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www.cepex.nat.tn

1973

CENTER FOR PROMOATION OF EXPORTS

(CEPEX)

www.jedco.gov.jo

www.syrecon.org

1972

1978

JORDAN EXPORT

DEVELOPMENT&COMMERCIAL CENTERS
CORPORATION (JEDCO)

)
(

FOREIGN TRADE CENTER (FTC)

www.ociped.com

1996

THE OMANI CENTER FOR INVESTMENT

PROMOTION AND EXPORT DEVELOPMENT

(OCIPED)

www.sedc.org.sa

1985

www.CMIPE.org.ma

1981

www.eepc.org

1997

www.paltrade.org

1998

www.bpmb.com

www.promex.dz

SAUDI EXPORT DEVELOPMENT CENTER

(SEDC)

MOROCCAN CENTER FOR EXPORT

PROMOTION (CMPE)

Egyptian Export Promotion Center (EEPC)

Palestine Trade Center (PALERADE)

Bahrain Promotions and Marketing Board

(BPMP)

Office Algerien Promotion du Commerce

Exterieur (PROMEX)

) (
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&

1996

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1991

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EXPORT CREDIT GUARANTEE AGENCY

www.egyptguide.net/ecge

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Net

Investment

GDP

Stability

Siege

ExR

GDP

St

Sg

ExR

NEXP

268.33

743.8

2.969

-461.6

110.48

260.4

763.8

3.033

-451.56

114.56

566.12

271.6

753.5

3.013

-465

111

576

30/09/1994

269.9

773.3

3.018

-465.47

113.33

578.8

30/12/1994

266.25

798.33

2.968

-433.65

124.3

557.95

31/03/1995

269.56

801

2.951

-433

126

559

30/06/1995

267.43

797.45

2.995

-428.2

126.4

554.6

29/09/1995

271

794.98

3.135

-428.9

125.8

554.7

29/12/1995

290.15

821.48

3.111

-471.24

138.23

609.47

29/03/1996

290.8

822

138.67

28/06/1996 609.954

Export

3.203

471.284

Export

Import

Date

Ex

Im

Obs

572.08

31/03/1994
30/06/1994

27/09/1996

608.93

139.21

-469.72

3.192

823.1

292.8

24/12/1996

609.9

139.34

-470.56

3.266

822.4

293.5

27/03/1997

659.48

146.58

-512.9

3.361

925.4

327.65

27/06/1997

659.7

146.65

-513.05

3.592

924.5

328.65

30/09/1997

660.09

147.34

-512.75

3.497

926.2

328.87

31/12/1997

661.83

147.91

-513.92

3.536

925.8

327.8

31/03/1998

740.7

180.9

-559.8

3.597

1036.98

382.78

30/06/1998

741.87

181.26

-560.61

3.667

1037.6

383.67

25/09/1998

742.43

182.26

-560.17

3.844

1036.8

384.74

31/12/1998

745.43

182.82

-562.61

4.16

1036.7

384.92

30/03/1999

907.32

183.03

-724.29

4.034

1127

520.3

30/06/1999

909.8

184.54

-725.26

4.076

1127.9

521.24

30/09/1999

909.23

186.208

1128.3

522.34

30/12/1999

908.94

185.767

1127.8

524.58

31/03/2000

758.13

30/06/2000

723.022

4.276

0
0

723.173

4.153

168.48

-589.65

4.026

1013.5

361.38

760.3

166.6

-593.7

4.084

1089

358.33

28/09/2000

763.44

167.8

-595.64

4.024

1122.4

356.92

29/12/2000

762.9

166.04

-596.86

4.041

893.6

356.8

30/03/2001

781.82

127.71

-654.11

4.192

865.1

328.74

29/06/2001

782.5

125.8

-656.7

4.165

967.6

330

25/09/2001

784.5

125

-659.5

4.356

984.9

325.4

28/12/2001

786.9

125.4

-661.5

4.385

947.6

322.67

26/03/2002

826.11

124.58

-701.53

4.668

839.7

289.72

28/06/2002

830.21

123

-707.21

4.769

776

291.8

27/09/2002

831.44

122.8

-708.64

4.847

795.4

295.6

31/12/2002

833.5

122.5

-711

4.737

853

296.8

28/03/2003

851.71

129.05

-722.66

4.71

870.1

341.24

27/06/2003

856.7

132.04

-724.66

4.332

929.1

342.5

30/09/2003

858.58

133.52

-725.06

4.441

986.8

338.67

31/12/2003

860.2

133.9

-726.3

4.379

963.6

337.77

31/03/2004

902.73

150.13

-752.6

4.528

988.9

317

30/06/2004

900.77

152.5

-748.27

4.497

1003.8

318.9

29/09/2004

898.8

156.56

-742.24

4.482

1120.9

322.3

31/12/2004

895.9

159.66

-736.24

4.308

1084.8

324.9

31/03/2005

822.48

174.43

-648.05

4.361

1034.9

336.13

30/06/2005

820.9

176.8

-644.1

4.574

1077.3

338.42

30/09/2005

816.8

177.53

-639.27

4.598

1180.8

337.5

30/12/2005

820.3

178.63

-641.67

4.603

1266.5

337.8

31/03/2006

727.7

157.25

-570.45

4.665

1126

336.8

30/06/2006

729.2

160.2

-569

4.44

1132.9

335.5

29/09/2006

730.4

155.34

-575.06

4.302

1070.4

339.4

29/12/2006

726.4

153.32

-573.08

4.225

993

333.4

30/03/2007

692.3

150.2

-542.1

4.155

1095.1

327.53

29/06/2007

694.2

151.34

-542.86

4.249

1174.3

328.9

26/09/2007

693.9

150.9

-543

4.03

1147.4

328.2

28/12/2007

692.8

150.1

-542.7

3.857

1118.9

329.4

28/03/2008

693.4

150.9

-542.5

3.519

1126.9

331.6

27/06/2008

695.34

149.5

-545.84

3.378

1187.6

330.9

26/09/2008

699.56

148.2

-551.36

3.421

1180.2

330.32

31/12/2008

697.43

147.74

-549.69

3.802

1145

328.23

31/03/2009

690.23

152.8

-537.43

4.188

1177.3

333.8

30/06/2009

692.39

153.9

-538.49

3.919

1252.1

334.67

 :
Nexp = a + b1 Exr+ b2Sg + b3St + b4GDP + b5I
:
:Nexp ) -(
:Exr )/ (

:Sg ) (

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260.40 .

 , .
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Eviews 7 V 7.1
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NEXP = -188.432 - 78.391*EXR + 0.152*GDP - 0.877*I + 94.556*ST + 66.448*SG

3.682

3.965

-5.756

2.409

-4.183

=t

0.0005

0.0002

0.0000

0.0193

0.0000

= sig

Adjusted R-squared = 84.6315 %,

Prob(F-statistic) = 0.000000,
Durbin-Watson stat = 0.744547
Chi-sequer(Prob) = 0.21

:
. )
(.

. %,

%,
.
. 0.000000
.%

 . Durbin-Watson , dL
)(Autocorrelation
.
VIF=4.48

. ) (Heteroskedasticity
Prob. Chi-Square = 0.21 %

:
NEXP = -188.432 - 78.391*EXR + 0.152*GDP - 0.877*I + 94.556*ST + 66.448*SG

.
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