DRR Uloga Medunarodnog Monetarnog Fonda U Savremenoj Ekonomskoj Krizi

.
, 2011.
.................................................................................................................... 14
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... 15
.............................................................................................................. 16
............................................................................................................................ 19
...................... 26
I .......................................... 27
1. ..................................................... 27
2. , ....................... 32
3. ............................................................................... 39
3.1. ...................................................................................................................... 39
3.2. ....................................... 42
3.3. .............................................................................................................. 47
3.4. ........................................................................................ 52
4. ...................................................... 59
4.1. (SBA) ................................................................................ 63
4.1.1. (SAF) .......................................... 66
4.1.2. (ESAF) .................... 66
4.1.3. (PRGF) ................................... 67
4.2. (FCL) ................................................................. 68
4.3. (PCL) ......................................................... 71
4.4. (EFF)................................................... 72
4.5. .................................. 73
4.5.1. (ECF) ....................................................... 77
4.5.2. (SCF) ........................................................... 78
4.5.2.1. (ESF)......................................................... 79
4.5.3. (RCF)................................................... 80
4.5.4. (PSI) ....................................................... 82
4.6. (HIPC) ............ 82
3
4.7. (MDRI) ......................................... 84

4.8. (Emergency assistance) ................................. 86
4.9. (PCDR Trust) ........................... 87
4.10. .............................................................................. 87
II
....... 89
1. - ................................ 89
2.
...................................................................................................................... 95
2.1. - .............................................. 97
2.2. .............................................................................. 102
2.3. ....................................................................... 105
2.4. ........................................................................... 109
2.5. - ........... 112
2.5.1. : .............................. 118
2.5.2. : ............................. 121
2.5.3. ........................................... 124
3. ................................................ 128

-,

................................................................................................................... 133
I
............................. 134
1.
........................................................................................................................... 134
2. ............ 146
3.
......................................................................................... 149
3.1. - .................................................. 149
3.2. - .................................................... 154
3.3. - .................. 164
3.4. - ................................................ 169
II
...................................................................... 175
1. - ..................................................... 175
1.1. .......................................................................................... 175
1.2. ............................................................................................ 176
1.3. ( ) ............................................................ 177
1.3.1. . 1: -
?............................................................................................................... 178
1.3.2. . 2: -? .......... 181
1.3.3. . 3: -
-?........................................................................ 184
1.3.4. . 4: (.
, , ,...)
-?........................................................................................... 186
1.3.5. . 5: -
(
)? ......................................................................... 188
1.3.6. . 6:
? .......................................................................................................... 190
1.3.7. . 7: ,
? ............................................................................................ 192
1.3.8. . 8:
10 ?............................................... 194
1.3.9. . 9: -,
?........................ 195
1.3.10. . 10: -? .... 197
1.3.11. . 11:
- ( )?................ 198
1.3.12. . 12: ,
-, ?
................................................................................................................................. 201
2. - ...................................................... 202
III
...................................................................... 208
1. ... 208
1.1. ............................................ 210
1.2. ................... 214
2. (,
, )
................................................................................................................... 215
3.
................................................................................................... 218
3.1. ....................................................................... 221
3.2. .......... 223
3.3. .............................................. 226

............................................................................ 229
I
...................... 230
1. - .............. 230
1.1. - ................................................................. 230
1.2. - ................... 235
1.3. - ........................................................... 241
2.
- ......................................................................................................................... 246
3. - ............. 251
II
- . 264
1. .................................................. 264
1.1. ........................................................... 264
1.2. ........... 267
2.
................................................................................................. 270
2.1. ( , ,
) ......................................................................................................... 272
2.2. ................................ 275
2.3. ....................................................................................... 277
2.4. .................................................................................................. 279
2.5. ....................................... 282
2.6. ......................................................................................... 284
2.7. , ,
................................................................................................................... 287
2.8. ............................................... 290
2.9.
............................................................................ 292
3.
...................................................................................... 297
................................................................................................................. 301
..................................................................................................................... 311
1: - ...................... 312
2: ................................................ 314
3: - ... 315
4:
, 2009. 2011. ........................................................... 318
5: : , - ......... 319
6:
- ( ).............................................. 321
............................................................................................................. 323
,

I
:
. 1: -
. 2: - ,
. 3: (-20)
. 4: , 1981-2015.
. 5:
. 6: ()
. 7: ()
. 8: -
. 9: -
. 10:
. 11: - 1953-1998.
. 12: - 20002009.
. 13: -
- (SBA), (FCL)
(EFF) - 2010.
. 14: , 2000-2014.
. 15: PRGF
. 16:
. 17: PRGF
- 2010.
. 18: MDRI
:
. 1: -
:
. 1: -
. 2: -
. 3:
II

:
. 1: -
, 1952-1998.
. 2:

. 3: - ,

. 4: a, e e e
. 5: , 1991-2003.
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:
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. 2: , 1970-1988.
. 3:
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. 6: ,
, , ,
. 7: , , ,
2006-2009.
. 8: -27

I

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( : , ;
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( : , ;
)
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11
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:
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. 2: , 2008.

I

:
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. 2: -,

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. 4: -, 2001-2011.
5: -, 31.12.2010.
. 6: -, 31.12.2010.
. 7:
SBA -,11.3.2009.
. 8: -,
01. 1992. 31. 2010.
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01.01.2005. 31.08.2010.
. 10: -,
31.12.1992. 31.12.2010.
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01.01.2010. 31.12.2010.
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- ( )
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2009-2010.
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:
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( 11.06.2001. 15.04.2011. )
. 3: , 2008- 2011.
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12
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( 31.12.2010)
. 4:
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:
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( 31.12.2009. 01.11.2010. )
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( 31. 2010)
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13

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14
THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IN

A CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC CRISIS
ABSTRACT
International Monetary Fund was created with the purpose of normalizing the
international financial and monetary situation in the world, and with respect to sovereign
rights of all states of the world. Over time, this financial institution has upgraded and
developed its financial instruments, adjusting itself to the needs of the contemporary
society, and with the start of the last global financial crisis, numerous questions
concerning the need for a new role for the International Monetary Fund in the future and
for its further participation in the world financial architecture raised.
The purpose of the doctoral thesis titled Role of the International Monetary Fund
in the contemporary economic crisis is to provide a critical evaluation of importance of
the IMF arrangements made to date and of those expected, in development of the world
economy, in establishing higher fairness and stability in the global economy, as well as in
strengthening multilateralism of payment in the world economy by enhancing the special
drawing rights and by introducing additional (new) currencies in the world monetary
system.
Having in mind also the critical reviews of the world economists and the practical
examples of specific countries, this work is focused on defining importance of the IMF
arrangements for Serbia. The importance of arrangements can be viewed within the
framework of direct benefits reflecting in aims to be pursued with the arrangement itself,
achieved effects, fund utilisation rates etc. The importance of arrangements can be also
viewed within the framework of indirect benefits, that can be even higher and more
significant for the state economy, through the increased inflow of funds from the other
international institutions (e.g. Paris Club, European Union, European Investment Bank,
etc.) and foreign investors, that, on the basis of the IMF presence, arrive at the conclusion
that the macroeconomic situation in the country is under control, stable and that there
are favorable conditions for investments.
KEY WORDS: The International Monetary Fund, Articles of Agreement, Republic

of Serbia, programs (IMF), loans and lending (IMF), conditions and conditionality,
Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies, Stand-by Arrangements (SBAs),
Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), voters and voting, an economic crises.
15

AfDF
ARM
BP
BRIC/
CA
CACs
CCFF
CFF
CCL
CEI
CIEZ
CVA
EFF ()
/ (African Development Fund)

/ (adjustable rate morgage)
/ (balance of payments)
: , ,
/ (current account)
/ (collective action clauses)

(compensatory and contingency financing facility)

(compensatory financing facility)
/ (Contingent Credit Line)
/ (Central European Initiative)

(currency value account)

(Extended Fund Facility)
EMU
ECF
ESAF
ESF
FCL
FDI ()
FSAP
FSSA
GAB ()
GDP ()
GRA ()
HIPC
IaDB
IBRD
IDA
IMFC
LIC

E / (Economic and Monetary Union)
/(Extended Credit Facility)

(Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility)
()
(Exogenous Shocks Facility)
/ (Flexible Credit Line)

(Financial Sector Assessment Program)

(Financial Sector Stability Assessment)
()
(General Arrangements to Borrow )
() / (GrossDomestic Product)
/ (General Resources Account)

(Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative)
-
(Inter-American Development Bank)

(International Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

(International Development Association)

-
(International Monetary and Financial Committee)

/
(Low-Income Countries)
16
MBS
MDRI
/ (mortgage backed security)

(Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative)
MM (IMF) / (International Monetary Fund)
MRC
/ (Millennium Development Goals)
NAB
()
(New Arrangements to Borrow)

OFF
/ (Oil Fund Facility)
PCL

(Precautionary Credit Line)
PCDR Trust
(Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief Trust)

PRGF
PRG
PRSP
PSI
RCF
SAF
SBA
SB (WB)
SCF
SDA
(SDRs)
SRF
STF
UN
UNDP
WEF
VA
e
(Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility)

(Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust)

(Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers)
/ (Policy Support Instrument)
/ (Rapid Credit Facility)

/ (Structural Adjustment Facility)
/ (Stand-by Arrangement)
/ (World Bank)
/ (Standby Credit Facility)

/ (Special Drawing Rights)
/ (Supplemental Reserve Facility)

(systematic transformation facility) TF
/ (Trust Fund)
/ (United Nations)

(United Nations Development Programme)
/ (World Economic Forum)
/ (value added tax)

:
Articels of Agreement MM-a
Band (upper limit, lower limit) ( , )
bank rate ()
base rate
basic rate of charge
Basel Capital Accord
basic rate of pay -
Buffer stock financinf facility
Buy-back
17
Cash crunch -
Capital flight
Congation
Convertibility Plan
Crawling peg -
Credit crunch
Currency mismatches
Debt equity swaps
Debt intolerance
Emergency assistance -
Emergency Natural Disaster Assistance -
Emergency Post-conflict Assistance -
ex ante conditionality -
ex post conditionality -
exceptional access
exchange rate -
export-led strategies
external debt
external financing gap
financing insurance review
financial framework -
FY
high-access component -
indikativ targets
interest- free repayment
lack of capital
lender of last resort - ()
net foreign assets-
nonperforming loans
quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) -
overexpose
precautionary access
precautionary arrangement
price-specie-flow mechanism -
rapid-access component -
rate of exchange
rate of interest
rates and taxes -
Real Plan -
Resceduled -
service charge ( )
service the foreign debt
sovereign dept
standstill
structural performance criteria -
tax exemptions
threshold value
venture capital -
18

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, : IMF, World Economic and Financial Surveys, Regional
Economic Outlook Europe, Building Confidence, October 2010.
,
-. Bas Bakker,
Outlook and Policy Issues for
Emerging European Economies, - Yuko Kinoshita,
, Emerging Europe and the Global Crisis: Lessons from the BoomBust.

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27. 1945.
. 31. 35 ,
. - :
: -: Summary
Proceedings of the First Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors, September 27 to
October 3, 1946.
32

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1975. .
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1986. . ,
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http://www.imf.org/external/about/govstruct.htm
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( 30. 2009. )
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. ( , 2009, .337)
:
1. -
,
42
,
,
2. -,
3.
.
( 0,888671
).
, 1974.

. 16 , 4 (,
, ).
, , .
.
, ,
, ,

.(Allen Mark, IMF).

. 10
, . (
, : ekonomist.org).

, . ,
.(Peter Bakvis, ITUC,
Washington).
. 4: , 1981-2015.
( 1 )
USD
DEM
JPY
GBP
FRF
1981-1985.
0.540 (42%)
0.460 (19%)
34.0 (13%)
0.0710 (13%)
0.740 (13%)
1986-1990.
0.452 (42%)
0.527 (19%)
33.4 (15%)
0.0893 (12%)
1.020 (12%)
1991-1995.
0.572 (40%)
0.453 (21%)
31.8 (17%)
0.0812 (11%)
0.800 (11%)
1996-1998.
0.582 (39%)
0.446 (21%)
27.2 (18%)
0.1050 (11%)
0.813 (11%)
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP
1999-2000.
0.5820 (39%)
0.3519 (32%)
27.2 (18%)
0.1050 (11%)
2001-2005.
0.5770 (45%)
0.4260 (29%)
21.0 (15%)
0.0984 (11%)
2006-2010.
0.6320 (44%)
0.4100 (34%)
18.4 (11%)
0.0903 (11%)
2011-2015.*
0.6600 (41,9%)
0.4230 (37,4%)
12.1000(11,3%)
0.1110 (9,4%)
*IMF: Press Release No. 10/434, November 15, 2010.

: - : IMF Determines New Currency
Weights for SDR Valuation Basket, September 29, 2010.
43
50% 60% , ,
, .

. ( , , ).
,

. 2005. ,

,
1. 2006. .
( 2000-2005) 30. 2010.
, 01. 2011. .
,
.

.
70
, 70
5 .
:
-
;
- ,
- , . ( , 1981,
. 319).

.

.
.
4% ,
6%.
,
,
.

.
.
, . 01.01.2011.
: 41,9%, 37,4%, 11,3% 9,4%.
2002. 1 1,27 , 2006.
1,48 , 19.01.2011. 1 1,55
(1 = 0.643514 ).
44
. 5:
- EUR
- 19.01.2011.

*

O-1
0.4230
1.34590
0.569316
12.1000
82.24000
0.147130
- GBP
0.1110
1.59930
0.177522
0.6600
1.00000
0.660000
- JPY
1.553968
**
1 = 0.643514
1 = 1.55397 ***
* (JPY) 1 ,

** 0-2() -
.

.
,
.
,
.
*** , .
:
.
3,
( ).
,
,
.
: IMF, SDR Valuation, January 19, 2011.
(
1970-1972) 9,3 .
( 2/3 1973. ),
. 1973. 6%
(IMF, International Financial Yearbook, 1989).
45
12,1 .
1979. 1981. , ,
21,4 .
, 28. 2009. (161,2
) 9. 2009. (21,5 ),
204,1 .
, 110
, 20
.
(: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW090509A.htm,
09.09.2010.).
1970-

( , 2006, . 122).
,

. ,
1,5% (
).
.

. ,

, ,
,
, .
, . (
, 2010, . 403 408).
,
85% , (
), .
, , ,
, ,
, ,
.
,
.

,
,
. (
- , -, 2009, . 424)

46
. ,
.
, -

. ,
30% . , ,
20 ,
20 ,
60
.
, ,
. ( , 2010, . 404- 405).
,
.
, ,
. ( ,
).
3.3.
, 2007. ,
.
-20, 2. 2009. ,
,
250 750 .
,
( ),
, -
.

- (General Arrangements to Borrow GAB) 1962.
. .
2007. ( 2008.
). - 11
( ),
, .
,
1983. (
1982. )
().
17 . ( 1983. 6 . ),
1,5 . .
( -: IMF Standing
Borrowing Arrangements, September 29, 2010).
47
. 6: ()

(1962 - 1983)
(1983 2008)
( )
( )
143
595
165
893
1.476
2.380
395
1.700
235
1.105
1.161
2.125
244
850
79
383
-Bundesbank
Sveriges Riksbank

1.020
565
1.700
1.883
4.250
6.344
17.000
1.500
( )
1
30. 1982.
250.000 23. 1976.
: .
: IMF, IMF Standing Borrowing Arrangements, September 29, 2010
2
1994.
,
7 (Halifax Summit) 1995.
10
-
. - , , 17.
1997. (New
Arrangements to Borrow), 1998. .
- 26
-
34 . ( . 7: - ).
48
. 7: ()
( )
1.
801
2.
408
3.
340
4.
957
5.
1.381
6.
367
7.
3.519
8.
340
9.
2.549
10.
340
11.
1.753
12.
3.519
13.
340
14.
341
15.
340
16.
340
17.
1.302
18.
379
19.
1.761
20.
340
21.
665
22.Sveriges Riksbank
850
23.
1.540
24.
340
25.
2.549
26.
6.640
1
34.000
1
: IMF, IMF Standing Borrowing Arrangements, September 29, 2010

, ,
.
, 2009. 51 .
( 70 . ) , 17 .
- 34 . -. -
,
1998. , 9,1
. , 2,9 . . -
. 1998.
49
6,3 . ,
1,4 . .
- 1999. ,
,
.
, 2007.
, 2008. .
2009.
,
191 . . ( -: Where the IMF Gets its Money,
29. , 2010. ).
. 2009.
. - 100 .
( 68 . ).
- .
,
.
.
20, 2. 2009. ,

. 20
- ,
250 . , -.
- 12. 2010.
- 367,5 , 13
,
. ( . 8: - ).
-
, -,
- . -, -
-
: (1) ,
80 - (2)
-, -
26 39 . -,
85
. . - 2002.
-.
-.
, -.

, -
,
.
50
. 8: - 1

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
1
2
Sveriges Riksbank

( )
4.370,41
3.579,24
1.360,00
7.861,85
7.624,43
3.207,78
25.370,81
2.231,76
18.657,38
340
13.578,03
65.953,20
6.583,44
341,29
970,59
340,00
9.043,72
3.870,94
11.126,03
1.276,52
6.702,18
4.439,74
10.905,42
340,00
18.657,38
69.074,27
1.542,13
500,00
8.740,82
31.217,22
340,00
1.654,51
8.740,82
1.885,52
4.994,76
624,34
340,00
8.740,82
340,00
367.467,36
340 .
.
: IMF, IMF Standing Borrowing Arrangements, September 29, 2010.
51
3.4.
-
. -
. ,

:
(I)
-
;
(II)
- -;
(III) - 200
600 ,
.
, ,
() ,
, (,
)
. , . ,
, .
,
,
,
.

.
, 1963.
.
, ( ),
.
-,
25%
( , , , ) 75% .
,
, , .
() .

, .
25%, 125% .
, , ,

( ).
, .
- 25% -
, - (uper credit tranches).

52
, . ,
( ) 100
( ).
-,
, -
200% . 75%
, - 125%
, .
- 200% . , -,
,
( -) 75% (Dominick Salvatore, 2009, .
794 , 2008, . 102).
-
(. ), (. ) -
75% , -
, .
.
,
, -,
- (net IMF position). ,
-
- .
.
, ,
. ( , 2010, . 396 399).
()
5 , ,
.... ()
. ( - 30. 1978. , III,
2. - ).
1951. 8
.
25-50%.
53
. 9: -
( 2010. )

( )

1958/1959.*
1959.
60,7

1965.
30,7

1970.
35,4

1976.
33,6

1978.
50,9

1983.
47,5

1990.
50,5

1998.
45,0

( 2003)

( 2008)

100,0
**
*
** , -,
.
o: IMF, General Quota Reviews, November 5, 2010.
1990. -
50%, 90 135 .
1991. , 85%

-. ,
, -,
1992. .
2008. ,
.
:
(1)

, : (50%), (30%), (V)
(15%) (5%);
54
(2) (Y) -
, :
- 60%,
- 40%;
(3) () 0,95
.
(4) ()
(, , )
.
(5) ()
( , , -
).
0,95 ,
( ) .
.
(Q) :
Q = (0,5*Y + 0,3* + 0,15*V + 0,05*R)
(: -: Quota formula)

. ,
2008. , ,
-.
- 28. 2008.
.
, 2008.
:
;
ad-hok 54 ,
;
,
,
;

- ;
.
, 112
- 85 .
Ad hoc , , .
2008. .
55
2009. ,
,
2011. , .
- 5. 2010. 14.
.
100 ,
.
, 14. :
238,4 476,8 (
755,7 );
6
, 3.
-, (,
, ) 10 ;
.
PRGT -
1.135 2008. (
- IDA)
.
,
14. , 2013.
2014.
.
.
56
. 10:
- 14.01.2011.
:
1,49
32.614
1,47
2,12
46.302
2,08
1,40
30.611
1,38
2,93
63.942
2,88
3,72
81.151
3,65
4,94
107.635
4,85
5,98
130.332
5,87
1,91
41.832
1,88
3,24
70.805
3,19
6,12
133.378
6,01
1,35
29.523
1,33
1,45
31.778
1,43
2,37
51.874
2,34
2,73
59.704
2,69
3,21
70.105
3,16
1,40
30.739
1,38
1,10
24.205
1,09
1,59
34.835
1,57
4,94
107.635
4,85
17,09
371.743
16,74
1,22
26.841
1,21
3.236,4
4.605,2
3.036,1
6.369,2
8.090,1
10.738,5
13.008,2
4.158,2
7.055,5
13.312,8
2.927,3
3.152,8
5.162,4
5.945,4
6.985,5
3.048,9
2.395,5
3.458,5
10.738,5
37.149,3
2.659,1
21
157.233,4
72,3
1.577.584
71,05
166

(187 )
60.200,1
27,7
643.501
28,95
217.433,5
100,0
2.221.085
100,00
467,7
169,1
365,1
27,5
68,9
231,7
59,0
0,22
0,08
0,17
0,01
0,03
0,11
0,03
4.927
1.941
3.901
525
939
2.567
840
0,22
0,09
0,18
0,02
0,04
0,12
0,04
: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.htm#s
57
. -
250 100.000
.
, 31%
17% 2008. . , 37,1
. 371.743 , . 16,74%
,
85- , . .
, 6,12% ,
(5,98%), (4,94%) (4,94%).
1,8 (0,001%), 268 (0,01%
).
-,
, 2008. ad-hok
9,55% 217,4 . ( . 5).
:
, , , .
- 1969. , 85%
-
, ,
.
21,
()
.
- 1978. ,
, : 70% 80% ,
.

53. ( -, -, 2009, .
424-427)
58
4.
,
,
, .
1970- 1980-
-. 1990- ,
,
.
2000-,
2008. , ,
.
- .
-
, .
()
, ,
,
.
- . ,
-
(letter of intent)
, ,
. ( : ).
,
"", , , ,
.
, -,
-, ,
.
,
"" - .
- :
-.
,
,
,
.

: (Extended Credit
Facility - ECF), (Standby Credit Facility - SCF)
(Rapid Credit Facility - RCF).

(Stand-By Arrangements - SBA), (Flexible Credit
Line - FCL) (Extended Fund Facility EFC),
.
59
(Emergency
assistance), . (IMF
Factsheet, IMF Lending, : 19.08.2010).
,
(PRGT),
, 2010. .
a .
.
,
, .
PRGT
. ,
, PRGT,
. PRGT
100 300 .
. , ,
.
(The Extended Credit Facility - ECF)
(Poverty Reduction
and Growth Facility
- PRGF) e
e ,
.
, 5 , 10
.
(Standby Credit Facility - SCF)

. SCF
(Exogenous Shocks Facility - ESF)
, .
. 4 , 8 .
(Rapid Credit Facility - RCF),
,
, ,
. RCF
.

, 5 , 10 .
(SBA). -
SBA. SBA
.
-

(
""). SBA 12 24 ,
3 5 . SBA .
,
, - ,
60
. SBA (
) .
(Flexible Credit Line - FCL). FCL
, ,
. FCL
. FCL 6 1 (
), 3 5 (
SBA). ,
. , .
FCL ,
SBA. ,
,
.
(Extended Fund Facility EFF). 1974.
,
. EFF SBA, 3 .
4 10 , .
(Emergency assistance).

. (basic
rate of charge), .
3 5 .
- 1953. 2009.
. ( . 11 . 12).
61
. 11: - 1953-1998.
-
( 30. )
Stand-by
EFF
SAF
ESAF
1953.
2
2
1968.
32
32
1976.
18
2
20
1983.
27
4
31
1987.
22
10
32
1989.
12
1
4
7
24
1990.
16
3
3
4
26
1991.
13
2
2
3
20
1992.
21
2
1
5
29
1996.
19
4
1
8
32
1997.
11
5
12
28
1998.
9
4
8
21
EFF ; SAF
; ESAF .
: IMF, Annual Report 2004, Appendix II: Financial Operations and transactions,
. 105
. 12: - 20002009.
( 30. )
Stand-by
EFF
FCL
PRGF
ESF
2000.
2
2
2001.
32
32
2002.
13
13
2003.
18
2
20
2004.
27
4
31
2005.
22
10
32
2006.
12
1
4
7
24
2007.
16
3
3
4
26
2008.
13
2
2
3
20
2009.
9
4
8
21
EFF ; ESF
(); FCL ; PRGF e
.
: IMF, Annual Report 2009, Appendix II: Financial Operations and transactions,
. 1
62
4.1. (SBA)
-
.
,
, .
SBA ( )
. ,
SBA 12 24 , 36 ,
SBA .
: 1980. , 1981.
1981. . 1981.
400% (1,66 ; 2,1 ).
, -,
, SBA.

(
).
, ,
.
SBA ,
. (IMF Stand-By
Arrangement, November 23, 2010). SBA :
(Normal Access).
, 200
12 , 600 .
(Exceptional Access). ,
, ,
,
-. ,
SBA.
(Front-loaded access),
.
. - SBA
(The IMFs Emergency financing
mechanism).
-. 1995.
. .
(Precautionary access). SBA
,
, (High
access precautionary arrangements - HAPAs). ,
, .
(HAPAs) , : ,
.
63
, .
, ,
.
.
. -
( : , ).
. (
),
.
-
,
.

.
SBA 3 5
, ,
3 , .
SBA ,
(15 200%
, 30 200% 1000% 60
1000% . ,
( 50 ) .
( , 1981, . 317)
200 ,
300 .
300 , 300
,
-.
(
), 25% .
,
, 25%
.
,
. ,
,
, .
,
.

-.
SBA 1952. . SBA
12. 1952. , : 5
(IMF
Annual Report 1953, . 52), , 1953.
64
, 1952.
. (IMF Annual Report 1953, . 50).
: 1947. ,
.
.
, SBA
: (1956. ), (1956), (1957)
(1959). ,
.
,
.
SBA 19. 1962. ,
11. 1964. .
SBA 22. 1963. 1964. .
SBA 1970. 2. 1979. .
SBA (
) ( 6. 1978. 5.
1979. ) ( 7. 1983. 28. 1985.
).
SBA:
- 1954. ,
- , , - 1956. ,
- , - 1957. ,
- , , , 1958. ,
- 1959. .
SBA ,
.
, SBA , .
18. 1954. 17. 1958.
, . .
.
.
.
. 13
1965. 1977. ; 14 19761989, 15 (1963-1977). 18
1954. 1971. ,
: 1977-1980, 1982-1985, 1993-2004.
1968. 1987. (20 )
1992. 2002. . , 7 , 19611967, 1970. 1989. , 1995. 1999.
. : 1962-1969, 1971-1981, 19832000.

, 1963.
(EFF - Extended Fund Facility)
65
. 1980-,
1986. 1987. :
(SAF Structural Adjustment Facility)
(ESAF Enhanced Structural Adjustment
Facility). , EFF,

.
, EFF
.
, SBA 75%
-.
4.1.1. (SAF)
, , MM
1970- (Trust
Fund). 1977. 1981. 3
( 3,8 ).
(Struktural Adjustment Facilit SAF)
1986. ,
.
.
, 1986. 1995. 1,8
(. 2,4 ).

( ) :
0,5%, 5 , 10 .
,
.
.
(IDA),
SAF .
SAF 1996. . (IMF, IMF Annual Report
2005).
4.1.2. (ESAF)
(Enhanced Structural
Adjustment Facility ESAF) 1987. .
,
66
.
40 , ,
.
MM- . ,
, MM-
ESAF .
ESAF ,
,
.
1987. 1999.
7,6 ( 10,7 ), 90 ESAF,
52 . (IMF: IMF Concessional Financing through the ESAF).
56
, ,
1 .

e
(PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility).
, -
, .
4.1.3. (PRGF)
e (Poverty Reduction and Growth
Facility - PRGF)
(ESAF).
,
,
.
e
,
,
.
PRGF 1999. .
,
, .

PRGF.
( PRGF : IMF, Review of
PRGF Program Design Overview, 2005).
PRGF
,
(PRSP).
67
- ,
HIPC .
PRGF .
2008. , 78
PRGF , : , , ,
, , , , , , , ,
, , , , ,
, , , , ,
, , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , , , .
-
,
IDA ( 2007.
1.095 ). PRGF
0,5%,
, 5 10 .
280 - . PRGF
370 . (IMF: The Poverty
Reduction and Growth Facility, July 31, 2009).

, ;
.
.
MM-
, MM PRGF ECF.

. , PRGF .
PRGF (ECF).
4.2. (FCL)
(Flexible Credit Line FCL)
,
. FCL .
. 6
.
, SBA. (IMF: IMFs Flexible Credit Line (FCL), October
5, 2010).
FCL ,
,
.
FCL: , .
68
MM-

. FCL
.
, FCL :
(
)
.
( )
.
FCL ,
.
FCL, 3 5 .
FCL
. ,
(
- commitment fee),
.
24 27 , 500 1000
.
MM-,
FCL .
, FCL (
SBA) 500 1000 , 2,3 2,9
. .
300 MM-, 3 ,
2,7 3,6 .
FCL
MM-
.
:
- ,
- , , -
,
- .
FCL
:
- ,
- ,
-
,
- ( FCL ),
- , ,
- ,
,
69
(
),
,
.
. 13: -
- (SBA), (FCL)
(EFF) - 2010.
27 SBA
26 SBA
23.11.2009.
8.07.2009.
858,9
1.014,6
12 FCL
28 SBA
11.05.2009.
9.11.2009.
6.966,0
1.094,5
36 SBA
24 SBA
27 SBA
36 SBA
12 FCL
36 EFF
12 FCL
24 SBA
36 EFF
20 SBA
17.03.2010.
24.02.2010.
4.02.2010.
4.12.2009.
25.03.2010.
29.01.2010.
6.05.2009.
4.05.2009.
23.12.2009.
24.07.2009.
513,9
2.376,8
820,5
49,2
31.528,0
184,8
13.690,0
11.443,0
19,8
1.653,6
72.213,6
22.06.2009.
29.06.2009.
6.08.2009.
7.08.2009.
165,6
651,4
270,0
2.067,4
15.05.2009.
2.268,3
5.422,7
77.636,3
28 Stand-By
15 Stand-By
33 Stand-By
25
Stand-By

27 Stand-By
: IMF, IMF Finance Department, 2010.
70
4.3. (PCL)

. (PCL)

.

: FCL - ex-post High-Access
Precationary Stand-By Arrangement (HAPA)
.
FCL
HAPA ,
FCL . PCL
( FCL), ex-post
,
.
.
PCL ,
. PCL
, 500 1000
12 ,
.
, PCL

. , ,
.
PCL :
;
- - ,
.

PCL , FCL
, :
(i)
,
(ii)
,
(iii) ,
(iv)
;
(v)
.
, PCL
.
PCL:
(i)

,
71
(ii)

,
(iii)
, ( );
(iv)
() .
PCL
.
PCL .
PCL , (3 5 ),
FCL SBA. ,
,
.
24 27 500 1000 .
PCL
.
,
. , 300 ,
200 . 300
, 300 .
-. ,
FCL ( SBA) 500 1000
2,1 2,7 , 2,5 3,4 3 .
4.4. (EFF)
(Extended Fund Facility EFF)

,
( ),

. 1974. .
, ,
SBA,
. EFF
-,
.
EFF
, : ,
.
: 200 -
600 ; ,
. EFF ,
.
72
(
), EFF
. EFF- SBA ,
EFF- ,
3 4 .
, 4 10 , ,
12 .
EFF
,
. (IMF, IMFs Extended Fund Facility, October 5, 2010).
4.5.
- je 23. 2009.
(LICs)

, .
,
() PRGF-ESF Trust.
, ,
.
7. 2010. ,
PRGF-ESF Trust .

2014. ,
11,3 (17 )
2,5 2008. -
( 4,7 ). ,
9 (14
) 1,5 (2,8
). 1,8
10,8 2010. ,
. , ,
.
, ,
-,
- 18. 2009. ,
0,2 0,4 ,
.
11,3
(17 ) 2014. , 8
. ,
2011. .
73
2009. -
2,5 (3,8 ), 0,8
(1,2 ) 2008. .
,
2,7 (4 ) 2010. . (
. 14: , 2000-2014). ,
1,5 , .
. ,
11,3 2014. .
. 14: , 2000-2014.
- 2009.
1 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014.
2009-14.
2000-08.

0,7
2,7
2,7
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
11,4

1,0
4,0
4,0
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2,3
2,3
2,3
17,2
1/
2/
.
1,5 .
10,8 (16
) .
2010. , 1,1
. ,
.
. 15: PRGF
( , 2010. )

10,8
:
9,0

1,8
1
1,1
9,7
memorandum items
,
1/
6,5
: ,

2,5 NPV
2008. , 4,7 ( . 16:
74
). 11,3
,
2011. ,
a ,
. PRGF ESF Trust,
1,5 (2,8
).
. 16:
( ; -2008. NPV )

2.5
:
1.0

1.5

PRGF-ESF
0.62

0.2-0.4
RGF-ESF ( 3 )
0.15-0.2
1
0.5-0.6
1/
10 .
,
-
0,2 0,4 .
,
, 2010. ,
PRGF-ESF Trust
PRGF-ESF Trust PRGT.
, 0,15 0,2
.
-
0,62

0,7
2014. - 2015. .
- 0,5 0,6
,
. ,

850 .
,
.
-
,
, .
75
,
,
. ,
, PRGT.

,
. :
(i)

PRGT,
(ii)
(GLA) PRGT
, ,

Trust ,
(iii) (GSA) Trust

PRGT,
. ,
PRGT ,
PRGT
.
:
(ECF)
(PRGF)
,
;
(SCF),
, SBA,
(RCF), , ,
.
(Trust Fund) ,
( 1:
):
. 3:
PRGT
RCF
.
SCF
.
ECF
.
GLA
GSA
ECF

SCF

RCF

ESF

RCF
SCF
1/
PRGF,
ESF ECF
SCF
RCF
ESF
PRGF,
ESF
ECF
1/
76
(GLA):
PRGT.
, , PRGF-ESF Trust,
.
PRGT
.
:
PRGT .
, , PRGT
.

.
.
(GSA):
, PRGT.
,

.
4.5.1. (ECF)
(Extended Credit Facility ECF)
. ECF

(Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust - PRGT),
ECF PRGF
, ,
.
PRGF, ECF

.
ECF
PRGT,
.
ECF 3 ,
2 . ECF ,
ECF .
ECF ,
, ,
(access norms), 120%
75% 100%
, .
PRGT 100 , 300 .
77
.
, .
ECF,
. ,
, .
,
, ,
(PRSP) ECF
.

, , ,
, .
ECF ,
, .

, .
, , ,
, ,
.
. ,
-,
. ,
.
ECF ,
, 10 .
4.5.2. (SCF)
(Standby Credit Facility - SCF)

. e PRGT . SCF
- (ESF-HAS).
, , ,

. (IMF, IMF Standby Credit Facility (SCF), September 27, 2010).
, ,

, . SCF

.
SCF
PRGT,
, (
)
78
. SCF 1 2
. SCF ,
2 5 .
, SCF ,
.
,
, SCF .
. ,
, , .
SCF
,
.

, .
SCF 0,25%,
2011. . SCF 4
8 . 15 ,
, .
4.5.2.1. (ESF)
(Exogenous Shocks Facility ESF)
2006.

().
, , ,
, . ESF
PRGF ,
. PRGF. (
-: IMF, Establishment of an Exogenous Shocks Facility Under the Poverty
Reduction and Growth Facility Trust, 2005).
ESF 2008. 2009. ,

.
50% ,
.
150% , .

,
PRGF. ESF
(PSI)
. K
.
79
, ,
, .
25% 50% ,
.
- (ESF-HAC)
2008. , (SCF).
ESF-HAC ,
. (IMF, The Exogenous Shocks Facility
High Access Component (ESF-HAC), March 25, 2010).
ESF 2011. (0,25%
), , 5 10 .
4.5.3. (RCF)
(Rapid Credit Facility RCF)
,
( )
(
) ( ). RCF
PRGT. (IMF Rapid Credit Facility (RCF),
- : 23.08.2010).
RCF (emergency assistance),
,
, ,
,
. (
/, :

).
RCF .
, ,
,
RCF ECF
. RCF

.
RCF 25 75
,
RCFs shocks window (50 100
).
RCF ,
. RCF
, , 10 .
80
. 17: PRGF
- 2010.
-

ECF* -
21.09.2009.
13,6

11.12.2009.
346,5
15.07.2009.
387,5
18.04.2010.
8,8
19.02.2010.
52,1
15.03.2010.
77,3
29.01.2010.
184,8
1.070,4
ECF **
24.06.2009.
9,3

14.12.2009.
33,1
.
29.06.2009.
25,1
19.02.2010.
4,7
3.06.2009.
4,4
27.01.2010.
65,5

17.06.2009.
10,4
01.05.2009.
171,2
323,6
ESF -
26.08.2009.
153,8
4.12.2009.
8,2
30.06.2009.
113,6
29.05.2009.
218,8
494,3
ESF
19.06.2009.
72,8
ESF
2.07.2009.
92,85
10.07.2009.
3,28
29.05.2009.
135,7
7.12.2009.
5,8
.
27.07.2009.
6,89
.
15.05.2009.
3,735
248,3
2.209,4
* e e (PRGF)
**
: IMF, Annual Report 2010, . 26
81
4.5.4. (PSI)
(Policy Support Instrument- PSI)
-,

. PRGT,
. PSI
,
,
. (IMF, The Policy Support Instrument, March 31, 2010).
PSI -
. ,
, ,
,
.
PSI 1 3 ,
4 . PSI
ECF, , PSI
RCF SCF. PSI
RCF SCF, PSI
a SCF. PSI
SCF,
.

,
.
.
,
( ).
- 2010. PSI
, : 17.10.2005, 01.02.2006. 15.12.2006, Cape Verde
01.8.2006, 16.02.2007, 26.6.2007. 2.11.2007. .
4.6. (HIPC)
(Heavily
Indebted Poor Countries - HIPC) MM-
.
2010. ,
36 (30 ),
72 . (IMF, Debt Relief Unter the Heavily
Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, July 30, 2010).
82

, . MM

. HIPC
MM-
1996. .
, ,

, ,
.

,
.
.

. ,
.

(MRC) , HIPC 2005.
(MDRI). MDRI
100 - MM,
(AfDF) - HIPC . -
(IaDB) 2007.
HIPC , HIPC .
,

.
, , .
HIPC ,
:
1) IDA ,
;
ECF MM-,
, .
2) ,
.
3) ,
MM .
4) (PRSP),
.

, MM-
,
. ,
.
83
:
1)
MM - ,
2) ,
3) .
, .
, ,
.
,
.
HIPC ,
,
, HIPC ,
.
4.7. (MDRI)
(MDRI)
100%
. , -8 ( 2005. )
MM, ,

HIPC . (IMF, The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, March 9,
2010).

, . 2015. .
HIPC ,
per capita 380 ,
MDRI . ,
MM- :
(1) ,
(2)
(3) .
per capita 380 ,
HIPC , ,
MM
MDRI-I. HIPC 380
MDRI , MM
MDRI-II.
MDRI
,
, .
84
. 18: MDRI

MDRI-I
(
380 )

MDRI-II (

380 )
- MDRI, 19. 2010.
HIPCs: 28
, ,
, ,
completion
, , ,
,
point HIPC
, , ,
,
, , ,
, , ,
, So Tom and Prncipe, , ,
, ,
,
:
2.185 . (3.168 .*)
-HIPC (2)
,

380$
-
:
126 . (182 .*)
: 2.311 (3.350 *)
HIPC
(Enhanced HIPC Initiative)
HIPCs: 7
,
,
decision point
, -,
HIPC
1/
5
, ,
HIPC

. .

2004.
1/
MDRI MM
-HIPC MM .
* /
: IMF, The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, March 9, 2010.

2009. HIPC MDRI

117,13 . , HIPC 71,95 . ,
MDRI 45,18 . . ( : IDA, IMF, Heavily
Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) Status
of Implementation, 2009, .44)
MDRI MM- 2004.
,
. 2005. .
85
MM- MDRI 15. 2009.

4 . ,
MM- 530 (867 ),
.
-8

. , -8
100 MM-
PRGF-ESF MDRI.
4.8. (Emergency assistance)

(emergency assistance)

.
, -.
1962. .
1960-
.
, 1962. ,

. , 1963. ,
. 17 , 4
: 1963. 1973. ;
1966. 1974. . (James M. Boughton,
2001, . 744-755).
1995. ,
,
.
1995.
(post-conflict situations).
,

.
.
.

.
25% -, ,
, 50% .
86
4.9. (PCDR Trust)

, 2010. ,
(Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief -PCDR),

,
2010. .

, ,
PRGT.
(IMF, The IMFs Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief Trust, July 21, 2010).
PCDR ,
PRGT,

,
. ,
IDA .
PCDR
:
1) ,
2) ,
, , : ,

100 -.
-,
.
-
,
.
.
PCDR. , PCDR 280
( 422 ) -,
, .
21. 2010. PCDR
178 ( 268 ),
-.
4.10.
(compensatory financing facility
CFF) -, 1963. ,
.
,
87
.

-. ,
,
, (
).
,
. (Agnus Hooke, 1981, 48-49).
, /
, . 1981.
. 1982/1983
CFF, 47 5,4
. ,
.

(compensatory and contingency financing facility CCFF) 1988.
CFF 12 , 29 . CCFF
, :
, ,
.
.
(buffer stock financing facilityBSFF) 1969. .

(, ). ,
.
- 24. 2010. IMF
Overhauls Nonconcessional Lending Facilities and Conditionality, PIN, No. 09/40
(CFF), .
(il facility) 1970- ,
,
- . . 1974. ,
, .
25% ,
, , . ,
50% ( 20 ).
, 1982.
- , ,
.
25% .
-, ,
(),
.

.
1991. .
88
II

1. -
-
:
-?
-
. ,
.
, : ,
-, ,
- 1990. ; , a
, ,
- 1983. ( ). (James
Raymand Vreeland, 2003, . 321 343).
:
-? , -,

, , (, 1997, V
3, -).
, -,
, -. ,
-
, ,
(Bird Graham, 1996, . 1755).
- -,
.
,
...
() -. (Robert Putnam, 1988,
. 457).
1952. 1998. ,
168 , 4 :
- ,
- -.
89
. 1: -
, 1952-1998.

/
-
689
942
487
1144
:
: , World Development Report 2000.
, (487)
-
, (942)
-. -
.
1990.-
-,
. , 1952. 1990.
, 47,9%,
89,7% 1985. 9,9% 1990.
( 1979. 23,3%). 1990.
,
(112,5% 1990. ).

( 1989. 3% 1984.
).
. , , ,
, ,
.

.
,
,
,
, -.
- 1990. , 18-
150 . 1%
22%, 17% 20,5%
10% 15%. 2,5%
, , 0,37% 1990. .
90
(
), ,
,
.
-
, ,
. , -
1990/1991 .
1990.
0,91% 1991. ,
.
. , .
,
. , ,
, , . 70%
. -,
(.
23% - ),
( 1990. 2%).
. 1: , 1976-1993.

(- % )
- (Signed IMF agreements)

- (No IMF program)
: James Raymand Vreeland, 2003, . 331
91
, 1992. , ,
. 1990.
, . ,
1991. 14% 1993. 1994. . ,
, 1% 1990. 8% 1992. .
,
.
, ,
-, .
, -,
-
.
,
. a
-, -,
.
1983. ,
-.
.2: , 1970-1988.
( )

------

: James Raymand Vreeland, 2003, . 331
92
, ,
. , 1974.
- , 1978.
1979. 1980. . , ,
-,
,
1983. . ,
. 1983. 1985.
, 1986.
, ,
-.
, , 70-
-
,
. ,
, - (Oil Fund
Facility), 6,3 (IMF Survey, 1974).

,
, ,
. 1975.
10,5 . -

.
.
,
. .
1979. ,
, .
Julius Nyerere
, ,
(Andrew Kiondo, 1992, . 24),
. 1980.
- de La Rosiere,
179,6 ,
327% .
, ,
. ,
: 50%
60%, , ,
, ,
.
1982. . 1983.
, ,
, .
93
- 11,8% 8,9%
, . 1964. .
- 32 1969.
21 1974. , 1975. .
1970. .
,
. -
.
1980- - ,
1982. . 1982. ,
.
- ,
. ,
- .
,
, , 1982-1985.
. 1982.
-.
, 12%, 20%, ,
, ,

26%. .
.
1985. , 18-
-, 64,2 (60% ).
-
, -
, .
,
. , ,
... ,
. (Fisher Stanley, 1999).
-,
. 1983.
-, -, .
, ,
1986. . ,

.
, -,
.
, ,
, .
,
-. ,
. ,
94

, .
, ,
- ,

.

-. , ,
-, .

( , ,
, ).
(IMF, 2001, . 41).
, , ,
, .
2.

60
- .
,

.
, /
. , ,
. (Bruno Sergi,
).
, , ,
, ,
, ,
( Charlie Kindleberger
).

.
, . .

(
) (Lipworth Nystendt,
2001). , -, ,
. ,
95
( ,
(venture capital)), ,
.
. ( , 2010, . 624).
.
,
.
,
, ,
,
.

.
:
- , 1983.
- , 1992.
- 1994.
- , 1972.
- 1998.
- 1999.
- 2001 .
- - 2007. , .
, 2007. , ,
( lender of last resort).
.
,
.
,
,
. (:
(Basel Capital Accord)

. ,
, ).
:
,
.
, ,
,
.
.
(self-fulfiling)
,
.
2007. ,

96
, ,
,
. 2007. ,

,
.

-, ,
.

-
.
(lender of last resort).
2007. , ,
. , -20
2009.
- .
20 ( 2008
), ... ,
,
...
-. (G20 Communique, 2009).
,
. ,
, .
, ,
: ?
2.1. -
60- ,
. 1963.
,
, .
.
40 , GDP per kapita 10.
.
. , ,
1960- ,
1970- 1980- , ,
.
IX ,

.
97

. , ,
, ,
, .
,
. : ,
,
.
(Paul A. Samuelson,
William D. Nordhaus, 2009, . 588): ,
.

. 20
. ,
, .
.
,
,
.
. 2:

,
1965-1998
1990.

5,7
35

2,7
19

1,3
17

-0,3
9
: World Bank, The East Asia Miracle: Economic Growth and Government
Policies, 1993; World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2000.

, ,

. ,
, 1980-
.
,

,
.
Jeffrey Sachs Andrew
Waerner (Jeffrey Sachs Andrew Waerner, 1995, . 42-43).
,
98
( )
.
1990. , ,
,
. , 1990- ,
,
. ,
.

,
.
,
, ,
. (Charles Kindleberger,
Robert Aliber, 2006, . 246).
. 3: -
- ,
/
1990
3,79
11,62 3,90
7,24
9,28
9,01
1991
9,21
8,11 5,69
6,95
9,71
9,55
1992 14,19
8,08 6,09
6,46
5,77
8,89
1993 14,00
8,25 6,04
6,82
6,33
9,90
1994 13,10
8,99 6,01
7,54
8,77
9,21
1995 10,90
9,24 2,29
8,22
8,93
9,83
1996 10,00
5,90 4,19
7,82
7,19
10,00
1997
9,30
4,70
5,77
7,32
-1,37 5,06
1998
7,80
-10,51 -6,03
-13,13
-5,71
-7,36
1999
7,60
4,45 2,56
0,79
10,73
6,14
2000
8,34
4,75 7,95
5,35
8,80
8,68
2001
8,29
2,17 0,50
3,64
3,97
0,52
2002
9,10
5,32 1,84
4,50
7,15
5,39
2003 10,10
7,14 3,01
4,78
2,80
5,79
2004 10,09
6,34 8,47
5,03
4,62
6,78
2005 11,29
4,60 7,08
5,69
3,96
5,33
2006 12,69
5,15 7,02
5,50
5,18
5,85
2007 14,19
4,93 6,38
6,35
5,11
6,48
2008
9,59
2,46 2,16
6,01
2,30
4,71
2009*
9,10
-2,25 -2,76
4,55
0,29
-1,71
2010* 10,46
7,52 6,04
6,00
6,06
6,72
*
6,87
7,86
7,56
6,73
7,59
6,38
5,54
5,48
3,47
5,97
5,79
-1,65
5,26
3,67
6,19
4,70
5,44
5,98
0,73
-1,91
9,32
: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.
99
, 2. 1997. ,
.
, . , 1996.
,
, . 1997.
, 2.
15%.
. 1994.
, ,
, .

( ),
.
, 1997.
.
,
,
.
, ,

, , . ,
,
,
.
, , -
.
, :
- -
,
-
- .
. 4: a, e e e
- ( )
-
3,9
1,9
2,2
12,1
20,1
10,1
4,5
3,5
22,0
40,1
*
21,0
10,0
4,0
22,0
57,0
35,0
16,4
9,7
56,1
117,2
5 $
* : John Burton, South Korea gets $55 billion rescue Package, Financial
Times, December 4, 1997.
: (BIS), Annual Report, . 68, . 134.
100
,
1994/1995 50
. ,

.
-,
, ( 6% 1996. ),
1998. . (Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, 2009, . 644).
- 1998.
- , (1999.
) .
, ,
, ,
.
. 85%
1998. ,
. ,
, .
, ,
. ,
,
.
,
, .
, .
,
, , ,
,
. (Joosten Wink, 2004, . 26-28).
,
1997. .
, 280%.
, .
.
,

. (
, 2010, . 602).

, . .
-

, -,
. ( , 2008, . 415).
, , 1998.
,
,
101
.
,
,

( ). ,
, .
,
,
.
, V.
1998. ,
1998. . 1999. ,
.
, ,
. ,
.
,
. -
,
, ,
, .
2.2.

,
, ,
. 1989.
.
,
.

. ,
, (
, ) ,
. (Joseph Stiglitz, 2002,
.155).
.
. ,
.
,
. (Joseph Stiglitz, 2002, .165).
102
:
.
,
(Joseph Stiglitz, 2002, .182).
,
Olivier Blanchard (Olivier Blanchard, 1997, . 5)
, ,
.
.

.
.
.
. ,
,
.
90- , ,
, , .
1940- ,
,
. (
) ,
.
. 5: , 1991-2003.
-
: ,
1991 2003.
1991. 1992. 1993. 1994. 1995. 1996. 1997. 1998. 1999. 20002003.

- 9,0 - 14,5
- 8,7 - 12,7
- 4,1
- 3,4
1,4
- 5,3
6,3
6,8
- 7,0
2,0
4,3
5,2
6,8
6,0
6,8
4,8
4,1
2,6

92,7 1.734, 878,8 307,5 198,0

47,7
14,8
27,7
85,7
18,0
7
70,3
43,0
35,3
32,2
27,9
19,9
14,9
11,8
7,3
4,6
: IMF, World Economic Outlook,
1990-,

. ,
, 90-
.
103
1997.
-,
.
, .
,
, 1998.
,
. ,
.

-,
17 , . Stiglitz
-: .
1998.
,
, .
1998. ,
.
. ,
, .
, (
). ,
. , ,
.

.
. 1999.
,
. (Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, 2009, . 644-646).
. 3:

( )
: IMF Working Paper: Russias Output Collapse and Recovery: Evidence from
the Post-Soviet Transition, WP/10/89, April 2010, . 3.
104
( 1979. )
. 1997.
1998. , .
, 1998. ,
, 17.
1998. , 6 1 26 1 .
13,5
. (
) .
. , 1998.
. ( , 2010,
. 603). .
,
.
2.3.
,
1991. .
, ,
, , .
,
1991. ,
() ,
(10.000 =1 ). 1992.
,
.

,
.

, . ,
, , ,
.
(Convertibility Plan)
. 800%
1990. 5% 1995. .
, ,
30% 1990. 1995. ,
. (Paul Krugman,
Maurice Obstfeld, 2009, . 635). 400
1991. 11,1 1995. ,
4,5% .
105
1995. 1997. ,

. , 3,5%
, 1996. 2001. . , 2001.
,
( ) 20%, 50%,
. 20 2001.
. ,
.
. ( , 2010, .
606-607).
2001. ,
, .
2002. , .

.
. ,
, ,
.
2002. 4
1 , 300%. (Thomas Pugel, 2009, . 526).
.
1990- ,
SBA (1991, 1996, 2000. )
- EFF (1992,1998. ),
-, ,
, , -.
. 6: - , 1991-2001.
SBA
EFF
SBA
EFF
SBA

-SRF
29.7.1991.
31.3.1992.
12.4.1996.
4.02.1998.
10.3.2000.
12.1.2001.
30.3.1992.
30.3.1996.
11.1.1998.
10.3.2000.
23.1.2003.
11.1.2002.
780
4.020
720
2.080
16.937
6.087
70,1
439
361,2
4.020
46,8
613
135,3
0
800
9.756
287,5
5.875
: Independent Evaluation Office (IEO), The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001,

2004, . 77
106

,
2002. .
,
,
, (
).
1995.
,
,
,
. , 2001.
, . (Michael Mussa, 2002, .
20).
, 80%
,
.
, ,
.
, , . ,
,
, .
-
18% 21%, .
,
, . , 1995.
, ,
-.
- (Independent Evaluation
Office, 2004) The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001,
:
, .
,
, .

, :
1)
1994-2001 .
,

.
2) -
, .
, .
107
,

( 1990-
, ).
. 4:
(-%)
(- %)
: Independent Evaluation Office - IMF, The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001,

2004, . 31.
-
.
-
() , . .
( ),
,
.
.
,
.
( , 2008, . 410).
108
2.4.
1980-
, , ,
100% 3.000%.
, , .
.

,
.
1994. (),
(Real Plan), .
1995. ,
,
.
, .
. 5: , 1990-2000.
-
: Economist Inteligence Unit, The Economist, 10 April 2006.

,
.
109

. ,
, .
2.669% 1994.
10% 1997. , . (Paul
Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, 2009, . 636). ,
,
,
.

,
. ,
. .
,
.
,
.
1998. ,
, , 70
1998.
1998. .
.
1998. 41,5
. (William Gruben, John Welch, 2001, . 15).

. , . -a
, ,
, ,
8% .

,
1999. , 5,6% (Maria de Lourdes
Rollemberg Mollo, Alfredo Saad-Filho, 2006, . 106). 40%
.
, .
. ,
.
1999. , -,

.
, ,
, .
, .
2002. , ,
,
110
.
.

- , , , .
,
.

,
. ,

, .
,
( ),
.
.
. 6: ,
, ,
- , = 100
: William Gruben, John Welch, 2001, . 17, : Mexico: Instituto Nacional

de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica; Brazil: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e
Estatisica; Tailand: Bank of Thailand; South Korea: Korea National Statistical Office;
Indonesia: Biro Pusat Statistica.
111
2.5. -

, .
20. ,

. ,
. , ,
,
;
.

1918-1919, .

,
.
" ".
, .
,
.
, ,

.
, . , 1920.
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
, (,
1933). - 1922.
,
, 1930.
(BIS). 1933.
. ,
.
,
, .
, , ad hoc
. ,
.
.
, (
)
112
. 1942. , John Maynard Keynes

Harry Dexter White

. 1943.
. ,
" "
. .
45 ,
.
-,
, . --

.
,
, .
,
.
,
. , 1948.
,
1944. .
1960.
1971. ,
.
, . -10
,
, . -10
,
, , 20
-.

,
,
. ,
. , ,
, " "
,
. - 1978. .

1973-74 . -
,
-.
,
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, (Oil Facility)
113

, .
- .

1978. ,
. 1982. 1985. ,
, "
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.
,
,
. , -5 (, , ,
) - -10,
1985. 1987.
,
.
1998.
,
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,
, .
-7 (-5 ),
, - (
), 2005.
(MDRI) (PSI).
2007. . - 2007.
1929.
. , ,
,
; ,
, . (Paul Krugman,
2010, . 4). . ,

(subprime mortgages),

, ,
.
, 2003-2006, subprime
.
2,8 ,
1,3 . ,
. ( , 2008, . 1).

, ,
(
114
, , ,
, hed , ).
,
. ,
. 2007. 1,3
. U.S. Foreclosure
Market Report 2008. , 2,3
, 8% 2007. 225%
2006. . (David C. Swedelson, http://www.realtytrac.com/foreclosure/foreclosurerates.html, 26.01.2009).
, ,
.
,
,
. ,
, ,
.
1997. 2006. 124%,
, .
2008.
.
2008. .

. Lehman Brothers
,
.
Merryl Lynch Bank of America.
, .
( )
( ) .
(Nourel Roubini,
2008).
,
700 ,
.
250
,
.
, 2008. :

,
, ,
,
. (IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2008).
115
, -, 2008. ,
(OECD,
Economic Outlook, November 2008).

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.
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.
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.
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, .

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1944. .
21. , 1944.
- ,
20. .
2008.
. (James Boughton, A New Bretton Woods?, 2009).
-
.
. , ,

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.
116
,
, .
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.
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. ,
.
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-
.

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.
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.
,
: Peter Kenen, 2001.
Nouriel Roubini, Brad Setser, 2004.
( , ,
) :
1)

(exit ).
2)
.
,
.
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.
4) , ,
,
. ,
, .
117
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, ,
,
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(30 ).
(16 ) 100 (80 )
, 22,4 .
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-
, ,

: , ,
; .
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110 .
2,6% 2014. (
3%).

, 40
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. 56 , , ... .
, 2010.
, .
, ,

.
.

750 .
,
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250 ,

. ,
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, , .
118
, , 125,
,
(no bail-out ),
.

.
y

, . ,
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, , .
. 7: , , ,
2006-2009.
: 06.05.2010. .

, .
119
2010. 26 ,
, . , 1500
,
. 85.000 30
, ,
. 2011. .
(
),

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.
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.
- 2010. SBA
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, 3.200
-. 4,8 (5,5
),
20 . SBA,
, 110 ( 145 )
SBA . : ()
. (IMF, Press Release 10-187, IMF Executive Board Approves 30
Billion Stand-By Arrangement for Greece, 2010).
:
.
,
: 1997/1998 :
, , ; 2001. ; 2009.
: Je, , , , , -
. ,

, 72 .
-
. (IMF, Annual Report 2009, 24).
, ,
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, ,
,

.

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, , .
,
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, ,
.
, , . (IMF,
Annual Report 2009, 24).
,
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125 118 79
78 . 16 ,

60 , : , ,
.
,
750 ,
.
, ,
:
, ,
,
.
,
.
2.5.2. :
,
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,
, .
1980- 2006.
, , .
121
- 2009. ,
, 100 ,
13% 1/3 . (
, , 16. 2010).
. 8: -27
: , , 2009.
2008.
, .
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.
.
2010. . -, .
.

.
,
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. 32% ,
.
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, 20% .
,
.
. ,
, .

20 .
, , .
. ,
,
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- 2010.
. ,
(EFF)
. 85 , : 45
(
, ), 17,5 -
, - 22,5
(19,5 ), 2.322 .
-,
2014. . (IMF, Press Release No. 10/496, IMF
Executive Board Approves 22.5 Billion Extended Arrangement for Ireland, December
16, 2010).
" "
, , .

, . (2008-2010)
, 3% 2008. , 8% 2009, 10% 2010. .
,
. 2007.
, 50%,
.
.

,
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.
123
2.5.3.
1990- .

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.
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. ( , 2008, 13).
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.
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) Bear Stearns JP Morgan
Chase
) .
, 2008. ,
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Brothers
- Merrill Lynch Bank of America,
) .
,
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.
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.
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124
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).
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).
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. ( , , South-East Europe Review, 3/2009,

. 315-328).
,
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.

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, ,
.
,
, ,
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.
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,
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.

, ,
. ,
, . (Martin Hutsebaut, European Trade Union
Institut).
125

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.
( 7.000 ), .

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. 4).
126
, ...
,
.
(Martin Feldstein, 1999, . 369).
2007.
( ),
j . (
, )
,
.

,
(Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, 2009, . 652):
- . -

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127
3.
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out-.
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).
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.
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. (Krastyo
Petkov, ).
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, a o

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. ( -
: , 2006, . 31-126).

-. :
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;
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.

.
.

.

. (quantitative
performance criteria QPCs), ,
: , ,
. , ,
,
.
(structural performance criteria) :
,
, .
(: http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/condition.htm, 12.01.2010).

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, , ,
.
, ,
129
. ,
.
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.
.
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.
(
,
http://www.politika.rs/rubrike/Ekonomija/MMF-ce-traziti-obuzdavanje-potrosnje.sr.html,
3.03.2011).
- .
, .
, , .
, ,
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. -

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. ( , , 2.09.2010).
-? :
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, 114 .
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130
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, (Edward Prescott),
,
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.

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. (Joseph Stiglitz,
2002, . 32).
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131
Peter Bakvis, ,
:
,

. 1944.
,
-. (Peter Bakvis, ITUC,
Washington).
-
, , Amartya Sen:
... -, ,
.
132

-,

133
1.

-, 2010.
5,0%, 2011. 4,4%.
, 2009.
0,6%, . (IMF, World
Economic Outlook (WEO), January 2011).
. ,
, ,
.
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- (Emeging economies) , , ,
, , , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , , , ,
, , .
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, , , , , , , ,
, , , , - ,

- (World)
- (Emerging Asia)
: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2010.
134
, ,
.
, , 210
, 30 2007. .
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.
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, o.
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2008.
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.
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.
*** : U.K. Brent, West Texas.
61,78 2009. ,
76,20 2010. 78,75 2011. .
: IMF, October 2010, . 2
135
2,7% 2010. 2,2 %

2011. . :
( ), .

, , ,
.
,
. 2009. ,
.
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.
. 2,8% 2010. , 2011.
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. (IMF, WEO, January 2011 / updata).
,
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.
. , .
2010.
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. ,
. .
. 2:
( , )
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- (Advanced economies)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ - (of which:machinery and equipment)
136
Ae e 9,5%.
, , .
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.
, . 2010.
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. , 10%,
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.

2010. .
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,
.
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- (Emeging economies) - , ,
, , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , , ,
, , , , , .
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, , , , , , ,
, , , , , -
,
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137
.
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.
.
,
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2010. 3,3%,
. (Helge Berger, Martin Schindler, 2010, . 50-51).
: : ,
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, , , , , , ,
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1,7% 2010.
1,6% 2011. .
. 2: , 2007-2011.
( )

2007.
2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
*
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1,4
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: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
,
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,
, .
, , ,
, .
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.
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. :
,
;
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.
138
. 3: , 2007-2011.
( )

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2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
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,
, , ,
2010. , 2008. .
. 4: , III a 2008 I a 2010. (
: , ; , )
( , III a 2008 = 100)
: Eurostat; Haver Analytics; -
139
, 2008. ,
Lehman Brothers, (
2008. 2009. ),
2009. .
, , .
2010. , 20 30%
. ,
, .
,
.
. 5: , III a 2008 I a 2010.
( : , ; )
( , III a 2008. = 100)
: Eurostat; Haver Analytics; -

, ,
. , 2010.
( , , ) ,
() ,
.
,
:
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2.
3. ,
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Ruben Atoyan, 2010, . 4).
140
. 6: ,
, 2003-2008.*
( )

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.
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141
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.
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.
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, 1995 2007.
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6
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3
2
ASEAN-5

2003. , . 2007.
.

.
.
142

.
2003. , .
. 8: ,
2003-2008.
( )

: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook Europe, Building Confidence, October 2010.

8%
- 6,5% ( 2003-2008).

(), , ,
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6 % ). ,
,
.
143
?
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(. ).
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(Weighted average without Russia)
(Weighted average)
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.
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* SBA ( SBA 2008.
SBA - 2010. )
: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook - Europe, Building Confidence, .61

,
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-, 1,5%
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,
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(Ekonom:east, . 543, 14. 2010, . 19).
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146
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1990, 1991, 1993 1994. )?

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.

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1946.
:

. (IMF, Report of the Executive Directors and Summary Proceedings, 1946).
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..
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. ( : Louis DicksMireaux, Mauro Mecagni, Susan Schadler, 2000, . 495526; Adam Przeworski,
James Raymond Vreeland, 2000; Michael M. Hutchison, Ilan Noy, 2003, . 91
1014; Axel Dreher, 2006, . 76988).
149

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-
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150
. 5:
- -

(
- ( )
)
(X)
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2010
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250
151
,
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. 6:
-
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2
.
(x-x)
(y-y) (y-y)
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(dx) (dy)
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0
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0
66
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X = x/n = 850/6 = 141,7 ( -

-)
Y = y/n = 108,7/6 = 18,2 ( )
,
(r).
r=
( x x) ( y
= y )
( x x )
= y)
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= 377,92
15.521 66 = 0,37
K , r
= - 0,37
- ,
.
,

.
. 7:
-
2
2
x
y
xy
y- yc
- (x)
(y)
(yc)
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200,0
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3200
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5
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26406,3 361,00
15625,0 412,09
3906,3 542,89
135.938 2035,11
6
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7
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8
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56,63
152
yc=a+bx
(1) y= na+bx
2
(2) xy= ax +bx
(1) 108,7 = 6a + 850b
(2) 15021,25= 850a + 135.938b ( -141,67)
(1) 108,7 = 6a + 850b
(2) -106,0= -6 - 959,5 b
2,7 = - 109,5
= -0,0243 (1)
108,7=6 20,95
= 21,566
: yc = -0,0243 x + 21,566

-,
. yc 6 .

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

153

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-, 01.
1984. 31. 2010. .
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(1996-1997), SBA (1997-1998), EFF (1998-2001), SBA (2002-2004), SBA (2004-2007).
16
-, 1991. 2007. .
- - 1992. ,
-: SBA (1994-1996), EFF (1997-2000), SBA (2001-2002), SBA
(2003-2004), SBA (2004-2006). 13
-, 1994. 2006. .
- - 1982. ,
: SBA (1984-1985), SBA (1988-1989), SBA (1990-1991), EFF
(1991-1993), SBA (1993-1994), SBA (1996-1998) SBA (2008-2010).
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: SBA (1990-1991), EFF (1991-1993), SBA (1993-1994), SBA (1994-1996),
FCL (2009-2010), FCL (2010-2011).
- - 1972. ,
: SBA (1991-1992), SBA (1992-1993), SBA (1994-1997), SBA
(1997-1998), SBA (1999-2001), SBA (2001-2003), SBA (2004-2006), SBA (20092011). 13
-, 2 -.
- - 1992. ,
: SBA (2001-2002), EFF (2002-2006), SBA (2009-2011).
155
- - 1947. ,
: SBA (1984-1985), SBA (1994-1996), SBA (1999-2002) SRF
(2000-2001), SBA (2002-2005), SBA (2005-2008).
:
( 2008. ).
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,
. ,
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, 16
-, 9- - ,
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9 16 -,
,
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13 - 8,7%
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7,1% 2008. .

-,
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-, 2001. 2008. .
,
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156
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.
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. 8: : , , , ,
,

1992. 2000. 2001.

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**
8,06
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2002.
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2004.
12,00
13,76
6,30
18,97
6,70
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10,25
2005. 2008. 2009. 2010.

10,10 5,70 6.83
8,29
12,70 8,70 9.20 9,50*
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. 13: : , ,

25
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157
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.
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- - 1945. ,
: SBA (1986-1987).
- - 1992. ,
: SBA (1992-1993), SBA (1995-1996), EFF (1996-1999) SRF (19981999), SBA (1999-2000).
- - 1945. ,
: EFF (1981-1984), SBA ( 1991- 1991), SBA ( 19911993).
. 9: ,

1992. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2008. 2009. 2010.*
5,80
7,10 11,26 11,66 12,30 11,46
9,82
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. 14: ,

14
12
10
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0
158
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( ).
. 10:
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(X)
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2010
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746.605
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2005
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: , , 2002; 2003; 2006; 2010.
,
-, . 2001. 2006. ,
. ,
2007. 2008. -,
2009. .
159
. 15: ,
- , 2001-2006.
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
50
100
150
200
250

, :
,

- .

, .
,
. ,
,
(r).
. 11:
-
2
2

(x-x)
(y-y)
(x-x) (y-y)
(x-x)
(y-y)
2
2
(dx)
(dy)
(dx) (dy)
(dx)
(dy)
-
( 000)
( .)
(x)
(y)
1
2
3
4
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1.736
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58
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0
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0
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:
160
x = x/n = 850/6 = 141,67 ( -

-)
y = y/n = 5204/6 = 867,33 (
2001-2006)
r=
( x x) ( y
= y )
( x x)
= y)
(y
= 2.859
15.521 19.865 = 0,16
r = 0,16
r,

.

.
,
,
.
. 12:
-
2
2
x
y
xy
- (x)
(yc)
(y)
1
2
3
4
5
6
100,0
768,6
76860 10000,0 590745,96
859,65
168540 40000,0 710143,29
200,0
842,7
878,03
189460 40000,0 897377,29
200,0
947,3
878,03
162,5
843,7 137101,25 26406,3 711829,69
871,14
111050 15625,0 789254,56
125,0
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864,25
62,5
913,3 57081,25 3906,3 834116,89
852,76
850,0
5204,0 740092,5 135.938 4533467,68
5203,85
:
(y- yc) 2
y- yc
7
8
-91,05 8290,10
-35,33 1248,21
69,27 4798,33
-27,44
752,82
24,16
583,46
60,54 3665,39
0,15 19338,32
: yc=a+bx
b
:
(1) y= na+bx
2
(2) xy= ax +bx
:
= 841,27
= 0,1838
yc = 0,1838x + 841,27
yc 6 ,
.

-, .
161

-.
. 16:
( - )
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
, ,
- ,

. , o ,
(r = 0,16).
,
6 (2001-2006).
. 17: -
( )
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
162
, ,
() ()
- , . 2003. .
() ,
, ()
, () , .
2004. (2004-2009).
. 18: ,

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
y = 1,0276x + 687,41
300
R = 0,7025
200
100
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
,
,
, :
yc = 1,0276x + 687,41
r = 0,838
. 13:
-
-
-
(YC)
(X)
(Y)
1
2
3
790,28
100,0
768,6
892,89
200,0
842,7
892,89
200,0
947,3
854,41
162,5
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751,80
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:
163
(r = 0,838),
,
, ,
- .
, (
) -
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- .
3.3. -

,
. ()
e .
,
.
. (Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, 2009,
. 308).
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. (balance of payments)
.
.
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.
. (Graham Bird,
2001, . 184965; Nadeem Ul Haque, Mohsin S. Khan, 1998, . 195-234).
-
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-,
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164
. 14:
-
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2
. (x-x)
(x-x)
(y-y)
(y-y)
(x-x) (y-y)
2
2
- (x) (dx)
(dy)
(dx) (dy)
(dx)
(dy)
.
(y)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010
299,9
83
6.856
-3.743
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237.169
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1.021,1
804 646.416
375
140.625
301.500
2009
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2008
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47.132
-8.646 -5.390 29.052.100
1.170.169
2007
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47.132
-6.287 -3.031 9.186.961
658.030,1
-155
23.901
270
72.900
-41.742
2006
62,5
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8.482
-97.810,2
2005
125,0
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-55
2.981
385
148.225
-21.021
2004
162,5
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-17
292
-31.395,6
2003
200,0
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-17
292
-34.353,9
2002
200,0
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2001
100,0
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-117
13.712
-347.904
2.171,0
0 797.199
-32.560
0 56.199.642
1.515.149
: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010. .
,
( -, 2001. 2006.
2009. 2010. 2007. 2008. ).

-, .
. 19: ,
- -

0
-1000 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
-6000
-7000
-8000
-9000
-10000
165
x = x/n = 2171/10 = 217,1 ( -

-)
y = y/n = -32.560/10 = -3.256 (
2001. 2010. )
(r) :
r=
( x x) ( y
= y )
( x x)
= y)
(y
= 1.515.149
797.199 56.199.642 = 0,2263
r = 0,2263

.

.
. 15:
- -
2
2
x
y
xy
- (x)
(yc)
(y)
1
2
3
4
5
6
89.940,0 14.010.049,0
299,9
-3.743,0 -1.122.525,7
-3.098,6
8.300.161,0
1021,1
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-1.727,9
0,0
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0
0,0 74.753.316,0
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62,5
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10.000,0
81.225,0
100,0
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-3.478,5
2171,0
-32.560,0 -5.553.627,3
1.268.523 162.215.002,0
-32.559,8
:
:
yc = 1,9006 x 3668,6
yc ,
.

-, .
,
, 10 ( 2001. 2010. ),
- () .
166
. 20: -
( )
2000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
-10000
, -
, . -
, ,
.
,
.
. 16: - ,
2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007.

66,65 70,72 79,93 74,79 70,70 69,17 66,70 65,19
16,45 17,71 18,94 19,25 18,54 17,63 16,48 19,82
71,44 75,84 80,12 81,48 81,66 79,35 76,01 72,91

59,86 47,61 40,31 30,36 22,32 14,24 9,05 8,51
241,65 114,49 81,21 77,28 65,20 56,29 43,03 35,24

* -
: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010
2008. 2009.* 2010.*

64,06 68,90 66,80
16,80 18,60 19,15
72,58 74,21 71,84
7,85 10,88 11,08
33,42 35,58 40,50
2000. 2010. ,
- 2001.
2006. , 2009. 2011. ,
167
. . , ,
,
16,5% 19,8% .
, ,
1987. -.
, -
, 241,65% .
-,
. , , , .
, , ,
, .
. 21: (% )
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

,
,
.
168
3.4. -
, :
.

,
, Milton Friedman,
: . (Milton
Friedman, 1968, . 39).
.
, .
:
, ( ),
.
, ,
.
,
, .
: , ,
(
) . ( , 2010. . 59).

( ).
.

. (
2010, . 186).
, - (Average CPI Inflation),
.
, -, 2000. 2010. .
-
91,8%, ,
2009. 2010. .
2009. 8,11%, 2010. 4,64%.
. ,
-
,
.
. ... , ,
, .
,
. (Frederic Mishkin, 2006,
. 10-11).
169
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212
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: IMF, International Financial Statistics, June 1990.
231
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241
. 3: -
- 31. 2010.
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( ( );
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2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
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485,13
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,
, .
VII. HIPC :
VIII (MDRI):
IX.
(PCDR):
: -
242
. 4: -, 2001-2011.
SBA
16.01.2009. 15.04.2011.
2.619.120
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14.05.2002. 28.02.2006.
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11.06.2001. 31.05.2002.
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: -
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1.500.000
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500.000
200.000
0
SBA (2009-2011)
EFF (2002-2005)
SBA (2001-2002)
: -
-,
2006. ,
,
2007. . (postprogram monitoring)
- ,
.
- ,
( 2006. ) IV
- 18. 2006. (Press Release No.
06/120).

243
,
.
,
. ,
, ,
, .
IV
28. 2008. (PIN No. 08/11)
2007.
. ,
,
,
.
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2009. .
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20082009. 6 7%.
, ,
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.
, ,
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. ,

-,
, 2008. 2010 ,
2011. .
244
. 3: , 2008- 2011.

:
- (CPI - ) (CPI consumer price index)
- (Lower bound)
- (Upper Bound)
- (Inflation target)
: IMF, Republic of Serbia, Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement,
December 8, 2010.
245
2.
-
5: -

. 1
(Securities)
31.12.2010. 1.787.573.250 1.169.250
31.12.2009. 1.487.675.750 1.169.250
31.12.2008.
466.530.750 1.169.250
31.12.2007.
466.530.750 1.169.250
31.12.2006.
629.030.750 1.169.250
31.12.2005. 1.072.780.750 1.169.250
31.12.2004. 1.087.493.250 1.169.250
31.12.2003.
976.533.504 1.169.250
31.12.2002.
883.455.750 1.169.250
31.12.2001.
683.455.750 1.169.250
31.12.2000.
583.455.750 1.169.250
31.12.1999.
0
0
31.12.1998.
0
0
31.12.1997.
0
0
31.12.1996.
0
0
31.12.1995.
0
0
31.12.1994.
0
0
31.12.1993.
0
0
31.12.1992.
0
0
CVA
. 2
13.722
13.722
13.722
13.722
13.722
13.722
13.722
13.721
13.721
13.722
13.722
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
- 31.12.2010.
CVA

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
106.922.246
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.788.756.222
1.488.858.722
467.713.722
467.713.722
630.213.722
1.073.963.722
1.088.676.222
1.084.638.721
884.638.721
684.638.722
584.638.722
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
: - (www.imf.org)
246
. 6: -
- 31. 12. 2010.

31.12.2010.
0
31.12.2009.
0
31.12.2008.
0
31.12.2007.
0
31.12.2006.
0
31.12.2005.
0
31.12.2004.
0
31.12.2003.
0
31.12.2002.
0
31.12.2001.
0
31.12.2000.
0
31.12.1999.
279,145,817
31.12.1998.
279,556,031
31.12.1997.
279,556,031
31.12.1996.
279,556,031
31.12.1995.
280,322,700
31.12.1994.
280,323,247
31.12.1993.
280,323,247
31.12.1992.
280,323,247
: - (www.imf.org)
,
.
2010. , 11.
2009.
11. 2009. .
. 7: ,
SBA -, 11.03.2009.
1,0000
0,0106
0,0134
0,0093
94,0972
1,0000
1,2647
0,8715
74,4028
0,7907
1,0000
0,6891
107,9718
1,1475
1,4512
1,0000
727,35
919,875
633,88
: , , ,
2010. (IMF Country Report No. 10/308).
247
. 8: -
01. 1992. 31. 2010.
-
( )
2010
2009
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1992

M
M
299.897.500
0
1.021.145.000
0
0
162.500.000
62.500.000
506.250.000
125.000.000
139.712.500
162.500.000
158.462.500
200.000.000
0
200.000.000
0
100.000.000
0
116.925.000
55.645.817
0
410.214
0
0
0
0
0
766.669
0
547
0
0
56.823.247
0

13.839.223
4.263.109
4.283.316
27.177.137
21.695.587
16.051.739
11.319.708
9.096.314
5.858.822
22.013.607
238.749
79.765
17.805
34.910
282.224
85.354
0
: 1992.

(GRA)
.
: - (www.imf.org)
248
. 9: -,
- 01.01.2005. 31.08.2010.
-
06. 2010.
30. 2010.
29. 2010.
27. 2010.
19. 2009.
29. 2009.
20. 2007.
15. 2007.
13. 2006.
08. 2006.
14. 2006.
15. 2006.
30. 2006
14. . 2006.
16. . 2006
20. . 2006
14. 2005.
14. 2005.
11. 2005.
18. 2005.
23. 2005.
15. 2005.
13, 2005.
13. 2005.
17. 2005.
23. 2005.
01. 2005.
15. , 2005.
15. 2005.
19. .2005.
23. .2005.
14. 2005.
15. .2005.
19. .2005.
(GRA)
159.797.500
0
46.700.000
0
46.700.000
0
46.700.000
0
299.897.500
0
701.550.000
0
319.595.000
0
1.021.145.000
0
0
8.333.333
0
154.166.667
0
162.500.000
0
6.250.000
62.500.000
0
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
162.500.000
0
162.500.000
0
8.333.333
0
154.166.667
62.500.000
506.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
14.615.625
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
14.615.625
0
6.250.000
125.000.000
0
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
14.615.625
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
6.250.000
0
14.615.625
125.000.000
139.712.500
PRGT / ESAF / SAF / Trust Fund
0
0 SBAL
0
0 SBAL
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBAL
0
0
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBAL
0
0
0
0 EFF
0
0 EFF
0
0
0
0 SBA
0
0 EFF
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 EFF
0
0 EFF
0
0 EFF
0
0 EFF
0
0
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 EA POST CONF
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 EA POST CONF
0
0 SBA
0
0 EFF
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 EA POST CONF
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 SBA
0
0 EA POST CONF
0
0
249
. 10: -
- 31.12.1992. 31.12.2010.
-
31.12.2010.
31.12.2009.
31.12.2006.
31.12.2005.
31.12.2004.
31.12.2003.
31.12.2002.
31.12.2001.
31.12.2000.
31.12.1999.
31.12.1998.
31.12.1997.
31.12.1996.
31.12.1995.
31.12.1994.
31.12.1993.
31.12.1992.
/
Emergency
1.321.042.500
1.021.145.000
0
18.750.000
158.462.500
316.925.000
316.925.000
216.925.000
116.925.000
55.645.817
56.056.031
56.056.031
56.056.031
56.822.700
56.823.247
56.823.247
56.823.247
EFF
FCL PRGT
1/
0
0
162.500.000
587.500.000
462.500.000
300.000.000
100.000.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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Executive Board Completes Second Review Under Serbias Stand-By Arrangement and
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: IMF, Republic of Serbia, Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement,
December 8, 2010.
262
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.
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.
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Debt Relief)

(SCF)
SBA
.
-
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313
2:
Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
Washington DC
Belgrade, December 25, 2008
Dear Mr. Strauss-Kahn:

The attached Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) outlines the economic
policies that the Government of the Republic of Serbia and the National Bank of Serbia intend to
implement during the remainder of 2008 and in 2009 to safeguard Serbias macroeconomic and
financial stability in an increasingly difficult global and regional economic environment. We will
adopt tight budgets for 2009 and 2010, following three years of procyclical fiscal expansion;
implement structural reforms to boost the economys low capacity to produce, save, and export;
and will continue to conduct our monetary and financial sector policies in a prudent way to
contain inflation and avoid financial instability.
We are in particular determined to constrain recurrent spending growth at all levels of
government, including by freezing pensions in nominal terms from now on throughout 2009, and
by implementing significant nominal cuts in subsidies.
In support of these policies and to signal our commitment to strong macroeconomic policies, we
request that the Fund support our program through a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for a period
of 15 months in the amount of SDR 350.775 million (75 percent of quota). In view of Serbias
comfortable international reserves position and continued access to external financing, we intend
to treat the arrangement as precautionary. Therefore, we do not intend to make the purchases
under the requested arrangement when they become available upon its approval and after
observance of its performance criteria and completion of its reviews.
The implementation of our program will be monitored through quantitative performance criteria,
structural benchmarks, and an inflation consultation clause, as described in the attached MEFP
and Technical Memorandum of Understanding. There will be two reviews of the arrangement by
the Fund, to be completed by no later than mid-June 2009 and mid-December 2009, to assess
progress in implementing the program and reach understandings on any additional measures that
may be needed to achieve its objectives. Moreover, each potential purchase under the
arrangement will be subject to financing assurances reviews.
We believe that the policies set forth in the attached memorandum are adequate to achieve the
objectives of our economic program, but we will take any further measures that may become
appropriate for this purpose. We will consult with the Fund on the adoption of these measures and
in advance of revisions to the policies contained in the MEFP, in accordance with the Funds
policies on such consultations. And we will provide all information requested by the Fund to
assess implementation of the program.
Sincerely,
Mirko Cvetkovi
Prime Minister
Diana Dragutinovi
Minister of Finance
Radovan Jelai
Governor of the National Bank of Serbia
314
3: -
-
402,5
. 09/12
16. 2009.
()
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( 402,5 , 530,3 )
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14. 1992. -; -
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-. -
28. 2006. .
317
4:
, 2009. 2011.
..
1.
2.
3.
1/
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23.385
50.0
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5.
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6.
25. 2010.
159.798
46.7
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25.
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319.595
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7.
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9.
25.
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2010.
(
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319.595
25.
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319.595
2,619.120
2008

,

,
(
)

2009.

(
)

2009.

(
)
68.3
2010.
(
)

2010.

(
)

2010.

(
)
560.0
: IMF, Republika Srbija: Fifth Review Under the Stend/By Arrangement, Request
for Modification of End-Septembar Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances
Review, Septembar 13, 2010.
318
5: : , -
1. - ?
1. -?
2. -
-?
3. (. , ,
,...)
-?
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(
)?
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319
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11. ,
-, ?
1.
2.
3.
4.

:

:
/ :
/:
320
6:
- ( )
1. Allen Mark, IMF, Senior Regional Representative for Central and Eastern
Europe, Warsaw, Poland
2. Andre Niambe Koua, Assistant Attache of Tourism Office (retired), Embassy of
Cote D'Ivoire in Pretoria, REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA / PRETORIA
3. , , ,
4. Bakvis Peter, Washington, DC, USA, Director, ITUC Washington Office,
Washington, DC, USA
5. , ,
,
6. Chilosi Alberto, Professor of Economic Policy, University of Pisa, PISA, ITALY
7. , ,
, ,
8. ,
, o- ,
9. , , ,
10. Hutsebaut Martin, ETUI - expert (retired from the ETUI as secretary to the
directors committee), AALST BELGIUM, BELGIUM
11. Joseph John St. Marie, Assistant Profesor International Dev, University of
Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, Mississippi, United States
12. ,
- -
, ,
13. , , ,
14. ,
, ,
,
15. , , ,
16. , , ,
17. , ,
,
18. , ,
,
19. , , ,
20. Nuti Domenico Mario, Professor, University of Rome La Sapienza, ROME,
ITALY
21. Petkov Krastyo, Professor, UNWE-Sofia, BULGARIA, SOFIA
22. , , ,
,
23. , ,
, ,
24. Savy Nathalie,
Business Development Manager, Globalisation Partners
International, DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
321
25. Sergi S. Bruno, Prof. of international economics, University of Messina,

MESSINA, ITALY
26. , ,
; ,
,
27. Tangian Andranik, Hans Bckler Foundation Dsseldorf and University of
Karlsruhe, DESSELDORF, GERMANY
28. , ,
,
29. Uvali Milica, Full professor in Economics, University of Perugia, Department of
Economics, Finance and Statistics, Faculty of Political Science, PERUGIA,
ITALY
30. Uyttenhove Dirk, Zamenik predsednika Sindikata metala i tekstila, ACV-CSCMETEA, BRISEL, BELGIJA
31. , ,
, ,
32. , : ekonomija.org, ,
33. , ,
,
:
34. Andrea Liese, Prof., University Potsdam, Faculty of Economics&Social Sciences
35. ,
36. Cuc Milan, International Monetary Fund, IMF Resident Representative in Bosnia
and Herzegovina
37. ,, ,
38. Enders Zeno, Rechts-und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultat, Rheinische FridrichWilhems-Univesitat Bonn, BONN, GERMANY
39. , ,
40. Ivanovi ana, Executive Assistant, The World Bank Office, Belgrade
41. Jaeger Albert, International Monetary Fund, Division chief South-Eastern
Europe Division, European Department
42. ., ,
43. , , , ,
44. Lissovolik Bogdan, International Monetary Fund, IMF Resident Representative
in Serbia
45. Lybek Tonny, International Monetary Fund, IMF Resident Representative in
Romania and Bulgaria
46. Popovi Mirjana, Program Assistant, The World Bank Office, Belgrade
47. , -
48. Tieman F. Alexander, International Monetary Fund, IMF Resident
Representative for Macedonia
49. Vetterlein Antje, Social Science Research Center Berlin, BERLIN,GERMANY
50. Vukoje Jasna, The World Bank Office, Belgrade
51. Wes Marina, World Bank
322

I
1. Allen Mark, Wijnholds Onno De Beaufort, Fanelli Jose Maria, Ffrench-Davis
Ricardo, Lischinsky Bernardo, Ocampo Jose Antonio, Rodrik Dani, Studart Rogerio,
The Crisis That Was Not Prevented: Lessons gor Argentina, the IMF, and
Globalisation, FONDAD, The Hague, January 2003.
2. Aryeetey Ernest, Bargawi Hannah, Bhattacharya, Bird Graham, Claessens, Culpeper
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, , http://www.nsz.gov.rs/
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4.7. (MDRI) ......................................... 84

THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IN

KEY WORDS: The International Monetary Fund, Articles of Agreement, Republic

/ (African Development Fund)

(Extended Fund Facility)

(International Development Association)

/ (mortgage backed security)

(Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief Trust)

: Martinez-Diaz, 2008. ( -: Governance Structure)

: IMF, IMF Annual Report 2009, IMF Organization Chart, . 77

*IMF: Press Release No. 10/434, November 15, 2010.

: IMF, IMF Standing Borrowing Arrangements, September 29, 2010

: IMF, IMF Standing Borrowing Arrangements, September 29, 2010.

: IMF, IMF Finance Department, 2010.

1 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014.

: IMF, The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, March 9, 2010.

MM- MDRI 15. 2009.

4.8. (Emergency assistance)

4.9. (PCDR Trust)

- (Signed IMF agreements)

: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.

92,7 1.734, 878,8 307,5 198,0

: Independent Evaluation Office (IEO), The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001,

: Independent Evaluation Office - IMF, The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001,

: Economist Inteligence Unit, The Economist, 10 April 2006.

: William Gruben, John Welch, 2001, . 17, : Mexico: Instituto Nacional

. 1942. , John Maynard Keynes

. ( , , South-East Europe Review, 3/2009,

2,7% 2010. 2,2 %

: Eurostat; Haver Analytics; -

: Eurostat; Haver Analytics; -

: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2010.

: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook Europe, Building Confidence, October 2010.

: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook - Europe, Building Confidence, .61

: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1988 1989. ) 1990-

X = x/n = 850/6 = 141,7 ( -

: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.

: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.

1992. 2000. 2001.

15,25 16,07 15,84

13,60 16,09 18,26

n/a 12,10 12,20

2005. 2008. 2009. 2010.

: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.

x = x/n = 850/6 = 141,67 ( -

15.521 19.865 = 0,16

x = x/n = 2171/10 = 217,1 ( -

797.199 56.199.642 = 0,2263

2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007.

71,44 75,84 80,12 81,48 81,66 79,35 76,01 72,91

241,65 114,49 81,21 77,28 65,20 56,29 43,03 35,24

2008. 2009.* 2010.*

: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.

n/a 70,00 91,80 19,50 11,70 10,10 17,26

: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.

20,77 21,46 15,78 13,66 10,88 12,68

: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010.

15.521 5.073 = 0,348

: James Boughton, 2001, . 577

(1966), (1967), (1970),

PRGT / ESAF / SAF / Trust Fund

CCFF (Buffer Stock)