TRNG I HC KINH T TP.

H CH MINH

VN DNG CC TIU CHUN THM NH

D N U T TRONG THC TIN

Application of Investment Capital

Budgeting Criteria in Real Life

Mc tiu
Objectives

Bit vn dng cc tiu ch thm nh d n trong i

thc

Bit cch x l v chn la d n ph hp iu kin

thc tin

Ni dung
Content
nh
Thi
Cc

im ti u u t
d n u t khng ng nht v thi gian

Quyt
Gi

nh khi no nn thay i chic my hin hu

phi tr cho tn dng thit b hin hu

Nhn
IRR

gi d n u t trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn

t thi v

ca nhng d n khng bnh thng

3

Th no l ngun vn b gii hn
What is Capital Rationing?

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Gii

hn ngun vn cng (hard capital rationing): Cng ty

khng c kh nng hoc khng mun gia tng ti tr n mc
yu cu do ngun cung cp b hn ch.

Gii

hn ngun vn mm (soft capital rationing): Cng ty cm

thy rng khng kh nng qun l khi m rng n mt mc
no .

Trong

thc t hn ch ngun vn cng tng i t. Hu ht

nhng trng hp gii hn ngun vn thng l gii hn ngun
vn mm.

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Ngun

vn b gii hn trong mt thi k

Ngun

vn b gii hn trong nhiu thi k

hai trng hp trn, qui lut cn bn ca NPV khng th p

dng nu khng c nhng iu chnh thch hp.

Tuy

nhin, nn tng ca quyt nh u t vn l da trn NPV.

Quyt nh u t phi ti a ha NPV t c (ti a ha gi tr
doanh nghip).

Gi

nh trong gii quyt ngun vn gii hn l d n c th thc

hin mt phn

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Trong

trng hp ngun vn b gii hn trong mt thi k, cc d n

nn c xp hng theo gi tr NPV tnh trn mt ng vn u t
ban u hay ni cch khc l ch s PI.

d: Mt cng ty khng c kh nng vn u t nhiu hn 500

triu ng trong nm hin hnh.
D n

Vn u t ban u (triu ng)

NPV (triu ng)

A
B
C
D
E

100.000
150.000
140.000
210.000
180.000

15.000
29.000
31.000
22.000
36.000

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Cch

gii quyt: Xp hng cc d n theo ch s PI nh sau:

D n

PI

Xp hng

A
B
C
D
E

1,15
1,19
1,22
1,10
1,20

4
3
1
5
2

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing

Cng ty s chn theo th t xp hng PI cho n

khi no s dng ht ngun vn.
D n

Vn u t (triu ng)

C
E
B
3/10A

140.000
180.000
150.000
30.000
500.000

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing

Trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn qua nhiu thi k,

chng ta s dng phng php quy hoch tuyn tnh LP (linear
programming)
D n

Nm 0

Nm 1

Nm 2

Nm 3

W
X
Y
Z

- 70
--- 80
----

- 20
- 90
10
- 50

60
60
60
30

60
50
30
30

NPV
(r = 10%)
6,44
5,30
1,18
1,86

Lu : Cc gi tr NPV c tnh ti nm 0 thi im hin ti

v d n W i hi dng tin chi ra c nm 0 v nm 1

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Tm

mt danh mc u t trong kt hp bn d n sao cho

tng NPV l cao nht vi ngun vn b gii hn nm 0 v nm 1.

Gi

w, x, y v z l t trng vn u t ln lt vo bn d n W,
X,Y v Z, chng ta s tm gi tr cc i ca NPV.

NPV

= 6,44w + 5,30x + 1,18y + 1,86z tin ti max

70w + 80y 100 (ngha l tng vn u t vo d n W, Y

nm 0 phi b hn hoc bng 100)

Vi

+ 90x 10y + 50z 100 (ngha l tng vn u t vo cc d

n nm 1 phi b hn hoc bng 100)

20w

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Tm

mt danh mc u t trong kt hp bn d n sao cho tng

NPV l cao nht vi ngun vn b gii hn nm 0 v nm 1.

Gi

w, x, y v z l t trng vn u t ln lt vo bn d n W, X,Y
v Z, chng ta s tm gi tr cc i ca NPV.

NPV

= 6,44w + 5,30x + 1,18y + 1,86z tin ti max

70w + 80y 100 (ngha l tng vn u t vo d n W, Y

nm 0 phi b hn hoc bng 100)

Vi

+ 90x 10y + 50z 100 (ngha l tng vn u t vo cc d

n nm 1 phi b hn hoc bng 100

20w
0

w,x,y,z 1

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Cch

gii quyt ti u c th thc hin bng k thut LP, tm gi tr

ti a ca hm s mc tiu cho nhng gii hn khc nhau.

Cc

kt qu ca phng php LP s cung cp nhng thng tin sau:

Gi

tr NPV ti a

Phi
Cn

chi cho vn u t tng thm bao nhiu gia tng NPV

bao nhiu ngun vn mi nm trc khi s thiu ht vn u

t khng cn l mt gii hn v ngun vn.

Ngun vn b gii hn
Capital Rationing
Trong

thc t, khi mt d n c NPV dng khng c ngha l thc

hin d n ngay by gi l tt nht.

n ny c th c gi tr hn nu c thc hin trong tng lai.

Tng

t nh th, mt d n c NPV m c th tr thnh c hi

ng gi nu chng ta ch i trong mt thi gian.

Bt

k d n no u c hai la chn loi tr nhau, l thc hin

by gi hoc u t sau ny

Thi im ti u u t
Timing for investment
u

tin, xc nh thi im la chn (t) thc hin u t v tnh

gi tr tng lai thun ti mi thi im.

Sau

, tm la chn no s lm tng nhiu nht gi tr hin ti ca

cng ty bng 2 bc:

gi tr tng lai thun ti tng thi im (t) v hin gi (chia cho

(1+r)t

Chn

gi tr t no em n NPV ti a. chnh l thi im ti u

u t.

Tip:

C th chn thi im ti u u t thng qua tc tng

ca gi tr tng lai thun v so snh vi li sut chit khu.

Thi im ti u u t
Timing for investment
Th

d, bn s hu mt khu rng trng cy ly g. khai thc g,

bn phi u t lm ng v cc phng tin khc vn chuyn
g. Cng i lu th bn phi u t cng nhiu nhng gi g v s
lng g khai thc c s tng theo thi gian.

Gi

tr thun ca g khai thc c cc thi im khc nhau nh

sau:
Nm khai thc
0

Gi tr tng lai thun (ngn $)

50
Thay i trong gi tr so vi nm
trc (%)

64,4
+28,8

77,5
+20,3

89,4
+15,4

100
+11,9

109,4
+9,4

Thi im ti u u t
Timing for investment
NPV

nu khai thc trong nm 1 l 58.500 la

Gi

tr hin ti thun (ti t=0) vi li sut chit khu 10% cho cc thi
im khc nhau nh sau:
NPV

Thi

nht.

(ngn $)

50

58,5

64,0

67,2

68,3

67,9

im ti u nht khai thc g l 4 nm v lc ny NPV cao

Trc

nm 4, tc tng trng ca gi tr tng lai thun hn 10%

(li sut chit khu) v th vic ch i s em li gi tr tng thm.
Sau nm th 4, gi tr tng lai thun vn tng nhng di 10% nn
vic tr hon khng hiu qu.

Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian

Un-equal life projects
Khi

cc d n l c lp vi nhau, s khng ng nht v mt thi

gian khng quan trng.

Nhng

khi cc d n l loi tr ln nhau, s khng ng nht v mt

thi gian ca cc d n phi c xem xt

Nu

xem xt NPV l gi tr tng thm m d n to ra, chng ta phi

gn NPV vo yu t vng i d n. Chng ta ch c th so snh
NPV ca 2 d n c vng i bng nhau.

Trong

trng hp cc d n c vng i khc nhau, c th s dng

2 phng php sau:
Phng

php dng tin thay th

Phng php chui tin t u thay th hng nm EA

Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian

Un-equal life projects
Phng

php dng tin thay th

To

ra mt (hoc nhiu) d n c dng tin thay th cho cc d

n ban u sao cho dng tin ca cc d n thay th mang tnh
cht ng nht v thi gian.

d: xem xt 2 d n loi tr ln nhau sau :

My

NPV vi r = 10%

A1

-1000

900

900

562

A2

-1500

685

685

685

685

671

Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian

Un-equal life projects
Cng

ty cn phi thay mt trong hai my A1 hoc A2 trong sut chu

k 4 nm.

Trong

trng hp ny, s so snh NPV ca my A1 v A2 l khng

thch hp.

Gi

s rng cng ty c th mua my A1 khc cui nm th 2 (d

n ny gi l A1) v dng tin ca n cng ging nh A1.

So

snh NPV ca my A2 vi mt dy cc my A1 lin tip l ph

hp hn.

Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian

Un-equal life projects
My

NPV vi r = 10%

A1

-1000

900

900

562

A1

-1000

900

900

464

A1+A1

-1000

900

-100

900

900

1026

A2

-1500

685

685

685

685

671

Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian

Un-equal life projects
Phng

php chui tin t u thay th - EA

Phng

php ny bt ngun t cch tip cn khi nim chi ph

tng ng hng nm.

Chng

ta hay xem xt mt d n c vn u t 40 triu vi thi

gian s dng d kin l 10 nm.

Gi

s chi ph s dng ngun vn ca d n l r = 5%

40
40
EA

5,18
PVFA (5%,10) 7,217

Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian

Un-equal life projects
Chui

tin t thay th u hng nm c th c hiu nh l

chui tin t m nu c tip tc sut vng i ca mt ti sn,
n s c NPV ging nh ti sn .

EA
EA
EA
NPV =
+
+...... +
2
n
(1+r) (1+r)
(1+r)
NPV
EA
PVFA(r, n)

Cc d n khng ng nht v thi gian

Un-equal life projects
NPV (A1)
562
EA(ma
y1) =
=
=324$
PVFA(10%, 2) 1,7355
NPV (A2)
671
EA (ma
y2)=
=
=212$
PVFA(10%,2) 3,1699
Ti sn

Thi gian

NPV (r=10%)

EA (r=10%)

My A 1

562

324

My A 2

671

212

Thi im thay th thit b hin hu

Timing for replacement
Trong

trng hp trc, i sng ca mi loi my c xem

nh c nh.

Trong thc t, thi im thay th thit b phn nh mt qu trnh

xem xt v mt kinh t ca d n hn l do h hng v k thut.

Chng ta phi quyt nh khi no nn thay th thit b ch thit b

t khi no quyt nh gim chng ta.

Thi im thay th thit b hin hu

Timing for replacement
V

d:

Mt

chic my c d kin to ra mt dng tin rng l 4.000$ trong

nm sp n v 4.000$ trong nm tip theo . Sau n s cht.

Thay

chic my mi vi gi 15.000$ v s mang li dng tin vo

l 8.000$ mi nm trong vng 3 nm.

Bn

mun bit liu bn nn thay th ngay by gi hay ch i

thm mt nm na?

Thi im thay th thit b hin hu

Timing for replacement
NPV

ca my mi v dng tin tng ng hng nm

Dng tin

My mi
Chui tin t 3 nm tng ng

C0

C1

C2

C3

NPV
r = 6%

-15

+8

+8

+8

6,38

+2,387

+2,387

+2,387

6,38

Chi ph cho vic s dng cc thit b hin hu

Cost of using existing equipment

Gi

s c mt d n u t i hi s dng nhiu my vi tnh. Vn

t ra l khi chp nhn d n chng ta phi chuyn thi im
mua my mi t nm th 5 sang nm th 4.

My vi tnh mi ny c i sng kinh t 5 nm, hin gi ca chi ph

mua sm v vn hnh l 500.000$, li sut chit khu l 6%.

Chi ph cho vic s dng cc thit b hin hu

Cost of using existing equipment
D

n mi to ra mt chi ph tng thm l 118.700$ vo nm 4 vi

hin gi l 118.700/(1,06)4 = 94.000$.

Chi ph ny c tnh ring cho d n mi. NPV ca d n c th

m.

500.000$

hin gi ca chi ph mua sm vn hnh ca my vi tnh

sang chi ph tng ng hng nm l 118.700$ trong 5 nm.

Thc

hin d n ngay by gi c ng gi hay khng v thay th

chng vo cui nm th 4 khi m kh nng d tha ca my tnh
lc khng cn hp thi na.

Nhn t ma v
Seasonality
Mt

nh my vn hnh hai my, mi my c cng sut

1000 sn phm mt nm, c chi ph hot ng l 2$/ sn
phm.

Gi nh l mt nh my mang tnh thi v v sn phm

d b h hng. Ma xun v ma h mi my ch hot ng
vi 50% cng sut.

Nu li sut chit khu l 10% v my c s dng mi

mi th gi tr hin ti ca chi ph l 30.000$.

Nhn t ma v
Seasonality
Hai

my c

Sn

lng hng nm mi my

750 sn phm

Chi

ph h/ hng nm mi my

2 x 750 = 1.500$

PV

ca tng chi ph h/ mi my

1.500 / 0,1 = 15.000$

PV

ca tng chi ph h/ hai my

Cng

2 x 15.000 = 30.000$

ty ang xem xt liu c nn thay th hai my ny

bng hai my mi hay khng?

Nhn t ma v
Seasonality

Mi

my mi gi 6.000$. Chi ph hot ng ch 1$/mt sn

phm.

Gi tr hin ti ca chi ph hai my mi s l 27.000$.

Hai

my mi

Sn

lng hng nm mi my

t mi my

750 sn phm

6.000$

Chi

ph h/ hng nm mi my

PV

tng chi ph h/ mi my

PV

ca tng chi ph h/ hai my

1 x 750 = 750$
6.000+ 750x0,1=13.500$
2 x 13.500 = 27.000$

Nhn t ma v
Seasonality
Cng

ty c hon ton ng khng khi ngh rng hai my mi tt hn

hai my c?

Sn lng hng nm mi my
u t mi my
Chi ph hot ng mi my
PV ca ton b chi ph mi my
PV ca ton b chi ph 2 my

Mt my c

Mt my mi

500sp
0
2 x 500 = 1.000$
1.000/0,1 = 10.000$

1.000sp
6.000$
1 x 1.000 = 1.000$
6.000 + 1.000/ 0,1 =
16.000$

26.000$

IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng

Non-conventional projectsIRR
Mt

d n u t bnh thng l d n m trong dng tin thu

vo v chi ra c dng sau:
- + + + + (ch c mt du - dng tin chi ra)

Mt d n u t khng bnh thng l d n m trong dng

tin i du hn mt ln:
- + + + + - hoc - + + - + + +

C hai kh khn khi s dng tiu chun IRR nh gi nhng d

n u t khng bnh thng.

C trng hp khng tn ti IRR thc

C trng hp li c hai hoc nhiu IRR

IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng

Non-conventional projects IRR
Nm
D n
A

0
-25000$

1
50000$

2
- 36.000$

IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng

Non-conventional projects IRR
Nm
D n
B

0
1500$

1
- 3000$

2
2250$

3
-750$

4
300$

IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng

Non-conventional projects IRR
D n
C

0
-20.000$

Nm
1
64.000$

2
-48.000$

Q & A!