Predicting the Future Introduction: Predicting future weather is not as easy as you might think. The atmosphere is constantly changing, and that makes it cifficult to figure out what is going to happen next. For the coming weeks, you are going to become a meteorologist. You will leara the basics of weather dats collection and how different pro- cesses effect weather changes. As we move through the unit, you will bo making your own weather forecast for Creedmoor NC. Lets see how accurate you can be! Step 1: You will monitor certain espects of the weather for at least 8 days within the next few weeks, You will be taking the data 3 times each day. Once in the moming, once during class, and once in the evening. Try to keap the times for each day relatively close to each other so that comparison is moze accurate. Data taken in the morning and evening can be done by using a local weather station or websitelapp. Please use the same ‘weather provider cach time for consistency. Data curing class will be taken by a student(s) and will be distributed to the class. Also, for 3 cansecutive days, you will be keeping track of fronts and their movement in ‘NC and surrounding regions. Looks at the weather pattems that form and determine how your data is affected! affecis the front movements, This will help you in your forecasting. (WRAL weather, Weather.com, and NO- AA are all acceptable sites/apps to use for weather data.) Step 2: Choose 3 consecutive days and view the future forecast. Log what is supposed to happen, and also og what actually happens. You will then analyze the difference and try to determine why it was/was not the same as the prediction. What do you think were processes that may have effected the changes? Step 3: Using current weather data that I give you from en unknown year and aa unknown location in NC, you will create a 2 day forccast, and a3 day foreeast for the following days, The 2 day forecast will include models of front movements, and the 3 day forecast will include high and low temperature, weather, and other ‘weather data, Use data from previous years, and current weather conditions to help you prediet what might happen for the 3 days Step 4; Green Screen. This is the fun part. Create a video of your weather forecast! You will use your data to create a weather forecast to present to the class, The group with the most accurate forecast will win a prize Step 5: Reflect. How accurate were you? What did you predict corrcetly’? What did you get wrong? Tell us, why. L will NOT be grading for accuracy, however T will be looking for the following: + The Scientific background for your forecast + Does your forecast apply to the timeline assigned? + How well does the forecast fit the region? Season? [s it something someone in Creedmoor would expect? How well docs it fit the history and pattems for NC2 *eOQOOQE DS B&HAOD ue) LOWE, yuasatg uonepdpargy jutod ao, dd WoRDeTIP ypaads puis oe dwg, au, areaStep 1, Part 2: Keep track of front movement 2 times each dey for 3 days, You will use this data along with the information from step 1 part 1 to look at how big systems effect regional weather. Draw the fronts and iso- line date on the maps provided, make sure to inelude wind directions as well Date:, fines, Time: alStep 1, Part the information fiom step 1 part 1 ta look at how big systems effect regional weather. Draw the fronts and iso- line data on the maps provided, make sure to include wind directions as well ep track of front movement 2 times cach day for 3 days. You will use this data along with Date, Time: Time: LStep 1, Part 2: Keep track of front movernent 2 times each day for 3 days. You will use this data along with the information from step 1 part 1 to look at how big systems effect regional weather. Draw the fronts and iso- line data on the maps provided, make sure to include wind directions as well. iy <| <Step 2: Find the forecast predictions for 3 consecutive days, then keep track of what actually happens, Analyze why you think the changes occurred. Date: ‘What was supposed to happen ‘What actually happened ‘Why?Step 3, part 1:2 Day Forecast For this forecast, you will need to include the following 1. Dates for forecast (remember this is a future forecast) 2. 2 Front maps with isolines 3. Percent chance of percipitaion and time it might happen 4. A description of what the day might look Tike Step 3. Part 1. Must be same firsi 2 days with a third day added day forecast High and low temperature for the day 5. Picture of what the majority of the day will look like 4. You will need to be creative with the (Feels like, and current temperature) but it should still be within the high and Jow temperature for that day. tone Pare rein cere Teday | [—Sund corm) ee a Remember: You are NOT being graded on accuracy, however it should be in the realm of what would be expected for spring time in NC.Step 4: Complete your forecast video. You will be using the green sereen to predict your forecas need the drawing for the fronts and create the 3 day forecast, All of these should be completed digitally so that it can be put as the background of the video. You may do this by hand as well but you will need to take pictures for the forecast video. You will Step 5: Reflections, Answer the questions below IN FULL. You are analyzing your accu con what you did y and reflecting 1, How accurate were you? 2, What did you predict correctly? 3. What did you get wrong? Why? . What problemns/difficultics did you encounter when making your weather predictions? 5, Was anything easNames: * r Rubric (Student Copy Expectation: Points: Step 1: Are there 8 days of weather collection? Are there 3 consecutive days of front data? AS Step 2: Is the log compieted in full? Has the data comparison of the forecast prediction and — | As what actually happened analyzed? Step 3: Was there a 2 day fronts forecast and a three day temperature and weather conditions forecast put together? Does the forecast apply to the timeline assigned? How well does the forecast fit the region? How well does it fit the history and pattems for NC? Was there a seien- tific basis to the forecast ereated? po Step 4: Does the video include the 2 day forecast and 3 day forecast’? 110 Step 5: Were the reflections answered in full? Did the student try to analyze their forecast? 10 Was it tuned in on time? 120 Names: 4 # Rubric (Teacher Copy Expectation: Points: Step 1: Are there 8 days of weather collection? Are there 3 consecutive days of front data? AS Step 2: Is the log completed in full? Has the data comparison of the forecast prediction and 5 what actually happened analyzed’? Step 3: Was there a 2 day fronis forecast and a three day temperature and weather conditions forecast put together? Does the forecast apply to the timeline assigned” How well does the forecast fit the region? How well does it fit the history and patterns for NC? Was there a seien- tific basis to the forecast created? BD, Step 4: Does the video include the 2 day forecast and 3 day forecast? AO Step 5: Were the reflections answered in full? Did the student try to analyze their forecast? AD ‘Was it tuned in on lime? 20