You are on page 1of 243

Firm & Financial Management

Covers chp. 1

The Firm
Association of people for the provision of
goods and services with an intention of
making a profit.
Legal forms are: Sole Proprietorship
Partnership
corporations

Corporate Structure
Sole Proprietorships

Unlimited Liability
Personal tax on profits

Partnerships

Limited Liability
Corporations

Corporate tax on profits +


Personal tax on dividends

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

What can go wrong .

The counter reaction

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
Important for Financial Manager to
understand the External Environment in
which he has to operate.
Some of the dominant factors are : Government/Financial Market Regulations
Forms of Business organisation.
Taxation etc.

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
Regulatory Framework
FERA/FEMA
MRTP/COMPETION POLICY
COMPANYS ACT ( salient features)

FERA/FEMA
FERA(73) : for MNC operating in India.
More than 40% share holding has to be
reported.
Delay in implementation, (by 1979 only
50% of the companies diluted its equity
holdings below 40%).
Liberalization put forth a new Industrial
and trade Policy (91) and in 1993
ordinance to amend FERA was passed.

FEMA
FEMA was introduced in 1998, with a
motive to facilitate exchange market in
India.
There was a regime shift from exchange
control
to exchange
management.
1993,exchange rate of rupee was made
market determined. 1994, accepted article
VIII of IMF.

Objective/ goal

Role of The Financial Manager


(2)

(1)

Financial
manager

Firm's
operations

(4a)

(4b)

(3)
(1) Cash raised from investors
(2) Cash invested in firm
(3) Cash generated by operations
(4a) Cash reinvested
(4b) Cash returned to investors

Financial
markets

The Goal of Financial


Management
What are firm decision-makers hired to do?

General Motors is not in the business of making


automobiles. General Motors is in the business
of making money.
--Alfred P. Sloan

Goal Of Financial
Management
What should be the goal of a corporation?
Maximize profit?
Minimize costs?
Maximize market share?
Maximize the current value of the companys
stock?

The Goal
Maximize profit Are we talking about long-run
or short-run profits? Do we mean accounting
profits or some measure of cash flow?
Minimize costs We can minimize costs today
by not purchasing new equipment or delaying
maintenance, but this may not be in the best
interest of the firm or its owners.
Maximize market share This has been a
strategy of many of the dotcom companies. They
issued stock and then used it primarily for
advertising to increase the number of hits to
their web sites. Even though many of the
companies have a huge market share (i.e.
Amazon) they still do not have positive earnings
and their owners are not happy (1996).

Maximize the current value of the


companys stock
There is no short run vs. long run here. The stock
price should incorporate expectations about the
future of the company and consider the trade-off
between short-run profits and long-run profits.
The purpose of a for-profit business should be to
make money for its owners. Maximizing the
current stock price increases the wealth of the
owners of the firm.
This is analogous to maximizing owners equity
for firms that do not have publicly traded stock.
Non-profits can also follow the same principle, but
their owners are the constituencies that they
were created to help.

Managers dilemma

Indian Financial System


Topics to be covered
Capital market
Money Market
Banking / developmental Institutions.

Capital Market

EQUITY MARKETS

Common Stock
Ownership in a Corporation
One vote per share.
Have a residual (last) claim on income
and assets in liquidation, thus a
riskier position than bonds and
preferred stockholders.
Shareholders liability for the debts
of the corporation is limited to their
investment in the common stock.

Common Stock (concluded)


Shareholders return is derived from dividends
declared by the board of directors and from
market appreciation in the value of the stock.
Common shareholders may vote their shares to
elect the members of the board of directors.
Members of the board of directors can be
elected by cumulative voting or straight voting.

Preferred Stock
A Preferred or prior claim on earnings and
assets compared to common stock
Dividends paid ahead of common if declared.
Preferred stockholders are usually excluded
from voting for board of directors and
shareholder issues.
Many corporations buy preferred stock.

Convertible Securities
Convertible preferred stock -- convertible to
common stock at specific common price or
number of shares (conversion ratio).
Dividends received until conversion
Investor may participate in growth of firm.

Convertible bonds -- convertible to common


stock at specific common price or number of
shares (conversion ratio).
Pays fixed bond rate until conversion.
Provides potential for higher returns for investors.

Primary Market for Equities


The first time shares are sold in the market is an
unseasoned offering or an initial public offering
(IPO); additional shares may be sold later as a
seasoned offering.
Equities may be:
Sold directly to investors by the firm.
Purchased and sold at a higher price (underwriters
spread) by investment bankers in an underwritten
offering.
Sold to existing shareholders in a rights offering.

Primary Market for Equities


(concluded)
The size of the underwriters spread
depends on the underwriters level of
uncertainty concerning the shares market
price.

The Secondary Market for


Equity Securities
Subsequent Trading in Securities after
primary issue
Stock may trade on:
Exchanges.
Over the counter

Provides investor liquidity

The Secondary Market for


Equity Securities (concluded)
Stable prices are related to the extent of:
Breadth of the market or the number of varied traders
of the stock.
Depth of the market or the extent to which there are
conditional orders to buy and sell below and above
the current price, respectively.
Resiliency of the market or the ability of the market to
attract buyer/sellers when the stock prices
decreases/increases, respectively.

Secondary Markets
Bring Buyers/ Sellers Together Four Ways:
A buyer may incur search costs and find a seller
on their own, called a direct search.
A broker may bring buyer and seller together,
charging a commission.
A dealer may sell/buy (bid/ask) securities from an
inventory of securities, reducing search costs.
The dealers return is the bid/ask spread.
An auction market allocates the selling shares to
the highest bidder, providing a buyer/seller.

The Size of Dealer Bid/ask


Spreads:
are proportionately higher for low priced
stocks due to fixed costs of operations.
are higher for trades of a few shares.
are higher for a large block trade; a liquidity
service is performed.
are narrower with more frequent trading,
where the costs of providing liquidity are less.
are wider with traders with insider information,
where the dealer may have to incur the cost
of price discovery, or buying high, selling low!

Inventory model

Capital Market
Defined as : the market of financial assets
that has long or indefinite maturity.
Nerve centre of the industrial development
of any economy.
SEBI regulates it.

Composition/Structure of Capital
Market
P&S
DFI

VC
CM

IFI

FIIs
CB

MF

HERE:
HERE
P & S : Primary/sec.
markets
DFI:development
financial inst.
IFI:Investment fin. Inst.
MF: Mutual Funds
CB: commercial Banks

Transactions

Challenges & SEBI


SEBI was set up in 1988, but was given a
statutory recognition in 1992 on the
recommendation of the Narasimhan Committee
report.
The Strategic action plan has identified 4 key
spheres
Investors firms-market-regulations
The Sebi Act(1992) was amended at oct 02.
Sebi Appellate Tribunal (SAT).
Penalty Max of 5 lacs.
Board must comprise of : a chairman, 2 Min. of
Fin,1 from RBI,5 others (3 whole time Director)

Hiccups

Efficiency
Insider trading / information efficiency
Volatility
Liquidity
Reach

Date

1992
1994

Events (stock market crisis)

Amount
involved

Harshad Mehta : the market went up by 143%

Rs. 54
Billion

M.S.Shoes: (Pawan Sachdeva) manupulated the

Rs. 170
Million

between Sept 91 & Apr 92

share prices before a Rights issue

1995

Sesa Goa , Rupangi Impex & Magan Industries Ltd

Rs. 61.8
Million

1997

CRB Group : C.R. Bhansali

Rs. 7
Billion

1998

BPL, Videocon,Sterlite

Rs. 0.77
Billion

2001

Ketan Parekh (K10 stocks)

Rs. 1
Billion

Electronic Communication Networks


Gary Putnam

South Western Sec

Sal Smith Barney

Instinet

Reuters

Lehman

Heine
Strike
Herzog

JP Morgan
E-Trade

Archipelago

PaineWeber

Townsend
Bear Stearns

CNBC
DLJ
Merrill Lynch

SLK
Schwab

Goldman Sachs

REDIBook

Knight Trinkmark
BRUT

Nasdaq

Fidelity

TD Waterhouse

ASC Sunguard
Morgan stanley Dean Witter

Datek

ISLAND

Attain

All Tech

NextTrade

PIM

TradeBook

LVMH
TA Associates

Platforms for Internalization


by Broker/Dealer and Banks

Bloomberg

Volatility
Daily Returns on BSE Sensex(1995-2004)
10

Daily Returns(%)

BSE
-5

-10

Volatility clustering

-15
325- 21- 19- 1292- 24- 17- 10731- 26- 20- 17- 138429- 20525Jun- Oct- Mar- Aug- Jan- Jun- Nov- Mar- Aug- Jan- Jun- Oct- Mar- Aug- Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Aug- Jan- Jul- Nov96
96
97
97
98
98
98
99
99
00
00
00
01
01
02
02
02
03
03
04
04
04

Date

14th 17th May04


10:19 PM 17/05/2004
INDIAN STOCK MARKET CRASH (Times of India)
Indian stocks were in virtual free-fall on Monday, wiping out 40 billion dollars
in market value, amid frenzied selling on fears a new Congress-led
government will slow the pace of reform in Asia's fastest-growing economy.
The Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange suspended
trading after their benchmark indices fell 15.5 percent and 17.5 percent,
respectively. Both racked up their biggest point drop ever and sank to their
lowest levels since the Big Bull crisis.

To conclude
Financial management is more influence
by external factors than firm specific
problems
CFOs/CEOs are expected to add value to
the investments trusted upon them rather
than just showing profits .
Capital market in India is volatile and
shows seasonality.

Time Value of Money (contd.)


Session # 3
Financial Management - I

Problem set #1 : solutions


Determine the future values utilizing a time preference
rate of 9 %:
(i) The future value of Rs. 15,000 invested now for a period
of 4 yrs.
1.

(ii) The future value at the end of 5 yrs of an investment of


Rs 6000 now and of an investment of Rs. 6000 one
year from now.
(iii) The future value at the end of 8 years of an annual
deposit of Rs.18,000 each year.
(iv) The future value at the end of 8 years of an annual
deposit of Rs. 18000 at the beginning of each year.
(v) The future value at the end of 8 years of a deposit of Rs
18000 at the end of the first four years and withdrawal
of Rs.12, 000 per year at the end of year five through
seven.

Solution # 1
(i) time preference (discount rate) = 9%
investments = 15,000
time period = 4 yrs.
CVF(4,9%) = 1.4116 (appox.)
FV = 15,000*(1.09)4 = 15,000* 1.4116
= 21,173.72
(ii) Investments = 6000 (now) & 6000( 1 yr after)
period (eoy) = 5 yrs
compouning period = 5 & 4 yrs
CVF = 1.5386 & 1.4116
FV = 9231.74 & 8469.49

Solution # 1
(iii) Annual investments (eoy) = 18,000
time period = 8 yrs.
CVAF = 11.0285 (appox.)
FV = 18,000* 11.0285 = 198,513
(iv) Investments (b0y)= 18000
period = 8 yrs
CVAF (annuity due) = 12.0210
FV = 18000 * 12.0210 = 216378

Solution # 1
withdrawal

(v)

Balance

annual investment for 4 yrs

18000

compounding value at the end of 4


yr

82316.32

compounding value at the end of 5


yr

89724.79

12000

77724.79

compounding value at the end of 6


yr

84720.02

12000

72720.0211

compounding value at the end of 7


yr

79264.82

12000

67264.823

compounding value at the end of 8


yr

73318.66

73318.65707

Solution#2
Rate of interest = 15 %
sum received now = 100
period = 10 yr
PVAF = 5.0188
therefore 1/ PVAF = 0.1993
100 = 5.0188A
Hence A = .1993*100= 19.93
For Annuity due , PVAF(1+.15) = 5.7716
Hence A = 100/5.7716 = 17.33

Solution#3
Needed future sum after 15 yr= 300,000
periods = 15 yrs
interest rate = 12%
CVAF = 37.28
Therefore , A*37.28 = 300000
A = 8047.22

Solution#4
Price of the house = 500,000
Cash payment = 100,000
Balance = 400,000
Installment period = 20 yrs
Interest rate = 12%
PVAF = 7.4694
A*7.4694 = 400,000
A = 53551.51 (appox)

year

Balance

Installment

interest

Repayment

400000.00

394448.49

53,551.51

48000.00

5,551.51

388230.80

53,551.51

47333.82

6,217.69

381266.98

53,551.51

46587.70

6,963.81

373467.51

53,551.51

45752.04

7,799.47

364732.10

53,551.51

44816.10

8,735.41

354948.45

53,551.51

43767.85

9,783.66

343990.75

53,551.51

42593.81

10,957.70

331718.13

53,551.51

41278.89

12,272.62

317972.80

53,551.51

39806.18

13,745.33

10

302578.02

53,551.51

38156.74

15,394.77

11

285335.87

53,551.51

36309.36

17,242.15

12

266024.67

53,551.51

34240.30

19,311.21

13

244396.12

53,551.51

31922.96

21,628.55

14

220172.14

53,551.51

29327.53

24,223.98

15

193041.29

53,551.51

26420.66

27,130.85

16

162654.74

53,551.51

23164.95

30,386.56

17

128621.79

53,551.51

19518.57

34,032.94

18

90504.90

53,551.51

15434.62

38,116.89

19

47813.98

53,551.51

10860.59

42,690.92

20

0.15

53,551.51

5737.68

47,813.83

Solution # 5
Answer??

Other forms of Annuity


Perpetuity: it is an Annuity that occurs
indefinitely. (i.e. without a maturity)
P = A/I
E.g. , an investor expects a perpetual sum of
Rs 500 annually from his investments.
What is the present value of this perpetuity
if the interest rate is 10%.
soln : P = 500/0.10 = Rs 5000.

Other forms of Annuity


Present value of a growing Annuity: the
periodic cash flows grow at a compounding
rate. E.g. Arun gets an annual salary of Rs
1,00,000 with the provision for an annual
increment of 10%.
P = A/(1+g)[ ( 1-(1+i*)-n) /i*]
Where, i* = (i-g)/(1+g)

An Example
A dividend stream commencing one year
hence at Rs 66 is expected to grow at
10% annum for 15 Yrs and then ceases. If
the discount rate is 21%, what is the PV of
the expected series.
soln: P = A/(1+g)[ ( 1-(1+i*)-n) /i*]
Where, i* = (i-g)/(1+g)
i* =(0.21-0.10)/1.10 = 0.10
A/(1+g) = 66/1.10 = 60

Example (contd.)
Refer to table of PVAF (15,10%)= 7.606
P = 60 * 7.606 = Rs 456.36

Some terms
Capital Recovery: it is the annuity of an
investment for a specified time at a
given rate.
If you make an investment today for a
given period of time at a specified rate
of interest you may like to know the
annual income generated from it.
The reciprocal of PVAF is CRF ( capital
recovery factor).

An Example
If you plan to invest Rs 10,000 today for a period
of 4 years. The interest rate is 10%. How mush
income per year should you receive to recover
your investment?
Soln : PV = A (PVAFn,i)
A = PV (CRFn,i)
A = 10,000 (0.3155) = Rs 3155

problems
Suppose you have taken a 3 yr loan of Rs
10,000 @ 9% from your employer to buy a
motorcycle. If your employer requires
three equal end-of-year repayment ,then
what will be the annual installments?

problems
PV = A (PVAF n,i)
using the given values, we obtain..
10000 = A (2.531)
A = Rs 3951
i.e. paying Rs 3951 each year, for three yrs ,
you shall completely pay off your loan with
9% interest rate.

problems
Exactly ten yrs from now Sri Chand will
start receiving a pension of Rs 3000 a
year. The payment will continue for 16 yrs.
How much is the pension worth now, if Sri
Chands interest rate is 10%?

problems
Soln: Sri Chand will receive the first payment at
the end of 10th Year and last payment at the end
of 25th year.
Assuming an Annuity for 25 yrs @ 10%, PVAF25
= 9.077 but we know that he will not receive
anything till the end of 9th yr. therefore we
subtract PVAF @ 10% for 9 yrs.
i.e. PVAF25 PVAF9 = 9.077 5.759 =3.318
Therefore, the present value of the pension will be
= 3.318* 3000 = Rs 9954

problems
How long will it take to double your money
if it grows at 12% annually ?
If a person deposits Rs 1000 on an
account that pays him 10% for the first 5
yrs and 13% for the following eight yrs,
what is the annual compound rate of
interest for the 13 yr period?

problems
Amount = 1000
interest rate for (1-5)yr = 10%
interest rate for (6-13) yrs = 13%
compound value for 13 yr period
= 1000 * (1.15)5 * (1.13)8 = 4281.45
the compound interest rate will be
= [ ( 4281.45/1000)1/13 1 ] = 11.84%

problems
A finance company makes an offer to
deposit a sum of Rs 1100 and then
receive a return of Rs 80 p.a. perpetually.
Should this offer be accepted if the rate of
interest is 8% ? Will the decision change if
the rate of interest is 5%?

Problems
The person should accept the offer if the
present value (PV) of the perpetuity is
more than the initial deposit of Rs 1100
If the rate of interest is 8%
PV = A/i = 80/.08 = RS 1000 ( reject)
If the rate of interest is 5 %
PV = 80/.05 = Rs 1600( accept)

problems
What is the minimum amount which a
person should be ready to accept today
from a debtor who otherwise has to pay a
sum of Rs 5000 today, Rs 6000, Rs 8000
and Rs 9000 and Rs 10000 at the end of
yr 1,2,3,4 respectively from today. The
rate of interest is 14%.

problems
Soln : the minimum amt. is the PV of the series of amt.
due ,discounted at 14% , as follows:
year

Amt due

PVF(n,14%)

PV

5000

5000

6000

0.877

5262

8000

0.769

6152

9000

0.675

6075

10000

0.592

5920
28409

problems
A company is expected to declare a
dividend of Rs2 at the end of first year
from now and this dividend is expected to
grow 10% every year . What is the PV of
this stream of dividends if the rate of
interest is 15%?

problems
Soln : PV = A /(i - g). Eqn #1
it is a perpetuity which is growing @ 10% p.a.
The formula
P = A/(1+g)[ ( 1-(1+i*)-n) /i*]
Here, n = , hence we get Eqn # 1
Solving for PV we obtain,
PV = 2/(0.15-0.10) = Rs 40

WORKBOOK
PART -1
Page 25 onwards , questions109,120,123,134,133,131

PART II
Page 109 onwards, questions 9,12,18,21,33,43,50,85,103

summary
The concept of TVM refers to the fact that
the money received today is different in its
worth from the money receivable some
time in the future.
Some business & personal decisions like
Capital recovery, Loan Amortization ,
returns from bonds etc can be effectively
determined using TVM.

Risk & Returns

Topics
Concept of Risk & Return
Sources of risk
Portfolio and risk
CAPM ( Capital Asset Pricing Model)

Concept of returns
Required Returns (Ex post) are
statistically derived from historical
observations.
Expected Returns (Ex ante) are
statistically derived expected values from
future estimates of observations.

Probability & Returns


In the world of uncertainty , the expected
returns may or may not materialize.
The expected rate of return for any
asset is the weighted average rate of
return using the probability of each rate of
return as the weight.

E.g.:- consider the range of returns under the


possible states of economic conditions. What
rate of return can you expect ?
Economic Rate of
conditions (1) Return(%)
(2)

Probability
(3)

E(R)
(4)=(2)*(3)

Growth

18.5

0.25

4.63

Expansion

10.5

0.25

2.62

Stagnation 1.0

0.25

0.25

Decline

0.25

-1.50

-6.0

6.00

Risk & Returns


Risk : the chance that the actual
outcome from an investment will differ
from the expected outcome.
Investment decisions always involve a
trade off between risk & return.

Sources of Risk

Factors which make any financial


asset risky are:
1. Business Risk: industry/
environmental factors involved.
2. Market Risk: variability in returns due
to the fluctuations in the securities
market.

Sources of Risk
3. Liquidity Risk: ease with which a
security can be bought or sold without
much transaction cost.
4. Financial Risk: influenced by the
degree of financial leverage

Sources of Risk
5. Interest Rate Risk: changes in the
interest rates.
6. Inflation Risk: change in the inflation
influences the purchasing power of
the investors.

Measuring Risk
Risk of an asset can be measured in
terms of its variance.
More the deviation from the expected
value , more riskier the asset.

E.g. :- Jenson & Nicholson, a paint company,


has the following dividend per share (DIV) and
the market price per share (AMP) for the period
87-92
Year
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992

DIV (Rs)
1.53
1.53
1.53
2.0
2.0
2.0

AMP (Rs)
31.25
20.75
30.88
67.00
100.00
154.00

Calculate the annual returns(5yrs).how risky is the


share?

solution
Div1 P1 P0
Expected Return = r =
+
P0
P0
R88 = [1.53 + 20.75-31.25]/ 31.25 = -0.287
Similarly,
R89 = 56.2%,R90 = 123.4%,R91 = 52.2%,R92 = 57%
Rm = 1/5 {-28.7+56.2+123.4+52.2+57} = 52%
To determine the riskness of the share, we calculate the
variation of the returns :
2 =1/5{ (-28.7-52)2 + (56.2-52)2 + (123.4 52)2 + (52.2-52)2 +
(57-52)2} = 2330.63 or S.D = 48.28

Probability distributions (Rev.)


A listing of all possible outcomes, and the
probability of each occurrence.
Can be shown graphically.
Firm X

Firm Y
-70

15

Expected Rate of Return

100

Rate of
Return (%)

Investment alternatives

Economy

Prob.

GOI

HLL

HNC

ACC

MP

Recession

0.1

8.0%

-22.0%

28.0%

10.0%

-13.0%

Below avg

0.2

8.0%

-2.0%

14.7%

-10.0%

1.0%

Average

0.4

8.0%

20.0%

0.0%

7.0%

15.0%

Above avg

0.2

8.0%

35.0%

-10.0%

45.0%

29.0%

Boom

0.1

8.0%

50.0%

-20.0%

30.0%

43.0%

Return: Calculating the expected return


for each alternative
^

k = expected rate of return


^

k = k i Pi
i=1

k HT = (-22.%) (0.1) + (-2%) (0.2)


+ (20%) (0.4) + (35%) (0.2)
+ (50%) (0.1) = 17.4%

Summary of expected returns for


all alternatives
HLL
Market
ACC
GOI
HNC.

Exp return
17.4%
15.0%
13.8%
8.0%
1.7%

HLL has the highest expected return, and appears


to be the best investment alternative, but is it
really? Have we failed to account for risk?

Risk: Calculating the standard deviation


for each alternative
= Standard deviation
= Variance = 2
n

= (k i k ) Pi
i=1

Standard deviation calculation


GOI = 0%
HLL = 20%
HNC = 13.4%
ACC = 18.8%
M =15.3%

Comparing standard deviations


Prob.

GOI

ACC
HLL

13.8

17.4

Rate of Return (%)

Comments on standard deviation


as a measure of risk
Standard deviation (i) measures total, or standalone, risk.
The larger i is, the lower the probability that
actual returns will be closer to expected returns.
Larger i is associated with a wider probability
distribution of returns.
Difficult to compare standard deviations, because
return has not been accounted for.

Comparing risk and return


Expected return

Risk,

GOIs

8.0%

0.0%

HLL

17.4%

20.0%

HNC*

1.7%

13.4%

ACC*

13.8%

18.8%

Market

15.0%

15.3%

Security

Coefficient of Variation (CV)


A standardized measure of dispersion about the
expected value, that shows the risk per unit of
return.

Std dev
CV =
= ^
Mean
k

Risk rankings,
by coefficient of variation
GOI
HLL
HNC.
ACC
Market

CV
0.000
1.149
7.882
1.362
1.020

HNC has the highest degree of risk per unit of


return.
HLL, despite having the highest standard
deviation of returns, has a relatively average CV.

Illustrating the CV as a measure


of relative risk
Prob.

Rate of Return (%)

A = B , but A is riskier because of a larger


probability of losses. In other words, the same
amount of risk (as measured by ) for less returns.

ACC Ltd

courtesy: J P Morgan

ACC Ltd (250.800, 255.100, 248.300, 253.250, +3.20000)

300

250

200

150

40000
30000
20000
10000
x100

2002O N D 2003 M A M J J A S O N D 2004 M A M J J A

Capital Market Theory

Dominant principle
Markowitzs Portfolio theory
Two asset portfolio
Efficient frontier
The CAPM

The Dominance Principle


States that among all investments with a
given return, the one with the least risk is
desirable; or given the same level of risk,
the one with the highest return is most
desirable.

Dominance Principle Example


Security
E(Ri)
ATW
7%
GAC
7%
YTC
15%
FTR
3%
HTC
8%
ATW dominates GAC
ATW dominates FTR

3%
4%
15%
3%
12%

Capital Market Theory


Markowitz Model
Markowitz model generates an efficient
frontier,which is a set of efficient portfolios.
A portfolio is said to be efficient if it offers the
maximum expected return for a given level of
risk or minimum risk for a given level of expected
returns.

Markowitz Diversification
Although there are no securities with
perfectly negative correlation, almost all
assets are less than perfectly correlated.
Therefore, you can reduce total risk (p)
through diversification. If we consider
many assets at various weights, we can
generate the efficient frontier.

Risk revisited
Unsystematic Risk
... is that portion of an assets total risk which
can be eliminated through diversification

Systematic Risk
... is that risk which cannot be eliminated
Inherent in the marketplace

Diversification
Risk

75% of Co.
Total Risk
Unsystematic
Risk
25% of Co.
Total Risk

Systematic Risk
1

10

20

30

No. of Assets

Efficient Frontier
The Efficient Frontier represents all the
dominant portfolios in risk/return space.
There is one portfolio (M) which can be
considered the market portfolio if we
analyze all assets in the market. Hence,
M would be a portfolio made up of assets
that correspond to the real relative weights
of each asset in the market.

Efficient Frontier (continued)


Assume you have 20 assets.
you can calculate all possible portfolio
combinations.
The Efficient Frontier will consist of those
portfolios with the highest return given the
same level of risk or minimum risk given
the same return (Dominance Rule)

Expected
Portfolio
Return, kp

Efficient Set

Feasible Set

Feasible and Efficient Portfolios

Risk, p

The feasible set of portfolios represents all


portfolios that can be constructed from a
given set of stocks.
An efficient portfolio is one that offers:
the most return for a given amount of risk, or
the least risk for a give amount of return.

The collection of efficient portfolios is called


the efficient set or efficient frontier.

Expected
Return, kp

IB2 I
B1

IA2
IA1

Optimal Portfolio
Investor B

Optimal Portfolio
Investor A

Optimal Portfolios

Risk p

Selection of the O ptim al Portfolio


H ow w ill the investor go about selecting the
optim al portfolio?
Investors w ill have to consider their
indifference curves .
Put the investors indifference curves and
the efficient frontier and go for the portfolio
on the farthest northw est indifference curve,
w here the indifference curve is tangent to the
efficient frontier.

Indifference curves reflect an investors


attitude toward risk as reflected in his or her
risk/return tradeoff function. They differ
among investors because of differences in
risk aversion.
An investors optimal portfolio is defined by
the tangency point between the efficient set
and the investors indifference curve.

Indifference Curves for a Risk-Averse Investor


I

E(R)
Tangent Portfolio

4
I

3
I
2
I

Portfolio Selection for a Highly Risk-Averse


Investor
I
E(R)
Tangent Portfolio

2
I

The optimal portfolios plotted along the curve have the


highest expected return possible for the given amount
of risk. (source:investopedia.com)

What is the CAPM?


The CAPM is an equilibrium model that
specifies the relationship between risk and
required rate of return for assets held in welldiversified portfolios.
Derived using principles of diversification with
simplified assumptions
Markowitz, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin are
researchers credited with its development.

Slope and Market Risk Premium


M
rf
E(rM) - rf

=
=
=

Market portfolio
Risk free rate
Market risk premium
= Slope of the CAPM

E(r) = rf + (E (rM) rf)

What are the assumptions


of the CAPM?
Investors all think in terms of
a single holding period.
All investors have identical expectations.
Investors can borrow or lend unlimited
amounts at the risk-free rate.
(More...)

What are the assumptions


of the CAPM?
There are no taxes and no
transactions costs.
All investors are price takers, that is,
investors buying and selling wont
influence stock prices.
Quantities of all assets are given and
fixed.

What impact does kRF have on


the efficient frontier?
When a risk-free asset is added to the
feasible set, investors can create
portfolios that combine this asset with a
portfolio of risky assets.
The straight line connecting kRF with M,
the tangency point between the line and
the old efficient set, becomes the new
efficient frontier.

Efficient Set with a Risk-Free Asset


Expected
Return, kp

^
k
M

kRF

The Capital Market


Line (CML):
New Efficient Set

.
M

Risk, p

What is the Capital Market Line?


The Capital Market Line (CML) is all
linear combinations of the risk-free asset
and Portfolio M.
Portfolios below the CML are inferior.
The CML defines the new efficient set.
All investors will choose a portfolio on the
CML.

The CML Equation

^
kp = kRF +

Intercept

^
kM - kRF

M
Slope

p.

Risk
measure

What does the CML tell us?


The expected rate of return on any
efficient portfolio is equal to the riskfree rate plus a risk premium.
The optimal portfolio for any investor is
the point of tangency between the CML
and the investors indifference curves.

Expected
Return, kp

CML
I2

^
k
M
^
k

I1

.
.

R = Optimal
Portfolio

kRF

R M

Risk, p

What is the Security Market Line (SML)?

The CML gives the risk/return


relationship for efficient portfolios.
The Security Market Line (SML), also
part of the CAPM, gives the risk/return
relationship for individual stocks.

The SML Equation


The measure of risk used in the SML is
the beta coefficient of company i, .
Where,
= [COV(ri,rm)] / m2
Slope, SML = E(rm) - rf
= market risk premium
SML = rf + [E(rm) - rf]

What are our conclusions


regarding the CAPM?
Recent studies have questioned its
validity.
Investors seem to be concerned with
both market risk and stand-alone risk.
Therefore, the SML may not produce a
correct estimate of ki.
(More...)

CAPM/SML concepts are based on


expectations, yet betas are calculated
using historical data.
A companys
historical data may not reflect investors
expectations about future riskiness.
Other models are being developed that
will one day replace the CAPM, but it
still provides a good framework for
thinking about risk and return.

Cost of Capital

Cost of capital
Returns from the firms perspective
Firm raises money from both equity investors
and lenders. Both group of investors make their
investments expecting to make a return .
Firms average cost of funds, which is the
average return required by firms investors
What must be paid to attract funds

What sources of long-term


capital do firms use?
Long-Term
Capital

Long-Term
Debt

Preferred Stock

Retained
Earnings

Common Stock

New Common
Stock

Cost of equity/debt
Expected returns for the equity investors,
would include a premium for the risk in the
investment.. Cost of equity
Expected returns the lenders hope to
make on their investments, includes a
premium for default risk .. Cost of debt.

Weighted Average Cost of


Capital, WACC
A weighted average of the component
costs of debt, preferred stock, and
common equity
Proportion After - tax Proportion Cost of Proportion Cost of
cost of + of preferred preferred + of common common
=
of
debt debt stock stock equity equity
=

wd

k dT

w ps

k ps

ws

ks

The Logic of the Weighted Average


Cost of Capital
The use of debt impacts the ability to use
equity, and vice versa, so the weighted
average cost must be used to evaluate
projects, regardless of the specific financing
used to fund a particular project.

Basic Definitions
Capital Component
Types of capital used by firms to raise
money
kd = before tax interest cost
kdT = kd(1-T) = after tax cost of debt
kps = cost of preferred stock
ks = cost of retained earnings
ke = cost of external equity (new stock)

After-Tax Cost of Debt


The relevant cost of new debt
The yield to maturity on outstanding LT debt
is often used as a measure
Taking into account the tax deductibility of
interest
Used to calculate the WACC
kdT = bondholders required rate of return
minus tax savings
kdT = kd - (kd x T) = kd(1-T)

Cost of Preferred Stock


Rate of return investors require on the
firms preferred stock
The preferred dividend divided by the
net issuing price

k ps =

D ps
NP

D ps
P0 Flotation costs

D ps
P0 (1 F)

Cost of Retained Earnings


Rate of return investors require on the
firms common stock

D
1
k =k
+ RP =
+ g = k
s
RF
s
P
0

Why is there a cost for retained


earnings?
Earnings can be reinvested or paid out
as dividends.
Investors could buy other securities,
earn a return.
Thus, there is an opportunity cost if
earnings are retained.

Three ways to determine cost of


common equity, ks

1. CAPM: ks = kRF + (kM kRF)b.


2. DCF: ks = D1/P0 + g.
3. Own-Bond-Yield-Plus-Risk
Premium: ks = kd + RP.

Whats the cost of common


equity based on the CAPM?
kRF = 7%, RPM = 6%, b = 1.2.
ks = kRF + (kM kRF )b.
= 7.0% + (6.0%)1.2 = 14.2%.

Whats the DCF cost of common


equity, ks? Given: D0 = Rs 4.19;
P0 = Rs 50; g = 5%.
D1
D0(1 + g)
ks = P + g =
+g
P
0
0
Rs 4.19(1.05)
=
+
0.05
Rs 50
= 0.088 + 0.05
= 13.8%.

Suppose the company has


been earning 15% on equity
(ROE = 15%) and retaining
35% (dividend payout = 65%),
and this situation is expected
to continue.
Whats the expected future g?

Retention growth rate:


g = (1 Payout)(ROE)

= 0.35(15%)
= 5.25%.

Here (1 Payout) = Fraction retained.

Could DCF methodology be applied


if g is not constant?

YES, nonconstant g stocks are


expected to have constant g at
some point, generally in 5 to 10
years.
But calculations get complicated.

Find ks using the own-bond-yieldplus-risk-premium method.


(kd = 10%, RP = 4%.)
ks = kd + RP
= 10.0% + 4.0% = 14.0%
This RP CAPM RP.
Produces ballpark estimate of ks.

Whats a reasonable final estimate


of ks?
Method

Estimate

CAPM

14.2%

DCF

13.8%

kd + RP

14.0%

Average

14.0%

Industry survey reports

Why is the cost of retained earnings


cheaper than the cost of issuing new
common stock?
1. When a company issues new
common stock they also have to pay
flotation costs to the underwriter.
2. Issuing new common stock may
send a negative signal to the capital
markets, which may depress stock
price.

Suppose new common stock had a


flotation cost of 15%. What is ke?
D0(1 + g)
ke =
+g
P0(1 F)
Rs 4.19(1.05)

= Rs 50(1 0.15) + 5.0%


=

Rs 4.40
Rs 42.50

+ 5.0% = 15.4%.

Whats the firms WACC


(ignoring flotation costs)?
WACC = wdkd(1 T) + wpkp + wcks
= 0.3(10%)(0.6) + 0.1(9%) + 0.6(14%)
= 1.8% + 0.9% + 8.4% = 11.1%.

What factors influence a companys


composite WACC?

Market conditions.
Level of interest rates
Tax rates
The firms capital structure and dividend
policy.
The firms investment policy. Firms with
riskier projects generally have a higher
WACC.

Should the company use the composite


WACC as the hurdle rate for each of its
projects?*
NO! The composite WACC reflects the
risk of an average project undertaken by
the firm. Therefore, the WACC only
represents the hurdle rate for a typical
project with average risk.
Different projects have different risks. The
projects WACC should be adjusted to
reflect the projects risk.

Risk and the Cost of Capital


Rate of Return
(%)

Acceptance Region
W ACC

12.0

8.0

Rejection Region

10.5
10.0
9.5

B
L

Risk L

Risk A

Risk H

Risk

Divisional Cost of Capital


Rate of Return
(%)
13.0

Project H

11.0
10.0
9.0
7.0

WACC

Division Hs WACC

Project L

Composite WACC
for Firm A

Division Ls WACC

RiskL

Risk Average

RiskH

Risk

Take note
Use of current cost of debt : the interest
rate the firm would pay if it issues the debt
today.
when determining the market risk
premium, use current rate in both the
cases . i.e. current risk free rate & current
expected rate of return on the stock.

Revision session
Intro to FM
Time value of Money
Valuation of securities
Risk & return
Cost of capital

Introduction to FM

1.
2.
3.

Three basic principles


Financing principle
Investment principle
Dividend principle.

Introduction to FM

What should be the goal of a


corporation?
Maximize profit?
Maximize the current value of the companys
stock?

i.e PROFIT MAXIMISATION


OR
VALUE MAXIMISATION ??

THE FIRM

Topics under TVM

Introduction
Future value of a single cash flow
Present value of a single flow
Multiple flows and Annuity

Introduction
The most important concept in finance
Time preference for money
Risk or uncertainty of future cash flows
Preference for present consumption (PPP)
Investment opportunities

Time preference rate is generally


expressed by an interest rate.

What is the PV of Rs100 due in


3 years if k = 10%?

PV = ?

10%

100

Future Value of an Annuity


Annuity: A series of payments of equal
amounts at fixed intervals for a specified
number of periods.
Ordinary (deferred) Annuity: An annuity
whose payments occur at the end of each
period.
Annuity Due: An annuity whose
payments occur at the beginning of each
period.

Ordinary Annuity Versus


Annuity Due
Ordinary Annuity

k%

PMT

PMT

PMT

PMT

3
PMT

Annuity Due
0
k%
PMT

Whats the FV of a 3-year


Ordinary Annuity of Rs100 at
10%?
0

10%

100

100

100
110
121

FV

= 331

What is the PV of this


Uneven Cash Flow Stream?
0

100

300

300

-50

10%

What is the PV of this


Uneven Cash Flow Stream?
0

100

300

300

-50

10%

90.91
247.93
225.39
-34.15

530.08 = PV

Mathematical expressions: simplified


Fn = P ( 1+i )n
the term ( 1+i )n is the CVF ( compound
value factor) .
We can make use of the tables for easy
reference. ( Formula Book only for partB & C)
Eg: for i = 4% and n= 5 yrs , refer to 6th
column and the row corresponding to 5
years, the CVF/FVF is 1.217

Mathematical expressions: simplified


Compound value of an annuity
Fn = A (FVAFn,i)
Present value of an annuity
PV = A ( PVAFn,i)
Compound value of an annuity due
Fn = A ( FVAFn,i)(1+i)
Present value of an annuity due
PV = A ( PVAFn,i)(1+i)

Problems
1. Mahesh deposits $5,000 in a savings
account earning 8% interest annually.
(a)

How much will be in the account at the


end of the twelfth year?

(b)

How many years would be required to


accumulate $20,000 under the same
assumptions?

solution
(a) Future value
FV = PV(1 + i)n
FV = $5,000(1 + .08)12
FV = $5,000(2.518)
FV = $12,590
(b)

$20,000 = $5,000(1 + .08)n

4 = (1.08)n
Read down the 8% column of the future value table until
the value 4 is found. The value 4 is not found exactly,
but it can be determined that N is approximately 18
years.

Problem set #1 : solutions


Determine the future values utilizing a time preference
rate of 9 %:
(i) The future value of Rs. 15,000 invested now for a period
of 4 yrs.
1.

(ii) The future value at the end of 5 yrs of an investment of


Rs 6000 now and of an investment of Rs. 6000 one
year from now.
(iii) The future value at the end of 8 years of an annual
deposit of Rs.18,000 each year.
(iv) The future value at the end of 8 years of an annual
deposit of Rs. 18000 at the beginning of each year.
(v) The future value at the end of 8 years of a deposit of Rs
18000 at the end of the first four years and withdrawal
of Rs.12, 000 per year at the end of year five through
seven.

Solution # 1
(i) time preference (discount rate) = 9%
investments = 15,000
time period = 4 yrs.
CVF(4,9%) = 1.4116 (appox.)
FV = 15,000*(1.09)4 = 15,000* 1.4116
= 21,173.72
(ii) Investments = 6000 (now) & 6000( 1 yr after)
period (eoy) = 5 yrs & 5yrs
compounding period = 5 & 4 yrs
CVF = 1.5386 & 1.4116
FV = 9231.74 & 8469.49

Solution # 1
(iii) Annual investments (eoy) = 18,000
time period = 8 yrs.
CVAF = 11.0285 (appox.)
FV = 18,000* 11.0285 = 198,513
(iv) Investments (b0y)= 18000
period = 8 yrs
CVAF (annuity due) = 12.0210
FV = 18000 * 12.0210 = 216378

Solution # 1
withdrawal

(v)

Balance

annual investment for 4 yrs

18000

compounding value at the end of 4


yr

82316.32

compounding value at the end of 5


yr

89724.79

12000

77724.79

compounding value at the end of 6


yr

84720.02

12000

72720.0211

compounding value at the end of 7


yr

79264.82

12000

67264.823

compounding value at the end of 8


yr

73318.66

73318.65707

problems
A company is expected to declare a
dividend of Rs2 at the end of first year
from now and this dividend is expected to
grow 10% every year . What is the PV of
this stream of dividends if the rate of
interest is 15%?

problems
Soln : PV = A /(i - g). Eqn #1
it is a perpetuity which is growing @ 10% p.a.
The formula
P = A/(1+g)[ ( 1-(1+i*)-n) /i*]
Here, n = , hence we get Eqn # 1
Solving for PV we obtain,
PV = 2/(0.15-0.10) = Rs 40

Other forms of Annuity


Perpetuity: it is an Annuity that occurs
indefinitely. (i.e. without a maturity)
P = A/I
E.g. , an investor expects a perpetual sum of
Rs 500 annually from his investments.
What is the present value of this perpetuity
if the interest rate is 10%.
soln : P = 500/0.10 = Rs 5000.

Other forms of Annuity


Present value of a growing Annuity: the
periodic cash flows grow at a compounding
rate. E.g. Arun gets an annual salary of Rs
1,00,000 with the provision for an annual
increment of 10%.
P = A/(1+g)[ ( 1-(1+i*)-n) /i*]
Where, i* = (i-g)/(1+g)

An Example
A dividend stream commencing one year
hence at Rs 66 is expected to grow at
10% annum for 15 Yrs and then ceases. If
the discount rate is 21%, what is the PV of
the expected series.
soln: P = A/(1+g)[ ( 1-(1+i*)-n) /i*]
Where, i* = (i-g)/(1+g)
i* =(0.21-0.10)/1.10 = 0.10
A/(1+g) = 66/1.10 = 60

Valuation of Securities
Bond valuation
Equity valuation

Concepts of valuation
In general, the value of an asset is the
price that a willing and able buyer pays to
a willing and able seller
Note that if either the buyer or seller is not
both willing and able, then an offer does
not establish the value of the asset

Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic Value - The present value of the
expected future cash flows discounted at the
decision makers required rate of return

The size and timing of the expected future


cash flows
The individuals required rate of return
Note that the intrinsic value of an asset can be,
and often is, different for each individual (thats
what makes markets work)

Bond valuation : terminology


1. Par value : it is the value stated on the
face of the bond. It represents the
amount the firm borrows & promises to
repay at the time of maturity.
2. Coupon rate & Interest: a bond carries
a specific IR which is called the coupon
rate. The interest payable to the
bondholder is
= (par value of the bond * coupon rate)
3. Maturity Date - This is the date after
which the bond no longer exists

Calculating the Value of a Bond


The value of the bond can be expressed as :

INT
INT
M
VB =
+ ... +
+
1
N
N
(1 + k d )
(1 + k d )
(1 + k d )
Where,
INT = annual coupon payment
Kd = req. rate of return/discount rate
N = time period.
VB = INT *PVAFn,i + M* PVFn,i

Yield To Maturity
Yield to maturity (YTM) : rate of return earned on
bond held until maturity
The IR when:
Price of the bond = PV of all cash flow
receivables
Eg : par value : Rs 1000, CI = 9%,time to maturity
= 8and currently priced at Rs 800. what will be
the yield to maturity?
sol: An appox.
= INT + (M-P)/n
0.4M + 0.6 P
= 13.06%

examples
#1: the govt. is proposing to sell a 5-year
bond of Rs 1000 @ 8% IR per annum. The
bond amount will be amortized equally
over its life. If an investor has a minimum
required rate of return of 7%, what is the
bonds present value for him?

solution
Sol #1:the amt of interest will go on reducing
because of amortization. The amount of
interest for five years will be :
Rs 1000 * 0.08 = Rs 80
Rs (1000 200)*.08 = Rs 64
P = 280/(1+0.07) +264/(1+0.07)2
+216/(1+0.07)5
= Rs 1025.66

Valuing Common Stocks


Dividend Discount Model - Computation of todays
stock price which states that share value equals
the present value of all expected future
dividends.

Div1
Div2
Div H + PH
P0 =
+
+...+
H
1
2
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r )

H - Time horizon for your investment.

Valuing Common Stocks


Example

Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay


dividends of Rs3, Rs3.24, and Rs3.50 over the
next three years, respectively. At the end of three
years you anticipate selling your stock at a market
price of Rs94.48. What is the price of the stock
given a 12% expected return?

3.00
3.24
3.50 + 94.48
PV =
+
+
1
2
3
(1+.12 ) (1+.12 )
(1+.12 )
PV = Rs 75

Valuing Common Stocks


Constant Growth DDM - A version of the dividend
growth model in which dividends grow at a
constant rate (Gordon Growth Model).

Div1
P0 =
rg
Given any combination of variables in the
equation, you can solve for the unknown
variable.

Concept of returns
Mean Returns (Ex post) are statistically
derived from historical observations.
Expected Returns (Ex ante) are
statistically derived expected values from
future estimates of observations.

Sources of Risk

Factors which make any financial


asset risky are:
1. Business Risk: industry/
environmental factors involved.
2. Market Risk: variability in returns due
to the fluctuations in the securities
market.

Sources of Risk
3. Liquidity Risk: ease with which a
security can be bought or sold without
much transaction cost.
4. Financial Risk: influenced by the
degree of financial leverage

Sources of Risk
5. Interest Rate Risk: changes in the
interest rates.
6. Inflation Risk: change in the inflation
influences the purchasing power of
the investors.

Measuring Risk
Risk of an asset can be measured in
terms of its variance.
More the deviation from the expected
value , more riskier the asset.

Capital Market Theory

Dominant principle
Markowitzs Portfolio theory
Two asset portfolio
Efficient frontier
The CAPM

Diversification
Risk

75% of Co.
Total Risk
Unsystematic
Risk
25% of Co.
Total Risk

Systematic Risk
1

10

20

30

No. of Assets

Probability distributions (Rev.)


A listing of all possible outcomes, and the
probability of each occurrence.
Can be shown graphically.
Firm X

Firm Y
-70

15

Expected Rate of Return

100

Rate of
Return (%)

The optimal portfolios plotted along the curve have the


highest expected return possible for the given amount
of risk.

Efficient Set with a Risk-Free Asset


Expected
Return, kp

^
k
M

kRF

The Capital Market


Line (CML):
New Efficient Set

.
M

Risk, p

What is the Capital Market Line?


The Capital Market Line (CML) is all
linear combinations of the risk-free asset
and Portfolio M.
Portfolios below the CML are inferior.
The CML defines the new efficient set.
All investors will choose a portfolio on the
CML.

The CML Equation

^
kp = kRF +

Intercept

^
kM - kRF

M
Slope

p.

Risk
Measure

Expected
Return, kp

CML
I2

^
k
M
^
k

I1

.
.

R = Optimal
Portfolio

kRF

R M

Risk, p

What is the Security Market Line (SML)?

The CML gives the risk/return


relationship for efficient portfolios.
The Security Market Line (SML), also
part of the CAPM, gives the risk/return
relationship for individual stocks.

The SML Equation


The measure of risk used in the SML is
the beta coefficient of company i, .
Where,
= [COV(ri,rm)] / m2
Slope, SML = E(rm) - rf
= market risk premium
SML = rf + [E(rm) - rf]

ABOUT BETA ..

If beta = 1.0, stock is average risk.


If beta > 1.0, stock is riskier than
average.
If beta < 1.0, stock is less risky than
average.
Most stocks have betas in the range of
0.5 to 1.5.

BETA FOR Portfolios.(?)

Betas of individual securities are not


good estimators of future risk.
Betas of portfolios of 10 or more
randomly selected stocks are
reasonably stable.
Past portfolio betas are good estimates
of future portfolio volatility.

Question # 3
The risk free rate is 8%. The expected
return on the market portfolio is 16%.
Calculate the expected return on the
following securities.
security
A
B

beta
0.4
1.0

C
D

2.6
2.0

Solution # 3
Given, risk free rate
8%. R(f)
The expected return
on the market
portfolio 16%... R(m)

security

R(f) + beta*(R(m) R(f))

0.4

2.6

11.20%
16.00%
28.80%

24.00%

Question # 4
Calculate the beta
factor of the following
investments. Is
acceptance of the
investment worthwhile
based upon its level
of risk? The risk free
rate = 6%.

Prob.

Market Invest.

1/3

9%

6%

1/3

12%

30%

1/3

18%

18%

Solution # 4
prob(P)

P*(Rm-Avg(Rm))^2

P(1)(2)

Rm -Avg(Rm)

Ri -Avg (Ri)

(1)

(2)

0.33

-4.00

-12.00%

5.28

0.33

-1.00

12.00%

0.33

0.33

5.00

0.00%

8.25

13.86

0.12

0.158

-0.036

Beta = Cov(i,m)/ m2 = 0.12/.1386 = 0.86


Using CAPM, R(i) = R(f) +*(R(m) R(f)) = 12%
Expected return (18%) > req. return (12%),hence the
investment can be accepted.

Question # 5

The std. deviation of returns of the


security s 20% & that of the market
portfolio is 15%.calculate beta . When,
1. Cor (s,m)=0.7
2. Cor (s,m)=0.4
3. Cor (s,m)= -0.25

Solution # 5
Beta = Cov(s,m)/ m2 = sm cor(s,m)/ m2
Solving for the given values, we obtain
1. 20*15*0.7/225 = 0.93
2. 0.53
3. -0.33

Question # 6

1.
2.

The expected return on the market portfolio & the


risk free rate of return are estimated to be 13% &
9% resp. ABC Ltd. Has Just paid a dividend of Rs.
2per share with annual growth rate of 7%. The
sensitivity index (beta) of ABC has been found to be
1.2
Find out the equilibrium price for the shares of ABC
Ltd.
Examine the change in the price if
(i) risk premium increases by 2%
(ii) expected growth rate of dividends increases to
10%
(iii) market sensitivity index becomes 1.3 for the
script.

Solution # 6

Using CAPM, R(i) = R(f) +*(R(m) R(f))


the req. rate of return(R) = 9% +1.2*(13-9)=13.8%
Now , R = 13.8%
D = Rs. 2
g = 7%
1. The equilibrium price (P) = D(1+g)/ (R-g)Annuity
due
or, P = 2.14/ .068 = Rs. 31.47

Solution # 6
2.

Effect on price :
(i) if the risk premium increases by 2%,
Then R = 13.8% +2%
Therefore the equilibrium price (P) = Rs. 24.32
(ii) g=10%
We obtain, P =Rs. 57.9
(iii) Beta = 1.3 then, R = 14.2%
Hence , P = Rs. 29.72

Multiple choice

1.
2.
3.
4.

If the market return is below the risk free


rate, then the stocks which possess high
systematic risk gives returns which
_________ as compared to the stocks
which have a low systematic risks.
Are lower
Are higher
Cannot be determined
None of the above

Multiple choice

1.
2.
3.
4.

Of the following, the systematic risk


encompasses:
Business risk
Financial risk
Interest rate risk
Inflation risk

Multiple choice

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

A stock will not have a finite Beta if


Its correlation with the market is ve
The stock is highly volatile
The market index is stagnant
Both (2) & (3)
None of the above.

Multiple choice

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The ratio of non-diversifiable risk to total


risk can be symbolically depicted by
The square of the correlation coefficient
The beta
The root of beta
The ratio of stock volatility to market
volatility
None of the above.

Multiple choice

An economic survey
suggests that an
economic boom is in
offering. The following
data are available with
regards to asset A and B

Asset Beta

Correlation Residual
with market variance
returns
(%
squared)

1.5

0.9

0.1

0.1

1. Buy A
2. Sell A
3. Invest half of funds in A & other half in B
4. Buy B

CAPM-Assumptions
Individual investors are price takers.
Single-period investment horizon.
Investments are limited to traded financial
assets.
No taxes and transaction costs.

Assumptions (contd)
Information is costless and available to all
investors.
Investors are rational mean-variance
optimizers.
There are homogeneous expectations.

What are our conclusions


regarding the CAPM?
Recent studies have questioned its
validity.
Investors seem to be concerned with
both market risk and stand-alone risk.
Therefore, the SML may not produce a
correct estimate of ki.
(More...)

Cost of capital
Returns from the firms perspective
Firm raises money from both equity investors
and lenders. Both group of investors make their
investments expecting to make a return .
Firms average cost of funds, which is the
average return required by firms investors
What must be paid to attract funds

What sources of long-term


capital do firms use?
Long-Term
Capital

Long-Term
Debt

Preferred Stock

Retained
Earnings

Common Stock

New Common
Stock

Cost of equity
Expected returns for the equity investors
would include a premium for the risk in the
investment.. Cost of equity
Expected returns the lenders hope to
make on their investments includes a
premium for default risk .. Cost of debt.

The Logic of the Weighted Average


Cost of Capital
The use of debt impacts the ability to use
equity, and vice versa, so the weighted
average cost must be used to evaluate
projects, regardless of the specific financing
used to fund a particular project.

Basic Definitions
Capital Component
Types of capital used by firms to raise
money
kd = before tax interest cost
kdT = kd(1-T) = after tax cost of debt
kps = cost of preferred stock
ks = cost of retained earnings
ke = cost of external equity (new stock)

After-Tax Cost of Debt


The relevant cost of new debt
The yield to maturity on outstanding LT debt
is often used as a measure
Taking into account the tax deductibility of
interest
Used to calculate the WACC
kdT = bondholders required rate of return
minus tax savings
kdT = kd - (kd x T) = kd(1-T)

Cost of Preferred Stock


Rate of return investors require on the
firms preferred stock
The preferred dividend divided by the
net issuing price

k ps =

D ps
NP

D ps
P0 Flotation costs

D ps
P0 (1 F)

Cost of Retained Earnings


Rate of return investors require on the
firms common stock

D
1
k =k
+ RP =
+ g = k
s
RF
s
P
0

Weighted Average Cost of


Capital, WACC
A weighted average of the component
costs of debt, preferred stock, and
common equity
Proportion After - tax Proportion Cost of Proportion Cost of
cost of + of preferred preferred + of common common
=
of
debt debt stock stock equity equity
=

wd

k dT

w ps

k ps

ws

ks

Three ways to determine cost of


common equity, ks

1. CAPM: ks = kRF + (kM kRF)b.


2. DCF: ks = D1/P0 + g.
3. Own-Bond-Yield-Plus-Risk
Premium: ks = kd + RP.

Cost of Capital and Firm Value

A Pictorial View

WACC lowest

What factors influence a companys


composite WACC?

Market conditions.
Level of interest rates
Tax rates
The firms capital structure and dividend
policy.
The firms investment policy. Firms with
riskier projects generally have a higher
WACC.

mistakes to avoid
Use of current cost of debt : the interest
rate the firm would pay if it issues the debt
today.
when determining the market risk
premium, use current rate in both the
cases . i.e. current risk free rate & current
expected rate of return on the stock.

Important !!!

Group A Money Market in India (**)


Group B Indian F/O Market ()
Group C Trading & Exchange (*)
Group D listing in foreign Exchanges ()
Group E - FOREX Market (**)
Group F financial Institutions- developmental/NBFC
(***)
Group G Function of RBI (***)
Group H financial sector reforms (***)
Group I Indian Banking System (***)

Important!!
See problem number 64 and 71 of
workbook . (page # 583 and page# 585)

You might also like