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.

.I

.II

.III
.IV
.V

) + (

.VI ) + (
.VII

les jeux de hasard)

hasard)


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: 11
( 60 10
50 30 .
22
LucaPacioli (1517 -1445)
)

NiccoloTartaglia

(1500 - 1499) " : )(


10

22

)(

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5 4 3 2 1 :

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:

S = {2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12}

12

2 12

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30

32

)(

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[P

F P P P]

F F P P]

[F

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[ 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5]
[1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5] . 10

7 7 7 9 9 9]

[7

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20

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{6 5 4 3 2 1}

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(

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(

xi

P (xi )

xi

xi

pi

.1

( 2 3)

5:
( : 4

23

6
( :

11 10 9 8 7 6 5

. 5

. 4

8 = 2 + 6 =3 + 5

.5

.2(

3 = 5

4 = 6

4 = 7

6 =9

6 =8
5 = 9

5 = 8

5 = 7

6 = 11

6 =10

. 10
( 10 8 2
8

1
5

10
1
10

11
1
10

9
1
5

8
1
5

7
1
5

6
1
10

5
1
10

xi
pi

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
+ + + + + +
= 1
10 10 5 5 5 10 10

= ) P(x

= { x1 x2 L xn }

xn

...

x1

xi

fn

...

f1

fi

pn L p2 p1
= 1

xn

...

x1

xi

pn

...

p1

p i

0 p i 1

W = { x1 x2 L xn }

xi

pi p1 + p2 + L + pn = 1

xn

...

x2

x1

xi

pn

...

p2

p1

pi

. R

p( X = xi ) = pi

* ) (

: ) (

( V R)

xi

2 1 0 :
X

) ( V R)
( R V)

.15

X = 0) p( X = 0)

(.

1
15

=p( X = 0) = p (R R)

8
15
6
=p( X = 2) = p (V V)
15
== 1) = p (V R)

p ( X

xi

6
15

8
15

1
15

pi

( R V)

( V R)

( :

6 . 30

p( X = 0)


.2 1

2
1
=
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=p( X = 0) = p (R R)

16 8
=
30 15

=p( X = 1) = p (( V R ) , ( R V ))
12 2
=
30 5

2
12
30

=p( X = 2) = p(( V V ))

1
16
30

xi

0
2
30

pi

)
(
:

6 . 36

p( X = 0)

. 4
:

4 1
=
36 9

=p( X = 0) = p (R R)

16 4
=
36 9
16 4
=p( X = 2) = p(( V V ))
=

36 9

=p( X = 1) = p (( V R ) , ( R V ))

xi

4
9

4
9

1
9

pi

1 5

5 4 3 2 1

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A B

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.

A B


.1

25 5

25

5 5

125

: A

L 4 L


)
( 4

5 1 5

25
1
=
125 5

25

p(A) =

: B

5 5 2 50

50
2
=
125 5

p(B) =

.2

20 3

20

4 3

60
A

12 1
=
60 5

p(A) =

4 1 3 12

24 2
=
60 5

p(B) =

4 3 2

24

1 5

.1

{ 5 4 3}

.2

.1

2 1

.2

p( X = 3)

X = 3

{ 5 4 3}

2 1

.3

3 2 1 . 6

6
1
=
60 10

p( X = 4)

X = 4

= p( X = 3)

2 1

3 3 2 .18
:

18
3
=
60 10

= p( X = 4)


.3

36 6
=
60 10

= p( X = 5)
5
6
10

3
1
10

4
3
10

xi
pi

.III :

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10
1
10

11
1
10

9
1
5

8
1
5

7
1
5

5
1
10

6
1
10

xi
pi

V = Pi ( xi - m )

i=1

xi

pi

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2 2 1 1 0

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11
1
10

10
1
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9
1
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7
1
5

8
1
5

xi

5
1
10

6
1
10

pi

)
( :

1
[1 5 + 1 6 + 2 7 + 2 8 + 2 9 + 110 + 111] = 8
10

= m = Pi xi
i= 1

Pi ( xi - m )

i=1

= V m =8

xi

11
1
10

10
1
10

9
1
5

8
1
5

7
1
5

6
1
10

5
1
10

pi

xi - m

36

( xi - m )

1
[1 36 + 1 4 + 2 1 + 2 0 + 2 1 + 1 4 + 1 9]= 5, 7
10

=V


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)(
.

3
3
4
4
5
5
6

2
2
3
3
4
4
5

2
2
3
3
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4
5

1
1
2
2
3
3
4

1
1
2
2
3
3
4

0
0
1
1
2
2
3

+
0
1
1
2
2
3

X
2

( xi - m )

m =3

xi - m

xi

1
36

4
36

8
36

10
36

8
36

4
36

1
36

P ( X = xi)

xi - m

( xi - m )

)(
.

Y
2

( xi - m )

xi - m

m = 2, 25

3
0
3
3
6
6
9

2
0
2
2
4
4
6

2
0
2
2
4
4
6

1
0
1
1
2
2
3

1
0
1
1
2
2
3

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
1
2
2
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yi

1
36

4
36

4
36

4
36

8
36

4
36

11
36

P (Y = yi)

6,75

3,75

1,75

3,06 14,06 45,56

2,25 1,25 0,25 0,75


0,56

0,06

1,56

xi - m

2
( xi - m ) 5,06

mx

1
108
= 3
=[1 0 + 4 1 + 8 2 + 10 3 + 8 4 + 4 5 + 1 6 ]
36
36
= 1,83

Pi ( xi - m x)

i=1

= Vx

= mx

my

1
81
[0 11 + 1 4 + 2 8 + 3 4 + 4 4 + 6 4 + 9 1] = = 2, 25
36
36

= 4, 97

= my

- m y

Pi ( xi

i=1

= Vy

.3

Px

i i

= m = p1 x1 + p2 x2 + .....+ pn xn

i= 1

V = Pi ( xi - m )
i=1

= s

( xi - m )

"

." m

) ( x

xi

xi

V = Pi x i2 - m 2
i = 1

xi

xi

xi

xi +

m +

A B

6 10

1 2 3 4
5
6
7
8

4
5
6
7

3
4
5
6

2
3
4
5

1
2
3
4

) (1
).(2

{ 8 7 6 5 4 3 2}
X

.16

{ 10 8 6 4 2 0 2}:

: X =2

4
1 3

3
16

= p ( X =2)

10
1
16

8
2
16

6
3
16

4
4
16

2
3
16

0
2
16

xi

2
1
16

p i

:
7

Pi xi

i= 1
1
[1 ( -2) + 2 0 + 3 2 + 4 4 + 3 6 + 2 8 + 1 10 ]= 4
16

= m
=

) (:

:

16
1
16

12
3
16

14
2
16

10

8
3
16

10
4
16

6
2
16

4
1
16

p i

xi

m = 10 - 6 = 4 :

{ 10 8 6 4 2 0 2}

.( A

m = m - 4 = 0

6 .

20

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Px

i i

= m = p1 x1 + p2 x2 + .....+ pn xn

i= 1

V = Pi ( xi - m )
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= s
n

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i = 1

xi a

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0,3

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3
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X =10

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X = 1

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5 1 1

9 3 9

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f1 : f2

P1 :

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2

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n - 3

(
(

0,25

.1 pi 0 pi = 1
n

Px

i i

= m

i= 1

V = Pi ( xi - m )
i=1

p ( X = 0) = 1 - (0,3 + 0, 2 + 0, 3) = 0, 2 :

m =1

V = 22

p ( X = 100) = 1 - (0,5 + 0, 2 + 0,15 + 0,1) = 0, 05 :

m = 30

V = 710

p ( X = 6) = 1 - (0, 2 + 0, 4 + 0,1 + 0,1 + 0, 05) = 0,15 :

V =11, 45

.2

m = 0,5

1 2 3 4 5 6
6
2
8
4

5
0
5
0

4
8
2
6

3
6
9
2

2
4
6
8

1
2
3
4

1
2
3
4

: . :

W = { 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 }

24

xi

1
24

1
8

1
6

1
12

1
6

1
12

5
24

1
24

1
12

pi

.1 .3

m = 4,17

V = 6,39

10:
(

1
2

3
10

.2

10 9 90

5 4
90

2
9

8
15

3 2 + 7 6
90


3 2

76

. 3 2 + 7 6

X W = { 0 1 2 }

X = 0
76
7
= p( X = 0)
=
:

90
15

X = 1

3 2
1
=
90
15

2 ( 3 7) 7
=
90
15

X = 2

= p( X = 1)

= p( X = 0)

2
1
15

X
1
7
15

0
7
15

xi
pi

.1 .4

m = 0,6

.2

F F F

F F P
F P F

P
F

F P P
P F F

P
F

P F P
P P F

P
F

P P P

F
F

P
F

W ={ FFF FFP FPF FPP PPP PPF PFP PFF }

.3

.4

4
8

0,5

X
3
1
8

2
3
8

m = 1,5

1
3
8

0
1
8

xi
pi

. .36

.1

.2

6
36

7 = 1+ 6 = 2 + 5 = 3 + 4 = 4 + 3 = 5 + 2 = 6 +1

1
6

. 7
7

.3

6
36

1
6

.4

X W X = { 0 1 2}
Y WY = { 0 1 2 3}

X
2
1
4

VX = 0,5

9
36

1
4

m X = 1

1
1
2

0
1
4

xi
pi

6
6
12
18
24
30
36

5
5
10
15
20
25
30

4
4
8
12
16
20
24

3
3
6
9
12
15
18

2
2
4
6
8
10
12

3
1
9

.1 .6

2
1
3

1
5
36

0
5
12

yi
pi

mY = 1,12

VY = 0, 79
:

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1
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
2
3
4
5
6

4
1 2 3 0 1 2
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3 2 1 0 3 2
0 0 0 0 0 0
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2 0 2 0 2 0

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X W X = { 0 1 2 3}

3
1
114

2
5
38

xi

0
91
228

1
35
76

pi

X = 2

5 4

15

3 15 5 4

. 900

m X = 0,75

VX = 0, 46
.1 .10

10
1
6

.2

1
6

0
4
6

10

xi

1
6

pi

p(6) = 1 - 5 0,12 = 0, 4 :

10

10

xi

0,4

0,48

0,12

pi

.11
.1

pi = 1

.2P ( X 2) = P ( X = 2) + P ( X = 3) + P ( X = 4)
5
P ( X ) = P ( X = 3) + P ( X = 4)
2
P ( X < 1) = P ( X = -1)
.1 .12


.45

X W X ={ 20 25 30}

.2

.3

X
30
2
9

.4
.5

25
5
9

20
2
9

m = 25

V = 11,111

P ( X 25) = P ( X = 25) + P ( X =30) .6


5
2
7
+
=
9
9
9

xi
pi

10 9

.1.13( ) R

(.

10 DA

5 DA

8 D A

4 DA

4 DA

) 3

+ 4 6

4 6

. 27

+ 4 1

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5
27

W W = { - 4 - 5 8 10 }

10
1
27
.4

-5
2
27

8
4
27

-4
20
27

xi
pi

m = -1, 78

.14

pi = 1

.15

3p r 2

p r 2

r 2

5p

p r 2

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f1 P1 S1
f1 P1S2
f1 P2 S1
f1 P2S2
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f 2 P2S2
f 2 P3 S1
f 2 P3S2

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49
100

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49
100

0
42
100

58
100

. - a

-2 a
9
100

xi
pi

4
a
5

9
49
+ 2a
100
100

= - 2a

( 1

.4

= 0,25

49
+ 7 )( n + 7)

(n

5
4

.m
.a

49
+ 7 )( n + 7)

n = 7

(n

.0,25

.VI :

.
.
(1 :

3
1
114

xi

0
1
5
a
pi
114
1
= .a
(
19

2
11
19

7
(
19
1
= .a
(

114
=

.a

( = 0

(2

.a

(1)

( ; 0,55

.m

( ; 1, 24

.m

(3

1 5

( ; 1,55
( ; 1,19

.m

.m

( = 5, 21

.m

( m = - 6

( m = 5
( = 6

.m

(4

0, 45

( 0, 45

( 0, 40

( 0,55

( 0,50

(5 25

15

20

% 60

% 80

.
:

25
(
35
7
.
(

10

12
(
35
24
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(

35

.
.
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(
. 6
(
.
(

3
8

= 1,5

.m

(
.4
(2
(

3 2 2 1 1 1

1 . 3
(

3 2 2 1 1 1

1

(

1
3

3 2 2 1 1 1

3
1
6

2
1
3

1
1
2

xi
pi

3 2 2 1 1 1

m ; 1, 67 :

3 2 2 1 1 1

.
(3
( 3

7 .220

.220
(

7
44

(
5

35
132

35
144

.
(1.

(2.

(4.

.
(3

(5.

(1

(2

(3

.VII :

.1 06)

2 1 1 0

.2 2 1 1

.

.1 :
( .
( .
( .

.2 .

.1

( . X
(

. s

.1

8 7 6 . 336

0,75

2 ( 4 3 2)
336

1
7

0,75

( 3 2 1) + ( 4 3 2)

336

0,75

5
56

6 ( 1 3 4)
336

0,75

3
14

.2

( . X

X = 0 X = 3

4 3 2

. 24

40,25

X = 1 X = 2

3 ( 4 4 3 )

3
1
14

1
3
7

2
3
7

m = 1,5

; 0, 73

. s

.144

0
1
14

xi

pi

20,5

.2 08)

.4 .

.1 :
(
(

.2

( . X
(
. s

2
5
5
5
5
6
6



... .

2
5
5
5
5
6
6

1
4
4
4
4
5
5

1
4
4
4
4
5
5

1
4
4
4
4
5
5

1
4
4
4
4
5
5

+
3
3
3
3
4
4

.1 :
(

16
36

20
36

4
9

5
9

.2

( . X

X = 4 X = 5
X = 6

. 16

.4

6
1
9
(

5
4
9

m = 4, 67

; 0, 44

. s

4
4
9

xi
pi

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