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BSE SENSEX
26,118
S&P CNX
7,946
Cadila Health
CMP: INR328
Buy
Bloomberg
CDH IN
1,023.7
454/285
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
-18/-4/8
284
25.2
Sales
EBITDA
22.4
23.4
32.0
Net Profit
15.5
14.9
21.5
Adj.EPS (INR)
15.1
14.5
21.0
29.4
-3.7
44.5
The management stated that warning letter includes two main observations: 1)
Product-specific batch failure, 2) SOP-related issue. USFDA had inspected Moraiya
facility in September 2014 and noted four key 483 observations. Since then, CDH has
not received any approval for Moraiya plant products. Though no new approvals are
expected for products from Moraiya facility in FY17, management expects ~15 ANDA
approvals over the next 15-18 months (v/s the earlier expectation of ~25-30 ANDA
approvals)primarily from other USFDA approved facilities.
BV/Sh. (INR)
52.6
62.8
79.5
RoE (%)
31.2
25.2
29.5
RoCE (%)
29.7
26.7
33.2
Payout (%)
23.9
29.0
20.2
21.7
22.6
15.6
Apart from Nesher and JVs, Cadila has three USFDA-approved formulation facilities
Moraiya, SEZ and Baddi. Moraiya facility remains the biggest and contributes more
than 60% of US sales. Of the total 159 pending ANDAs, 74 are from this facility,
reflecting huge dependence on one facility. The Baddi-based facility was approved
recently (May-15) by USFDA and production is expected to ramp up going ahead.
USFDA also approved the SEZ facility in 2QFY16 and product approvals are expected
to start coming through from this facility in coming quarters.
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
6.2
5.2
4.1
EV/EBITDA(x)
15.4
14.6
10.3
0.9
1.1
1.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Cadila Health
31 December 2015
Cadila Health
Exhibit 1: Past US FDA enforcement action on Indian companies
Ahmedabad
Nature of
facility
API
Date of
action
31-Dec-2015
Moraiya
Formulations
31-Dec-2015
NA
19-Dec-2015
NA
Company
FDA Action
Unit
Cadila
Warning Letter
Cadila
Warning Letter
Date of Resolution in
resolution
(months)
x
NA
Sun pharma
Warning Letter
Halol
Formulations
Dr. Reddy's
Warning Letter
Srikakulam, AP
API
6-Nov-15
NA
Dr. Reddy's
Warning Letter
Miryalaguda, TL
API
6-Nov-15
NA
Dr. Reddy's
Warning Letter
Visakhapatnam, AP
Formulations
6-Nov-15
NA
IPCA Labs
Import Alert
Silvassa, Gujrat
Formulations
25-Mar-15
NA
IPCA Labs
Import Alert
Formulations
25-Mar-15
NA
Sun Pharma
Import Alert
API
13-Mar-14
NA
IPCA Labs
Import Alert
Pithampur, MP
Karkhadi,
Gujarat
Ratlam, MP
API
23-Jan-15
NA
Ranbaxy
Ban
Taonsa
API
24-Jan-14
NA
Ranbaxy
Import Alert
Mohali
Formulations
13-Sep-13
NA
Strides
Arcolab
Warning Letter
Bangalore
Injectable formulations
11-Sep-13
NA
Wockhardt
Jubilant
Life Sciences
Dr. Reddy's
Import Alert
Waluj, India
Formulations
24-May-13
NA
Warning Letter
Canada
Formulations
27-Feb-13
NA
Import Alert
Mexico
API
6-Jul-11
27-Jul-12
12.9
Cadila
Warning Letter
Moraiya
Formulations
6-Jun-11
17-Jul-12
13.6
Aurobindo
Warning Letter
Unit III
Formulations
23-May-11
4-Jun-12
12.6
Aurobindo
Import Alert
Unit VI
Formulations
27-Feb-11
28-Mar-13
25.3
Sun Pharma
Warning Letter
Able Labs
31-Aug-10
19-Sep-11
12.8
Ranbaxy
Warning Letter
Ohm Labs
Formulations
24-Dec-09
NA
Sun Pharma
Product Seizure
Michigan,
Caraco
Formulations
26-Jun-09
28-Aug-12
38.6
Lupin
Warning Letter
Mandideep
Formulations
14-May-09
20-Jan-10
8.4
Cipla
Form '483
Bangalore
API
20-Apr-09
31-Aug-09
4.4
Ranbaxy
Taro
Pharma
Ranbaxy
AIP
Formulations
26-Feb-09
NA
Formulations
5-Feb-09
25-Apr-11
27.0
Warning Letter
Paonta Sahib
Brampton,
Canada
Batamandi
API
17-Sep-08
NA
Ranbaxy
Import Alert
Dewas
Formulations
17-Sep-08
NA
Warning Letter
31 December 2015
Cadila Health
Story in charts
Exhibit 2: Sales trend
Formulations (INR b)
DF Revenues (INR b)
API (INR b)
16.9
5
5
3
28
3
33
39
3
48
57
71
12.2
22.6
12.5
12.1
6.1
79
106
16
19
23
25
27
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
63
142
212
261
FY10
FY11
FY12
277
6
FY13
12
593
6
652
20.6
-4
10
560
FY14
802
17.7
22.9
-1
11
11
12
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
21.0
One Off
24.1
0
0
18
22
23
32
2
5
31 December 2015
17
-4
16.6
10
17
EBITDA Margin
20.6
10
23
22.2
38
21.9
34
24
357
EBITDA (INR b)
30
Growth (%)
29
23
12.0
57
50
12.0
8.6
14
126
1
6
1
6
0
6
12
15
15
21
Cadila Health
Exhibit 8: Rich ANDA pipeline
ANDA filed
227
106
92
52
47
FY09
FY10
176
148
131
FY11
100
81
66
FY12
FY13
% of sales
139
FY14
159
YTD
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
2
FY10
RoE (%)
35.8
26.7
30.4
22.9
23.7
25.2
25.2
24.9
17.9
31.2
29.7
29.5
2.3
FY11
FY12
FY13
10
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
25
29
32
37
2.1
2.0
2.2
46
54
61
26.7
18.6
FY14
31 December 2015
33.2
16
FY10
RoCE (%)
30.8
37.4
27.5
18
Cadila Health
(INR Million)
2011
46,306
25.6
36,044
77.8
10,262
22.2
1,269
8,993
699
131
8,425
0
8,425
1,064
0
1,064
12.6
7,361
251
7,110
6,333
24.6
13.7
2012
52,633
13.7
41,795
79.4
10,838
20.6
1,579
9,259
1,211
-107
7,941
0
7,941
1,130
0
1,130
14.2
6,811
286
6,525
5,660
-10.6
10.8
2013
63,579
20.8
52,327
82.3
11,252
17.7
1,847
9,405
1,262
-55
8,088
0
8,088
1,188
0
1,188
14.7
6,900
364
6,536
6,536
15.5
10.3
2014
72,241
13.6
60,239
83.4
12,001
16.6
2,012
9,989
1,181
786
9,594
172
9,423
1,060
0
1,060
11.2
8,363
326
8,037
8,208
25.6
11.4
2015
86,514
19.8
68,672
79.4
17,841
20.6
2,873
14,969
613
554
14,910
83
14,827
2,594
0
2,594
17.5
12,233
377
11,856
11,939
45.5
13.8
2016E
97,596
12.8
75,232
77.1
22,364
22.9
2,962
19,401
452
1,719
20,668
-429
21,097
5,676
0
5,676
26.9
15,421
395
15,025
15,454
29.4
15.8
2017E
111,496
14.2
88,082
79.0
23,414
21.0
3,324
20,090
412
1,267
20,945
0
20,945
5,655
0
5,655
27.0
15,290
415
14,875
14,875
-3.7
13.3
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Deferred liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
2011
1,024
20,691
21,715
669
1127
11,034
34,545
2012
1,024
24,712
25,736
904
1185
21,307
49,132
2013
1,024
28,421
29,445
1193
1005
27,946
59,589
2014
1,024
33,366
34,390
1443
961
23,955
60,748
2015
1,024
41,492
42,516
1689
586
23,760
68,551
2016E
1,024
52,827
53,851
2084
586
22,260
78,782
2017E
1,024
63,274
64,298
2500
586
19,760
87,144
2018E
1,024
80,348
81,372
2935
586
17,760
102,654
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
24,004
5,331
18,673
3,963
207
35,612
6,786
28,826
4,492
242
38,726
8,470
30,256
7,356
1,145
41,380
10,142
31,238
8,915
866
46,259
12,737
33,522
7,979
1,544
55,749
15,497
40,251
4,490
1,544
63,493
18,783
44,711
2,745
1,544
70,366
22,373
47,993
1,872
1,544
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
23,263
8,119
7,652
2,952
4,540
11,561
9,379
2,182
11,702
34,545
30,232
10,905
8,863
4,666
5,798
14,660
12,379
2,281
15,572
49,132
34,965
12,136
9,551
5,838
7,440
14,133
11,660
2,473
20,832
59,589
38,845
13,675
11,337
5,488
8,345
19,116
16,189
2,927
19,730
60,749
47,426
15,357
15,884
6,699
9,486
21,920
17,191
4,729
25,506
68,551
58,543
17,951
17,860
13,006
9,727
26,046
19,540
6,506
32,497
78,781
64,179
20,801
20,404
12,982
9,992
26,035
18,680
7,354
38,144
87,143
80,034
23,571
24,367
21,813
10,283
28,790
20,808
7,983
51,244
102,653
Balance Sheet
31 December 2015
2018E
133,153
19.4
101,130
76.0
32,023
24.1
3,590
28,433
367
1,985
30,052
0
30,052
8,114
0
8,114
27.0
21,938
436
21,502
21,502
44.5
16.1
(INR Million)
Cadila Health
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
6.2
8.2
21.2
1.3
20.8
5.5
7.9
25.1
1.5
27.1
6.4
8.2
28.8
1.5
30.5
8.0
9.8
33.6
1.8
27.1
11.7
14.4
41.5
2.4
24.1
15.1
17.6
52.6
3.0
23.9
14.5
17.8
62.8
3.6
29.0
21.0
24.5
79.5
3.6
20.2
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
52.5
39.7
15.3
7.4
33.2
0.4
58.8
41.1
12.9
6.6
32.2
0.5
40.5
33.1
9.7
4.8
29.2
0.6
27.9
22.6
7.8
4.0
19.5
0.7
21.5
18.5
6.2
3.5
15.2
0.9
22.4
18.3
5.2
3.0
14.4
1.1
15.5
13.3
4.1
2.5
10.2
1.1
37.4
30.4
27.5
22.9
23.7
17.9
25.2
18.6
30.8
24.9
31.2
29.7
25.2
26.7
29.5
33.2
1.3
2.6
60
64
69
1.1
2.2
60
76
76
1.1
2.2
54
70
86
1.2
2.3
56
69
72
1.3
2.7
66
65
79
1.2
2.6
66
67
73
1.3
2.6
66
68
82
1.3
2.9
66
65
81
0.4
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
Y/E March
Oper. Profit/(Loss) bef.Tax
Interest/Dividends Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
EO Expense / (Income)
CF from Operating incl EO Exp.
2011
10,262
131
-1,064
-2,067
7,262
0
7,262
2012
10,838
-107
-1,130
-2,156
7,445
0
7,445
2013
11,252
-55
-1,188
-4,088
5,921
0
5,921
2014
12,001
786
-1,060
752
12,480
172
12,308
2015
17,841
554
-2,594
-4,566
11,235
84
11,151
2016E
22,364
1,719
-5,676
-684
17,722
-429
18,151
2017E
23,414
1,267
-5,655
-5,670
13,355
0
13,355
2018E
32,023
1,985
-8,114
-4,269
21,625
0
21,625
(inc)/dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
-4,579
2,683
0
-4,579
-12,261
-4,816
-35
-12,296
-6,141
-220
-903
-7,044
-4,553
7,755
279
-4,274
-4,221
6,931
-678
-4,899
-6,202
11,949
0
-6,202
-6,039
7,317
0
-6,039
-6,000
15,625
0
-6,000
Change in Networth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
-401
406
-699
-1,530
-132
-2,356
-945
10,508
-1,211
-1,845
58
6,565
-1,086
6,928
-1,262
-2,105
-180
2,294
-1,152
-3,741
-1,181
-2,266
-44
-8,384
-1,154
52
-613
-2,952
-374
-5,041
-395
-1,105
-452
-3,690
0
-5,642
-415
-2,085
-412
-4,428
0
-7,340
-436
-1,564
-367
-4,428
0
-6,795
326
2,507
2,833
1,714
2,952
4,666
1,172
4,666
5,838
-350
5,838
5,488
1,211
5,488
6,699
6,307
6,699
13,006
-23
13,006
12,983
8,831
12,982
21,813
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
31 December 2015
(INR Million)
Cadila Health
Sep-15
Jun-15
Sep-14
Promoter
74.8
74.8
74.8
DII
8.4
8.0
8.1
FII
6.7
7.0
6.4
Others
10.1
10.2
10.7
Holder Name
% Holding
3.0
1.1
Name
Designation
Name
Name
Pankaj R Patel
Pankaj R Patel
Mukesh M Patel*
Sharvil P Patel
Sharvil P Patel
H Dhanrajgir*
Dharmishta N Rawal*
*Independent
31 December 2015
EPS
(INR)
MOSL
forecast
Consensus
forecast
Variation
(%)
FY16
FY17
FY18
15.1
14.5
21.0
14.9
18.4
22.6
1.3
-21.2
-7.2
Cadila Health
NOTES
31 December 2015
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Health
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31 December 2015
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