Submitted by:

Aswin Vijayan - EPGPKC/02/07

George Abraham
- EPGPKC/02/13
Nipu Kurup
- EPGPKC/02/23
Nithin K Prakash
- EPGPKC/02/24

Cleaning up of data
As part of cleaning up wherever NA was there for traffic values we got we have updated the values to 0.

Validation of the data

We have validated the data as below
1.

Traffic handled at major ports in 000 tonnes

The model is
total = 0 + 1 Kandla + 2 Mumbai + 3 JLNehru + 4 Mormugao + 5 NewMangalore +
6 Cochin + 7 Tuticorin + 7 Chennai + 7 Visakhapatnam + 7 Paradip + 7
KolkataDockSystem + 7 HaldiaDockComplex + E
Here E should be 0

Model 1: OLS, using observations 1994-2010 (T = 17)

Dependent variable: total
HAC standard errors, bandwidth 1 (Bartlett kernel)
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-ratio
const
2.85525e- 1.45637e-010 0.1961
011
Kandla
1
0
62945469604355.
4922
Mumbai
1
0
59839195438307.
6719
JLNehru
1
0
29748029438941
4.5000
Mormugao
1
3.53883e-013 2825790151385.6
069
NewMangalore
1
3.33934e-013 2994605931516.6
353
Cochin
1
0
24480473570198.
8555
Tuticorin
1
0
35529976880326.
1406
Chennai
1
0
46760473098396.
9609
Visakhapatnam
1
1.23025e-013 8128398372901.9
043
Paradip
1
6.63172e-013 1507904320082.0

p-value
0.8541
<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

<0.0001

***

KolkataDockSyste 1
m
HaldiaDockComple 1
x
Mean dependent var
Sum squared resid
R-squared
F(12, 4)
Log-likelihood
Schwarz criterion

0
0
52124.94
3.23e-21
1.000000
5.87e+33
401.0075
765.1832

867
24606490088000. <0.0001
***
3789
19773389331080. <0.0001
***
3008
S.D. dependent var
32073.14
S.E. of regression
2.84e-11
Adjusted R-squared
1.000000
P-value(F)
6.77e-68
Akaike criterion
776.0150
Hannan-Quinn
774.9383

The inference from the above model is that data collected is correct and total traffic is sum of the traffic from
individual ports.

Models
Model 1- Container traffic, GDP per capita and IIP

Model 1: OLS, using observations 1-17

Dependent variable: Containertraffic
Coefficient

Std. Error

t-ratio

p-value

const

33824.3

1775.15

19.0543

<0.0001

***

GDP

33.3627

0.648117

51.4764

<0.0001

***

Mean dependent var

Sum squared resid
R-squared
F(1, 15)
Log-likelihood
Schwarz criterion

52124.94

S.D. dependent var

32073.14

S.E. of regression

2485.235

0.994371

Adjusted R-squared

0.993996

2649.820

P-value(F)

2.73e-18

Akaike criterion

315.9323

Hannan-Quinn

316.0980

92645924

155.9662
317.5987

Model 3: OLS, using observations 1-17

Dependent variable: Containertraffic

const
IIP
Mean dependent var
Sum squared resid
R-squared
F(1, 15)
Log-likelihood
Schwarz criterion

Coefficient
37695.4
447.47

Std. Error
2360.59
11.1177

52124.94
1.51e+08
0.990825
1619.943
160.1186
325.9037

t-ratio
15.9686
40.2485

S.D. dependent var

S.E. of regression
Adjusted R-squared
P-value(F)
Akaike criterion
Hannan-Quinn

p-value
<0.0001
<0.0001

***
***

32073.14
3172.854
0.990214
1.07e-16
324.2373
324.4029

Both GDP and IIP have a strong relationship to container traffic. But IIP is a subset of GDP
and is relevant for our forecasting purpose. We have proved using 2 stage OLS.

Traffic in tonne for

all port.xlsx

2 Stage OLS

Model 6: TSLS, using observations 1-17