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. 30 ,

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36 .
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( 1);
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2.

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2.4.

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1.
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3.

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3.1.


%

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30
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160
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[33]

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3.2 ;
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[34]

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3.2.

3.3.

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[35]

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, = + , : C= Q2*H+ DQ*O
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[36]

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5.000 .
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EOQ :

5.000 (Q=5.000) :
C=Q2*H+DQ*O= 5.0002*0,5+20.0005.000*20=1.330 .
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C=EOQ2*H+DEOQ*O= 1.2652*0,5+20.0001.265*20=632 .
1.330 - 632 = 698 .

3.2.2

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[38]

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3.2.

128

120

106

102

118

116

109

114

125

108

111

124

114

112

107

122

117

120

119

118

10

134

117

119

11

132

121

121

12

126

129

123

13

131

128

14

129

131

15

126

129

4 F4=(128+120+106)/3=118, 5
F5=(120+106+102)/3=109, .
3 . , 5
F5=(128+120+106+102)/4=114, 6 F6=(120+106+102+116)/4=111,
. 4 .
F13 = 131, F14 = 129 F15=126 3 F13 = 128, F14 = 131 F15=129 4 .
: 3 4 .

[39]

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3.5.

3 2 4
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.
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3 . .
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:
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[41]

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3.3.

128

120

106

102

116

125

124

107

0,05

120

0,10

10

134

0,15

11

132

0,30

12

126

0,40

:
F13 = 0,40 * 126 + 0,3 * 132 + 0,15 * 134 + 0,10 * 120 + 0,05 * 107 = 127

.
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2.  (t),
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[43]

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. 6

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7 .

3.4.

128

120

106

102

116

125

:
1.
2
2
2
. =
= = 0, 3.
=
6 +1 7
N+1
2. :

128

128

120

106

102

116

125

3 . :

[44]

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128

128

120

= 128+0,3 *(128-128) =

128

106

= 128+0,3 *(120-128) =

125,60

102

= 125,60+0,3 *(106-125,60) =

119,72

116

= 119,72+0,3 *(102-119,72) =

114,40

125

= 114,40+0,3 *(116-114,40) =

114,88

= 114,88+0,3 *(125-114,88) =

118

.
.

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).
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Y: ,
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.
6 .
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3.5.

128

120

106

102

116

125

:
, :
(X)

1
2
3
4
5
6

3,5

x
(Y)
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1
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106
16
102
25
116
36
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116,17

x
(X x Y)
128
240
318
408
580
750

2424

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, : =+ =112,95 - 0,93* .

6 , :

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

112
111
110
109
108
107
106

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[48]

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 ;
 ;

. . :
Et = At Ft
:
Et: t,
At: t,
Ft: t.
,


.
, :
 (Mean Absolute Deviation, MAD), /
 (Mean Squared Error, MSE).
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:
At: t,
Ft: t,
n: .

[49]

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. , MAD / MSE
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:

3.6. MAD MSE

.


1
12
2
14
3
15
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10

12
16
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12
14

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18
16
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10
11

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12
2
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10

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12
14

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10
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16
14

12
15
14
10
11

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4
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1
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.

1
12
2
14
3
15
4
11
5
10

12
16
13
12
14

13
12
10
15
18
14
16
10
14
11

0
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0
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4
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2
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||

0
1
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MAD :

MAD .
MAD ( ) MSE
. :
.

|| 2

12

12

13 12

-1 0

14

16

10 15

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4 -1

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14

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MSE.

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3.3 ;

: ;.
.

3.3.1
(Economic Order Quantity
EOQ) (Time Between Orders, TBO). ,
.

.
TBO Q :

EOQ :

,
Q: ,
EOQ: ,
D: .

EOQ.

Q. : 20 , () 0,5 / 20.000 . Logistics
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. , (OQ) 5.000 (Q)
Logistics.

[52]

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Logistics
250 .
:

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.
(
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[53]

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1.
 , ,...,

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()
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5.200
78.000
26.000
26.000
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()
6
4
6
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.

1
2
3
4
5

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220
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;

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4.
 : .
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1
2
3
4
5
6

5
6
7
6
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1
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4.
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.),
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. ,
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40.000

50.000

70.000

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5
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10.000) . 7.000 .
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.
:
40.000 + 9Q = 50.000 +5Q 4Q = 10.000 Q = 2.500 .,
:
50.000 + 5Q = 70.000 +2Q 3Q = 20.000 Q = 6.667 .
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.

.

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( 4.2 4.3).
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).

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d(ki)=|x - ai| + |y - bi|
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x y . [60]

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, .
, .
;

4.4.

:
1: (x1, y1)=(4, 5)
2: (x2, y2)=(2, 2)
3: (x3, y3)=(5, 3)
,
[qi]=[8, 6, 10]. ,
8 , 6 10
.
x
i=1, 2, 3:

[61]

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, x1 ( ).
y j=1, 2, 3:

, y3 ( ).
, (4,3) 22+22=44.

4.2
() .
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( ) :
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.
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,
. .
 .
.
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. () :

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[63]

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 Cube-per-order (CPO) :
/
,
. (
) .
1, 2, 3, 4 5
3, .

4.2.

1
2
3
4
5

18
12
15
9
45

19000
48000
9500
46000
13000

1600
48000
10000
37000
2700

, CPO. :
, CPO . ,
(
250 ).

. , Cubeper-order
. :
.
().
Cube-per-order.

[64]

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4.3.
.


CPO









1
2
3
4
5

18
12
15
9
45

19000
48000
9500
46000
13000

1600
48000
10000
37000
2700

76
192
38
184
52

28800
576000
150000
333000
121500

379
3000
3947
1810
2337

4.4.



Cube-per-order

2, 4, 3, 5, 1
2, 4, 1, 5, 2
1, 4, 5, 2, 3

4.3

, . 60%
50%
.
:
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.

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[93]

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