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ConfidenceIntervalProject

...
Whatisthetruepopulationmeannumberofbooks
completedbyLASAseniorsforEnglishclassesthroughouthigh
school?

...
byKateStankiewicz
1/24/16
period6

Ihadjustgottentoastoppingpointinournewenglishassignment,
PrideandPrejudice
.
Isnapchattedafriendwhotoldmethattheyhadyettostartit,eventhoughthefirst16chapters
wereduethenextmorningforhisclass.IhaverecentlyrealizedthatIamamongthefewwho
actuallyreadmostoftheassignedbooksforourEnglishclasses.Istartedtowonderwhatthe
truemeannumberofbookscompletedbyseniorswas.Ithinkthatstudentscompletemuchfewer
booksthanEnglishteachersexpect.Althoughwecannotfullyconvincethemwevereadevery
assignment,studentsseemtostilldeceivetheteachers.IcanrelatetothistopiceasilybecauseI
amaseniorwhosbeenassignedmanypiecesofliteraturetoreadandhavetakenpartinthe
readingofSparknotes.
ThepopulationofmystudyisonlyLASAseniors,becauseseniorsfromotherschools
mayhavehadadifferentnumberofbookstheyshouldveread.Icollectedmydatabycreatinga
numberedlistoftheseniorstudents,thenusingarandomnumbergeneratortoselect35students.
Beforeaskingthemthequestions,Icreatedalistofthe24bookswewererequiredtoread
throughoutourfouryearsofhighschooltohelpthemrememberwhichtheyhaveorhavenot
read.Ithenaskedthemhowmanyoftheassignedbookstheydfinishedandrecordtheir
response.However,theseproceduresmaynothaveleadtoacompletelyaccuratesampleofthe
populationbecausesomestudentsIcontactedthroughFacebookdidnotrespond,soIhadto
randomlyselectanewstudenttoanswerthisquestion.TherewasalsoonestudentIselectedwho
didnthaveFacebook,andIhadnootherwaytocontacthim.Athirdwaythissamplemaynot
representthepopulationisthattherandomnumbergeneratorrepeatedafewofthenumbers,but
Icouldntcountthatstudentmorethanonce.

Bylookingatthegraphs,youcantellthatasthesamplesizeincreases,thevariance
decreases,meaningthatthegraphgetsnarrowerandmorenormal,centeredatthetruepopulation
mean.Thesamplepopulationmeanofthenumberofbookscompletedbyseniorsis13.60and
thestandarddeviationis5.67.Iam90%confidentthatthetruepopulationmeanofthenumber
ofbookscompletedbyseniorsisbetween11.98and15.22.Thestandarderroris1.62.Iam95%
confidentthatthetruepopulationmeanofthenumberofbookscompletedbyseniorsisbetween
11.65and15.55.Thestandarderroris1.95.Iam98%confidentthatthetruepopulationmeanof
thenumberofbookscompletedbyseniorsisbetween11.26and15.94.Thestandarderroris
2.34.Astheconfidencelevelincreases,theintervalhastobecomelargertootoaccountformore
rangeinthesamplemeansandhigherstandarderror.
ThisshowsthatLASAseniorsgenerallycompletedbetween11and16booksthroughout
theirfouryearsofhighschoolEnglishclasses.Thetotalnumberofbooksrequiredtoreadwas
24.Thismeansthattheaveragestudentreadabouthalfofthebooks.Iexpectedmypeersto
actuallyreadmuchmorethanthat,around2/3ofthebooks,butIthinkteachersexpecteven
more.

AppendixA

AppendixB
>hist(Books$Completed,main="BooksCompleted",xlab="NumberofBooks",
ylab="Frequency")
>mean(Books$Completed)
[1]13.6
>sd(Books$Completed)
[1]5.668281
>xbar5<rep(NA,1000)
>for(iin1:1000){
+x<sample(Books$Completed,size=5)
+xbar5[i]<mean(x)
+}
>hist(xbar5,xlim=c(0,25),main="SampleSize5",xlab="NumberofBooks")
>mean(xbar5)
[1]13.497
>sd(xbar5)
[1]2.382332
>sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(5)
[1]2.534932
>xbar15<rep(NA,1000)
>for(iin1:1000){
+x<sample(Books$Completed,size=15)
+xbar15[i]<mean(x)
+}
>hist(xbar15,xlim=c(0,25),main="SampleSize15",xlab="NumberofBooks")
>mean(xbar15)
[1]13.55913
>sd(xbar15)
[1]1.157274
>sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(15)
[1]1.463544
>xbar25<rep(NA,1000)
>for(iin1:1000){
+x<sample(Books$Completed,size=25)
+xbar25[i]<mean(x)
+}
>hist(xbar25,xlim=c(0,25),main="SampleSize25",xlab="NumberofBooks")
>mean(xbar25)
[1]13.61824
>sd(xbar25)
[1]0.5981862

>sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(25)
[1]1.133656
>mean(Books$Completed)1.691*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]11.97983
>mean(Books$Completed)+1.691*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]15.22017
>mean(Books$Completed)2.032*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]11.65311
>mean(Books$Completed)+2.032*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]15.54689
>mean(Books$Completed)2.441*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]11.26124
>mean(Books$Completed)+2.441*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]15.93876
>1.691*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]1.620171
>2.032*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]1.946888
>2.441*(sd(Books$Completed)/sqrt(35))
[1]2.338757

AppendixC
(insteadofsignatures)

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