07 2015 12

1974 2002

1974 2002 OLS

2002

OLS

jasonjan@gmail.comjasonjan@nccu.edu.tw02-2939-3091#80507
11605 64
1

1974 2002

The Shifting Effects of Higher Education and

Economic Conditions on the Fertility in Taiwan:
The Comparison between Hierarchical Linear
Models in 1974 and 2002
Jie-Sheng Jan2
Post-doctoral Fellow, Department of Sociology, National Chengchi University
ABSTRACT
Demographic transition and wealth flows theory suggest that changes of social
values result in voluntary fertility decline. This study aims to demonstrate the shifting roles of
education and economic constraints as the key factors in determining the fertility level in
Taiwan in the past thirty years. This study also justifies higher education rate as a better
indicator of education than illiteracy rate to predict lowest low fertility in Taiwan. Two data
sets at the county level, one in 1974 and the other in 1998-2002, are utilized in OLS
regressions to compare the effects of social and economic determinants on fertility. Due to the
limitation of small number of observations at the county level, a data set at the township level
in 2002 is introduced in a two level analysis to confirm statistically significant associations of
social and economic determinants with low fertility. Results from OLS regressions and two
level analyses both show that economic factors (male unemployment rates and female labor
force participation rates) become more important than higher education in affecting fertility
levels.

Keywords: Lowest-low fertility rate; Higher education; Unemployment; Female labor

participation

E-mail: jasonjan@gmail.com; jasonjan@nccu.edu.tw

Tel: +886-2-2939-3091 ext. 80507
Department of Sociology, National Chengchi University
No. 64, Sec. 2, ZhiNan Rd., Wenshan District, Taipei City 11605, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
2

 07 2015 12

lowest-low fertility rates

1.5 2.1

Caldwell and
Schindlmayr 2003

Poston and Glover 2005

Chang et al. 1987; Freedman et al. 1994Bongaarts2001278

1974 2002

20

Caldwell et al. 1988

wealth flows theory

Caldwell 2005

Caldwell 2005; Caldwell and Schindlmayr

2003

Freedman 1979
Gauthier 2002Esping-Andersen
1996

Caldwell and Schindlmayr 2003

 07 2015 12

41 21
Population Report 2004

1970-1973 19731976 Sun et al. 1978 1976 1980

2.8 Chang 1982 1 total fertility
rates 1980
2004
68.9
2 14.6 3 2008
2008 2822 2.12
Jejeebhoy 1978

2 Bongaarts 2002
2 Leridon 2005

1974 2002

1 , 1970-2003

maternal role incompatibility hypothesis

Stycos and Weller 1967 1970
Brewster and Rindfuss
2000 1980
Stokes and Hsieh 19831982 2002
2012

1990 Caldwell and

Schindlmayr 2003 1980
Houseknecht 1982
1990
6

 07 2015 12

Bernhardt 1993Pinnelli 1995Rindfuss and Brewster 1996Brewster and

Rindfuss 2000Papapetrou 2004Billari and Kohler 2004
1990

1990

1970
Caldwell and Schindlmayr
2003
Adser 2004

Namkee and Pedro

2001

Lin 1998

1974 2002

Hull and Hull 1977

Yamanaka et al. 1982

Freedman et al. 1977Chang et

al. 1987 1960 27 1979 11
1998 10

1970
Freedman et al. 1977

1980

Poston 2000 1990

1980 44.6 1990 48.62000
68.7 2004 80.1

11

 07 2015 12

Jain 1981

2009

Rindfuss et al. 1983

Anderson 1998179

Rindfuss and Morgan 1983

1980
Feeney 1991 2007
the
complete total fertility ratesLesthaeghe and Willems
1999tempo
2008

Ryder1980189-202

Hayward Aker
Dudley Poston Jr. Stanley Lieberson

1974 2002

Poston 2000Alker 1969Lieberson and Hansen 1974

Total fertility
rates 15
15

1974 2002 1974

2002 1974 15 5
2002 1998 2002 15 7
2002
1998 1999 2003

2002
1998 2002

OLS
OLS Stata
vif
OLS 1974
2002 TFR

1974

10

 07 2015 12

2002 1974

1974 20 2002 22

hierarchical linear models

2002
2002 352
() 2 3
352
20

1 1974 2002
1974 2.99 3.36 2.38 2003
1.23 1.63 0.95

1974 2.96
1998-2002 4.18 1974 42.45
1998-2002 45.671974
1.27 1998-2002 21.08 1974
60.341998-2002 33.481974
1998-2002 1974 15
11

1974 2002

15

Mean Std. Dev.

Min

Max

1974

20

2.99

0.26

2.38

3.36

20

2.96

1.26

1.10

5.60

20

42.45

11.07 22.00

60.60

20

1.27

20

60.34

2003

22

1.23

0.18

0.95

1.63

1998-2002

22

4.18

0.56

3.08

5.14

1998-2002

22

45.67

3.00 39.84

52.58

1998-2002

22

21.08

8.33

8.73

42.69

1998-2002

22

33.48

2.00 29.79

36.31

0.94

0.52

4.27

1.04 58.37

62.46

1998-2002

2 1974 1 1974
2

4
3 0.815 1974

1974

12

 07 2015 12

2 1974 OLS (N=20)

Model 1

Economic Factors

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

b
Beta()
(1/VIF)

b
Beta()
(1/VIF)

B
Beta()
(1/VIF)

b
Beta()
(1/VIF)

-.114*
-.548*
(.676)

-.024
-.114
(.579)

.000

-.003

.000
(.676)

-.131
(.704)

Social Factors

-.303**
-.670**

-.369**
-.815**

-.310**
-.685**

(.579)

(.704)

(.953)
6.758
.266
(.953)

Constant

3.324

1.678

1.441

-2.503

Adj-R2

0.218

.508

.513

.575

* P < 0.05 (two-tailed); ** P < 0.01 (two-tailed)

13

1974 2002

3 1998 2002
1998 2002

1974 2002

1998 2002
1974 1998 2002

14

 07 2015 12

1998-2002a OLS (N=22)

Model 1

Economic Factors

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

b
Beta
1/VIF

b
Beta
1/VIF

B
Beta
1/VIF

b
Beta
1/VIF

-.244**
-.716**
(.963)

-.214**
-.629**
(.942)

-.142**
-.418**
(.658)

.009

.002**

.014*

.340**
(.865)

.227*
(.879)

.142
(.963)
Social Factors

-.014**
-.619**

-.009**
-.377**

-.009**
-.414**

(.861)

(.742)

(.674)

-.032*
-.338*
(.517)

-.056**
-.591**
(.751)

Constant

1.891

1.492

3.139

2.708

Adj-R2

.441

.795

.747

.666

1998 2002 2003

P < 0.1 (two-tailed); ** P < 0.01 (two-tailed)

15

1974 2002

Hierarchical Linear Models

1
Level-1
B0R
Level-2
B0 0000

4 1 intra-class correlation
0.5343 53.43
46.57
00 Chi-squared
295.21 19 00 0.0304 0
ANOVA model
2

16

 07 2015 12

4 a (Level 2 N=20; Level 1 N=352)

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Gamma ()
Coefficient

Gamma ()
Coefficient

Gamma ()
Coefficient

.3944**

.4237**
-.1783**
.0251**

.4243**
-.1750**
.0236**

-.2468**

-.2444**
-.0343
.0027

-.7336**

-.7688**

Fixed Part
For intercept 1
Intercept 2, 00
, 01
, 02
For slope, B1
Intercept 2, 10
, 11
, 12
For slope, B2
Intercept 2, 20
, 21
, 22

.2198
.0703

Variance Components
Intercept1, (County level)
00
slope, 10
slope, 20

.0304**

.0022**
.0003
.6849**

.0022**
.0006
.9249**

Level-1, (Township level) 2

ICC(Intra-class correlation)=
R2*=[ 00 (ANOVA model)- 00 (random model)]/ 00 (ANOVA model)
R2*=[ 2 (ANOVA model)- 2 (random model)]/ 2 (ANOVA model)

.02649
.5343

.00862

.00857

.9276
.6746

.9276
.6765

p < 0.1 (two-tailed); * P < 0.05 (two-tailed); ** P < 0.01 (two-tailed)

17

1974 2002

2
Level-1
B0B1+ B2R
Level-2
B000010200
B11010
B2 = 2020

3
Level-1
TFRB0B1B2R
Level-2
B000010200
B1101112+ 10
B220212220

robust
2002 1974

18

 07 2015 12

00 ANOVA
model 0.0304 0.0022R2*
0.9276 92.76
2 0.0265 0.0086
R2* 0.6746 67.46
0010 20

1974

1970
1978 78
39 1980 1.23
21

1996
2002 5.9
19

1974 2002

1.24
2002
1970 1996
1990

1974
2002

1970
1974 2002

21

1998 2002

20

 07 2015 12

200836: 37-65
2004
2008

2009
39: 119-155
201244: 87124
20073: 37-60

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26