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Scenario Planning Toolkit

SCENARIO PLANNING: ANTICIPATING THE UNFORESEEN
Copyright 2010 by Mal Warwick

What is the central

question about your
organizations future
that must be
answered?

Strategic
uncertainties

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

DRIVING FORCES
Social dynamics

quantitative, demographic issues:

values, lifestyles, attitudes:

Economic issues

macroeconomic trends:

microeconomic dynamics:

Political issues

electoral:

legislative:

regulatory:

judicial:

Technological issues

direct:

indirect:

THREE SCENARIOS
A. (Things get a lot worse)

B. (Things get better)

C. (More of the same)

TEST STRATEGIC CHOICES AGAINST CONTRASTING SCENARIOS

Scenario

Alternative #1 (Yes, make that

big investment.)

Alternative #2 (No, dont even think

about making that big investment.)

A.

B.

C.

Copyright 2010 by Mal Warwick. All rights reserved.