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Modeliranje Financijskih Serija 2
Modeliranje Financijskih Serija 2
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
RFTSE
RPROMET
0.197255
-0.096539
-0.009390
0.116631
0.122450
0.004276
1.691284
-0.788395
-2.196086
0.0913
0.4308
0.0285
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.009054
0.005734
2.855615
4868.258
-1479.432
2.727318
0.066209
0.194431
2.863838
4.941439
4.963424
4.949997
2.720543
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Partial Correlation
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
AC
PAC
-0.362
0.016
0.087
-0.030
0.008
0.016
0.033
0.032
-0.021
0.028
-0.028
-0.052
-0.362
-0.132
0.054
0.032
0.018
0.019
0.053
0.075
0.019
0.024
-0.023
-0.084
Q-Stat
78.819
78.975
83.590
84.120
84.156
84.320
84.969
85.593
85.871
86.355
86.842
88.486
Prob
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
LT
H0 1 = 2 = 3 = 0
H1 Postoji j 0, j = 1, 2, 3
P-vrijednost iz ispisa je 0.000, te je ona manja od vrijednsti (0.05), zakljuak je dakle H 1.
Uz razinu znaajnost od 5% moe se odbaciti pretpostavka da ne postoji problem
autokorelacije do zakljuno s treim pomakom.
51.29678
88.24069
Prob. F(2,595)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.0000
0.0000
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/07/15 Time: 18:30
Sample: 10/21/2002 2/04/2005
Included observations: 600
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
RFTSE
RPROMET
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
0.001672
0.028272
0.003135
-0.412663
-0.132035
0.107894
0.113330
0.003968
0.040778
0.040684
0.015493
0.249461
0.790010
-10.11987
-3.245378
0.9876
0.8031
0.4298
0.0000
0.0012
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.147068
0.141334
2.641713
4152.294
-1431.709
25.64839
0.000000
-2.07E-16
2.850844
4.789030
4.825671
4.803294
1.986457
LT
Series: Residuals
Sample 10/21/2002 2/04/2005
Observations 600
160
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
120
80
-2.07e-16
-0.144421
10.13603
-13.09107
2.850844
0.028323
5.544926
40
Jarque-Bera
Probability
161.9964
0.000000
0
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
10
LT
1.456672
7.267817
16.35110
Prob. F(5,594)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
0.2022
0.2015
0.0059
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/07/15 Time: 18:49
Sample: 10/21/2002 2/04/2005
Included observations: 600
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
RFTSE
RFTSE^2
RFTSE*RPROMET
RPROMET
RPROMET^2
8.653008
-0.519023
-0.589610
0.010718
-0.042478
1.33E-05
0.781408
0.747843
0.309373
0.030174
0.026622
0.000255
11.07361
-0.694027
-1.905822
0.355211
-1.595633
0.052407
0.0000
0.4879
0.0572
0.7226
0.1111
0.9582
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.012113
0.003797
17.27913
177349.5
-2558.048
1.456672
0.202196
8.113764
17.31203
8.546825
8.590794
8.563941
1.162707
LT
Problem multikolinearnosti
Provjeravamo da li postoji jaka koreliranost izmeu nezavisnih varijabli.
RPLAG
RFTSE
RPROMET
RPLAG
1
-0.0324
-0.0896
RFTSE
-0.0324
1
0.0029
RPROMET
-0.0896
0.0029
1
Koeficijent korelacije izmeu nezavisnih varijabli RFTSE i RPROMET iznosi svega 0.0029 i
samim time zakljuujemo da ne postoji problem multikolinearnosti. Taj problem bi postojao
da je koeficijent korelacije izmeu nezavisnih varijabli blizu 1 jer onda bi dobili da se
procjene mogu izraunati ali model je tada nestabilan.