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utm_source=eshot&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=19 Jan 15 - Colombia could reach Farc peace deal in 2015

Colombia could reach Farc peace deal in 2015

THE NEXT 12 months could make 2015 go down in history as the year of peace for Colombia. The challenge will
not be easy because of so many interlocking issues, writes World Review expert Dr Joseph S. Tulchin
But can President Juan Manuel Santos government strengthen the national and local institutions necessary to
deal with the consequences of peace between the largest guerrilla group, the Farc - the Armed Forces of the
Colombian Revolution - and his government?
The signals from 2014 are mixed, but the momentum of the peace negotiations, the governments clear will to
provide some form of justice for those displaced by 50 years of conflict, and the continuing strength of the
economy, provide grounds for cautious optimism.
President Santos central dilemma is that each of these factors, plus the continuing activity of organised criminal
bands - known as Bacrims - touch upon fundamental problems which make any political solution more
complicated.
There are three reasons for optimism.
First, Colombia is extraordinarily rich in natural resources and has been sufficiently stable and transparent to
attract the foreign investment.
Second, the international context in which the peace talks are held is strongly in favour of pushing the parties to a
general agreement.
This support will be crucial because the Farc is extremely concerned about the transition process and Colombian
society is distrustful of the Farc.
Third, Colombia the legacy of Colombias internal conflict together with attempts to deal with the illegal traffic in
drugs over the past two decades has produced a form of international scrutiny which has made the work of
President Santos government easier.
Colombia, with all its problems, recorded GNP growth of 4.2 per cent in 2014 - the highest in the hemisphere.
Growth could be similar in 2015.
The most important sector of the economy, energy, will be under pressure throughout 2015 because of the sharp
drop in oil prices. This comes when new discoveries of shale oil and gas had promised to double Colombias
reserves.
The second most important sector in the coming decade is mining. This is a much lower share of GNP than oil,
but is growing faster.
One of the curiosities of this sector is the extraordinary growth in the production of coltan, a dull black metallic ore,
which, like lithium, is crucial in the electronics industry.
The mining sector also suffers from an extraordinarily low level of land titles, in part a product of the massive
displacement of people over the past 50 years.
The most troubling issue for the government, because it highlights the countrys weakness, is that an estimated
63 per cent of mining enterprises have no licence or titles to the land they exploit. Eight-one per cent do not pay
taxes and 75 per cent have no environmental approval to conduct their operations.

The issue of informality is a problem throughout the economy. Evasion of business taxes is estimated to be worth
more than six per cent of GNP. The same study by Colombias Ministry of Commerce estimated that nearly half of
all enterprises were informal.
Informality goes hand in hand with corruption. Transparency Internationals Corruption Perceptions Index places
Colombia at 94 out of 175 countries for corruption.
That does not help President Santos to increase tax collection or improve the adjudication of land titles, without
which the government is unable to push ahead with settling land claims by the displaced or negotiate meaningful
reforms in agriculture.
On the positive side, even the slow advances in providing restitution of land and social services to the displaced
has cut the level of extreme poverty by half among the displaced.
The Santos government is attempting to deal with several of these problems through a comprehensive tax reform.
The construction industry has been the main source of increased employment in the last year and it will be a
powerful government ally in helping to improve Colombias weak infrastructure.
Colombias infrastructure does not look good measured against OECD averages. Only 15 per cent of Colombias
roads are paved compared with an OECD average of 75 per cent. Road building in the countryside is an ideal
way of creating employment and helping the rest of the economy.
The government has announced several road building projects in the northern departments and projects
designed to improve the size and efficiency of ports on the Pacific coast during 2015.
Politically, President Santos second term has begun with a wave of activity.
But public approval for the president has declined each month since he began his term in August 2014.

Dr Joseph S. Tulchin
Dr Joseph S. Tulchin is a Latin American scholar with published research on hemispheric security and
international affairs, citizen security and police reform, reducing inequality and the go ...