GDP

Ho: GDP is I(3)

Ha: GDP is I(2) or I(1) or I(0)

Null Hypothesis: D(GDP,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.585959 0.0041

Test critical values: 1% level -4.234972
5% level -3.540328
10% level -3.202445

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(GDP,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:06
Sample (adjusted): 1974 2009
Included observations: 36 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(GDP(-1),2) -1.753426 0.382347 -4.585959 0.0001

D(GDP(-1),3) 0.637659 0.245762 2.594621 0.0142
C 1.22E+09 9.73E+08 1.251196 0.2199
@TREND(1970) -40308995 40873108 -0.986198 0.3314

R-squared 0.453472 Mean dependent var -3.17E+08

Adjusted R-squared 0.402235 S.D. dependent var 3.27E+09
S.E. of regression 2.53E+09 Akaike info criterion 46.24642
Sum squared resid 2.05E+20 Schwarz criterion 46.42237
Log likelihood -828.4356 F-statistic 8.850487
Durbin-Watson stat 1.551952 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000204

RHO.
Ho: GDP is I(2)
Ha: GDP is I(1) or I(0)

Null Hypothesis: D(GDP) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.069738 0.5455

Test critical values: 1% level -4.219126
5% level -3.533083
10% level -3.198312

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(GDP,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:07
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2009
Included observations: 38 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(GDP(-1)) -0.558957 0.270062 -2.069738 0.0459

C -4.22E+08 1.10E+09 -0.384437 0.7030
@TREND(1970) 1.93E+08 1.21E+08 1.594425 0.1198

R-squared 0.141411 Mean dependent var 36863005

Adjusted R-squared 0.092349 S.D. dependent var 2.65E+09
S.E. of regression 2.52E+09 Akaike info criterion 46.20998
Sum squared resid 2.23E+20 Schwarz criterion 46.33926
Log likelihood -874.9896 F-statistic 2.882280
Durbin-Watson stat 1.266437 Prob(F-statistic) 0.069381

NRHO. Is I(2)
Null Hypothesis: D(INTEREST_GDP,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.767385 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.808546
5% level -3.020686
10% level -2.650413

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INTEREST_GDP,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:19
Sample (adjusted): 1975 1994
Included observations: 20 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(INTEREST_GDP(-1),2) -5.237187 0.773886 -6.767385 0.0000

D(INTEREST_GDP(-1),3) 2.392243 0.581464 4.114172 0.0008
D(INTEREST_GDP(-2),3) 0.729098 0.250535 2.910164 0.0102
C 0.254936 0.095119 2.680193 0.0164

R-squared 0.967260 Mean dependent var 0.001658

Adjusted R-squared 0.961122 S.D. dependent var 2.025757
S.E. of regression 0.399430 Akaike info criterion 1.179299
Sum squared resid 2.552706 Schwarz criterion 1.378445
Log likelihood -7.792988 F-statistic 157.5686
Durbin-Watson stat 2.320836 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
RHO

1º sample. 1970 - 1994

Null Hypothesis: D(INTEREST_GDP) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.026751 0.9451

Test critical values: 1% level -3.808546
5% level -3.020686
10% level -2.650413

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INTEREST_GDP,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:20
Sample (adjusted): 1975 1994
Included observations: 20 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(INTEREST_GDP(-1)) -0.008010 0.299436 -0.026751 0.9790

D(INTEREST_GDP(-1),2) -1.838104 0.338319 -5.433054 0.0001
D(INTEREST_GDP(-2),2) -1.659029 0.387130 -4.285455 0.0007
D(INTEREST_GDP(-3),2) -0.727979 0.262103 -2.777451 0.0141
C 0.258450 0.164009 1.575821 0.1359

R-squared 0.883137 Mean dependent var 0.048074

Adjusted R-squared 0.851974 S.D. dependent var 1.072197
S.E. of regression 0.412519 Akaike info criterion 1.279251
Sum squared resid 2.552584 Schwarz criterion 1.528184
Log likelihood -7.792511 F-statistic 28.33886
Durbin-Watson stat 2.318161 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001

NRO. Is I(2)

2ª sample. 1994 2009

Null Hypothesis: D(INTEREST_GDP,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=3)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.577750 0.0001

Test critical values: 1% level -4.667883
5% level -3.733200
10% level -3.310349

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 16

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INTEREST_GDP,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:25
Sample: 1994 2009
Included observations: 16

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(INTEREST_GDP(-1),2) -1.634457 0.215692 -7.577750 0.0000

C -0.702642 0.343311 -2.046664 0.0615
@TREND(1994) 0.079533 0.038868 2.046236 0.0615

R-squared 0.815779 Mean dependent var 0.042605

Adjusted R-squared 0.787437 S.D. dependent var 1.473957
S.E. of regression 0.679561 Akaike info criterion 2.232622
Sum squared resid 6.003443 Schwarz criterion 2.377482
Log likelihood -14.86097 F-statistic 28.78370
Durbin-Watson stat 1.515844 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000017

Rho.
Null Hypothesis: D(INTEREST_GDP) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=3)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.147181 0.0247

Test critical values: 1% level -4.667883
5% level -3.733200
10% level -3.310349

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 16

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INTEREST_GDP,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:26
Sample: 1994 2009
Included observations: 16

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(INTEREST_GDP(-1)) -0.614516 0.148177 -4.147181 0.0020

D(INTEREST_GDP(-1),2) 0.013797 0.141942 0.097202 0.9245
D(INTEREST_GDP(-2),2) 0.308982 0.144308 2.141137 0.0579
D(INTEREST_GDP(-3),2) -0.261362 0.114034 -2.291956 0.0449
C -0.754477 0.167816 -4.495860 0.0012
@TREND(1994) 0.058711 0.020162 2.911920 0.0155

R-squared 0.907997 Mean dependent var -0.048402

Adjusted R-squared 0.861995 S.D. dependent var 0.841982
S.E. of regression 0.312788 Akaike info criterion 0.793416
Sum squared resid 0.978365 Schwarz criterion 1.083137
Log likelihood -0.347326 F-statistic 19.73830
Durbin-Watson stat 2.739464 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000069

Rho

Null Hypothesis: INTEREST_GDP has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=3)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.293678 0.9824

Test critical values: 1% level -4.667883
5% level -3.733200
10% level -3.310349

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 16

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INTEREST_GDP)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:26
Sample: 1994 2009
Included observations: 16

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

INTEREST_GDP(-1) -0.063227 0.215294 -0.293678 0.7750

D(INTEREST_GDP(-
1)) 0.243956 0.160514 1.519846 0.1595
D(INTEREST_GDP(-
2)) 0.524555 0.145177 3.613215 0.0047
D(INTEREST_GDP(-
3)) -0.488709 0.205196 -2.381670 0.0385
C 0.038066 2.368907 0.016069 0.9875
@TREND(1994) 0.010808 0.109282 0.098899 0.9232

R-squared 0.789452 Mean dependent var -0.404800

Adjusted R-squared 0.684179 S.D. dependent var 0.684453
S.E. of regression 0.384649 Akaike info criterion 1.207023
Sum squared resid 1.479546 Schwarz criterion 1.496744
Log likelihood -3.656187 F-statistic 7.499041
Durbin-Watson stat 2.093380 Prob(F-statistic) 0.003636

NRHO. Is I(1).
Null Hypothesis: D(DISBURSEMENTS,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.009556 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.234972
5% level -3.540328
10% level -3.202445

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(DISBURSEMENTS,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:35
Sample (adjusted): 1974 2009
Included observations: 36 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(DISBURSEMENTS(-1),2) -2.240691 0.279752 -8.009556 0.0000

D(DISBURSEMENTS(-1),3) 0.442156 0.159567 2.770967 0.0092
C -0.053167 0.815311 -0.065210 0.9484
@TREND(1970) 0.012800 0.034201 0.374265 0.7107

R-squared 0.821620 Mean dependent var 0.009770

Adjusted R-squared 0.804896 S.D. dependent var 4.815268
S.E. of regression 2.126929 Akaike info criterion 4.451675
Sum squared resid 144.7625 Schwarz criterion 4.627621
Log likelihood -76.13014 F-statistic 49.13065
Durbin-Watson stat 1.899281 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

RHO

Null Hypothesis: D(DISBURSEMENTS) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.377120 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.219126
5% level -3.533083
10% level -3.198312

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(DISBURSEMENTS,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:35
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2009
Included observations: 38 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(DISBURSEMENTS(-1)) -1.099884 0.172473 -6.377120 0.0000

C 1.013298 0.662383 1.529777 0.1351
@TREND(1970) -0.011669 0.027693 -0.421373 0.6761

R-squared 0.537877 Mean dependent var 0.076028

Adjusted R-squared 0.511470 S.D. dependent var 2.662821
S.E. of regression 1.861177 Akaike info criterion 4.155952
Sum squared resid 121.2393 Schwarz criterion 4.285235
Log likelihood -75.96309 F-statistic 20.36868
Durbin-Watson stat 1.949818 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001

RHO

Null Hypothesis: DISBURSEMENTS has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.774265 0.6979
Test critical values: 1% level -4.211868
5% level -3.529758
10% level -3.196411

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(DISBURSEMENTS)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/07/10 Time: 19:37
Sample (adjusted): 1971 2009
Included observations: 39 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

DISBURSEMENTS(-1) -0.155921 0.087879 -1.774265 0.0845

C 4.802579 2.311299 2.077870 0.0449
@TREND(1970) 0.093154 0.061754 1.508461 0.1402

R-squared 0.082150 Mean dependent var 0.695092

Adjusted R-squared 0.031158 S.D. dependent var 1.800687
S.E. of regression 1.772412 Akaike info criterion 4.056363
Sum squared resid 113.0920 Schwarz criterion 4.184330
Log likelihood -76.09909 F-statistic 1.611042
Durbin-Watson stat 1.992646 Prob(F-statistic) 0.213744

NRHO. Is I(1)