and 1 or as a percent. The probabllly ofan impossible eventis or 0%, The probability ofa certain event, which must happen, is 1 or 100%. ‘When you gather data by observing an event, you can calculate an experimental probably n order to ‘calculate experimental probability of an event, use the following definition. umter of mes the event occurs een number ofvils Example 1: A student fipped a ooin 60 times. The coin landed on heads 26 times, Find the experimental probability of hhaving the coin land on heads. Pies) = 2 8 20% Simulations: ‘Simulation is an effective tool for finding experimental probability when conducting an actual trill dificult, Fr example, if you are going to take a 6 question true-false qulz and want to know the experimental probably ‘of guessing exactly 2 answers out of 6 correctly. You can use simulation by tipping a coin. If heads represen ‘correct answer, fip the coin 6 times. Then, record the number of heads, Repeat the simulation 400 time Divide the number of times you got2 heads by 100, ‘Theoretical Probability Wen youroa le, the ota posse outcomes ar 1,2, 346, nl 6, The sotofal posse outcomes ie Inv as te sompianpce. oft heoradea probe aie rae shasta Definition Ina sample space tat has equal kay outcomes and an event, A occurs mot thes outcomes, he he tmeortcalprobablyofevent le P(A) = Example 2: ‘You solect a number at random from the sample space (1,2, 3,4, 5). Find the theoretical probability (the number is prime). Since 2, 8, and § are the only prime numbers In the sample space: P(the number is primeExample 3: Real-World Connection Brown is a dominant eye color for human beings. If father and a mother each carry a gene for brown eyes and ‘gene for biue eyes, what is the probabilly of their having a child with blue eyes? Make @ table. Let B represent the dominant gene (brown eyes). Letb represent the recessive gene (blue eyes). [Gene from| mother Bib ene 8 [68] Bb from |e [op ‘The theoretic! probability thatthe child willbe bor with ue eyes is 25%, oF one infour births, Geometric Probability ‘Sometimes you can use areas to find theoretical probability. Example 4: A sircular poo! of radius 10 is enclosed within a rectangular yard measuring 60 ft. by 100 ft. If bal from an ‘adjacent golf course lands ata random pont within the yard, what isthe probabilly thet the ball ands in the oot? Basle over “S e(10)* ” (en) (1060) ‘000 P(e)- 18st 0.0828 ‘The probability that a gol ball wil land in the pool is about 6.26% Extra Practice: 1. Find the theoretical probability of rolling a multiple of 3 with a number cube, Azk 6 3 2. Brown is a dominant eye color for human beings. Ifa father and mother each carry gene for brown eyes and gene for blue eyes, what is the probability of their having a cchild with brown eyes? tf or ast 43. Suppose that all points on the circular darthoard shown at the right are equally likely tobe hit by a dart you have thrown, 4. Find the probability of scoring at least ten points. eb Pai @a ao fort fF Cay 7 Pisin b. P (scoring 20 points) och rT - io Te r* e P ecor's polt), = Gea -4ed . See 1g lor Mor 4, Ina class of 147 students, 95 are taking math (M), 73 are taking science (S), and 62 are taking both math and science. One student is picked at random. Find each Probability. |. P (taking math or science or both & Peaking math or Se TEST le 790, a 5 b. Ptnottakingmatny, TNT ; ing mat notated mets) SK 36M i717 © aking matn battens) Bes > vq 9 31 4. P(taking neither math nor science) 2h 219, 147~ Probability Practice ~ Probability measures how likely itis for an event to occur. You can express probabilities as percents (0% ta 100%), a8 decimals (0 0 1), or as fractions (0,001). A probably of 0 o% means itis LM OSS Ge oven io our A probability of oF 100% means itis (E411 {Cinat the event wi occur. ‘Theoretical probability explains what SHOULD happen ina simulation, umber of specific outcomes THEORETICAL PROBABILITY: P(event)= ©) ral mumber of possible oeomes x) Find the theoretical probability of fipping a coin and having It land on heads. numberof sds vith ahead _ eet etal umber ef ies ZL Experimental probability is what DOES happen. It shows data from a rea.fe simulation, EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY: P(even) mieten ee Ex) Flip coin 10 times, Find the experimental probability of the coin landing on heads. umber of flies coin showed heads Pihends) total mumber of flips ‘We will doa! exclusively with theoretical probability in this lesson, from now on. |. SINGLE EVENT PROBABILITY Evaluate the following probabilities con the roll of single dle number cube) nea zee £ 3. P(tordye Bek 4 prose Zod 5.P@= O epie= 6 | Chad © Evaluate the folowing probabilities besed on puling a card from a §2-card deck (19 ofeach sul): eer Bob (spacey 12 = 7. P (heart) ea | ‘8. P (spade) 62° 4 8. Pracey= Y _ f 10. P(2of Diamonds)= _I Sa” 13 3(1 MULTIPLE EVENT PROBABILITY When the outcome of one event affects the outcome of a second event, the two events are dependent ovents. When the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of a second event, the two events are Indopendlont events, Classify each pair of events as dependentor independent. ets donsesent cl vat Independent fast Una abdomen re ac Spore een etd rae eee Dosis at ait lan an ita rasta pester are independent events, then P(A and B) = P(A) « P(B). peoasoeananiaate anday= LL = Poet man Lob WA and A 14, Paailsandoven= —b 3 ih. a'% Fp two coins, 16, P(heads andneads)= 1 of _ J 16. P(talls and thenaheads)= J J = AO 4 eo “When two events cannot happen atthe same time, the events are mutual exclusive Are the ovents mutually exclusive? Canput hoppe 17, Roling aor #8 on a number cube Yes__ @ reauine mw 48 Rolin an evnunbaroramutitect Son rnber be. No__ (an happen. © ths tame fime Wiha b& ‘We use the word "orto connect mutual exclusive events. Ted multe probabil “vents, we ad the singe probebies | A and B are mutually exclusive everts, thon P(A or 8) = P(A) +P (B). of mutually exclusive weraorsne ff & iQ mrteerereonine 1 1S- ab L sa Bd iy 6) 50 oF lock of §2 cards:Some probability problems involve replacing or not replacing an item. In these problems, we use the same ‘notations that we use n other multiple probabllly probleme: P(A.and B) =P (A) « (8) P(AorB)= P(A) + (B) and two are black, ‘There are 10 marbles in ajar. Four are red, three are green, one is purpl 21. Whats the probabitty of chooana aad orn maria? +422 10 70 22, vnti the probaity of chonng sad mare repSaia ion hing green mari? 23, What th probate cheat reed mach heSne phon ching sch tir 2.226 .3 70°T0 700 So 24, What the probably of chosing #redmarble, keeping not epiacing i), nen picking green marble? rae Ta a 10° % tun 2) 90 15 25, What athe probably of choosing a green marble, keoping It, hen picking a black marble? 32.2. £24 04> Fo IS~More Probability Practice ~ ‘ind the probably of each oven Foren cards abeme aye! noo crn, Asie that youreum acard ter yous, 4. P(pota7) Ysa= Ae 2. P (Queen of Spades) a rowtatiensy —5A= FAG seern Ja he sre tsa W orn “saz hs 7. Peat) a= 8. Part) tht lp 8. P(redSor any 6) Bt She 40. P (sands) 4 bboy ics ALL ob 11. What isthe probabityeftossing@cainStinesinarow and goting heads? "> D ant Mande) ‘A.bag contains 38 red, 48 green, 22 yellow, and 19 purple blocks. You choose one from the bag ata time and Petar — 8 /iaS 13. P(purpie) Yas ; 103 uy, 2A 2 10Sh 14 roots Has 18, Pronandtnenyetow) 4S” 125 “1563S ay, 414 =53 = I 0 =O - 10: peaorpupe) °2as" 7AS THE" AS 1 pgumeensvinay BS BS BAe O ‘(umber cub) tweed, Findon proba, aeeeact 10. prorat E> S 12, peau manson tune, BPE E?> 20, Two number cubes ae osed, What probably feng Land than an von number? aire ao o 6%" EF 12 Jar contains four blue marbles and two red marbles. Suppose you choose a marble at random, end do not replace It. Then you choose: ‘marble. 21. You e¢ § 30 — y 2, Both ofthemarbios you slat rere 2%, As. 23, You sls roe ante 22 nor D 24, You select ared or blue marble and hen aredor blue marble. t