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TheassassinationofArchdukeFranzFerdinandwasashockingeventinhistoryandis

consideredtheeventthatsparkedthefirstworldwar,butwhatifthisassassinationhadnot
takenplace?WouldWorldWaroneneverhavehappened?Wouldsomethingelsetriggerthe
conflict?Todaywewilllookatthemostpossibleoutcomes.
WhenArchdukeFranzFerdinandwasassassinated,tensionswerealreadyhigh
betweenSerbiaandAustriaHungary,andmanyeventscouldhavesparkedaconflictbetween
thetwogroups.Theconflictmaynotevenhavebeensparkedbyaeventbetween
AustriaHungaryandSerbia,butbetweenGermanyandoneofthemanyotherEuropean
countriesinstead.Germanywasadvancingfastandwasquicklybecominganindustrial
powerhouseinEurope.DuetoGermany'ssuccessindevelopingtechnology,theneighbouring
countriessuchasBritainwerebecomingnervousandanunrestwasgrowingbetweenthetwo
groups.ItwasnotonlyBritainthatwerewatchingtheGermans,butmanyothercountriessuch
asRussia,France,Italy,andeventheUnitedStateswerestartingtofeeluncomfortable.
WhentheArchdukewasattackedandkilled,tensionswerehighbetweenthetwo
countriesandevenifhadsurvived,theattackitselfmayhavesparkedaconflict.
IbelievethatthechanceoftheArchdukesurvivingtheattackwereverylow,forthere
wereseveralassailantsinvolvedanditisprobablethatoneoftheirattackswouldhavebeen
fataltothedoomedleader,sotheideathathemayhavesurvived(Unlesshedidnotattendthe
eventhewasheadedtoatall)Isveryunlikelyandimprobable
Therestillisachancethatthewarmaynothavehappened,orwouldbedelayedby
severalyears,duetothefactthattheheirtotheAustroHungarianempire,FranzFerdinand,
wasamanwhobelievedthattheyhadtostriveforpeacebetweenthenations,andif
AustriaHungarywenttowaragainstSerbiaandRussia(WhowasSerbia'sallyatthetime)That
itwouldleadtothedownfallofbothoftheirempires,andhewasright.
TheoneaspectthathadmadetheconflictaWorldWarWasthesubjectofTreaties.If
AustriaHungaryhadneverThreatenedSerbia,therewouldhavebeennoneedforRussiato
cometoSerbia'said,andnoreasonforGermanytocometoAustriaHungary'said,andBritain
andFrancewouldneverhavehadtohonourtheirtreatiesandhelpRussiafight.
SoitseemsthatevenifFranzFerdinandhadlivedthewarcouldnothavebeenavoided,
andwouldprobablyhavehappenedsoonerorlaterbetweenthetwogroupsnomatterwhat
happened.

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