Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.

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#21
24/06/2013

THI K KH KHN V SP CH : PHN NG CA

CH CHUYN CH VI SUY THOI KINH T
Ngun: Dag Tanneberg, Christoph Stefes & Wolfgang Merkel (2013). Hard times and
regime failure: autocratic responses to economic downturns, Contemporary Politics,
19:1, 115-129.
Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

Cc hc gi xp nhng trc trc v kt qu pht trin kinh t vo hng nhng l do

quan trng nht cho s sp ca cc ch c ti. Bi nghin cu ny cng khng phi
l ngoi l. Bi vit kho st tc ng ca ri ro kinh t n nhng tht bi ca ch c
ti, s dng mu ca 160 ch chuyn ch t nm 1981 n nm 2008.* Hn na, bi bo
ny xc nh s n p v thu np [ngi chng i] nh nhng bin s v chnh tr c kh
nng gim nh nhng hu qu xu ca ri ro kinh t. Trong khi s n p bo v ch
chuyn ch khi nhng e da theo chiu dc nh cc cuc biu tnh quy m ln, th s thu
np gip gii quyt cc mi e da theo chiu ngang th hin di dng chia r tng lp tinh
hoa. Theo nh phn tch, hn ch quyn t do chnh tr (n p mm) phc v nhng k c
ti tt hn vic xm phm sinh mng c nhn (n p cng) hoc bin php thu np. Ngoi
ra, tri vi nhng phn tch khc, khng c bng chng cho thy hnh thc thu np di
dng cc th ch mang hnh thc dn ch s ngn chn c s tht bi ca ch .

1. M u
Nhng cuc khng hong kinh t ng vai tr nh nhng cht xc tc mnh m ca nhng
bin ng chnh tr ln trong sut lch s. T s tan r ca ch La M v cuc lt vua
Louis 16 n tht bi ca nn Cng ha Weimar v s sp t bn trong ca Lin X, suy

Cc tc gi s dng khi nim c ti (autocratic) v chuyn ch (authoritarian) theo ngha nh nhau

NH

Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

gim kinh t gp phn thc y s ra i ca nhng ch chnh tr tn ti t lu i. Do

nhng nn dn ch vng chc s thnh cng hn [trong vic duy tr ch ] so vi cc
chnh th chuyn ch. Nhng cuc bu c t do, cng bng v cnh tranh c t chc nh
k ng vai tr nh nhng chic van an ton, cho php nhng cng dn bt mn thay i
nhng ngi cm quyn m khng cn ph hy nhng th ch nng ct ca chnh quyn dn
ch v mo him hi sinh mng sng hay s t do ca h. Theo nh logic ny, kt qu kinh t
t hi s gy ra nhng e da nghim trng n ch c ti, vn c c im l thiu
nhng c ch phn hi dn ch nh nhng cuc bu c t do v cng bng. Nhng c thc
s nh vy khng? C tht l khi nhng iu kin khc khng i [ceteris paribus], kh
nng tn ti ca ch c ti ph thuc ch yu vo kt qu kinh t? V s ra sao nu nh
khng phi tt c nhng iu kin khc khng i? Liu c nhng gii php khc m nhng
nh cm quyn c ti c th dng bo v ch ca h khi nhng thch thc xut hin
trong thi k kinh t xung dc?
Trong bi nghin cu ny, chng ti khng cho rng nhng nh cm quyn c ti
ch n gin l nn nhn ca s phn kinh t. Thay vo , chng ti lp lun rng trong
nhng thi k thnh tch kinh t km ci, gii cm quyn c ti vn c nhng cng c c
th s dng khc cho php h tc ng tr li v thay i nn chnh tr v chnh sch thng
ngy. Trong s nhng cng c l n p v thu np (Gerschewski et al., 2013). Chng ti
nh gi kh nng d b tn thng ca cc ch c ti trong thi gian suy thoi kinh t.
C th hn, chng ti s dng b d liu Ch Chnh tr Ton cu ca Geddes et al.
(2012) kt hp vi nhng s liu thng k kinh t t Penn World Tables kho st tc
ng ca suy gim kinh t n s bn vng ca cc ch c ti. T chng ti cho thy
rng cc ch c ti c nhng phng tin c th phn ng li nhng ri ro kinh t.
Bng cch s dng nhng phng php n p mm hoc cng v thu np nhng nhn vt
quan trng trong nh nc, x hi v nn kinh t vo ch thng qua nhng li ch vt
cht v chnh tr, tng lp cm quyn chuyn ch c th khc ch li nhng tc ng gy bt
n ca ri ro kinh t. Chng ti cng cho rng khng ging nh n p mm, n p cng
khng mang li hiu qu. S s dng v lc trng trn c khuynh hng to nn nhng hiu
qu khng r rng cho nhng nh cm quyn c ti. Mt mt, tng cng n p cng s
lm tng mnh mt cch tc thi thit hi ca nhng ngi dn chng li ch . Mt khc,
v lc tn bo c th dn n nhng trng im lm gim mnh hn na tnh chnh danh
vn mng manh ca ch c ti v khuyn khch s i lp. V th n p cng l mt
con dao hai li (Linchbach 1987, Opp v Ruhl 1990, Hess v Martin 2006). Tm li, mi
quan tm ca chng ti tp trung vo nhng bin s chnh tr thng b b qua vn c th
lm dung ha s tng tc gia cu trc kinh t v m vi s n nh ca cc ch c ti
(Gasiorowski, 1995).
Bi vit c t chc nh sau. Trong phn tip theo, chng ti s trnh by khung l
thuyt da vo cc nghin cu ng thi v th ch c ti. Sau , chng ti cung cp
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Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

mt s thng k miu t cc mu nghin cu ca chng ti. Phn th t v th nm ln lt

trnh by m hnh thng k v kt qu. Chng ti kt thc bi vit bng cch tm tt v tho
lun cc kt qu nghin cu ca chng ti v xut cc hng nghin cu tng lai.

2. Nhng quan im l thuyt

Bi v chng ti da trn b d liu ca Barbara Geddes v nhng cng s ca b cho
nghin cu ca chng ti, chng ti cng chp nhn nh ngha ca h v s tht bi ca ch
c ti. Chng ti cho rng mt b my c ti nn b coi l tht bi bt c khi no mt
trong ba trng hp c th sau xy ra: (a) mt chnh ph ln cm quyn sau mt cuc bu c
cnh tranh m chnh ph khng ging vi hoc lin minh vi chnh ph c ti trc ;
(b) chnh ph c ti ng nhim b ph trut bi nhng bin php tri hin php nh
o chnh, ni chin hay cch mng; (c) nhng quy trnh la chn lnh o v chnh sch
c thay i n mt mc m tp hp cc c nhn t cch nm cc chc v lnh o
trong b my chnh quyn v tp hp cc chnh sch c cn nhc bi gii lnh o c ti
thay i mt cch r rt (Geddes et al., 2012, pp.6f.). Ba trng hp ny khng loi tr ln
nhau m b sung cho nhau. V th, mc d nh ngha ny c v hi rng th vn khng th
ph nhn c rng trong c ba trng hp, cc lut chi cn bn c trng cho mt ch
ti b bi b hay thay i ng k - chnh l nhng lut l iu chnh s tip cn v
thc hnh quyn lc chnh tr.
V nhiu l do c c s, nhiu hc gi cho rng suy thoi kinh t l mt nguyn nhn
ni bt cho s tht bi ca ch c ti. Theo cch ni ca Geddes, khng hong kinh t
thng c xem nh l l do quan trng duy nht cho s tan v ch (Geddes 2004,
p.26). Tc ng gy bt n ch ca khng hong kinh t nm s gia tng cc mi e
da theo chiu dc v chiu ngang i vi n nh ch . Ni cch khc, trong nhng thi
im kinh t kh khn, ngi dn c nhiu kh nng chng li chnh quyn hn (e da theo
chiu dc), ng thi tng lp tinh hoa cm quyn cng c xu hng chia r nhiu hn (e
da theo chiu ngang), quay li chng li ln nhau, hay t b ch khi i mt vi cc
cuc biu tnh ln (O Donnell v Schmitter 1986, Przeworski 1991).
Tp trung vo nhng tnh ton chi ph li ch ca nhng ch th chnh tr,
Acemoglu v Robinson tranh lun rng khng hong kinh t lm tng nguy c chia r tng
lp lnh o cng nh kh nng din ra cc cuc ni dy ca dn chng bi v nhng ngi
chng i c t th mt hn nu nh tnh hnh kinh t ca h vn xu i. Theo cch
ni ca cc tc gi: nhng thay i ch thng xy ra nhiu hn trong nhng thi k
khng hong kinh t bi v ph tn ca s bt n chnh tr cho c ngi giu v ngi ngho
u thp hn trong nhng thi k nh vy (Acemoglu v Robinson 2001, p.939). Hn th
na, hai tc gi tip tc cho rng nguy c ngi dn ni dy thng c bit cao nu suy
thoi kinh t din ra trong nhng x hi c cai tr c ti ni m ca ci c phn chia
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Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

rt bt bnh ng. Bt bnh ng kinh t cng cao, th nhng ngi ngho b tc quyn bu
c li cng sn sng thay i s phn ca h thng qua mt cuc cch mng (dn ch)
(Acemoglu v Robinson 2001, pp.938f).
Quay sang nhng mi e da theo chiu ngang, Geddes (2004) ch ra rng i vi
dng thng thy nht ca khng hong ch , gy ra bi kh khn kinh t, tng lp tinh
hoa cm quyn trong bt k ch c ti no cng u chia r thnh nhng k u tranh
chnh tr khng khoan nhng v nhng ngi n ha khi h phi quyt nh lm th no
ng ph (p.17) vi nhng thch thc kinh t. Nhng ngi n ha c kh nng sn lng i
mt vi nhng p lc kinh t bng cch a ra nhng nhng b xoa du nhng ngi
chng i mt i sch m nhng ngi khng khoan nhng s cc lc phn i, nhng
ngi ny thay vo chn cch gia tng n p (ODonnel v Schmitter 1986). Ngoi ra,
nhng vn kinh t lm bng n nhng xung t v phn phi [ca ci] khi chnh ph cn
quyt nh phi ct gim v tng u t vo ch no ng ph vi vic ngun thu thu b
thu hp, cng nh u t v tiu dng b nh tr. Th nn, mc d cc nh cm quyn c
ti c kh nng ngn chn nhng cuc ni dy ca qun chng, h vn phi em li li ch
cho nhm ngi ng h thng hn hp ca h c th bo ton quyn lc (Geddes 2004,
p.4).
Thc t l nhng mi e da theo chiu ngang v chiu dc thng cng c ln
nhau, khin cho cc nh cm quyn c ti cng kh nu ko quyn lc hn. Nhng chia r
trong tng lp lnh o cng lm cho nhng ngi hot ng chng i tr nn bo dn hn,
cng nh cc cuc ni dy ca qun chng s khuyn khch nhng ngi trong tng lp lnh
o ri khi con tu c v sp chm ny, v th lm cho nhn thc ca h v s sp ch
sp ti nh l mt li tin tri t tr thnh s tht. Rt cuc, sau nhng din bin chnh
l s sp thc s ca ch c ti.
Th nn l thuyt v tc ng gy bt n ch ca suy thoi kinh t l r rng.
Nhng nhng nghin cu thc nghim c ng h nhng gi nh l thuyt ny khng?
Geddes (2004, p.4) c ng chng, khi b tuyn b tng i chc chn [] rng nhng
kt qu kinh t km ci trong ngn hn gp phn vo s sp ca cc ch c ti? Rt
nhiu nghin cu tm thy nhng bng chng ng h xc ng. V d nh Huntington
(1991) tranh lun rng nhng cuc khng hong kinh t gy ra bi s leo thang ca gi du
trong thp nin 1970 y nhanh tin sp ca cc ch chuyn ch M Latinh
(chng 2). Hn na, nhng cuc khng hong kinh t cng gp phn cho tht bi ca cc
ch chuyn ch chu (Merkel 2010, pp.271ff). Sau cng, suy thoi kinh t ko di
ca nhng nn kinh t X-vit ng u trong sut nhng nm 1980 cng c th c coi
nh mt nguyn nhn chnh dn n s sp ca ch ngha cng sn vo u thp k 1990
(Kotz v Weir 1997).
p dng hnh thc nghin cu vi s lng mu ln, John Londregan v Keith Poole
(1990) tm ra rng o chnh, mt tp hp con ca nhng trng hp sp ch theo
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Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

nh ngha ca Geddes, thng xy ra cc nc ngho hn l cc nc giu. Kt qu ca

h cho thy rng khuynh hng o chnh gim r rt nhng nc c thu nhp bnh qun
u ngi vo khong $2.300 (tnh theo la M nm 1980) v trn mc . Tng t,
Charles Boix v Susan Stokes (2003) cho thy xc sut ca s chuyn i dn ch thp hn
r rt cc ch chuyn quyn vi thu nhp bnh qun u ngi t mc $6.000 v hn,
nu so vi cc nc c ti c thu nhp thp v trung bnh.2 C hai nghin cu ny u gy
ch ti thc t l tnh d tn thng ca ch chuyn ch thay i theo mc pht trin
kinh t. Longregan v Poole (1990) cng nh Boiz v Stokes (2003) cung cp nhng bng
chng thc nghim y thuyt phc rng khng c mt mi lin h trc tip n gin no
gia tng trng kinh t v s kt thc ca nhng ch c ti. Tuy nhin, cn phi ch
rng tt c cc nghin cu k trn ch nh gi tc ng ca qu trnh kinh t di hn n
tnh d b tn thng ca nhng ch chuyn ch. Trng tm ca chng ti khc, v chng
ti nh gi tc ng ca nhng bin ng kinh t tc thi n s n nh ch chuyn
ch. Hn na, chng ti nhn mnh n tng trng kinh t tiu cc ch khng phi tch
cc.
Theo hiu bit ca chng ti, ch c mt nghin cu trc tip kim tra s d b tn
thng ca ch chuyn ch di iu kin kh khn kinh t. Tuy nhin nghin cu ny
c v mu thun vi nhng gi thit ca chng ti. Trong bi nghin cu c trch dn
rng ri ca mnh, Gasiorowski (1996, p.882) phn bin li tng rng cc cuc khng
hong kinh t c th gy ra thay i ch . Phn tch din bin chnh tr 75 quc gia
ang pht trin trong mt khong thi gian ko di, ng pht hin ra t bng chng cho thy
cc ch c ti b nh hng tiu cc bi suy thoi kinh t. Nhng cch hiu ca
Gasiorowski v khi nim sp ch l kh hp. ng ch quan tm n nhng trng
hp chuyn i dn ch. Tuy nhin, trong bi nghin cu ca chng ti, chuyn i t thng
tr chuyn ch sang dn ch ch to nn mt trong s cc trng hp tht bi ca ch
chuyn ch m thi. Hn na, Gasiorowski a ra rt t nhng gii thch v l thuyt cho
nhng pht hin ca ng. Vi s xem xt kh hp i vi bin ph thuc trong nghin cu
ca Gasiorowski cng nh s thiu gii thch v mt l thuyt mt cch thuyt phc cho
nhng pht hin ca ng, chng ti vn d on rng cc cuc khng hong kinh t s gia
tng nhng mi e da theo chiu ngang ln chiu dc i vi chnh quyn c ti v t
thng xuyn dn n s sp ca cc ch . Gi thuyt th nht ca chng ti v th
c pht biu nh sau:
Gi thuyt 1: Nu nhng yu t khc khng i, suy gim kinh t cng su sc th cc ch
chuyn ch cng d sp .
Nhiu nghin cu gn y a iu kin nhng yu t khc khng i vo bi
kim tra v pht hin nhng bin b b qua. V d nh, da trn nhng nghin cu ca
Przeworski (1886, 1991) v nghin cu ca Acemoglu v Robinson, Ora John Reuter v
Jennifer Gandhi cho thy trong thi k suy thoi kinh t, ri ro ca s chia r tng lp lnh
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Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

o v cc cuc ni dy ca ngi dn s c bit cao cc nn chuyn ch t chc bu c

thng xuyn. Do cc cuc bu c cho php nhng thnh vin bt mn trong gii cm
quyn li dng s bt mn trong qun chng v gii tinh hoa, h c th chuyn s bt
mn lan rng i vi ch vo cc chin dch tranh c (Reuter v Gandhi, 2011, p.84).
Ngoi ra, trong bi phn tch su sc ca ng v tc ng chnh tr ca khng hong ti
chnh chu cui nhng nm 1990, Pepinsky (2009) chng minh mt cch thuyt phc
rng nhng ch chuyn ch no m c th xy dng c cc lin minh xuyn giai cp v
to ra c nhng phn ng chung i vi khng hong, th c th tn ti. Khi khng c
mt lin minh nh th, ch chuyn ch s sp .
C hai bi nghin cu u cho thy cc bin s chnh tr u lm xoa du tc ng
ca khng hong kinh t n s n nh ch chuyn ch. Chng ti ly v d ca Reuter
v Gandhi cng nh ca Pepinsky tm ra nhng bin s b b st. Tuy nhin phn tch
ca chng ti tp trung vo s n p v thu np. Chng ti xem c hai nh l nhng bin s
chnh tr b sung c kh nng xoa du cc vn v thnh tch kinh t. n p v thu np l
mt phn thit yu trong kho v kh ca chnh quyn c ti, c th lm gim ri ro ca cc
nguy c theo chiu ngang ln chiu dc (Gerschewski et al. 2013).
Da theo nghin cu ca Selznick (1949), chng ti nh ngha s thu np l mt
qu trnh m qua cc ch chuyn ch c gng bo v v gn gi s ng h ca nhng
nhn vt (chnh tr) m ngun lc ca h c ch chuyn ch coi l ct yu cho vic
thc thi v gi gn quyn lc ca mnh. Qua bin php thu np, cc nh lnh o chnh tr
a vo cn nhc s phn b quyn lc thc t v xoa du nhng ngi c kh nng chng
i. H lm iu ny bng cch phn b chin li phm, v thm ch hn th, bng cch chia
s quyn lc thng qua nhng dn xp th ch nh a nhng nhn vt mi tham gia vo
cc nhm ra quyt nh chnh thc, v d nh cc ng phi v ngh vin. Thng qua nhng
dn xp chia s quyn lc ny, thng tin c chia s, nim tin c xy dng, v nhng
cam kt ng tin cy c a ra (Gandhi v Przeworski 2007, Gandhi 2008, Wright 2008a,
Arriola 2009).
i mt vi nhng vn kinh t, vic a nhng nhn vt then cht tham gia vo
cc nhm a ra quyt nh c hiu qu bi n c th gim thiu ri ro chia r trong tng lp
cm quyn. Trc ht, mt u trng vi nhng lut l v quy trnh c nh trc
nhm gii quyt cc u tranh ni b ca tng lp cm quyn tn ti sn, v khng phi
xy dng li t u. Th hai, do c s tn ti trc ca mt u trng chnh tr nh th,
cc chnh tr gia hp tc vi nhau t trc khi ny sinh nhng vn kinh t. Kt qu l,
s tin tng ln nhau v nim tin c tch ly, thun tin cho vic tm kim tha hip v
hnh thnh cc phn ng chung. Sau cng, vic tham gia vo cc nhm a ra quyt nh
lm tng cng tinh thn ng i ca nhng ngi c thu np v lm tng s gn b
ca h vi ch (Brownlee 2008, p.97). Do chng ti cho rng:
Gi thuyt 2: Thu np lm du bt tc ng xu ca tng trng kinh t tiu cc.
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Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

Trong khi s thu np c bit nhm chng li nhng e da theo chiu ngang th n
p ch yu nhm ng u vi nhng thch thc theo chiu dc. Theo Davenport (2007),
chng ti nh ngha n p l s dng hoc e da s dng nhng hnh pht chng li mt
c nhn hay t chc (p.2). Nhng hnh pht ny c mc tn bo khc nhau. V d,
Lucan Way v Steven Levitsky (2006, p.392) phn bit gia nhng hnh ng bo lc hoc
lm dng quyn hnh c th quan st c (bi c quc t v ngi dn trong nc), thng
p dng cho nhng nhn vt ni bt hay cc nhm ln v nhng c gng kh quan st hn
(nhng thng rt c h thng) nhm gim st v n p nhng hot ng chng i.
Tng t, nhng hc gi khc phn bit gia nhng loi n p cng so vi mm, cng
khai/c th quan st so vi tinh vi/khng th quan st c hay ni v cc bin php n
p so vi hn ch (Earl 2003, Escriba-Folch 2011).
n p mm bao gm nhiu dng kh chu m ch chuyn ch s dng lm
nht tinh thn ca nhng ngi chng i v ph hoi ngun lc t chc ca h. V
nhng bin php ny nh hng ti nhng ngi hot ng khc nhau vo nhng thi im
khc nhau, n p mm lm cn tr hnh ng tp th ca phe chng i (Tucker 2007).
Nu c dng hiu qu, n p mm c th ngn chn phe chng i li dng thi c m
suy thoi kinh t mang li. Theo cch ni ca Soifer, iu kin cho php ca kh khn
kinh t khng i km vi iu kin hiu qu ca mt phong tro i khng c t chc
tt v c quyt tm (Soifer 2012, p.1580). Do , n p mm c th ngn chn kh khn
kinh t tr thnh mt thi im bin c quan trng.
n p cng b ngoi cng phc v mc ch tng t. Bng cch no , ng l ra
n phi hiu qu hn, khi m n p cng dn n mi e da tc th i vi sinh mng v
sc khe c nhn [ngi i khng]. Tuy nhin n p cng cng c nhng nhc im
nghim trng. Th nht, n p cng rt tn km, v n i hi to ra nhng b my trn p
ln. Hn na, sau khi Chin tranh Lnh kt thc, nhng ch n p mnh m - t nht l
nhng ch khng c ti nguyn thin nhin qu gi mt s ng h t cc quc gia
bo tr bn ngoi. Thay vo , cc nc phng Ty ban hnh nhng lnh cm vn v
trng pht kinh t i vi nhiu ch nh vy (Marinov 2005, Allen 2008). n p cng
do c th gp phn dn n suy thoi kinh t thm hi vi nhng hu qu chnh tr m
cc ch khng mong mun.
Th hai, n p cng rt d quan st. N to ra nhiu nn nhn c khi thm ch l
c nhng ngi sn sng chp nhn ci cht. V th, nhng hnh ng n p tn bo c th
tr thnh tiu im gip phe i lp vt qua c nhng vn hnh ng tp th, thc
y cc ln sng cch mng (Kuran 1991, Tucker 2007). V nhng iu ny v cc l do lin
quan, n p cng c cho l km hiu qu trong vic kim ch nhng cuc biu tnh ca
ngi dn (Opp v Ruhl 1990, Muller et al. 1991). Sau cng, n p cng c kh nng kch
ng s chia r tng lp lnh o. Git hi hng lot thng dn c bit l nu ngi dn
biu tnh mt cch ha bnh c th dn n s o ng nhng thnh vin cp cao cng
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nh cp thp trong b my an ninh, nh chng ra ang chng kin ti Syria (Ulfelder 2005,
Chenoweth v Stephan 2011).
Tm tt nhng tho lun v tc ng ca n p cng v mm, chng ti a ra hai
gi thit cui cng:
Gi thuyt 3a: n p mm lm du nhng hu qu xu ca tng trng kinh t tiu cc.
Gi thuyt 3b: n p cng khng lm du nhng hu qu xu ca tng trng kinh t tiu
cc.
Tm li, chng ti cho rng cc ch chuyn ch d b nh hng tiu cc bi suy
thoi kinh t. Trong bi cnh kinh t kh khn, cc mi e da theo chiu ngang v dc n
chnh th chuyn ch s xut hin. Nhng cc lnh o chuyn ch c th i u vi nhng
thch thc theo chiu ngang thng qua cc dn xp chia s quyn lc c th ch ha (thu
np), v nhng thch thc theo chiu dc bng cch lm nht ch v kh nng ca nhng
ngi i khng trong vic li dng s bt mn lan rng trong thi k suy thoi kinh t (n
p mm). Tuy nhin, k c khi hiu qu ca n p mm v bin php thu np i vi s tn
ti ca ch chuyn ch c v ng tin cy v mt l thuyt, n vn cn phi c kim tra
thc nghim. Tng t, k c khi n p cng ng l ra khng gip nhng ngi cm
quyn chuyn ch gi c quyn lc, gi thuyt c v ng vn cn phi c kho st.

3. D liu v thng k m t
T b d liu Ch chnh tr ton cu (Geddes et al. 2012), chng ti ly ra 160 ch
chuyn ch t 110 nc. D liu ca chng ti bao gm khong thi gian t 1981 n 2008.
Da vo Geddes et al. (2012, p.6) cc nc c m ha l chuyn ch nu (a) nhnh hnh
php t c quyn lc bng nhng phng php phi dn ch; (b) mt chnh quyn c
bu chn dn ch tin hnh hn ch ng k s cnh tranh chnh tr cuc bu c tip theo;
hay (c) qun i can thip thay i kt qu ca nhng cuc bu c ng ra dn ch. Tt
c nhng bin s mang tnh gii thch c phn tch u c tr khong mt nm lm
gim cc vn ni sinh. Bng 1 tm tt nhng d liu ca chng ti.
Mt kha cnh quan trng trong phn tch ca chng ti l s s dng nhng bin
ph thuc mang tnh bao qut cao. Tht bi ca ch c gi tr l 1 bt c khi no: (a) sau
bu c cnh tranh, mt chnh ph khc vi chnh quyn chuyn ch hin ti c php nhn
nhim v; (b) chnh ph b ph trut bi nhng cch thc tri hin php v d nh o chnh;
(c) tng lp cm quyn thay i v cn bn nhng lut l chn ra nhng ngi lnh o
v chnh sch n mc lm thay i yu t nhn dng ca nhm m t lnh o c th
c chn hay nhm c th chn nhng thay i ln v chnh sch (Geddes et al. 2011,
p..8). Trong tt c cc trng hp khc, ngay c khi i mt vi nhng c gng o chnh
hay l nhng cuc cch mng tht bi, chng ti cng khng m ha chng l ch tht
8

Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

bi. Vic m ha ny nhn mnh rng mc d nhng s kin nh vy gy ra cc mi e da

nghim trng, chng khng ng n nhng nguyn tc th ch cng nh b my chnh tr.
Tuy nhin, mc d chng ti m ha mt cch kh rng, cc ch tht bi vn him khi
xy ra, ch chim 5% trong s cc cp quc gia - nm trong b d liu. Do chng ti phi
la chn k cng khi a ra nhng bin b sung.
c c kt qu kinh t v trnh pht trin kinh t, chng ti da vo nhng d
liu t Penn World Table 7.1 (Heston et al. 2012). Kt qu tng trng c xu hng bin
ng rt nhiu theo thi gian (Easterly et al. 1993) v cc nc thng phi chu nhng giai
on i xung v nh tr, cng nh nhng giai on tng trng c thi gian khc nhau
(Pritchett 2000). Do , ch ln theo tng trng kinh t trn phng din s khc bit v t
l trong Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP) mi nm s khng lm r c s suy thoi kinh
t r rng. Thay vo , chng ti thy rng s hp l hn nu nhn mnh vo tng trng
kinh t trong thi gian di hn vi nhng du hiu tng ng. V mc ch , chng ti
tnh ton s nm lin tip t kt qu kinh t tch cc hay tiu cc trc khi tht bi ca ch
xy ra ri nhn s ny vi t l tng trng. Kt qu tnh ton ny lm tm quan trng ca
t l tng trng cng tng khi thi gian pht trin hoc suy thoi kinh t ca ch chuyn
ch cng di.3 Chng ti tnh ton trnh pht trin kinh t chung bng cch s dng GDP
trn u ngi da trn sc mua tng ng (PPP) theo gi tr khng i ca ng la
M nm 2005. Do chnh lch qu mc, ch s sau c ghi li trong bi phn tch.
Bng 1: Gi tr trung bnh v khong bin thin ca mu
N Trung bnh lch chunNh nht Ln nht
Tht bi ch

2061

0.05

Tng trng KT c iu chnht-1 theo %

1911

9.66

28.97

- 250.50

283.40

T do chnh tr t-1

1903

5.78

1.95

S ton vn v sinh mng t-1

1882

4.12

2.11

Khng c cc ng phi tham gia ngh vin t-1 1943

0.23

Mt ng duy nht tham gia ngh vin t-1

1943

0.27

Nhiu ng tham gia ngh vin t-1

1943

0.49

GDP thc t/u ngi t-1 theo $

1819 4528.8

8292.59

168.6

64,103.2

Ch qun s t-1

1951

0.11

Ch c ng t-1

1951

0.49

Ch qun ch t-1

1951

0.10

Ch c nhn t-1

1951

0.29

2061

9.96

7.25

28

Ghi ch : lm trn n 1 ch s thp phn

Ngun : Cheibub et al. (2010), Cingranelli v Richards (2010), Teorell et al. (2011), Banks v
Wilson (2012)m Geddes et al. (2012) v Heston et al. (2012)

Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

Chng ti da vo Bng d liu v quyn con ngi CIRI (Cingranelli v

Richards 2010) tnh ton mc n p. Chnh quyn chuyn ch bp nght s phn
khng ca cng chng bng cch kim ch cc quyn t do chnh tr nh quyn cng nhn,
quyn t quyt bu c cng nh quyn t do ngn lun v hi hp. Chng ti coi nhng
trng hp ny l n p mm. o ngc v cng tng kt qu tng mc CIRI, chng ti
xy dng mt thang o 9 im t 0 im khi chnh ph hon ton tn trng nhng quyn
ny ti 8 im nu chnh ph vi phm ton b chng. Qua bng 1, c th thy r l tt c cc
cp n p mm u c trnh by trong mu ca chng ti v im trung bnh 5.8 cho
thy phn ln cc ch kh hn ch v quyn t do chnh tr. Bc tranh ny khc bit mt
cht i vi n p cng. S dng thng tin CIRI v cc v tra tn, hnh quyt khng qua
xt x, mt tch, cm t chnh tr, ch s ny cho thy s thiu tn trng ca chnh ph ti
quyn ton vn sinh mng c nhn s dng cng thc o nh n p mm. Mt ln na, tt
c cc mc n p cng u c mt trong mu nghin cu. Tuy nhin cc ch chuyn
ch c xu hng t s dng n p cng, th hin im trung bnh 4.1.
S lng cc ng tham gia quc hi c cung cp bi b d liu Dn ch v c
ti (Cheibub et al. 2010) l cch thc chng ti o lng mc thu np. Jennifer Gandhi
v Adam Przeworski (2007, p.1280) cho thy cc c quan lp php c nhiu ng phi kt
np cc th lc i lp tim tng, mang li cho h mt s li ch trong vic duy tr s tn ti
ca chnh quyn (xin so snh vi Gandhi v Przeworski 2006). Do , c lng mc
thu np, chng ti gi thit rng c cng nhiu cc ng tham gia quc hi th chng t
ch chuyn ch cng chu kh u t cc ch th chnh tr khc c mt phn li ch
trong vic m bo s tn ti ca ch . Tng t vi kt qu ca nhng nghin cu khc
(Svolik 2012, chng 6), phn ln cc ch chuyn ch u cho php s tn ti nhiu
ng phi chnh tr trong quc hi. Nhng ch ch c mt hoc khng c ng phi no
tham gia quc hi mi loi ch chim khong mt phn t s mu c kho st.
Chng ti kim sot cc loi ch bng cch s dng cch phn loi ch sp
ca Geddes et al. (2011)4 xem xt cc ng lc khc nhau c th nh hng n xc sut
tht bi ca ch . Mt quan im ch yu trong cc nghin cu ng thi v cc ch
chuyn ch l cc ng lc chnh tr trong cc ch phi dn ch thay i r rt theo tng
loi. Chng khc nhau mt cch h thng v ngun gc (Smith 2004, 2005, Wright 2008a),
m hnh tng tc ca tng lp u t (Geddes 1999), kh nng duy tr s tn ti (Hadenius
v Teorell 2007, Magaloni v Kricheli 2010), v kt qu chnh tr ca chng (Wright 2008b,
Frantz v Ezrow 2011, Gehlback v Keefer 2010). i vi nghin cu ca mnh, chng ti
coi loi ch l mt bin s kh d c th bao hm tt c nhng ng lc trn vn c th
cnh tranh vi nh hng ca kt qu pht trin kinh t, n p, v thu np. Tuy nhin, mc
ng tin cy ca s phn loi vn cn gy tranh ci (Svolik 2012, pp. 21ff). Nh bng
1 cho thy, cc ch da trn ng phi chim mt na s mu ca chng ti, tip l

10

Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

cc ch c nhn. Cc ch qun s v qun ch mi loi chim gn 10% trong tng s

mu.
Thi gian tn ti lin tc ca ch t gip xy dng m hnh ph thuc thi gian ca
d liu. Da trn phng php xut bi Carter v Signorino (2010), chng ti bt u
nghin cu t nm 1981 v tip tc quan st n khi mt ch tht bi hay khi thi hn
quan st kt thc nm 2008. Cc ch chuyn ch trong mu c thi gian tn ti trong
khong t 1 nm n 28 nm.

4. M hnh
Tht bi ca ch chuyn ch nh c nh ngha trn l mt s kin tru tng di
dng dn ch ha, thay i kiu ch hay nhng thay i ng k trong i ng lnh o
chnh tr. Chng ti kt hp nhng s kin ny trong mt bin ph thuc nh nguyn v s
dng php hi quy logistic phn tch tc ng ca nhng yu t quyt nh v kinh t,
n p, thu np v kiu ch . M hnh c bn ca chng ti c th hin trong phng
trnh (1):

Trong

l xc sut ca tht bi ch thy c trong quan st

da trn tp

cc bin c lp x cho quan st , l cc h s hi quy, l h s chn (intercept term),

v e l hng s t nhin. V mu c quan st c dng chui thi gian ct ngang hng nm,
c kh nng cc quan st ring l tm thi tng quan, vi phm nhng gi thit thng k c
bn. iu ny thng dn n nhng kt lun qu mc lc quan (Beck et al. 1998,
p.1261). Trong thp k va qua, khoa hc chnh tr thng tun theo nhng hng dn ca
Beck et al. (1998) phc ha m hnh ph thuc thi gian vi s tr gip ca cc bin gi
v dc splines. Tuy nhin, khi thi gian quan st ko di hn, cc bin gi v thi gian
tr nn kh kim sot v chu nh hng bi vn phn tch, trong khi vic din gii
dc splines yu cu rt nhiu cng sc. Do , chng ti da vo phng php a ra bi
Carter v Signorino 92010), s dng cc a thc bc 3 ca thi gian tn ti lin tc ca ch
xc nh ng lc thi gian ca d liu. M hnh kt qu c xc nh phng
trnh (2), trong t l khong thi gian tn ti lin tc ca ch v tt c nhng yu t
khc gi nguyn cch nh ngha nh trn :

11

Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

Mt im cui cng cn phi c cp trc khi i n nhng kt qu thc

nghim ca chng ti. 102 trong s 160 ch chuyn ch trong mu b sp mt
thi im no . iu ny c v nh l to thun li cho vic c lng thng k. Tuy
nhin, mi th thay i mt khi chui thi gian t nhin ca d liu c a vo. Kt qu
l 102 ch tht bi gi c so snh vi 1959 cp nc-nm m khng c ch no tht
bi. Do , bin ph thuc ca chng ti thay i ch trong khong 5% ca s quan st hng
nm. Cc quy trnh ph bin ca phn tch s liu thng k, chng hn nh php hi quy
logistic ca chui thi gian nh nguyn s dng y c th nh gi qu thp xc sut ca
nhng s kin him (King v Zeng 2001, p.138). Ni n gin, nhn chung m hnh khng
ni c ht tm quan trng ca cc bin gii thch ca chng ti. V th, chng ti khng
trc tip ch trng vo ln tuyt i ca tc ng d kin, m ch quan tm ti vic mi
yu t tin on c din ra nh d kin hay khng v liu kt qu tng trng kinh t c
phi l mt yu t c kh nng tin on s tht bi ca cc ch hay khng, nu chng ta
tnh ti cc yu t n p v thu np.

5. Kt qu
Nghin cu ca chng ti tri qua rt nhiu bc. Trc tin, chng ti b 5% s cp ncnm, bi v mt s lng nh cc quan st lm sai lch rt ln s phn b tc tng trng
c iu chnh. Thc t, 95% cc gi tr nm trong khong -23 n 80, t hn ng k
phm vi ti a c ghi nhn trong Bng 1. lm gim nh hng ca nhng quan st xa
phm vi , chng ti ct gn mu ti cc im phn v 2.5% v 97.5%. Th hai, cng
vic din gii d dng hn, ch s tng trng c o ngc, nhn vi -1. Kt qu l
nhng s ln hn th hin vn tng trng kinh t cng nghim trng hn. Th ba, chng
ti b tt c nhng quan st thiu d liu v bt c bin no gi cho quy m mu n nh.
Quyt nh ny cho php chng ti so snh tm quan trng ca tng h s trn khp cc
mu. Sau hai vng loi b bt cc trng hp, cn li 1.675 cp nc-nm. Cui cng
chng ti c tnh mt m hnh c s ch gm tc tng trng kinh t c iu chnh
v o ngc v cc ch s ph thuc thi gian. Tt c nhng yu t tin on khc c
a vo phn tch tng bc mt. Bng 2 trnh by kt qu ca chng ti s dng cc ch
da trn ng phi nh l nhm quy chiu v dng ch , v cc quc hi c ng nh l
nhm quy chiu cho yu t thu np.
V suy gim kinh t, cc kt qu khng nh gi thuyt u tin ca chng ti. H s
tc tng trng kinh t c iu chnh v o ngc l dng v ng k v mt thng
k trong m hnh c s cng nh khi tnh ti cc loi ch . Do khi cc ch chuyn
ch i mt vi cc vn tng trng kinh t cng di v cng nghim trng th cng c xu
hng dn n tht bi ch . Nhng vic a vo cc thng tin v n p v thu np m
hnh III lm tng gp i tr s p ca tng trng kinh t t 0.03 ln 0.06. Kt qu l, tc
ng ny khng cn ng k v mt thng k mc tin cy thng thng na.5 Hn th, cc
12

Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

kim tra Likelihood-ration b sung cho thy m hnh III khp vi cc d liu hn nhiu so
vi hai m hnh gin lc kia. Do chng ti tm thy bng chng thc nghim cho gi
thuyt rng cc ch chuyn ch c cc phng tin kh dng cho php h khc ch vn
thnh tch kinh t yu km. Xem xt k lng nhng phng tin cho thy nhng kt
qu th v.
Bng 2. Nhng nhn t quyt nh tht bi ca ch chuyn ch, 1981-2008
I
Hng s
-1*(tng trng kinh t c iu chnh t-1 )

II

- 2.42 (0.00) - 3.00 (0.01)

0.02 (0.02)

0.02 (0.03)

III
- 1.57 (0.19)
0.02 (0.06)

Khng c cc ng tham gia quc hi t-1

- 0.31 (0.41)

C nhiu ng tham gia quc hi t-1

- 0.53 (0.13)

T do chnh tr t-1

- 0.24 (0.00)

Tnh ton vn sinh mng c nhn t-1

0.10 (0.10)

Log (GDP/u ngi t-1 tnh bng $)

- 0.05 (0.67)

- 0.09 (0.47)

Ch qun s t-1

1.77 0.00)

1.79 (0.00)

Ch qun ch t-1

- 0.97 (0.20)

- 0.49 (0.53)

Ch c nhn t-1

0.51 (0.08)

0.54 (0.07)

- 0.12 (0.49) - 0.07 (0.70)

- 0.05 (0.76)

T
T2
3

T /1000

0.01 (0.44)

0.01 (0.43)

0.01 (0.52)

- 0.44 (0.33) - 0.47 (0.30)

- 0.36 (0.41)

Log-likelihood

- 321.55

- 301.72

- 295.16

Tiu chun thng tin Akaike (AIC)

653.09

621.43

616.32

1675

1675

1675

Ghi ch: Nhng tr s p trong ngoc, s lng c on in m: p<0.05; t3 chia cho 1000 gii
quyt vn bt n nh ca s liu (Carter v Signorio 2010).

Trc ht, n p mm v n p cng l nhng cng c c cng dng khc nhau i vi

vic duy tr quyn lc. Ph hp vi gi thit H3, h s v vi phm quyn t do chnh tr l
m v ng k v mt thng k.
V th, bng vic kim sot nhng yu t khc, cc ch chuyn ch cng t c xu
hng tht bi th chng cng hn ch nhiu hn quyn ca ngi lao ng, quyn t quyt
bu c cng nh t do ngn lun v hi hp. Ngc li, h s v tnh ton vn sinh mng c
nhn l dng. Do , cng t tn trng nhng quyn con ngi c bn, nh quyn c
sng v an ninh c nhn, th ch chuyn ch cng d tht bi (Davenport 2007, p.2). Do
tc ng ny khng ng k v mt thng k, n khng tri ngc vi gi thit H3b ca
13

Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

chng ti. Tuy nhin n phn nh cu ni ca ngi Ty Ban Nha rng bn c th tn dng
nhng li l theo nhiu cch nhng bn khng th ngi ln n.
V thu np, kt qu ca chng ti mt mc no l kh bt ng. H s m
bng 2 ni ln rng so vi cc ch ch c mt ng, cc ch khng c cc ng tham
gia ngh vin v cc ch c nhiu ng tham gia ngh vin u t c nguy c tht bi ch
hn. Trong trng hp c nhiu ng tham gia ngh vin th iu ny l d hiu, nu nh
chng ta kt lun rng khi c nhiu ng s c trng hp mt s lc lng chnh tr c t
chc s sn sng tham gia nm quyn m khng cn phi thch thc ch (Linz 1973,
p.191). V th chng ti c th ni rng nhm ny i din cho trng hp cc ch c
tnh thu np cao.
Theo logic ny, nhng ch khng c cc ng trong quc hi t thc hin vic thu
np hn v v th c xu hng gp phi tht bi nhiu hn. Nhng kt qu ca chng ti
khng ng h gi nh ny. Hn na, cc h s trong c hai trng hp u khng ng k
v mt s liu, lm cho gi thuyt H2 ca chng ti khng c xc thc. iu ny c th l
kt qu ca khong thi gian quan st, vn do nhng hn ch d liu v n p, ch bt u
vo nm 1981 v chng kin cc ch tht bi m khng ghi nhn s thnh cng ca ch
cai tr c ng Lin X v cc nc tng t. Tuy nhin, cng c th l vic xc nh
yu t thu np ch da trn s lng cc ng tham gia ngh vin l qu hp, cha tnh ti
cc dng thu np khc thnh cng hn (Schmotz v Tanneberg 2012).

6. Tho lun
Kt qu thc nghim u tin trong nghin cu ca chng ti xc nhn cc cng trnh thc
nghim v l thuyt trc cho rng cc ch chuyn ch s khng hot ng tt nu gp
phi kh khn kinh t ko di. Cc ch chuyn ch thiu nhng chic van an ton di
dng cc cuc bu c dn ch v chng khng c g khc ngoi kt qu pht trin kinh t
bin minh cho s ph nhn cc quyn v t do cn bn nu nh ngun h tr thc h b
cn kit hay khng tn ti ngay t u. Thc t, s nh i gia cc quyn chnh tr vi s
no m v vt cht thng l c im ct li ca cc nh nc chuyn ch, da trn pht
trin kinh t v phi thc h. Nu nh s nh i ny chuyn thnh nhng li ha ho
khng mang li cho cng dn bt c iu g khc ngoi gii lnh o bt ti v n p, th
cc ch chuyn ch tr nn c bit d b tn thng bi suy thoi kinh t v v th d
sp hn.
D nhin l c nhng ngoi l cho quy lut ny. Bc Triu Tin mt trong cc ch
chuyn ch ngho nht, n p nht v tn ti dai dng nht ngy nay xut hin trong
suy ngh ca chng ta, nhng ngoi ra cn c Cuba, Uzbekistan, v mt vi nh nc khc.
Bi v Bc Triu Tin v Cuba l nhng pho i cui cng ca ch ngha cng sn cn tn
ti n nay, c th hiu c rng tnh chnh danh ca hai ch ny khng bt ngun ch
14

Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

yu t s h tr c th m kt qu pht trin kinh t mang li, m xut pht t s h tr

phn tn c to ra bi nn tng thc h mnh m, cc truyn thng v gio dc t
tng (Easton 1979[1965]). ng tic l khi thiu nhng d liu ng tin cy, chng ta
khng th a vo xem xt cc yu t h tr phn tn ny hay kim tra trc tip xem liu
h t tng c th b p cho vic tng trng kinh t yu km hay khng. V vy, tr khi
chng tin rng tnh chnh danh hon ton khng quan trng i vi s tn ti ca cc ch
chuyn ch (Przeworski 1992, p.107), chng ta cn nhiu nghin cu hn v cc nn tng
ca tnh chnh danh ca cc ch chuyn ch.6
Nhng nghin cu sau ny cng c th hu dng khi so snh nhng kt qu ca
chng ti vi nhng kt qu thc nghim ca Gasiorowski (1995). Nu chng ti lp li bi
nghin cu ca ng y 20 nm sau m vn cho thy nhng ri ro kinh t him khi dn ti
cc qu trnh chuyn i dn ch, th chng ta s gp phi mt h qu th v: cc cuc khng
hong kinh t lm gia tng vin cnh tht bi ca cc ch chuyn ch nhng him khi dn
ti qu trnh chuyn i sang dn ch. iu ny tri ngc vi nhng phng php tip cn
coi tht bi ca ch chuyn ch sau cc cuc suy thoi kinh t l ngi n kch ng nhng
ngi dn khng c quyn bu c ni dy chng li ch c ti mt tnh chnh danh
(Acemoglu v Robinson 2001). Thay vo , n s gi ln rng ri lon kinh t thng dn
n tht bi ca ch chuyn ch thng qua s chia r ca tng lp lnh o (Geddes
1999). Cc nghin cu b sung vi mt bin ph thuc phn tch c th a ra nhng cu
tr li chc chn hn.
Nhng khng ch bin ph thuc c th c phn bit chi tit hn m pha bn phi
ca phng trnh cng cn b sung thm cc yu t khc. iu ny c bit ng i vi
tng trng kinh t. Cc ch chnh tr qu phc tp c th m hnh ha s phn ca
chng bng mt hm s duy nht da trn ch cc tham s kinh t. Chng ti lp lun
u bi rng khng phi cu trc m l hnh ng chnh tr, b gii hn bi cc kt cu c
hi c th, quyt nh s tn ti hay sp ca cc ch chuyn ch. Phn tch ca chng
ti ni ln im . Vic a vo xem xt yu t n p v thu np lm thay i kt qu
phng trnh kinh t n gin mt cch r rng, cho thy tm quan trng ca cc bin php
hnh ng m tng lp lnh o chuyn ch thc hin.
Thu np c xem nh l phng tin chnh m cc nh cm quyn chuyn ch s
dng c gng chng li mi e da theo chiu ngang ca s chia r tng lp lnh o m
Geddes v nhng ngi khc nghin cu. Tht ra, cc nghin cu gn y v s n nh
ca cc ch chuyn ch gn nh ch ch trng vo tng lp tinh hoa cm quyn v cch
cc ch chuyn ch c gng gn gi s gn kt ca tng lp ny. (Geddes 2004, Gandhi
v Przeworski 2007, Magaloni 2008, Boix v Svolik 2013). Nhng kt qu ca chng ti
khng xc nhn tm quan trng ca bin php thu np nh l mt phng tin bo v s tn
ti ch di p lc kinh t. Tuy nhin, khi nim thu np ca chng ti ch bao gm hai
th ch hp tc chnh thc l cc ng phi v cc quc hi. Tuy nhin cc th ch
15

Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

chnh thc v khng chnh thc khc cng c th ng vai tr quan trng (Stefes 2006,
Darden 2008).
Mc d vy, chng ti khng c php gi thit rng tt c cc th ch u tin
hnh cng mt chc nng tt nh nhau ti mi thi im, hay trong bt c hon cnh no.
Nhng nghin cu gn y chng minh r rng, ty vo ngun gc ca chng v nhng yu
t bn ngoi, cc th ch nh bu c, ngh vin, ng phi, v ta n c th gip n nh
nhng cng c th gy bt n cho cc ch chuyn ch (Osborne v Rubinstein 1994,
Smith 2005, Brownlee 2007, Ginburg v Moustafa 2008, Lindberg 2009). V th chng ti
khng ph nhn rng s thu np c kh nng lm du cc nh hng xu ca suy thoi kinh
t n cc ch chuyn ch. Tuy nhin, cc kt qu t nghin cu vi s mu ln ca
chng ti vn mu thun vi nhn thc thng thng rng thu np l mt cng c hiu qu
ca tng lp tinh hoa cm quyn chuyn ch nhm vt qua kh khn kinh t. Thu np c
th l mt cng c hiu qu n nh ha cc ch chuyn ch trong di hn. Tuy nhin,
trong ngn hn v trung hn sau suy thoi kinh t, n c v l mt v kh khng sc bn
c th cu vn ch chuyn ch khi sp .
Ni n n p, nghin cu ca chng ti cho thy chc chn rng n p mm ng
mt vai tr quan trng trong vic hp thu nhng tc ng gy bt n ca suy thoi kinh t.
Chng ti s dng cc hn ch quyn t do chnh tr, vn v biu hin bao gm mt phm vi
ng k cc hnh hc n p mm. Tuy nhin s cch thc khn kho nhm bp nght hot
ng chng i ln hn hiu, t ng bng ti khon cng ty, nh ch hay rt giy php
kinh doanh bo m duy tr lng trung thnh ca tng lp tinh hoa kinh t, n cc v
kin ti vu co nhm bt ming nhng nh bo hay ph phn, v nhng chuyn thm thng
xuyn ca cc v thanh tra thu nhm lm kinh s cc t chc phi chnh ph. V d, nhng
nghin cu gn y ch ra rng kim sot ca cc nc i vi nn kinh t c v lm cng
c thm ch chuyn ch (ODonnell 1996, Way 2012).7 Cn phi c mt nghin cu chi
tit hn v tc ng ca n p mm lm vng chc thm nhng gi nh l thuyt v kt
qu thc nghim ca chng ti.
Mt pht hin khc ca nghin cu ny lin quan n tc ng ca n p cng.
Trong khi gi nh l thuyt rng n p cng c th phn tc dng l c l, th cc bng
chng thc nghim h tr iu ny li rt t v khng ng k v mt thng k. Hi na,
chng ti cn phi ghi nh rng chng ti xem xt n p cng ch trong thi gian ngn
ngay trc khi ch sp , v thi gian ny nhn chung din ra cng lc vi nhng ri
lon kinh t. Tuy nhin, cc lnh o chuyn ch c th tng mc n p cng nu lng
trc ri loi kinh t s din ra. Trong trng hp , chng ta c kh nng chng kin cc
cuc o ng ca binh lnh v s rn nt trong gii lnh o cp cao ca lc lng v trang,
bi qun i khng phi lun c hun luyn n p ngi dn trn quy m ln. Qun
i tng l mt cng c n p hiu qu M Latinh, Syria, Trung Quc v mt s nc
chu khc, nhng n tr nn v dng i vi nhng nh cm quyn chuyn ch Ai Cp,
16

Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

Tunisia v cc nc cng sn ng u. Ni cch khc, s kh l ngy th khi cho rng cc

nh cm quyn chuyn ch lun c th s dng n p cng nu nh cc cu trc quy trnh
cha c thit lp t trc. Tuy nhin, nu n p cng n su vo mu tht ca ch
chuyn ch, n c th s c tc dng tt nh l mt cng c duy tr n nh ch - mt ln
na, c th ly Bc Triu Tin v Uzbekistan lm v d cho iu ny.
Quan st ny a chng ta n mt im cui cng. Cc b my chuyn ch c th
da vo nhiu phng tin khc nhau bo v chng trc tc ng gy bt n ca tng
trng kinh t tiu cc. Tuy nhin, nhng phng tin ny khng c sn ngay bt c ch
no hay khi no cn. V d, nh ni n trn, sc mnh ca cc th ch thu np c th
bin i ng k v cc nh hot ng chnh tr thng khng th thay i chng trong thi
gian ngn. Mt ch chuyn ch v th c th trng b ngoi vng chc hn thc t. Cc
im yu ca n rt cuc b phi by trong nhng khong thi gian khng hong (kinh t)
(Gerschewski et al. 2013). Nh Gourevitch (1986) ni rt hay rng: Nhng thi im
kh khn lm phi by nhng u v nhc im, cho php nhng ngi quan st nhn thy
nhng mi quan h thng b che khut trong nhng thi k thnh vng, khi m mi th tt
p lm du cc xu hng tranh ginh v thch thc [quyn lc] (p.9). Suy ngh ny khin
chng ta cn nghin cu su hn v nn tng th ch ca chnh th chuyn ch, vi lu
rng cc nh cm quyn chuyn ch khng phi l nhng nn nhn km may mn ca nhng
din bin kinh t bt li.

7. Kt lun
Cc hc gi xp nhng trc trc v kt qu pht trin kinh t trong s cc l do quan trng
nht cho s sp ca cc ch chuyn ch. Bi nghin cu ny khng phi l mt ngoi
l. Nh trnh by, s phn ca cc ch chuyn ch v nn kinh t ca chng c lin h
cht ch. Suy gim kinh t cng mnh th cc mi e da theo chiu ngang v chiu dc
cng d xut hin, lm suy yu mt cch su sc kh nng nm gi quyn lc ca ch
chuyn ch. Quan st 160 ch chuyn ch t nm 1981 n 2008, nghin cu ca chng
ti a n p v thu np vo thnh nhng bin s chnh tr c kh nng lm du tc ng
bt li ca kh khn kinh t.
Theo kt qu ca chng ti, nhiu phng php n p mm khn kho c th lm
suy yu kh nng ca phe chng i trong vic huy ng lc lng chng li ch v t
gip ch chuyn ch bm gi quyn lc ngay c trong thi im suy thoi kinh t. Tuy
nhin, cc hnh ng n p cng khng c hiu qu v thm ch c th phn tc dng. Hn
na, nghin cu ca chng ti mu thun vi nhiu nghin cu xut bn vn cho rng cc
th ch mang hnh thc dn ch nh ngh vin v ng phi gip bnh n cc ch chuyn
ch bng cch thu np nhng nh hot ng c nng lc hoc ngn chn s chia r tng lp
tinh hoa cm quyn. Ngi ta c th nghi ng nhng kt qu bt ng ny bng cch vin dn
17

Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

mu nghin cu v cch nh ngha ca chng ti v s thu np. Tuy nhin, cng r rng
khng km l tc ng ca cc th ch mang hnh thc dn ch ph thuc phn ln vo bi
cnh, khng th nhn thy c trong nghin cu s dng s lng mu ln.
Khng c nhng cu tr li d dng no khi i tm cc nguyn nhn gip n nh hay
lm xi mn cc ch chuyn ch. Tuy nhin, r rng l khng hong kinh t lm tn
thng n lc nm gi quyn lc ca cc nh c ti. Nhng mnh ny chc chn cn
da vo iu kin l kh nng n p v thu np ngi i khng ca h. Nhng iu kin
ny, n lt chng, li khi ngun cho nhng n lc nghin cu mi c th cung cp thm
nhng thng tin chi tit hn v chnh tr chuyn ch.

Ghi ch
1. Cc tc gi cm n Johannes Gerschewski, Alexander Schmotz, Bernhard Wessels, Onawa
P.Lacewell, v c bit l cc nh phn bin khuyt danh v nhng s ng h qu bu cng
nh nhng phn bin ca h.
2. Boix v Stokes qua tr li mt cch ph phn Przeworski v ng nghip ca ng (2000),
nhng ngi tuyn b rng khng c chng c thc nghim no cho thy pht trin kinh t
iu khin nn dn ch. Tuy nhin Boix v Stokes cho thy mt cch tha ng rng nhng
chng c m Przeworski et al. trnh by xut pht t nhng mu khng cng bng v thi
gian nghin cu hu nh giao nhau gn nh hon ton vi thi k lch s c bit ca Chin
tranh Lnh, tc l thi k 1950-1990.
3. Xem xt v d sau. GDP gim mt ch cho trc khong 1% trong ba nm lin tip
trc khi ch sp . Do , cch o lng tng trng kinh t ca chng ti ly gi
tr 1* - 1 = -1 trong nm th nht, gi tr 2* -1 = -2 trong nm th hai, v gi tr 3* - 1 = -3
nm th ba ca thi k suy thoi.
4. Bn cnh cc ch qun ch, qun s, c nhn, v c ng, b d liu Cc ch chnh
tr ton cu cn bao gm mt s nhng trng hp lai kt hp tnh cht ca hai hay nhiu
hn cc loi ch c bn. Bng phn loi rt gn nhm mi trng hp lai vi mt trong
nhng trng hp cn bn (cf. Geddes et al. 2011, p.9).
5. S dng d liu tng trng kinh t c iu chnh v thng k khng b gii hn lm
thay i kt qu ny bi v h s vn ng k ngay c khi a vo xem xt s thu np v
n p. Tuy nhin, xem xt m hnh k hn ch ra nhng thay i h thng ca s d vt
qu di t l tng trng kinh t c iu chnh v thng k khng b gii hn. y l
hu qu trc tip ca nhng quan st ngoi l v lm cho kt qu ny khng ng tin cy.
6. Chng ti ng tnh vi nhng t tng v l thuyt ca Weber (1956 [1921]), Arendt
(1951), Friedrich v Brzezinsky (1956), Easton (1979[1965]), hay l Linz (1975) cho rng
nhng h tr t tng hay quy phm c ngha quan trng i vi s n nh ca h thng
chnh tr - chuyn ch. Tuy nhin, khi thiu nhng d liu nh lng chnh xc v ng tin
cy, trc gic ny ri vo phm vi nhng so snh s dng s mu nh.
7. tham kho mt nh gi mang tnh ph phn lp lun ny, xem Junisbai (2012).

18

Bn quyn thuc v cc tc gi v nghiencuuquocte.net

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Bin dch: Phm Th Kim Ngn | Hiu nh: L Hng Hip

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Thi hn hon thnh bn dch

V y l mt d n da trn s ng gp t nguyn, Ban Bin tp khng yu cu thi hn c th i vi vic hon thnh cc bn
dch. Tuy nhin, Ban Bin tp hi vng s nhn c bn dch trong thi hn 45 ngy k t ngy bn gc c gi cho ngi dch.
Thng thng cc bn bi gc ting Anh s c di t 20-35 trang (bao gm endnote, footnote, bibliography).
Cng tc vi Nghiencuuquocte.net
Do y l mt d n phi li nhun mi giai on u v cha c ti tr nn chng ti ku gi s tham gia tnh nguyn ca cc
cng tc vin c hai cng on bin dch v hiu nh. Nu bn quan tm v mun tr thnh cng tc vin ca d n, vui lng
in vo mu n ng k ti: http://nghiencuuquocte.net/dang-ky-cong-tac/
Cc cng tc vin ng k, ty vo quyt nh ca Ban Bin tp, c th s c a vo danh sch cng tc vin lun hoc s
c gi mt on trch t mt bi bo/chng sch (khong 1-2 trang) dch th. Nu t yu cu, chng ti s a cc bn
vo danh sch cng tc vin v s gi bi cho cc bn bin dch/ hiu nh khi c bi ph hp vi chuyn mn ca bn hoc theo
ng k ch ng ca bn. Lu : Vic bn c gi bi dch cng nh vic bn np bi dch khng m bo chc chn bi
dch ca bn s c hiu nh, bin tp v xut bn.
Li ch ca vic tr thnh cng tc vin ca Nghiencuuquocte.net:

Rn luyn v nng cao kh nng ting Anh, nht l k nng dch thut;

M rng hiu bit v cc lnh vc nghin cu quc t;

ng gp vo s pht trin ca cng ng hc tp v nghin cu quc t ti Vit Nam;

c cp giy chng nhn cng tc vin (c th a vo h s xin hc bng, xin vic lm) nu ng gp t 2 bi dch
tr ln.

c nhn th lao trong trng hp d n xin c ti tr hot ng hoc bi dch c s dng trong cc n phm
pht hnh c thu ph.
Bn quyn bi dch
Bn quyn i vi bn dch c xut bn cng c chia s bi ngi dch, ngi hiu nh (nu phi hiu nh) v
trang Nghiencuuquocte.net. Trong trng hp bn dch pht sinh doanh thu (v d c a vo cc gio trnh, tp bi c,
hoc cc n phm khc c pht hnh c thu ph nh sch in hoc ebook), th sau khi tr cc chi ph bin son, in n, pht
hnh, li nhun thu c s c chia theo t l: Ngi dch: 40% (hoc 75% nu khng phi hiu nh); Ngi hiu nh: 35%,
trang Nghiencuuquocte.net: 25%.
Trang Nghiencuuquocte.net chu mi ph tn trong trng hp phi tr ph cho nh xut bn bi vit c php dch sang
ting Vit.
ng ti, pht hnh li bi dch t nghiencuuquocte.net
Vic ng ti li trn cch trang mng cc bi dch cng b trn website d n phi ghi r ngun v dn link ti bi vit gc
trn nghiencuuquocte.net.
Trong trng hp in n hoc s dng cc bi vit cho mc ch thng mi, cc bn lin quan phi nhn c s cho php bng
vn bn ca Ban Bin tp nghiencuuquocte.net.
D n lc ti a trong ngun lc cho php m bo cht lng ca cc bi dch,nghiencuuquocte.net khng chu trch nhim
v tin cy, chnh xc ca cc bi dch cng nh nhng hu qu c th pht sinh t vic trch dn, s dng li ni dung ca cc
bi dch di bt k hnh thc no.
Min tr trch nhim
Trong khi trn trng s ng gp ca cc cng tc vin, Nghiencuuquocte.net v Ban Bin tp khng th chu bt c trch
nhim no i vi cc tn tht, thit hi v vt cht, tinh thn, thi gian, sc khe c th xy ra i vi cc cng tc vin trong
qu trnh tin hnh cng tc vi d n.
Lin lc
Mi trao i xin vui lng gi ti: L Hng Hip Email: nghiencuuquocte@gmail.com.

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