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Avian Influenza (H5N1) Expert System Using Dempster-Shafer Theory
Avian Influenza (H5N1) Expert System Using Dempster-Shafer Theory
I.
INTRODUCTION
ISSN:2088-5520
II.
C2-93
Step 1
Start
Representation of uncertainty
on the set of basic events
Alternative Rule
Yes
Symptoms
Step 2
Input
m1 (B) m2 (C)
Step 3
No
Conclusion
m (A) = 1
End
DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY
ISSN:2088-5520
C2-94
Where
(4)
Knowledge Acquisition
Knowledge Base
Inference Engine
User Interface
ISSN:2088-5520
C2-95
0.747 0.153
0.9
1 0
0.0581 0.0249
m5 (AI, ND, FC) =
0.083
1 0
m5 (AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS) =
0.0119
0.0119
1 0
m5 (AI) =
m5 () =
B. Symptom 2
Combs, wattle, bluish face region are symptoms of
Avian Influenza with a bpa of 0.9, so that:
m2{AI} = 0.9
m2 {} = 1 0.9 = 0.1
(6)
With the symptoms comb, wattle, bluish face region
then required to calculate the new bpa values for some
combinations (m3). Combination rules for the m3 can be
seen in the Table II.
TABLE II. COMBINATION OF SYMPTOM 1 AND SYMPTOM 2
0.0051
0.0051
1 0
(9)
D. Symptom 4
Narrowness of eyes is a symptom of Swollen Head
Syndrome with a bpa of 0.9, so that:
m6 (SHS) = 0.9
m6 () = 1 0.9 = 0.1
(10)
With narrowness of eyes in the absence of symptoms
then required to recalculate the new bpa values for each
subset with bpa m7. Combination rules for m7 can be seen
in Table IV.
TABLE IV. COMBINATION OF SYMPTOM 1, SYMPTOM 2, SYMPTOM 3,
AND SYMPTOM 4
m3 (AI) =
0.63 0.27
0.9
1 0
0.03
0.03
m3 () =
1 0
0.07
0.07
1 0
m7 (SHS) =
0.01071 0.00459
0.13270
1 (0.81 0.0747)
(7)
m7 (AI) =
C. Symptom 3
Swollen face region is a symptom of
Avian
Influenza, Newcastle Disease, Fowl Cholera with a bpa
of 0.83, so that
m4 {AI, ND, FC} = 0.83
m4 () = 1 0.83= 0.17
(8)
With the symptom of swollen face region then
required to calculate the new bpa values for each subset.
Combination rules for the m5 can be seen in Table III.
TABLE III. COMBINATION OF SYMPTOM 1, SYMPTOM 2, AND SYMPTOM
3
0.09
0.78057
1 (0.81 0.0747)
0.0083
0.07199
1 (0.81 0.0747)
IBRepro,
0.00051
0.00442
1 (0.81 0.0747)
SHS)
(11)
E. Symptom 5
Balance disorders is a symptom of Newcastle
Diseases and Swollen Head Syndrome with a bpa of 0.6,
so that:
m8 {ND,SHS} = 0.6
m8 {} = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4
(12)
ISSN:2088-5520
C2-96
m9 (SHS) =
m9 (ND) =
0.07962 0.05308
0.24960
1 0.46834
V.
0.00619 0.00265
0.01663
1 0.46834
0.02880
0.05417
1 0.46834
IBRepro,
0.000232
0.00025
1 0.061038
IMPLEMENTATION
0.04319
0.08124
1 0.46834
m9 (ND, SHS) =
m9 () =
0.31222
0.58725
1 0.46834
m9 (AI) =
SHS)
(13)
ISSN:2088-5520
C2-97
VI.
CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
[1]. B. L. Ligon, Avian Influenza Virus H5N1:
A
Review of Its History and Information
Regarding Its Potential to Cause the Next
Pandemic, Seminars in Pediatric Infectious
Diseases, Elsevier, pp. 326 335, 2005.
ISSN:2088-5520
C2-98