:

5 7

7 5

p=0,24

0,58
0,42

0,42

p=0,18

7 5
6 6

0,58

0,58

0,42

p=0,34
p=0,24

S =1

6 6
5 7

, :

p=0,24
p=0,18

p=0,34
p=0,24

0,5
0,4

p=0,240,58=0,14

6 6

0,5
0,5

p=0,180,5=0,09

p=0,340,5=0,17

6 6

0,5
0,5
0,4
0,5

p=0,240,43=0,10

7 5

5 7

4 .
: p( ) = 0,14 + 0, 09 + 0,17 + 0,10 = 0,50

90

.4
.4.1 : ( )
. p=0.4.
5 ?
: 5 4 ,
5- .
: Pr() = 0.4 Pr() = 1 0.4 = 0.6
?

0.6
0.6
0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

...

5 {},
.
: Pr()=0.60.60.60.60.4 =0.640.4 = 0.052 = 5.2%
: W , :
={, , , , , , , ...}
...3
j- , Pr(
) = 0,6 j -1 0,4 :
12
j -1

Pr(W) = 0.6 0.4 + 0.6 0.4 + 0.6 0.4 + 0.63 0.4 + 0.6 4 0.4 + 0.65 0.4 + ...
= 0.4 (0.60 + 0.61 + 0.6 2 + 0.63 + ...)
:

0.6 0 , 0.61, 0.6 2 , 0.63 , ... r = 0.6 < 1

S :
1
1
1
0.60 + 0.61 + 0.6 2 + 0.63 + ... =
=
.
1- r
1 - 0.6 0.4
1
: Pr(W) = 0.4 (0.60 + 0.61 + 0.62 + 0.63 + ...) = 0.4
= 1 ( ).
0.4
S = r 0 + r1 + r 2 + r 3 + ... =

.
..
=PDF
91

 , =
.
= PDF
= CDF
= E(x)
= 2
=
, ..
, .

.5
.5.1 = PDF
,

.
,
f (x): X [0,1] [0,1]
PDF: f ( x) = Pr( X = x)
: PDF
Probability Distribution Function.
.5.1 : .

PDF-, .. .

: : X={0,1} 0,
1. Pr{X=1}=1/2=0,5 Pr{X=2}=1/2=0,5
x
0
1

f(x)
0.5
0.5

52: PDF

0.5 x = 0
f (x) =
0.5 x = 1
53: PDF

54: PDF

.5.2 : .

PDF-, .. .
92

: X X={1,2,3,4,5,6}
1
6

Pr{X=1}= , Pr{X=2}=
PDF

1
1
1
1
1
, Pr{X=3}= , Pr{X=4}= , Pr{X=5}=
Pr{X=6} =
6
6
6
6
6

f(x)

55: PDF-
f (x) = 0.167 x = 1, 2 , 3, 4 , 5, 6

56: () PDF-

57: PDF-

93